Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

FMG - Fortescue Ltd

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hollowpoint said:
Agreed... but really at the end of the day, it's all just another form of gambling. There is no science or reason when the market is like this.
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So why trade/invest in a market like this? Nothing wrong with waiting for the markets to turn around before entering.
 
Well looks like the company is nearing a market Cap of $5billion. If it goes much lower Mr Forest will be off the Billionaire list alltogether.
 
chops_a_must said:
"Will this become a Grooves II business?"

I've mentioned it before, but it's more likely to become an Anaconda II type business.

My guess is they wont survive the downturn.
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fmg is a business on a bigger scale-

so to really have a good idea on what might happen is a couple of things

what they reckon they will produce- i seen that article saying they are going to downgrade their production-and not go full steam on their expansion plan-

tells me they are smart with their money or they cant get that money up or they are on the edge-

thats 1

and the next one for me would be cutting empolyment hours or getting rid of their employee's

Thats 2

after that-well take it for what it is-
 
Am I being misinformed that this is actually exactly what happened to Andrew Forrest's last venture before FMG?

I seem to recall being told that his last business was pumped up to the max, then crashed in spectacular fashion.

IF that is correct, then you would think he would learn some lessons from it. I think I heard something about too fast an expansion, thus too much debt, and when share price fell, they couldn't service the debt.

Anyone hear something like that, or am I getting my wires crossed?
 
hollowpoint said:
Am I being misinformed that this is actually exactly what happened to Andrew Forrest's last venture before FMG?

I seem to recall being told that his last business was pumped up to the max, then crashed in spectacular fashion.

IF that is correct, then you would think he would learn some lessons from it. I think I heard something about too fast an expansion, thus too much debt, and when share price fell, they couldn't service the debt.

Anyone hear something like that, or am I getting my wires crossed?
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hollowpoint-the story looks like the same everyone knows or heard at one point -so it holds some merit-but for the pure fact u would have to ask forrest himself-

doubt he would give u a honest answer-

if it is true-u would hope that any business owner would learn from their past mistakes-

i surely do as a company owner and i keep making new mistakes-its the nature of the beast-

but like i said in one of my post-it could be just plain bad timing and the current market conditions says it all-

i dont know if they will go broke and dont know if they will go up in price

impossible to tell

but i know for fact that only the strong will weather these conditions usually because they have cash or a small % of debt-

big debt and not much cash in this game is a signal of danger-well for me that is- i know that my business is very quiet but i really have no bills and the repayments i have are easily met in advance-

like i told my freind a couple of weeks ago when he was taking a other loan out

--why are u asking or wanting more money when u cant even meet the first loan repayments??????

tough times ahead with xmas around the corner and stuff-
 
njc.corp said:
hollowpoint-the story looks like the same everyone knows or heard at one point -so it holds some merit-but for the pure fact u would have to ask forrest himself-

doubt he would give u a honest answer-

if it is true-u would hope that any business owner would learn from their past mistakes-

i surely do as a company owner and i keep making new mistakes-its the nature of the beast-

but like i said in one of my post-it could be just plain bad timing and the current market conditions says it all-

i dont know if they will go broke and dont know if they will go up in price

impossible to tell

but i know for fact that only the strong will weather these conditions usually because they have cash or a small % of debt-

big debt and not much cash in this game is a signal of danger-well for me that is- i know that my business is very quiet but i really have no bills and the repayments i have are easily met in advance-

like i told my freind a couple of weeks ago when he was taking a other loan out

--why are u asking or wanting more money when u cant even meet the first loan repayments??????

tough times ahead with xmas around the corner and stuff-
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I am also in business.... but things are great this time of year.... so many companies wanting to get the biggest bang for their buck, so their advertising focuses more online than tv or print. Everyone backs off for a couple of weeks over Xmas though.... just part of doing B2B...

I guess the fundamentals of business should be used to decide where to invest... that is to say, you would be absolutely correct in my opinion. High debt companies/corps would struggle in current markets and low debt and high liquidity businesses would be more attractive to investors.

So going back to absolute business basics, yes, I can't help but think you are 100% correct. So i wonder where this leaves FMG....

Just slightly off topic (ie.. not focused on FMG in particular) I wonder if the following would also be accurate....

1) in tougher economic times, alcohol consumption in Australia increases, as does gambling, prostitution and pharmaceuticals (all used to deal with the extra stress of recessions), therefore,
2) any companies involved in these are going to do well, therefore,
3) companies like FGL, ALL and SOL are going to kick ass in the coming months.

I suppose there is a thread in these forums somewhere that deals with this, but I am too lazy to find it. Anyway, just a random thought...:2twocents
 
hollowpoint said:
I am also in business.... but things are great this time of year.... so many companies wanting to get the biggest bang for their buck, so their advertising focuses more online than tv or print. Everyone backs off for a couple of weeks over Xmas though.... just part of doing B2B...

I guess the fundamentals of business should be used to decide where to invest... that is to say, you would be absolutely correct in my opinion. High debt companies/corps would struggle in current markets and low debt and high liquidity businesses would be more attractive to investors.

So going back to absolute business basics, yes, I can't help but think you are 100% correct. So i wonder where this leaves FMG....

Just slightly off topic (ie.. not focused on FMG in particular) I wonder if the following would also be accurate....

1) in tougher economic times, alcohol consumption in Australia increases, as does gambling, prostitution and pharmaceuticals (all used to deal with the extra stress of recessions), therefore,
2) any companies involved in these are going to do well, therefore,
3) companies like FGL, ALL and SOL are going to kick ass in the coming months.

I suppose there is a thread in these forums somewhere that deals with this, but I am too lazy to find it. Anyway, just a random thought...:2twocents
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hollowpoint i just got off the phone to a freind-he is going back home to work from their-

his business started from home-so the basics holds 100%truth-or is it the smart that run back to basics-

well i hope so as basic is easy to control-control usually cost less in a workforce enviroment from what i have seen and productive force is usally their also-

well i dont drink or have paid much attention to *****'s-but your topic ^^^ is worth thinking and planing out in these market conditions as nothing is silly at the moment-

if u would like to talk more pm me

Thanks

Nick--
 
njc.corp said:
hollowpoint i just got off the phone to a freind-he is going back home to work from their-

his business started from home-so the basics holds 100%truth-or is it the smart that run back to basics-

well i hope so as basic is easy to control-control usually cost less in a workforce enviroment from what i have seen and productive force is usally their also-

well i dont drink or have paid much attention to *****'s-but your topic ^^^ is worth thinking and planing out in these market conditions as nothing is silly at the moment-

if u would like to talk more pm me

Thanks

Nick--
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Easiest way to contact me is at Hollowpoint Pty Ltd.... not sure if we are allowed to mention websites here, so if you search in google, it will be the one that's a web design company.

Yeah, regarding the back to basics and home offices, that's the exact path I went down... thought of expanding to an office, but most clients said they would prefer to deal with a small firm that has no massive overheads if it means I can keep my pricing cheaper yet provide a more comprehensive and personalised service. Perhaps i cannnot sell it down the track, but I would prefer to keep overheads low than to expand at this point in time.

Back on topic, though, my partner works for a company owned by FMG, and of course I get stressed wondering if she will have a job if FMG collapses. Her work was the motivating factor behind my first foray into shares and FMG in particular. Not that I had any inside info (clearly, or I wouldn't have lost so much) but it was just one of those things that everyone warns you against (emotional buying combined with company loyalty). Still, one day things will improve and i will be happy again!
 
Where is Agro ?

One of the earnest believers of FMG ?

Coming to more serious point I do have three colleagues ex Anaconda.

They lost their family fortune by investing on Anaconda by responding to the call made by Andrew to invest in the company where they worked.

I remember about 18 months back Graeme Rowley ex Rio said that Andrew has learnt from his mistake and that gives him confidence.

It was going all good for every one and Andrew (and shareholders / speculators) until Chinese Bomb (or Bubble) Shell on demand reduction exploded.
 
i am still holding fmg as a long term hold everyone is getting belted not just fmg look at rio bhp atlas iron all have been smashed because iron ore demand has fallen when will it hit bottom know one knows but long term if china wants to grow at 8 percent they will need to build a lot of buildings rial lines houses and out of this they will consume a lot of steel and higher demand for iron ore in the long term so guys give fmg a chance look at what they have done in 5 years till now they shipped 10.5 million tones in 5 months that a lot of cash flow their long term goal is 200 mtpa they will get their it will just take time thats the point of being a long term holder to be part of the story fmg has made it big but the story has just started time will tell
 
Just got this weeks BRW in the mail.

Front page is:

Fortescue: Will it survive?

Have not read the article yet but will do so tonight
 
hollowpoint said:
I bought 4,000 shares at $13, $11, $9, etc.... thought I would price average at $5/6... now at $2.03 I'm pretty f$%#ked!

I think I will buy more at $1.60-80, but I thought I had picked the bottom at $5 and how wrong was I on that!
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Let me see if I've got this straight.

You bought at $13. You now concede this was a mistake.
You bought at $11. You now concede this was a mistake.
You bought at $9. You now concede this was a mistake.
You bought at $5/$6. You now concede this was a mistake.

And now you want to buy MORE at $1.60?
 
the way their going they will end up like MGX owned by Chinese and that would relly put the wind up the other two majors in this game Ha Ha Yamsing!!
 
It is amazing how Twwigy Grooves keeps talking FMG up.

He was in China saying that everything is as normal and that Chinese customers are demanding more and more iron ore.

He is risking losing all credibility at this point of the game, but who can blame him when the day come and they admit that demand has effectively slow and that will send the share price lower. I would respect the shareholders and if you can't say the truth just don't say a lie.

WBII
 
Forbes Magazine article, November 17th

I've been researching FMG, planning to jump in at some point soon. Earlier today I stumbled upon the following article from Forbes Magazine (will be in their November 17th issue):

http://www.forbes.com/business/forbes/2008/1117/089.html

The article is about the steel industry in China. Not a very positive article, so I'm thinking that maybe I should wait a bit longer before getting into this stock. Long-term I think FMG will be a big winner, in my opinion.
 
FMG ship was turned back at a chinese port, from the sound of it... not good news I guess.

Here's a thought... for those interested in conspiracy theories...

1) china reduces demand
2) miners panic and get on the phone to find out more
3) china says okay, we could possibly take more, give us a better deal and we will think about it
4) in the interim, china buys up chunks of mining stock while prices are low
5) china sits back and waits, telling australia they can't possibly take any more iron ore
6) miners say okay, here is a better price
6) china eventually says okay, now we can take more
7) china gets better prices AND now owns a chunk of miners for peanuts
8) now that china is buying again, the shares go up, and china makes a killing

just an idea i had. are they devious enough to do this? absolutely. is it in their best interests? absolutely. is there anything we could have done to stop this from happening? absolutely not.

the chinese economy is very very healthy, and it would not be the first time that they have used such a tactic.

thoughts?
 
prawn_86 said:
Just got this weeks BRW in the mail.

Front page is:

Fortescue: Will it survive?

Have not read the article yet but will do so tonight
Click to expand...

Nothing too new in the article, just Twiggy saying that FMG will be fine cause they have agreed contracts in place and dont sell on the spot market and that their 'Rocket Fines' are great for blending and very popular.

Take from it what you want.
 

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