FMG - Fortescue Ltd

[MichaelD]

so i suggest all you doom and gloomers out there look at the fundamentals first, then try and work out a fair entry level.

How about $6.50?

That was a fair entry level put forward 6 months ago.

Of course 6 months ago FMG was trading at $12, so buying $6.50 must have been a bargain, right? After all, FMG ALWAYS goes up after dips, doesn't it? (Except when it doesn't).

$6.50 doesn't seem like much of a bargain any more now that FMG is trading at $2.90.

 

[prawn_86]

How about $6.50?

That was a fair entry level put forward 6 months ago.

Of course 6 months ago FMG was trading at $12, so buying $6.50 must have been a bargain, right? After all, FMG ALWAYS goes up after dips, doesn't it? (Except when it doesn't).

$6.50 doesn't seem like much of a bargain any more now that FMG is trading at $2.90.

It was me that put that level forward, and you'll note it wasnt exact, more of a 'rough' figure.

FA can be dynamic too, and with the markets the way they were the last few months i wouldnt (and hadnt until last week) have bought anything.

Dynamic FA affects of that valuation would include the cooling of IO demand, the expected price drop for IO and the fact that there are now questions surrounding the speed of expansion of FMG, therefore their future earnings.

Also note that the $6.50 valuation was based on very rough (1 min) calculations without any detail involved.

Not defending my analysis, just saying that FA is as dynamic, if not more so, than TA.

 

[agro]

14 million volume today

if one goes through the course of sales you find at least 2-3 orders of 500,000 ($1 million) and 200,000

big buyers moving in or what?

even though its trending side ways?

 

[prawn_86]

big buyers moving in or what?

even though its trending side ways?

Perhaps it's big sellers moving in...

There is always a buy and a sell for every trade so it could be either, it's impossible to tell

 

[SenTineL]

Still a low % move up today, even BHP put on a higher % than FMG, which was unusual a few months back, certainly seems the volatility is easing off

 

[Warren Buffet II]

FMG is a dead company walking.

Prices keep dropping fast and soon they will get very close to the company costs.

I would think FMG will become a uni study company on how an entrepenuer did not have enough time to succeed with a company before the recession hit him hard.

Hellloo? is anyone in here? This forum looks deserted, just like an abandoned mine.

WBII

 

[Sean K]

FMG is a dead company walking.

Prices keep dropping fast and soon they will get very close to the company costs.

I would think FMG will become a uni study company on how an entrepenuer did not have enough time to succeed with a company before the recession hit him hard.

Hellloo? is anyone in here? This forum looks deserted, just like an abandoned mine.

WBII

This all a temporary set back for the IO industry imo. It may take some time, but the rise of Chindia is only part way into the game. Maybe the first day of a test match. Once the recession/depression sorts itself out IO and commods will be back in. So, it's just a matter of time. 2-10 years? Of course, some companies will fail, but it's hard to see FMG totally collapsing, from my armchair. Of course, I hardly know the details of this company, just a pedestrain passing by.

Where is everyone? They're in bed WB. It's 3.30 am on Sat morning!!

 

[chops_a_must]

This all a temporary set back for the IO industry imo. It may take some time, but the rise of Chindia is only part way into the game. Maybe the first day of a test match. Once the recession/depression sorts itself out IO and commods will be back in. So, it's just a matter of time. 2-10 years? Of course, some companies will fail, but it's hard to see FMG totally collapsing, from my armchair. Of course, I hardly know the details of this company, just a pedestrain passing by.

Where is everyone? They're in bed WB. It's 3.30 am on Sat morning!!

Given the collapse of the automobile industry worldwide, I just can't see how IO prices are going to recover anytime soon.

In fact, I would go as far as to say that IO prices are going to fall further than others, given that most resources are already bumping along at production cost, where IO still has some way to go to get there.

 

[Sean K]

Given the collapse of the automobile industry worldwide, I just can't see how IO prices are going to recover anytime soon.

In fact, I would go as far as to say that IO prices are going to fall further than others, given that most resources are already bumping along at production cost, where IO still has some way to go to get there.

I agree they probably will in the short term.

I'm guessing world recovery anywhere between 2-10 years..

So, you think their entire program becomes uneconomical?

I'm trying to work out their assets and it seems in their Ann Report they had $200m in the bank, but $6.8b in liabilities.

Hmmmmm...

 

[sinner]

Where is everyone? They're in bed WB. It's 3.30 am on Sat morning!!

Some of us manage infrastructure 7pm-7am on a Friday night/Sat morning so you can sleep sound. You can show your gratitude by keeping up the posts so we have something to read while making sure all those little LEDs stay green

 

[chops_a_must]

I agree they probably will in the short term.

I'm guessing world recovery anywhere between 2-10 years..

So, you think their entire program becomes uneconomical?

I'm trying to work out their assets and it seems in their Ann Report they had $200m in the bank, but $6.8b in liabilities.

Hmmmmm...

That's the problem really though isn't it?

If prices bump into their production costs, then their debt becomes a massive issue.

At this stage, for me, it wont be time to buy until mining companies start going bust. And at least then, you'll know which ones are going to make it.

Not saying FMG will or wont... just saying... But obviously because of their stage as a company, their risks are much higher in survivability terms.

 

[bloomy88]

That's the problem really though isn't it?

If prices bump into their production costs, then their debt becomes a massive issue.

At this stage, for me, it wont be time to buy until mining companies start going bust. And at least then, you'll know which ones are going to make it.

Not saying FMG will or wont... just saying... But obviously because of their stage as a company, their risks are much higher in survivability terms.

Yeah i totally agree, unfortunately for FMG they hust get the excess demand from bhp and rio. also in their last contract with china they stiched them up on the shipment price, i think 4 times more than it should have been. Now china is making them deliver IO in the next contract for free.
I dont think it's a great idea to piss off china, especially when they will lead the demand for IO as we emerge from this recession...

 

[nunthewiser]

Yes they do have a HUGE amount of debt dont they , pretty sure a chunk of that due to be paid shortly too off the top of my head , its in research. what happens when its FMG turn to be put thru the wash by them crafty chess players out there ? honestly u guys really dont think fmg gunna be the only iron ore co to continue along as normal when the REAL players out there , ie vale etc are gettin the thumbscrews on them ..............i dont think so.....personally think its just yet another plaything for the m,aster chess players out there and they gunna take what they want for the price they want and some here will just have to grin and bear it.
anyways , not here to be negative nor downramp cos that will be how its viewed by some of the more sensitive souls , i am merely stating my thoughts on a debt ridden company in a controlling buyers market

hey prolly got it all wrong and the chinese major holders / ore buyers are all innocent until proven guilty and there just as upset on the situation as all iron ore company stockholders...........

blessem

great stock to trade

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Sorry to rain your parade guys, but unless someone makes a t/o bid this stock is heading lower.

Lower lows, lower highs,

Breaking down through support levels.

gg

 

[BrownHornet]

Very much fun watching the comments in the forum. I love FMG as it so nicely fits into a beautiful bubble mania stock. It will head further south and I have some sympathy for those that have not done their research on the stock and keep jumping on board with lower prices as they perceive value. ...

Dont be fooled by bear rally, although good value for the trader to get in and out, this is heading further south. Where? Well I was thinking $2.50 but not far from that and I see a lot more downside through next year.

The real issue now would be when global markets start to recover in a few years I think we might find that Chindia will have a lot more control over prices. IO companies will be price takers. US will likely take many many years to recover. Japan still wailing. World order has changed. Bernake has to stop prints $US at some point.

 

[agro]

just look at the graph,

the last time the 7day MA crossed the 21 day MA was back in July 08!

surly its over due to cross again or potential bull run

the 7day is so close to convergence

 

[Miner]

Sorry to rain your parade guys, but unless someone makes a t/o bid this stock is heading lower.

Lower lows, lower highs,

Breaking down through support levels.

gg

Dear Garpal

When I see my heart it says Garpal should be wrong

When I read my head I am fear that Garpal could be absolutely right

Still there are few 'believers' of FMG who are thinking FMG will make a turn around and posting accordingly. THere are few rampers who are posting selectively to keep the sentiment (heart again) up on FMG.

With all stories coming from China and other sides of the world, I have to look for Lotto Win to get even my money back on FMG

Cheers

Disclosure : I am still holding FMG not with a great hope but because I am scared to get rid of my paper script with the name FMG now worth pepper corn

 

[wildthing]

Hi All,
While I agree FMG doesnt look good ....here is another possiblity...other than down to $1.00
Price on Friday bounced off the last credible support value of $2.46. It bounced here a couple of times in Mid August 2007....and went on to $13.00 high! $2.40 was resistance in April earlier that year and turned into support once broken.
Also with the gap down on friday and the small price range ...a doji [think that's what u call it] has been formed I think.
Now this sets up the possibility if a gap up happens tomorrow of a Bullish Reversal/Morning star? Can it go up on from here?
This possibility in current times is probably very much wishful thinking....but a possibility surely....for those TA's and those like me who are just trying to learn in this difficult times.
One things for real, we will have a better idea tomorrow.
And yes I am holding and just wish I hadnt been greedy hoping for a rebond and deviating from using stops. Guilty as stated, but hope to learn by mistake.
Cheers

 

[agro]

i am getting sick of FMG... and am considering selling at 2.50 and getting out all together

this is being a dog of a stock and is just heading in one direction - south

so much for an up day

also with the volume 9m i am starting to beleive a substantial holder is trickling the stocks for sales

look at course of sales for an indication!

seems like there is an unlimited amount of selling!! dog

 

[prawn_86]

i am getting sick of FMG... and am considering selling at 2.50 and getting out all together

this is being a dog of a stock and is just heading in one direction - south

so much for an up day

also with the volume 9m i am starting to beleive a substantial holder is trickling the stocks for sales

look at course of sales for an indication!

seems like there is an unlimited amount of selling!! dog

Wow, this post is either dripping with sarcasm, or FMGs main supporter here has had a huge change of heart.

What happened to the long term fundamentals? Why is it suddenly a dog overnight?

Methinks Agro needs to be less emotionally invested in his stocks