FMG - Fortescue Ltd

[renim]

Hi Renim (and everyone else)

Could you please elaborate upon "FMG reduces project scope." I have read that because of the current economic climate that it is difficult to get lending from banks but I dont know anything about FMG reducing their project scope.

Thanks in advance!
P.S Im aware that im quickly becoming the annoying person on this forum who asks a lot of questions but no comments to add

various rumors were circulating about fmg next expansion being a step to 120mtpa, but with a requirement to obtain more capital. fmg's announcement was that the next expansion will be to only 80mtpa but being essentially internally funded

 

[brenno]

Hi Agro

But I could not see the TRADING HALT ? Did you mean FMG's trading halt ?
No reference there in ASX . Could you please spell some light ?

http://asx.com.au/asx/research/Comp...panyName=&principalActivity=&industryGroup=NO

Miner,

The ASX may temporarily place a trading halt on a security following an announcement of market sensitive information that is considered likely to affect the price of a security during trading. FMG's release of the rail news was deemed market sensitive and as it was announced during trading hours, there was a trading halt put on the stock which lasted for 10 minutes.

Hope this answers your question.

Cheers.

 

[SenTineL]

This is an amazing market.

FMG has had in the last week announcements about the reserve upgrade, project expansion, the BHP rail victory yet the price keeps going south.

I guess this will continue until the US govt. goes ahead with the rescue plan.

Here's hoping for a good October

 

[renim]

I think American sentiment is that the commodities boom is over, world wide resources companies have lost 1.7 trillion US from their market highs.

Iron Ore spot market price is approaching long term price.

Chinese are playing hardball with Vale's rather impolite price hike.

However, I'm still bullish on FMG, compared to anyone on the ASX200. Their earnings should be spectacular this year, relative to market capital.

 

[michael_selway]

This is an amazing market.

FMG has had in the last week announcements about the reserve upgrade, project expansion, the BHP rail victory yet the price keeps going south.

I guess this will continue until the US govt. goes ahead with the rescue plan.

Here's hoping for a good October

Hm do you reckon the rescue plan is a good thing ;p?

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2008 2009 2010 2011
EPS -155.3 45.4 82.5 --
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 --

Date: 25/9/2008
Author: Ashley Midalia
Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 7
The ruling on access to rail infrastructure has been criticised by MitchellHooke, the CEO of the Minerals Council of Australia. He says the judgment actsas a disincentive to invest in infrastructure such as rail lines and ports.However, his view has been rejected by Graeme Rowley of Fortescue Metals Group,as well as the iron ore miner's lawyer, Norman O'Bryan, SC

thx

MS

 

[Miner]

With a high downfall in resource market today to be followed by still lower value of ASX index tomorrow (DJ and FTSE fell down considerably tonight) could ultimately lead FMG to $4.5

Agro you must be laughing now having bailed out of FMG ?

 

[cartel31]

I guess we hit the **** tm, another down day on the bloody DOW, down 289 points as I type, I hope the US drown in credit, blood fat overweight obese maggots buying mcdonalds and coke on credit, not producing anything and taking down the world with them!

This is just outrageous, I'm getting out **** this!

 

[Trembling Hand]

Some more good news,

From the age, http://business.theage.com.au/business/china-boom-falters-as-steel-softens-20080929-4qfk.html

THE head of China's leading steel company says the Chinese economy and steel industry are both "heading for a downward slide", as hopes fade that China can insulate Australia's resource-dependent economy from the widening global downturn.

The comments by Baosteel chairman Xu Lejiang coincide with evidence that a contraction in Chinese building construction is seriously crimping demand for key Australian commodities, like iron ore.

Not!!

 

[agro]

With a high downfall in resource market today to be followed by still lower value of ASX index tomorrow (DJ and FTSE fell down considerably tonight) could ultimately lead FMG to $4.5

Agro you must be laughing now having bailed out of FMG ?

he who laughs last laughs best.. sold around $5 so getting it 20-30c cheaper

today's my day to buy back in fellas

great opportunity

 

[njc.corp]

I reckon their is more in the tank to go down-

why--we come this far down which has been driven by last night bad market news,points on the us?

so if it's bad news driven will their be more pain?

i think that is the million dollar question

all in all i feel pretty good to have lefted with some money-it beats having nothing to trade with but i still watching

Thanks

Nick--

 

[rthakkar]

he who laughs last laughs best.. sold around $5 so getting it 20-30c cheaper

today's my day to buy back in fellas

great opportunity

Agree with the Argo, the stock is poised to rebound. I maintain my $7.10 target for the end of the year. I would suggest trading options due to limited risks and keeping the cash available for better opportunities

 

[spottygoose]

Fortescue upbeat about China's growth
Tuesday September 30, 2008, 2:34 pm

China's massive steel industry is expected to rebound next year as a feverish pace of construction returns, Fortescue Metals Group Ltd executive director Graeme Rowley says.

There is no doubt China has "put the brakes on" its rapid urbanisation in recent months and has accordingly dropped steel prices, which had flowed on to a lower spot price for iron ore, Mr Rowley told media Tuesday.

However, he remained optimistic about China's ongoing growth driven by internal demand for its products despite the crisis in the US financial markets.

"All the evidence that we have seen is that China can isolate itself from the damaging economic destruction that is happening in the US," Mr Rowley said.

"We have had some pretty good advice last week from some people in China who were very confident about its ability to withstand the financial crisis.

"Clearly it has such an enormous population, and is so focused on its own urbanisation and growth and development of general living standards, that they are prepared to continue to finance (industry or projects).

"Of course, there will be a slowdown as a result of lower demand (for China's exports) from the US."

"But when growth drops from 11 per cent to eight per cent, it is still a very strong growth position."

To sustain and grow Fortescue's operations the company would consider joint ventures or investment by sovereign funds such as China's EXIM Bank, Mr Rowley said.

He said it was not currently in discussions.

http://au.biz.yahoo.com/080930/2/1z238.html

 

[fordxbt]

not bullish at all
this one seems to recover & fall fast
good day trading
sucks to be an investor

 

[renim]

me think america has someway to go before they come up with a plan. 2/3 republicans and 1/3 democrats voted against the plan despite what their respective leaders negotiated. so the gloom should continue yet (they will be thankful that they cut out shorts before this happened), and china may not get to sell so many shiny things, but china will still be industrialising, globalising etc etc etc and sooner or later the one child policy will become a two child policy.

in the resources game the middle is being thinned out, the bottom end of town is stopping as they need external funds for new projects. the top end is going gangbusters trying to serve china etc, the top end can fund internally through cash flow, FMG has just entered the top end, with the decision to fund their expansion through cash flow.

any part of the aussie economy that competes with China, - forget it. any part that benefits from China, yeah baby. so FMG is a goer

 

[adobee]

It will be Bullish soon ! I am in between 4.90 and 5.02 !!
boom baby.. watch twiggy pull a rabbit out of a hat..

 

[agro]

It will be Bullish soon ! I am in between 4.90 and 5.02 !!
boom baby.. watch twiggy pull a rabbit out of a hat..

ACCC not opposed to BHP/RIO merger... if this goes through FMG will be second biggest iron ore in aus

 

[renim]

if bhp-tinto occurs then fmg has a good chance at becoming the world's no3 iron re exporter. not a bad position to be in when n1 and n2 end up controlling 70% of ship borne product

 

[Miner]

I am sure JP Morgan announced this forecast for FMG much before the railway track judgement in favour of FMG and clearance of ACCC for BHPB and Rio Merger. Further JP morgan is not smart enough themselves any way .
So please DYOR and reproduced the ntoe from Marcus Today newsletter of 2 Oct

Second Downgrade of the Day –

JP Morgan has cut its target price on Fortescue Metal (FMG) by 47% to 541c from 1032c saying FMG has altered the timing of its expansion plans in response to the global credit crunch, which has made it more difficult to raise the $7bn capital required for expansion. The key risks to their target price include, “$A/$US and iron ore price forecasts, and capital costs and production ramp up rates of the assumed expansion”.

 

[renim]

yeah, i had read that too, its interesting but appears driven by calculations of fmg sticking only to an 80mtpa operation, which i find unlikely if fmg is able to use internal cash to expand to 80mtpa that they would stop there as at 80mtpa they should have more internal cashflow to expand further, ie fmg lose 2 years of acceleration for the luxory/necessity of limiting itself to internal funding. sooner or later those who have taken cash from the market will return to stock up the survivors, bhp-tinto, vale, fmg will be there with great cashflows to justify their valuations. (just been reading dry-blower)

 

[agro]

someone wanting to sell 1 million FMGs at 4.20

wonder who that is? retail, insto or other?

be interesting to see if they pull

is this manipulation maybe?