FMG - Fortescue Ltd

Masrket sentiment has caught up with this one.

This virtually did a reverse to what most near term producers do. Usually they are stagnant/falling leading up to production, then rise when production is confirmed.

Seems the markets 'golden child' has lost its shine though. Even those investing on fundies should be wary, as who know where the panic selling will end up.

Gav a big order goes through. What does that mean??? Nothing. A big buyer and a JUST as big sell swapped stock. Why would you weigh one side, the buyer, more than the other??

It means nothing especially at this time of the month. But Agro was inferring that it did mean something ie a big buyer. I can tell you it meant nothing.

Trembling Hand, I am not the only one who believes in a company they own shares in whether the SP is going up or down (otherwise I wouldnt have bought in the first place), just take a look at the posts made by anyone on any other thread. Yes I am new to all of this, and my knowledge is very limited, and I am the first to admit that. This may just turn out to be a very expensive lesson for me. But its the lessons you have first hand that are the ones you learn the most from, like everything in life.

Gav fair enough. I'm not having a go (although it probably looks like it) but just trying to point out two simple mistake that many make at this time.

One. All the large volume you see from big players means nothing as far as directional bets. They are Arbitrage trades being unwound.

Two. A big trade means nothing in isolation as there is obviously two equally big player on either side. And not to think its a buy because its also a sell.

well i was forced to sell my beloved FMG today due to margin call..

just to recap, i was in at $2.95,

sold at 5.03

looking to re-enter though

agro said:

well i was forced to sell my beloved FMG today due to margin call..

just to recap, i was in at $2.95,

sold at 5.03

looking to re-enter though

Click to expand...

Could have been worse, you could have been forced to sell at 4.60! When will this madness end.........? ;-)

agro said:

well i was forced to sell my beloved FMG today due to margin call..

just to recap, i was in at $2.95,

sold at 5.03

looking to re-enter though

Click to expand...

no stress agro- one door shut and the othe widely open-

Thats just the way it rolls-

Take it easy

Thanks

Nick--

njc.corp said:

no stress agro- one door shut and the othe widely open-

Thats just the way it rolls-

Take it easy

Thanks

Nick--

Click to expand...

i am most defently looking to buy in again

strongly beleive in the company, just in this uncertainty no one knows when the carnage will end..

agro said:

i am most defently looking to buy in again

strongly beleive in the company, just in this uncertainty no one knows when the carnage will end..

Click to expand...

argo-as we talked about- i made good money on this for a while-

it got me thinking yesterday that enough is enough-i sold @ $5.10

i just pulled a 1 year low chart and said we been at the top in june/july and we been in the low end since then

the 52 week low was in $3+ region

so i said why cant it get any lower-it can and will -well the trend been going down-so that a good fact right their-

i am sick of asking why its down or is it because of short selling etc etc-

i change my way of dealing with stuff like this-

i am in or out-

and when i am in i look at the price of it right their and then and make a choice-

I think thats the problem-people saying the market is down-well yes-what u going to do-

u can only fight so much until u got no more cash-

i say that their must be more bad times ahead- why-well why not?

keep chin up-plenty more where that came from-maybe after the storm clear's

Thanks

Nick--

njc.corp said:

the 52 week low was in $3+ region

so i said why cant it get any lower-it can and will -well the trend been going down-so that a good fact right their-
Nick--

Click to expand...

True, but when it was last at $3ish, FMG hadn't actually delivered any iron ore and there were still plenty of question marks over that, if I remember correctly (didn't start watching the progress until it was around the $9-10 mark).

I suppose it seems there are still question marks about FMG's ability to ramp up production though, but presumably they're still profitable.

Re: FMG-agro lives to fight another day.you won

agro said:

well i was forced to sell my beloved FMG today due to margin call..

just to recap, i was in at $2.95,

sold at 5.03

looking to re-enter though

Click to expand...

that would be around the old $29.50 wouldnt it agro? close to when i got in at $33 then heaps more at $25 then out at $50.

gee mate you let it slide there,me i set a price target then stick to it as you see i sold at $50 & made lots...i would have sold at around $9.50-$10.00.

then get back in however you did ok...margin calls mmm i wouldnt touch them with a barge pole...bad value(gotta sell at the top as you know.)...tb

Re: FMG-agro lives to fight another day.you won

tigerboi said:

that would be around the old $29.50 wouldnt it agro? close to when i got in at $33 then heaps more at $25 then out at $50.

gee mate you let it slide there,me i set a price target then stick to it as you see i sold at $50 & made lots...i would have sold at around $9.50-$10.00.

then get back in however you did ok...margin calls mmm i wouldnt touch them with a barge pole...bad value(gotta sell at the top as you know.)...tb

Click to expand...

yeh $29.05 last year in July

would made a killing at $10-$13..

just staying put for time being, i can't really think of a share better than FMG.. caus most shares have declined

Re: FMG-i love these days...craaasshh

i love it when these days happen & its only bank related so your getting the chance for lower prices you normally wont get,ive set a fmg target of $4.45 which i first thought maybe,the only thing that will hold them back is cash.

at least you made some kanga mate unlike the cnp/bnb crowd chasing their tails praying for a miracle!more chance of harold holt returning...dreamers...

agro you got to be more disciplined with a target to sell,dont be disappointed if you sell at $50 like i did...set a target,sell then wait for the high & re-enter.me i went long on gold & its heading way back over its high...tb

fmg for me im looking at $4.45-$4.50...

i don't think fmg is cashflow positive yet, they have a target to achieve 'investment grade' in the near future. that is next big step.

diliff said:

True, but when it was last at $3ish, FMG hadn't actually delivered any iron ore and there were still plenty of question marks over that, if I remember correctly (didn't start watching the progress until it was around the $9-10 mark).

I suppose it seems there are still question marks about FMG's ability to ramp up production though, but presumably they're still profitable.

Click to expand...

diliff- lets have a look at facts not because at that time they have not shiped-

they have been at the $3+ region-and also the $13.00

and the trend as been down for a while-

these are facts

the biggest fact is that it is in the $5.00 region

i was even wrong to say that we would not see under $10.00

how wrong i was-

the current price is the main fact

the question is what we or u going to do about it-

Thanks

Nick--

Re: FMG-i love these days...craaasshh

tigerboi said:

agro you got to be more disciplined with a target to sell,dont be disappointed if you sell at $50 like i did...set a target,sell then wait for the high & re-enter.

Click to expand...

Or at least have a trailling stop (mental or as an actual order), so you dont end up giving away so much profit...

Re: FMG-i love these days...craaasshh

prawn_86 said:

Or at least have a trailling stop (mental or as an actual order), so you dont end up giving away so much profit...

Click to expand...

correct prawn,stop loss if you want,i dont use them myself as i set a target then sell as i did at $50 just before the slomon anns. crashed it through $65. at the time i was dirty but in light of the following events at least i made some coin.

agro not having a go at you mate but it is a dumb play letting it rip down to the present level,once twiggy got off the shovel coupled with the shorters the party was always over re:folks going elsewhere.

it is hard to pick a top for sure but i reckon the final get out was when the rumours of shorting came out that was the time to exit.

so best to set your sell limit so you bought at $2.90(i was the first here to say it would reach $100)you then think how much profit do you want 100% go $6.00...so 300% would of seen you out at $12.

its all about discipline for me as you are getting out in front...tb

Okay well I am now on the FMG boat to CHina ! I have bought up this morning at mid $5 mark ... hopping twiggy will pull something out of his hat to push his net worth back up !!

Was this announcement already out when I started buying ???? Comsec is a bit slow ...


FY 2008 Financial Accounts
Fortescue’s Maiden Trading Profit – A$72 million
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd (“Fortescue”) is pleased to lodge its accounts for the 2008
financial year. These accounts are the first to reflect Fortescue as an operating business
following the first shipment of iron ore in May 2008.
The accounts show approximately eight weeks of operations covering the early
commissioning stages of the business resulting in a trading profit of A$72 million. This was
generated from sales and shipping of 1.66 million tonnes of ore exported to end June 2008
which contributed to revenues of A$201 million.
Since July 1, a further 35 shipments totalling 5.90 million tonnes of product have been
shipped as the business continues to ramp up to full production. All facets of the integrated
mine, rail and port operations are performing well and a monthly run rate at the base target
of 45 million tonnes per annum “Mta” is expected to be achieved from November 2008
onwards. The optimisation to 55 Mta is then expected in Q1 2009 (calendar) as the second
ship loading berth and the lump circuit are brought into operation.
The other key feature of the accounts is the adjustment to the Leucadia subordinated loan
note. Under accounting standards, the note is required to be revalued each reporting period
to reflect the total expected interest payments over the 13 year note term calculated as 4%
of revenue net of government royalties. Given improved variables since the last report (1/2yr
2008), Fortescue has adjusted the note to reflect higher iron ore prices, a lower AUD/USD
exchange rate and higher forecast sales tonnages building to 160 million tonnes per annum
over the note period out to 2019.
The effect of the revaluation is a A$3.46 billion adjustment to the profit and loss account
which, after a tax adjustment, results in a net loss for the year of A$2.8 billion. This “paper
loss” reflects the total expected interest payable to Leucadia out to 2019, but noting that the
actual interest will only be paid at six monthly intervals after the tonnes have been shipped
and revenue determined. Notwithstanding, the revised note valuation in the 2008FY
Accounts is the Company’s best estimate of the likely future payments based on the
abovementioned variable assumptions agreed with Fortescue’s auditors.

Here's the other rabbit out of the hat adobee:

1,625 Million Tonne Ore Reserve Estimate
Representing a 54% increase

• Total Project Ore Reserves now at 1,625 Million Tonnes being a 572 Million Tonne Ore Reserve Upgrade
• 143 Million Tonnes Proved Ore Reserve estimate for studies at Cloudbreak and Christmas Creek
• 1,482 Million Tonnes Probable Ore Reserve estimate for studies at Cloudbreak and Christmas Creek
• Study conversion rate of 87.6% from Measured and Indicated Resources to Proved and Probable Reserve