FMG - Fortescue Ltd

[SenTineL]

amazing isn't it
announcement out about securing same price as BHP and RIO and still gets smashed.

i wonder where the logic in the market is sometimes.
i can only see it being even more volatile this year

 

[ans25]

Mate that's exactly what I was referring to @ Agro, FMG seems to me a lot more volatile the last 2 or so months, steady increase to abt 12 then a big drop 2 dollars or even more.

If you time it right, you can really manipulate this one and make a killing.

 

[renim]

fmg doesn't feel more volatile than usual. think back to when it did the capital raising (about 5%) back at $35. that was about a year ago, there was a market scare and fmg went from about $40 down to $27 (about 30%)

6mnths ago it went from $6.60 to $5. thats similar % to recent slides.

so it does have choppy times, but it takes a better trader than I to to time this stock, if you can, there is a killing to be made, but i suspect you will be in a zero sum game against professionals.

i'll hold, accumulate this stock, its ebitda will be great, and its blue sky is unpriced and unannounced yet more certain than many others even if they are announced. (by that i mean it may not have detailed its plans for ~200mtpa, but i got more confidence in fmg's expansion than any yet unproducing iron ore miners)

with fmg if you don't feed the shorters, they'll fall away soon enough, let them make their money from someone else's stop loss. or if you're brave/foolish, be one yourself.

 

[SenTineL]

dont worry, i've ridden the FMG wave for about 3 years now so i'm familiar with the ups and downs.

the market is going to crap fast though, good if you had some extra cash stashed away to buy into some of the bargains. wonder when this will all turn around again, interesting times

 

[gav]

its now back below my entry level



Gav

 

[Miner]

probably another bad day for all stocks on Wednesday

US stock futures dip on credit woes08 Jul 2008 | Reuters

US stock futures fell on Tuesday, putting Wall Street on course to extend a global sell-off fuelled by fears the financial services sector could be hit by further credit losses, jeopardizing economic growth and profits.

 

[Prospector]

The US certainly knows how to screw up the world in every way, doesn't it. Unethical lending and the whole world suffers. And then there is Iraq.

 

[Miner]

probably another bad day for all stocks on Wednesday

US stock futures dip on credit woes08 Jul 2008 | Reuters

US stock futures fell on Tuesday, putting Wall Street on course to extend a global sell-off fuelled by fears the financial services sector could be hit by further credit losses, jeopardizing economic growth and profits.

Woh what a relief to see contrary to what Reuters reported (probably wrongly printed for Tuesday and should have been for Monday market - not me as I only quoted ) the DJ rose up on Tuesday. Hangsang however declined severely.

If I punt the market should be up at ASX to start with but certainly be volatile for FMG and DMM - not good . We need some stability from this roller coaster

In Commsec as I could see for today there are more sellers for FMG than buyers

 

[agro]

Woh what a relief to see contrary to what Reuters reported (probably wrongly printed for Tuesday and should have been for Monday market - not me as I only quoted ) the DJ rose up on Tuesday. Hangsang however declined severely.

If I punt the market should be up at ASX to start with but certainly be volatile for FMG and DMM - not good . We need some stability from this roller coaster

In Commsec as I could see for today there are more sellers for FMG than buyers

those selling will inevitable buy back, unless they find a better stock..

it would be interesting to see these peoples rationales for selling... this stock once earnings announced will rocket.. has too many good things (dividend, cazaly 200bn if they win that) to come imo..

i spose people don't like uncertainty and would not rather wait a couple of weeks for the market to settle down ..

 

[njc.corp]

those selling will inevitable buy back, unless they find a better stock..

it would be interesting to see these peoples rationales for selling... this stock once earnings announced will rocket.. has too many good things (dividend, cazaly 200bn if they win that) to come imo..

i spose people don't like uncertainty and would not rather wait a couple of weeks for the market to settle down ..

Agro-how are u buddy?

is that not the topic lately-

this is what i am getting from the people i know-

they are selling because they are scared-

they are not professional traders just young timers-

it seems whatever i tell them to stick it out-the media is controlling them by feeding them bulldust-

i tell them what goes up must come down and u have to live with that-

thats the name of the game- i get the answer that i am off my head-

i mean-my dad as been loving the fall-he is a bargin hunter-

he has bought over 7500 units in fmg in the last week or so-

dads having to deal with becoming a holder for once in his life-

i am on the edge also- i am thinking of lowering my stop as i know ( u know what i mean) it will come around-

the magic question is when-

how u been away?

Happy trading people lets have a good week-whats lefted of it-

Thanks

Nick--

 

[agro]

Agro-how are u buddy?

is that not the topic lately-

this is what i am getting from the people i know-

they are selling because they are scared-

they are not professional traders just young timers-

it seems whatever i tell them to stick it out-the media is controlling them by feeding them bulldust-

i tell them what goes up must come down and u have to live with that-

thats the name of the game- i get the answer that i am off my head-

i mean-my dad as been loving the fall-he is a bargin hunter-

he has bought over 7500 units in fmg in the last week or so-

dads having to deal with becoming a holder for once in his life-

i am on the edge also- i am thinking of lowering my stop as i know ( u know what i mean) it will come around-

the magic question is when-

how u been away?

Happy trading people lets have a good week-whats lefted of it-

Thanks

Nick--

g'day nick

well considering i hold mainly iron ore and coal stocks, i (as like others) have been hit pretty hard..

but my philosophy is not quick gains over night but for the future to come..

once the market has sorted itself out, its back to basics

people buying now, into whatever stock are getting a substantial discount..

if you are going to trade based on emotion (all doom and gloom) it's easy to loose.. patience comes to those who wait

that's all i have to say

 

[roland]

I suppose you guys already know about the steel plants being shut down for the duration of the Olympic games. It will certainly have an impact on short term ore demand:

from China Mining . org

China to shut factories ahead of Olympics
(Reuters)
Updated: 2008-07-07 09:53
Counter:90

Authorities in Tangshan, an industrial city in Hebei province north of Beijing, have ordered 267 firms to shut down operations by July 8 to improve air quality ahead of the Olympics, government and industry sources said on Friday.


The firms include 66 steelmakers, as well as coke plants, cement firms and small power generators, a government official in Tangshan said.


The companies would have to undergo strict environmental protection checks before they could resume production at an unspecified date, the sources said.


Beijing has been shrouded in thick smog this week, with buildings just a few hundred feet away barely visible -- the kind of air quality that would embarrass the authorities and potentially disrupt sporting events during the Olympics in August.


The Tangshan firms ordered to halt production were small ones, and their impact on Hebei's steel industry, which accounts for about 20 percent of steel production capacity in China, would not be significant, analysts said.


"It is hard to estimate how much steel production capacity would be shut down because most of the firms are very small ones," said Hu Yanping, a steel sector analyst with industry portal Umetal.com.

 

[Nesa]

I'll tell you one thing, if I had some spare capital I would be sinking it into buying more of this stock at the price it's at.

 

[LeeTV]

Hit an intraday low of $8.75, accumulating at these prices. Sunk the last of my capital in today so now it's time to sit and wait for things to settle back to some type of normality, hopefully sooner rather than later

 

[Jonesie]

They can't be far off they're 2 million tonnes, maybe only a week away from what I hear? Anyone else know anything?

 

[gav]

Far out, some very good buy opportunities today. I considered topping up, but hesitated. Then it bounced back up very quickly. Well done LeeTV

 

[roland]

I'ts a great price - but I day traded - in at 8.80 out at 9.20 - can't get much better than that

Unfortunately it makes my parcel sitting at $11.70 looking pretty sad

 

[impala_group]

What about this little story:

there is a restrictive term in the company's 2006 bond issue that limits the company's iron ore expansion in the short term. A growth that is very crucial at moment because of the good ore prices etc.

FMG is trying to come up with a way to beat this because the bond holders have influence in what the company is doing as they had some targets locked in for their bond grading (from 'B' to 'BBB' - and they are a couple of months off). And until this is attained there is no much the company can do. There are other avenues ofcoz but at the moment:

The company is considering a demerger then spin off some assets to the new company in order to expand as rapidly as they want to take advantage of good iron ore prices.

They have registered another company name...West Pilbara Iron Ltd: with mining concentrated in the west side of the the pilbara project. I think this will directly impact on FMG SP and dividend yield in future if it goes through.....several scenarios!!!

Experts where you at....???

 

[agro]

What about this little story:

there is a restrictive term in the company's 2006 bond issue that limits the company's iron ore expansion in the short term. A growth that is very crucial at moment because of the good ore prices etc.

FMG is trying to come up with a way to beat this because the bond holders have influence in what the company is doing as they had some targets locked in for their bond grading (from 'B' to 'BBB' - and they are a couple of months off). And until this is attained there is no much the company can do. There are other avenues ofcoz but at the moment:

The company is considering a demerger then spin off some assets to the new company in order to expand as rapidly as they want to take advantage of good iron ore prices.

They have registered another company name...West Pilbara Iron Ltd: with mining concentrated in the west side of the the pilbara project. I think this will directly impact on FMG SP and dividend yield in future if it goes through.....several scenarios!!!

Experts where you at....???

yeh i herd about the West Pilbara subsidary - pretty smart idea by twiggy and co !!

not only would this allow them to borrow money but expand as you said

i'd def purchase some if i got the opportunity

 

[LeeTV]

What about this little story:

there is a restrictive term in the company's 2006 bond issue that limits the company's iron ore expansion in the short term. A growth that is very crucial at moment because of the good ore prices etc.

FMG is trying to come up with a way to beat this because the bond holders have influence in what the company is doing as they had some targets locked in for their bond grading (from 'B' to 'BBB' - and they are a couple of months off). And until this is attained there is no much the company can do. There are other avenues ofcoz but at the moment:

The company is considering a demerger then spin off some assets to the new company in order to expand as rapidly as they want to take advantage of good iron ore prices.

They have registered another company name...West Pilbara Iron Ltd: with mining concentrated in the west side of the the pilbara project. I think this will directly impact on FMG SP and dividend yield in future if it goes through.....several scenarios!!!

Experts where you at....???

That's the same article I posted on July 3rd pg39 of this thread (post #3)
Fortescue battling legacy of the bonds