FMG - Fortescue Ltd

[farmerge]

You can get lots of crazy ideas starring at charts.

Maybe take a look at the fundamentals, and its earning power over the last 5 years and see if it compares to Bonds.

I will gives you a hint, just in dividends alone, FMG has return over 100 times the amount investors originally put in to start the company, does that sound like anything Allan Bond did?

Prisoner Bond (housed at Wooroloo Prison farm) only raped and pillaged giving nothing back.
Though I must admit when he owned Brigadoon I did some work there many years ago and I managed to get more than the going rate at that time.
Even had arvo tea with him and his late daughter.

 

[farmerge]

I actually read a book on Alan Bond last year (picked it up cheap at the salvos), he was a colourful character, but had the heart of a conman who hoped to cover his tracks through wild speculations he hoped paid off.

The is no real comparison to Twiggy.

View attachment 173433

Little fat prick.

 

[Value Collector]

Less employees, wages, super etc etc and more moolah for Twiggy as he obviously gets the elephants share with every divi

Then he gives most of it to charity.

You should never be worried about efficiency reducing the need for labour, that has been the driver of our standard of living growth for over 100 years, it wasn't to long ago that 90% of people worked in agriculture.

We can create more jobs at any time, just ban combine harvesters and force farmers to hire 100 workers are with sickles.

FMG today pays miners many times more than they would have earned in the past when they were armed with hand held shovels, and the working conditions are far better.

 

[farmerge]

FMG my tip for the Yearly Comp.
End of march murmerings.
Has suffered a little this month in it's SP but the dividend should help to soften the dip, it anyone is trading.
Production is not slowing, and iron ore production is a bit like swings and round-a-bouts.
I cannot see anything to create a sell, rather hold and bulk up for the next dividend windfall.

 

[joeno]

Less employees, wages, super etc etc and more moolah for Twiggy as he obviously gets the elephants share with every divi

You want the original entrepreneurs with a high stake in a company, controlling/influencing the company. Long term incentives vs short term bonus packages.

I think FMG could easily jump over the market cap of the Big 4 banks.

The dream is FMG becomes a systematically important international supplier of iron ore and other services through innovation, low expense and a high profit margin business model and become a Top 3 ASX company.

 

[farmerge]

You want the original entrepreneurs with a high stake in a company, controlling/influencing the company. Long term incentives vs short term bonus packages.

I think FMG could easily jump over the market cap of the Big 4 banks.

The dream is FMG becomes a systematically important international supplier of iron ore and other services through innovation, low expense and a high profit margin business model and become a Top 3 ASX company.

@joeno While Twiggy holds the reins and has the "right" people around him every chance your post could be true.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

@joeno While Twiggy holds the reins and has the "right" people around him every chance your post could be true.

i heard a bit of criticism of Mindaroo, in that, when approached for money for disaster resilience, they won't put money into research or background stuff, but seem happy to grab headlines.

 

[Value Collector]

i heard a bit of criticism of Mindaroo, in that, when approached for money for disaster resilience, they won't put money into research or background stuff, but seem happy to grab headlines.

Could you imagine how many people approach them for money every week?? refusal often offends, but is necessary.

It's in funny though that no matter how much money you give away there will always be cynics that will say you didn't give enough, or didn't give it in the right ways, or that it is really because you have some evil agenda, or they are just upset you didn't give it to a charity they control.

 

[farmerge]

Could you imagine how many people approach them for money every week?? refusal often offends, but is necessary.

It's in funny though that no matter how much money you give away there will always be cynics that will say you didn't give enough, or didn't give it in the right ways, or that it is really because you have some evil agenda, or they are just upset you didn't give it to a charity they control.

I'm not privy to Twigg's donations but only from what I know from people he has helped.
The big Wooroloo bushfire 4 years he was right at the forefront supplying for anyone who had lost their home, an ablution block, and water tank so they had the necessities after the disaster.
From memory after the disastrous and massive bushfires in Victoria a few years he sent over from semi trailer after semi trailer load of Transportables.
During the early days of Covid it was Twiggy that pilled the strings in China to get tonnes of ppe that he distributed around the country.
Sure he gets the headlines and I reckon deserves them.

 

[finicky]

No comment, it's a Morningstar take with dense reasoning and jargon, I zoned out.
His one line conclusion: "I believe FMG will survive but not by much. And yes, I got shorts."

Not Held
Never been a fan due to the debt, single commodity cf BHP, and 'friend of China' Twiggy.

Fortescue bubble to burst

A bubble, in fact. Morningstar with the note. Fortescue is the world’s fourth-largest iron ore exporter. Margins are well below industry leaders BHP and Rio Tinto, and some way behind Vale, meaning Fortescue sits in the highest half of the cost curve. This is a primary driver of our no-moat...

www.macrobusiness.com.au

 

[Value Collector]

No comment, it's a Morningstar take with dense reasoning and jargon, I zoned out.
His one line conclusion: "I believe FMG will survive but not by much. And yes, I got shorts."

Not Held
Never been a fan due to the debt, single commodity cf BHP, and 'friend of China' Twiggy.

Fortescue bubble to burst

A bubble, in fact. Morningstar with the note. Fortescue is the world’s fourth-largest iron ore exporter. Margins are well below industry leaders BHP and Rio Tinto, and some way behind Vale, meaning Fortescue sits in the highest half of the cost curve. This is a primary driver of our no-moat...

www.macrobusiness.com.au

i don’t think that guy has written a positive article about Iron Ore at any time in the last 15 years. His daily articles on the demise of iron ore for the past 15 years are laughable, he is a perm bear .

Macro business Is a joke, read their stuff at your own peril imo

 

[TimeISmoney]

i don’t think that guy has written a positive article about Iron Ore at any time in the last 15 years. His daily articles on the demise of iron ore for the past 15 years are laughable, he is a perm bear .

Macro business Is a joke, read their stuff at your own peril imo

A shorting fund manager, enough said.

 

[Value Hunter]

No comment, it's a Morningstar take with dense reasoning and jargon, I zoned out.
His one line conclusion: "I believe FMG will survive but not by much. And yes, I got shorts."

Not Held
Never been a fan due to the debt, single commodity cf BHP, and 'friend of China' Twiggy.

Basically his bearish argument boils down to that he sees long term Iron Ore prices dropping to averaging U.S. $70 per tonne over the cycle. Its possible but it seems unlikely to me. We are living in an inflationary world so I just do not see that happening.

 

[TimeISmoney]

Basically his bearish argument boils down to that he sees long term Iron Ore prices dropping to averaging U.S. $70 per tonne over the cycle. Its possible but it seems unlikely to me. We are living in an inflationary world so I just do not see that happening.

Have you seen the 9 articles beneath it bagging out iron, it's a typical shorters heckle.

Why waste your energy and time on so many articles unless of course, you're making money out of it in some way?

 

[Value Collector]

Basically his bearish argument boils down to that he sees long term Iron Ore prices dropping to averaging U.S. $70 per tonne over the cycle. Its possible but it seems unlikely to me. We are living in an inflationary world so I just do not see that happening.

Iron Ore could definitely drop to $70 or even lower, but that’s not really important, what is important for the long term holder is the average price, eg 6 months at $70 and 6 months at $130 is an average of $100, we only need Iron Ore to average $95 or so for FMG to be a great business worth $30.

But the guy from MacroBusiness is perpetually negative, every headline he writes is over the top negative, But like a broken clock he will be right twice a day, but you don’t trust a broken clock to tell you useful informatio

 

[Value Collector]

Have you seen the 9 articles beneath it bagging out iron, it's a typical shorters heckle.

Why waste your energy and time on so many articles unless of course, you're making money out of it in some way?

And he has been writing those articles multiple times a week for years

 

[Value Hunter]

Iron Ore could definitely drop to $70 or even lower, but that’s not really important, what is important for the long term holder is the average price

I agree that is why I said "$70 per tonne over the cycle". Sure $70 could happen but I don't think it would stay there for long as too much iron ore production in the world would shut down at that price.

 

[sptrawler]

 

[Skate]

General comment about iron ore (Off Topic)
I've invested in BHP and FMG because iron ore is crucial for our modern world. In essence, iron ore is the backbone of our modern way of life, supporting everything from hi-risers buildings to the vehicles we drive.

Without iron ore, our lives would grind to a halt. Countless industries rely on steel as the fundamental material for their products, and therefore, plays an indispensable role in fostering economic growth and driving technological advancement, the catalyst for progress.

In summary, iron ore's significance in our modern world cannot be overstated. It is the fabric of progress.

Skate.

 

[sptrawler]

Absolutely spot on as usual @Skate , we have no substitute and the demand will ebb and flow, then hopefully we will be able to recycle enough before the primary minerals are depleted.

Iron ore mining and steel production will increase while 2nd world countries and then 3rd world countries urbanise and industrialise.

But as with everything it ebbs and flows, as do share prices and dividends.
That IMO, is why everyone has to try and be unemmotional, which is what you are a great prophet of.