FMG - Fortescue Ltd

[Dona Ferentes]

bought my first ever parcel of FMG yesterday ....I feel that I am now free to post as much as I like about FMG from now on.
Mick

Well done , Mick.

I suppose FMG is still driven by fundamental, so I had a squizz at SP performance v BHP.
Over one year, in pure price terms, both have done well

But over 5 years, who's had their foot on the gas?

 

[qldfrog]

Well done , Mick.

I suppose FMG is still driven by fundamental, so I had a squizz at SP performance v BHP.
Over one year, in pure price terms, both have done well
View attachment 157054

But over 5 years, who's had their foot on the gas?
View attachment 157055

The worry I have about FMG is simple:
I saw first hand as I subcontracted for them how BHP got lost in narratives for the last 10y or so, and the focus on non core , usually non business focus destroyed any goodwill, lead to subpar HR selections with matching disgust and lack of engagement for the main workforce.
That is still going on and the results are bloody clear IMHO.
Sadly, it now seems FMG,and to a lesser level Rio are following the same path.
I do and did buy FMG recently but only for trading.
As I moved to investor only slashed portfolio last month, FMG is out and S32 would be preferred for example
It would be a shame to see fmg destroyed and then sold at a discount to the lastest cashed up foreign fund when IO will next crash..
As a crash will happen..just the cycle of life of mining stocks.
They took an existential bet on debt, won and it would be sad to destroy the winnings now

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Well done , Mick.

I suppose FMG is still driven by fundamental, so I had a squizz at SP performance v BHP.
Over one year, in pure price terms, both have done well
View attachment 157054

But over 5 years, who's had their foot on the gas?
View attachment 157055

The worry I have about FMG is simple:
I saw first hand as I subcontracted for them how BHP got lost in narratives for the last 10y or so, and the focus on non core , usually non business focus destroyed any goodwill, lead to subpar HR selections with matching disgust and lack of engagement for the main workforce.
That is still going on and the results are bloody clear IMHO.
Sadly, it now seems FMG,and to a lesser level Rio are following the same path.
I do and did buy FMG recently but only for trading.
As I moved to investor only slashed portfolio last month, FMG is out and S32 would be preferred for example
It would be a shame to see fmg destroyed and then sold at a discount to the lastest cashed up foreign fund when IO will next crash..
As a crash will happen..just the cycle of life of mining stocks.
They took an existential bet on debt, won and it would be sad to destroy the winnings now

From that chart @Dona Ferentes it would appear FMG is best treated as a trading stock as @qldfrog intimated.

Buy at $14-16 and sell in the mid $20's unless it marches on towards $30.

Fundamentals indicate similar, either get their act together and work out what they are good at, or a collapse in sp led by the instos and it all ends in tears.

gg

 

[sptrawler]

The worry I have about FMG is simple:
I saw first hand as I subcontracted for them how BHP got lost in narratives for the last 10y or so, and the focus on non core , usually non business focus destroyed any goodwill, lead to subpar HR selections with matching disgust and lack of engagement for the main workforce.
That is still going on and the results are bloody clear IMHO.

That goes for Australia in general, as we march to the beat of only one side of issues, until the economy falls into a heap we have to travel this path..
Management is controlled by the media and institutional investors, who are driving a low productivity low profit agenda, it will end badly but that is the way of cycles.
It is like the big push for people to work from home "because it improves productivity", as if. ?
Just like buying a home gym, to save on gym membership improves your fitness, especially when your building it and when you then drag it down to the verge for the junk collection.?

 

[rcw1]

Good afternoon
Interested in how Fiona Hick goes as the chief executive of Fortescue Metals Group.
Comes highly credentialled, having worked at both RIO and Woodside. Maybe Twiggy head hunted her to come across.
Not sure.
Also not sure of their professional relationship, past history and connection.

Honeymoon period nearly over.

Have a very nice day, today.

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Good afternoon
Interested in how Fiona Hick goes as the chief executive of Fortescue Metals Group.
Comes highly credentialled, having worked at both RIO and Woodside. Maybe Twiggy head hunted her to come across.
Not sure.
Also not sure of their professional relationship, past history and connection.

Honeymoon period nearly over.

Have a very nice day, today.

Kind regards
rcw1

I believe she is seen as an efficient, effective and valuable Woodside WDS operator, when she was there.

I'm unsure of her RIO cv.

She is highly regarded in tough industries.

gg

 

[farmerge]

Drastic fall??? Any year iron ore averaged over $100 is a great year to me.

I remember Iron Ore being $35 and thinking if only it could get back to $70 my life would be wonderful, the fact that it ended up rising to $180 for a month or two before settling back to near $100 is certainly not something to mourn. Especially because that brief windfall high price allowed a dividend payment of more than what I paid for some of my shares.

Commodity prices fluctuate, that’s just what they do, it’s not something to worry about. All that is important is the average price each year being higher than the companies production costs.

FMG diversifying into other businesses is obviously a good thing, especially if you are worried about fluctuations in the iron ore price.

And Mr value if it is good for the Master, Masterful Twiggy, who greatly benefits from any dividend paid, then the fallout to the peasants has to be a bonus as well.

 

[Value Collector]

And Mr value if it is good for the Master, Masterful Twiggy, who greatly benefits from any dividend paid, then the fallout to the peasants has to be a bonus as well.

I am not quite sure what you mean.

But, when Iron Ore dropped below $60 last time, and the share price dropped Twiggy did buy another $100 Million worth on shares on the open market. I guess he knew that Iron Ore fluctuates, and a drop in the price of Iron Ore doesn’t mean a permanent devaluation of the company, so when the market freaks and the share price drops based on short term iron ore fluctuations it’s best to buy in rather than follow the herd over a cliff.

Will Iron Ore stay at $180 forever,… No.
Will Iron Ore stay at $ 60 forever,….. No.

Will Iron Ore fluctuate between the two over time,…. definitely yes.

Will Iron Ore price average some where around above $90 where FMG makes great money on average over the years,…. I believe so.

 

[basilio]

I have to wonder at the "hate" for FMG and its move to create a massive new renewable energy industry.

The basic facts are that it still runs and is expanding a 180Million ton a year iron ore business that produces $10B Gross Profits and around $6B Net. They just successfully brought the Magnetite mine Iron Ridge into production. The Gabon mine looks like starting up this year

It allocates 10% of its profit to support the renewable energy component FFI which is ring fenced against causing external losses to FMG . So in which universe is this evidence of a company in danger of just collapsing because of said investment ?

The other mining investments ? Why not ? They are a mining company with the capital and skills to make a buck where they they believe it exists.

It seems unbalanced and I suggest a ideological "hate" that sees renewable energy projects as unnecessary green wash.

The fact that Twiggy Forrest is absolutely concerned about Global Warming AND sees a potential gold mine in tackling the issue is anathema.

 

[basilio]

But, when Iron Ore dropped below $60 last time, and the share price dropped Twiggy did buy another $100 Million worth on shares on the open market

I thought that was around $230m plus ? I remember FMG did take a pounding for a couple of months and Twiggy decided it was just too cheap to let go. Or perhaps there was more than one entry ?

 

[farmerge]

I have to wonder at the "hate" for FMG and its move to create a massive new renewable energy industry.

The basic facts are that it still runs and is expanding a 180Million ton a year iron ore business that produces $10B Gross Profits and around $6B Net. They just successfully brought the Magnetite mine Iron Ridge into production. The Gabon mine looks like starting up this year

It allocates 10% of its profit to support the renewable energy component FFI which is ring fenced against causing external losses to FMG . So in which universe is this evidence of a company in danger of just collapsing because of said investment ?

The other mining investments ? Why not ? They are a mining company with the capital and skills to make a buck where they they believe it exists.

It seems unbalanced and I suggest a ideological "hate" that sees renewable energy projects as unnecessary green wash.

The fact that Twiggy Forrest is absolutely concerned about Global Warming AND sees a potential gold mine in tackling the issue is anathema.

I am a great believer in Twiggy. Whatevr he pockets in dividends the spinoff is also great for the many shareholders.
To me he is a visionary and may his 20-20 vision last for some time yet.

 

[sptrawler]

I am a great believer in Twiggy. Whatevr he pockets in dividends the spinoff is also great for the many shareholders.
To me he is a visionary and may his 20-20 vision last for some time yet.

One thing for sure, they cant keep going on forever digging up iron ore, eventually it runs out.

 

[farmerge]

One thing for sure, they cant keep going on forever digging up iron ore, eventually it runs out.

Diversification as Twiggy is doing. Looking towards the setting sun. Forward thinking

 

[sptrawler]

Diversification as Twiggy is doing. Looking towards the setting sun. Forward thinking

That is the issue really IMO, it is difficult for a one trick pony like FMG to diversify its income base in Australia, manufacturing is too competitive against third world wages and costs.
So that leaves retail or downstream processing, China doesn't have a huge competitive advantage in the hydrogen processing space, as it does in others, so if there is any upside in hydrogen Twiggy has just as good a chance as anyone else of exploiting it.
So is it better he tries and fails, than not try at all.
I'm not all in, but I have bought a small holding, IMO it is no riskier than the multitude of potash plants scattered around Australia. Lol

 

[qldfrog]

I am a great believer in Twiggy. Whatevr he pockets in dividends the spinoff is also great for the many shareholders.
To me he is a visionary and may his 20-20 vision last for some time yet.

Funny to be seen as hater of FMG ...
No time to answer now, but will try in coming days, too busy to prepare for fully off grid house....

 

[Value Collector]

One thing for sure, they cant keep going on forever digging up iron ore, eventually it runs out.

That’s the good things about the Iron Bridge operation, being able to upgrade the lower grade ores means FMG has perhaps a couple of centuries are production left after the RIO and BHP high grades have been exhausted.

I have heard mining high grade Ore mining described as picking the Sultanas out of a fruit cake or licking the jam of the toast. But FMG’s Iron Bridge project is designed to process the whole cake not just the sultanas.

 

[Value Collector]

I thought that was around $230m plus ? I remember FMG did take a pounding for a couple of months and Twiggy decided it was just too cheap to let go. Or perhaps there was more than one entry ?

Yep, I thought it was a couple of hundred million, but I couldn’t remember for sure, so just said $100 Million in case I was wrong.

 

[farmerge]

That’s the good things about the Iron Bridge operation, being able to upgrade the lower grade ores means FMG has perhaps a couple of centuries are production left after the RIO and BHP high grades have been exhausted.

I have heard mining high grade Ore mining described as picking the Sultanas out of a fruit cake or licking the jam of the toast. But FMG’s Iron Bridge project is designed to process the whole cake not just the sultanas.

Smart bloke is our WA Twiggy

 

[basilio]

Yep, I thought it was a couple of hundred million, but I couldn’t remember for sure, so just said $100 Million in case I was wrong.

Found the information on the larger Twiggy share buys of FMG on the open market. He has regularly bought into the market when he believes it has been badly oversold and represents excellent value.

Contrarian Twiggy tops up on sold-down FMG, sets nickel tongues wagging with Mincor trades

Plus, market’s brutal response to Red 5’s production downgrade ignores the bigger game. It is a good time to be boldly looking beyond the current vapourisation of equity values in response to the coronavirus pandemic to secure what with time, will (hopefully) be seen as astute pick-ups.Mind you...

www.livewiremarkets.com

FMG (ASX) twiggy buys $100m fmg shares

Andrew Forrest's share buying spree fortifies FortescueMICHAEL BENNET From: The Australian September 17, 2011 Andrew Forrest, chairman of Fortescue Metals...

hotcopper.com.au

Andrew Forrest buys up more FMG shares

The value of FMG shares have fallen by around 48 per cent this year, and Andrew ‘Twiggy’ Forrest stepped in

www.australianmining.com.au

 

[farmerge]

Twiggy learnt th hard way with the failed (I think it was Annaconda) all those years ago. Kept his head down and low profile for some time and popped up with FMG, "the new kid on the block" and now it shows he is thinking far and wide outside of the square.
Only wish I had had the foresight to buy in at 1-2c a share way back then. He was telling all and sundry to get on board for the ride of a lifetime.