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Twiggy Forrest can't seem to take a trick these days.
Seems Apple hs ruined another of his forays.
From AFR
Koalas 1. Twiggy 0
Mick
 

Fortescue Future Industries and Statkraft secure power for proposed Holmaneset green hydrogen and green ammonia project​


30 Mar, 2023

Fortescue Future Industries (FFI) has secured renewable power for its proposed Holmaneset green energy project, entering into a long-term Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) with Statkraft.

 
? could FMG fill the gap way down at 17.82 (17.22 on the total return chart below)? Worth pondering

 
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Quarterly production figures released today. A lot of good news on production, shipment and prices. Iron Bridge is almost onstream.
In response the market has smashed the SP to date. Not sure why ?

Strong third quarter performance contributes to record nine month shipments
Summary

• Total Recordable Injury Frequency Rate (TRIFR) of 1.8 at 31 March 2023.

• Iron ore shipments of 46.3 million tonnes (mt) in Q3 FY23 contributed to record shipments for the nine months to 31 March 2023 of 143.1mt.

• Average revenue of US$109/dry metric tonne (dmt), realising 87 per cent of the average Platts 62% CFR Index for the quarter
.
• C1 cost of US$17.73/wet metric tonne (wmt), two per cent higher than H1 FY23.
• Net debt of US$2.1 billion at 31 March 2023, after payment of the interim dividend of US$1.5 billion and capital expenditure of US$681 million in the quarter.
• The first wet concentrate was produced from the Ore Processing Facility at the Iron Bridge Magnetite Project on 21 April 2023, ahead of being pumped to Port Hedland.
• Signed the Mining Convention for the Belinga Iron Ore Project in Gabon, with first mining planned in the second half of calendar 2023
.
• Construction works completed at Fortescue Future Industries’ (FFI) electrolyser manufacturing facility in Gladstone.
• Continued progress on FFI’s priority projects in the USA, Australia, Brazil, Kenya and Norway.
• FFI secured renewable power with a Power Purchase Agreement with Statkraft, in Norway.
• Guidance for FY23 shipments, C1 cost and capital expenditure remains unchanged. Strong performance means the C1 cost is expected to be at the lower end of the range.

Fortescue Metals Chief Executive Officer, Fiona Hick, said “It’s been another strong quarter for our core iron ore business which is a credit to the team and demonstrates our continued focus on safety, production and cost. We achieved record shipments for the nine months to 31 March of 143.1 million tonnes.

“On the Iron Bridge Magnetite Project, I am pleased to report that the first wet concentrate was produced on Friday. The team is very focussed on the safe commissioning and production ramp up.

“This is a significant milestone for Fortescue as Iron Bridge represents our entry into the highest grade segment of the iron ore market, providing an enhanced product range while also increasing production and shipping capacity. It demonstrates our strong track record of successfully delivering complex projects safely.

“Also reinforcing our commitment to investing in growth is the progress underway at the Belinga Iron Ore Project in Gabon. The Mining Convention was signed during the quarter, establishing the legal, fiscal and regulatory regimes for the Project, including an early stage mine development
.
“Fortescue continues to advance its decarbonisation plan as we work towards eliminating emissions from our iron ore operations by 2030. Together with our strong balance sheet and focus on investing in growth, we are well placed to advance our transition to a global green metals and energy company and ensure all stakeholders continue to benefit from Fortescue’s success.”

March Quarterly Production Report (PDF 319.9 KB)
 

Future China expectations? Perhaps they're pricing in a China slow-down
 
I think Friday and today’s market drop was mostly to do with the iron ore price weakening, BHP has dropped heavily too, nothing much to worry about for the long term holder in my opinion. As you pointed out there is lots of good stuff happening.

I also have another theory, I got on a plane and flew to Canada on Friday, and as my mates will tell you FMG always drops heavily when ever I hop on a plane or cruise ship hahaha, it’s the universe’s way of keeping me on my toes ?
 
Ballerina or toe stomper???
 
I have just read this puff piece from the SMH on Twiggy's FMG and its poor performance in iron ore extraction and a multitude of possibilities for FFI to be decided by the end of this year.

I always go to the AFR for good journalism and the SMH hasn't failed this time on serving up a sh*t sandwich with heaps of mayo.


To add to all the maybe's FMG have the begging bowl out for free Government money for FFI seeing as it's "green". As green as Kermit imo. Good luck with that in an inflationary year.

It will be interesting to follow the sp when everyone wakes up to the spark which will ignite the bonfire of dreams.

Hydrogen ... Haha Ha.

gg
 
Going back to the role of iron ore in FMGs immediate economic future as well as producing green steel.

I have to say I was strggling to see where FMG ore output "faltered" as the SMH story said. They also strongly noted the 12% increase in production costs but seemed to have overlooked the far more substantial increase in ore prices for the March quater as compared to last years December figures. I believe we will a decent increase in the overall profits for the past 3 months compared to Dec 2022

Market supporting demand for low grade iron ore​


FMG shipped 46.3Mt in the March quarter and at 143.1Mt year to date, has placed itself to potentially beat last financial year’s record exports of 189Mt. It has set an aim of shipping between 187-192Mt in FY23, including some volume from the US$3.9b Iron Bridge Magnetite operation.

FMG turned out its first concentrate on Friday, though project delays and uncertainty around its ramp up mean the company will ship less than the 1Mt (full run rate 22Mtpa) it had previously pledged for FY23.

The strategy for FMG is to add high grade, premium production suited to a decarbonising world and flight to quality anticipated from steel producers.

At over 67% Fe, Iron Bridge will be able to supply DRI plants which could, potentially, run on green hydrogen at some point in the future, another product FMG wants to become a leader in through its Fortescue Future Industries offshoot.

FMG has been better known as a pedlar of low grade iron ore, trading in an area of the market once neglected by the majors. Its DSO tends to do well at times when steel mills are stressed as they switch purchases to discounted products.


That appetite has been seen in recent months, with Fortescue achieving 87% realisation against Platts 62% Fe prices in the March quarter.

“Data suggests that the rest of world has found its bottom and in China, in particular, we are seeing crude steel production rates and pig iron production rates continue to improve and inventory continue to draw,” FMG marketing chief Vivienne Tieu said.

“Looking ahead, economic growth is a key priority for China in 2023 and we think that this is supportive of the iron ore market.

Given where steel margins are at the moment, they are challenged. So we continue to see a preference for products like ours, and we expect that to continue going forward.”

 
I don’t get it, how is FMG’s Iron Ore exports faltering? Production is pretty much the same as last year and last year was a record production year.

Not to mention Iron Bridge is in the process of ramping up. I smell a journalist that doesn’t seem to know what he is talking about, looking for an alarmist headline.
 

Thanks VC, some headlines and content from the AFR of three or so days ago give quite a contrary view to yours.


I believe it is only natural to stick to a bullish story if you are an iron producer depending on the Wolf Diplomacy of China. Who knows when there may not be a turn in sentiment against Australia or an executive may be up for spying, or some other surprise from the cousins in China. All three, BHP, RIO and FMG are wise to stay positive in the public arena even though they may have negative sentiment privately.


So both the SMH(Ch9) and the AFR journos had access to the same facts but put a completely different spin on it. I just feel sorry for Sandy Stone and his rellies who might be tempted to put money in to FMG via their SMSF just on the spin from the SMH.

FMG may be a good investment, that is what forums like ASF argue about as we speak, but puff pieces in a local newspaper need to be pointed out as they do have an influence on buyers' perception particularly in the Financial Advisory area.

It is the content, not the headline, @Value Collector.

gg
 
Oh the devil is in the detail isn't it, or is it?
Its relatively straightforward and has been for some time.

Q. What is the factor that could effect dividend payout ratio?
A. FCF

What are the capital commitments or forecasts for Fortescue Future Industries?
If not from FCF, then where?
 
Whether or not their iron ore production is “faltering” is not a matter of opinion but a matter of fact, and the fact is they are producing just as much this year as they did last year, and have been selling it at a higher price.

With regards to what the future price will be that is anyone’s guess, and of course will fluctuate. If journalists are going to be alarmists every time the Iron Ore price drops that is up to them, but it’s hardly productive for long term investors to think like that.

Often articles are totally misleading, eg it is guaranteed that FMG’s dividend will be different each year and fluctuate a lot, but journos that write articles with headlines like “FMG’s dividend collapses” etc are just failing at their basic duty to educate the public, In favour of generating alarmist headlines.
 
FMG has been pretty straight forward, they have committed 10% of company earnings to FFI on an ongoing basis, and pay dividends of 50% - 80% of earnings, the balance used to finance mining investments.

If you have watched the companies webcasts about FFI, you would have seen Andrew Explain it is not FMG’s plan to go the 100% ownership route with their large energy projects.

FMG’s 10% earnings that they contribute to FFI is basically going to be used as seed money, providing initial equity for the project, the rest of the capital cost will be funded by Green bonds and outside investors.

It’s industry standard for these types of large energy projects to use up to 70% debt / 30% equity. And Fortescue has said all debt with be non recourse to FMG.
 
Thanks @Value Collector

I myself, never read the headlines.

gg
 
Iron bridge is on stream. First run produced 68% iron concentrate. Twiggy is taking a victory lap.

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd (Fortescue, ASX: FMG) has successfully made its first magnetite product, remarkably at first run grade of greater than 68% Fe.

Further to the successful production of wet concentrate at the Iron Bridge site, it has now been transported through the 135 kilometre specialist slurry pipeline where dewatering and materials handling occurs at Port Hedland to a high grade magnetite product, ready to be shipped and suitable for steel making.

It marks the end of over 20 million work hours on site and almost 20 years of planning. The time and capital (US$0.5 billion) in piloting the highly innovative Iron Bridge process was validated by the Ore Processing Facility achieving specification metal production in its first week of operations.

Iron Bridge will produce 22 million tonnes per annum of high grade magnetite concentrate.

In marking the milestone for the project, Fortescue Executive Chairman, Dr Andrew Forrest AO said, “Iron Bridge is a firm demonstration of our company’s Values, particularly NEGU - Never Ever Give Up determination. Iron Bridge temporarily followed the traditional way of delivering projects before recovering and switching back to our Values of empowerment driven leadership. What a great job the team have now done.

Iron Bridge First Production (PDF 173.8 KB)
 

FMG having the ability to mine Low grade magnetite ores containing 30% Iron and upgrading them to 68% Iron is a huge deal, because there is many times more low grade ores available than there is high grade ores.

For anyone that doesn’t know how the process of upgrading Ore works watch this short video from the 3 min mark.

It shows a mining company in the USA that ran out of high grade Ore about 50 years ago, but has kept operations going by mining the other 90% of ores that are low grade. this technology will ensure the Pilbara can supply ore for over a hundred years long after the high grade ores are gone.

 
With the successful completion of the Iron Bridge magnetite project FMG is looking at an extra 22m tons a year of high value iron ore production. That has to add substantial value to the bottom line of the company. A significant element of the value in the project is the integration of home produced renewable energy into the energy intensive systems required to process the ore.

There will be little value for a few months as production is scaled up but by in the second half of 2023 production and sales figures should reflect the impact of Iron Bridge. Looking forward to some good news.

 
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