FMG - Fortescue Ltd

[Garpal Gumnut]

Can we stop this Green scam propaganda (esp on this thread) and get back to the reality of FMG exporting, highly in demand, Iron Ore that will not cease no matter how much the alarmists dream it will.

Mate I'd agree.

I've never seen a thread that attracts the Green vs Green vs H2 vs Battery vs EV vs ICE vs ... you name it, such as the FMG thread.

A chart of FMG. It is still in a fight between the bulls and the bears around $20, up a bit, down a bit.

The Twiggy effect is is at work. Until the Chinese take the nails out of their citizens locked doors and windows I doubt if Iron ore will advance to a huge degree and FMG lives or dies on Iron ore.

gg

 

[UMike]

Yea. Can't work out whether to buy the dip or hope it gets close to my (personal) target again of $22.8 and sell my March parcel. Haven't traded (anything) in aver a month. Strange times.

 

[dat111]

If you looked back 120 years, and tried to tell people that we are going to get rid of horses and replace them with cars, and to do it we were going to have to build massive oil production, oil refining and refueling infrastructure all around the globe, some people would have done similar math to you and said it was impossible.

But we did build that infrastructure and at the same time we also spent even more building the electric grids around the world, not to mention the roads and highways system too that didn’t exist 120 years ago.

Wow... have you ever taken care of a horse? Have you ever lived without air conditioning or had to split wood or constantly feed a fire with coal? Oil production, oil refining and refueling were all items that were value added to peoples lives... people wanted their lives to change for these improvements. What people are waking up to in the US is that going green means going broke. The quality of life for voters is going down with the push for green alternatives.

Oh by the way oil and gas is reported as 8% of the gross world product... So if the money spent on oil and gas would be used to fund production of green energy replacement... it would take 14,260 years....

 

[dat111]

Can we stop this Green scam propaganda (esp on this thread) and get back to the reality of FMG exporting, highly in demand, Iron Ore that will not cease no matter how much the alarmists dream it will.

If you own FMG you are investing in green energy...

 

[Value Collector]

Wow... have you ever taken care of a horse? Have you ever lived without air conditioning or had to split wood or constantly feed a fire with coal? Oil production, oil refining and refueling were all items that were value added to peoples lives... people wanted their lives to change for these improvements. What people are waking up to in the US is that going green means going broke. The quality of life for voters is going down with the push for green alternatives.

Oh by the way oil and gas is reported as 8% of the gross world product... So if the money spent on oil and gas would be used to fund production of green energy replacement... it would take 14,260 years....

How much of the 1920’s gdp do we currently spend on oil?

I really don’t see what your issue is, as I asked before do you really think the world is going to run out of money?

FMG will will make as many investments as it can based on its retained earnings + what ever it can get from capital partners and bonds whether that 1 project, 10 projects or 100 projects doesn’t really matter, all share holders want is for retained earnings to be invested in things that produce suitable returns, you macro predictions on cost and scale are totally irrelevant in my opinion.

If green energy takes longer than expected to scale up, we will just keep pumping out fossil fuels and take what ever hit comes with that (which could be bad), but green energy is really ramping up, and I don’t see any reason it won’t continue ramping up, and then the fossil fuel companies will exit the scene over time.

 

[divs4ever]

Solar and wind is 20-30 years
Hydro can be over 100 years.

Of course you have to spend a little to maintain them over that time, but you also have to maintain oil and gas rigs, and coal mining equipment and of course the actual power stations and refineries.

If your solar system lasted only 5 years, and was covered by a warranty I think you were sold some dodge equipment.

Origin is debating that now despite the fact an extended 10 year warranty was taken out , and BTW best of luck accessing the ombudsman when trying to assist the resolution of issues

one problem is the way it was wired , one panel ( or more ) fail and the system goes down ( and the technician has no easy way to determine which one/s have failed , since there is no obvious hail or tree damage )
the other one was a fan failure causing the inverter board to fry , that may have been partly caused by placing it for ease of meter reading rather than weather/sun protection , luckily the inverter overheat did not start a fire to the weatherboard home ( something for those new to solar systems to consider )

 

[Value Collector]

Origin is debating that now despite the fact an extended 10 year warranty was taken out , and BTW best of luck accessing the ombudsman when trying to assist the resolution of issues

one problem is the way it was wired , one panel ( or more ) fail and the system goes down ( and the technician has no easy way to determine which one/s have failed , since there is no obvious hail or tree damage )
the other one was a fan failure causing the inverter board to fry , that may have been partly caused by placing it for ease of meter reading rather than weather/sun protection , luckily the inverter overheat did not start a fire to the weatherboard home ( something for those new to solar systems to consider )

Next time spend a few extra dollars and get a micro inverter system, each panel then has its own inverter, so if a panel or inverter fails only that one stops, the rest keep working

Also micro inverters have a 25 year warranty.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Many years ago there was a good punt one could do with AMP on a medium term basis buying at $4 and selling above $6, from memory, it went on for some time.

I just wonder whether with all the kerfuffle about the world pushing commodities potentially down and Twiggy spruiking FMG up, one could not "do an AMP" with Fortescue Metals Group.

From the chart it has oscillated over the last 3 years between $15 and $25.

I'm not greedy so I'll re-enter at $16 or so and sell at $23.

That RSI and fall off in up volume and decrease on the down does not bode well for FMG.

And I would bet that similar to the ASF thread on ASF, at FFI there are similar "going off topic" "conversations" about energy occurring when they should be working to make FMG a bigger and better company.

gg

 

[UMike]

If you own FMG you are investing in green energy...

And will invest in more Green energy.
Climate calamity is a scam.... May as well make some money off it as Govt subsidizes it.

 

[Value Collector]

Many years ago there was a good punt one could do with AMP on a medium term basis buying at $4 and selling above $6, from memory, it went on for some time.

I just wonder whether with all the kerfuffle about the world pushing commodities potentially down and Twiggy spruiking FMG up, one could not "do an AMP" with Fortescue Metals Group.

From the chart it has oscillated over the last 3 years between $15 and $25.

I'm not greedy so I'll re-enter at $16 or so and sell at $23.

That RSI and fall off in up volume and decrease on the down does not bode well for FMG.

And I would bet that similar to the ASF thread on ASF, at FFI there are similar "going off topic" "conversations" about energy occurring when they should be working to make FMG a bigger and better company.

View attachment 142467

gg

Markets will of course fluctuate but I think FMG is so undervalued that when the market finally recognises its true value it will be rerated a lot higher.

So there is a chance that FMG will never hit $16 again, and also if you sold at $23 you may end up regretting it when it hits $35.

Of course I could be wrong, but only time will tell I guess, in the mean time the dividends alone make the buy and hold route very attractive, and the eventually long pull pay off should be sweet to, so I don’t bother trading FMG, I do sell put options on it regularly though.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Markets will of course fluctuate but I think FMG is so undervalued that when the market finally recognises its true value it will be rerated a lot higher.

So there is a chance that FMG will never hit $16 again, and also if you sold at $23 you may end up regretting it when it hits $35.

Of course I could be wrong, but only time will tell I guess, in the mean time the dividends alone make the buy and hold route very attractive, and the eventually long pull pay off should be sweet to, so I don’t bother trading FMG, I do sell put options on it regularly though.

One can buy and sell FMG and collect every divi as well, is another way to look at it.

Another way to go.

I hear what you are saying, I'm usually buy for medium-long term in my SMSF.

FMG is what it is, and good luck to us all if Twiggy pulls it off.

gg

 

[dat111]

And will invest in more Green energy.
Climate calamity is a scam.... May as well make some money off it as Govt subsidizes it.

Until the government decides they can no longer continue to keep the subsidizes going and they mothball the whole thing sticking those folks who invested... For example the following lists some of the faltering or bankrupt green-energy companies when the House and the Senate pulled the plug:

1. Evergreen Solar ($24 million)*
2. SpectraWatt ($500,000)*
3. Solyndra ($535 million)*
4. Beacon Power ($69 million)*
5. AES’s subsidiary Eastern Energy ($17.1 million)
6. Nevada Geothermal ($98.5 million)
7. SunPower ($1.5 billion)
8. First Solar ($1.46 billion)
9. Babcock and Brown ($178 million)
10. EnerDel’s subsidiary Ener1 ($118.5 million)*
11. Amonix ($5.9 million)
12. National Renewable Energy Lab ($200 million)
13. Fisker Automotive ($528 million)
14. Abound Solar ($374 million)*
15. A123 Systems ($279 million)*
16. Willard and Kelsey Solar Group ($6 million)
17. Johnson Controls ($299 million)
18. Schneider Electric ($86 million)
19. Brightsource ($1.6 billion)
20. ECOtality ($126.2 million)
21. Raser Technologies ($33 million)*
22. Energy Conversion Devices ($13.3 million)*
23. Mountain Plaza, Inc. ($2 million)*
24. Olsen’s Crop Service and Olsen’s Mills Acquisition Company ($10 million)*
25. Range Fuels ($80 million)*
26. Thompson River Power ($6.4 million)*
27. Stirling Energy Systems ($7 million)*
28. LSP Energy ($2.1 billion)*
29. UniSolar ($100 million)*
30. Azure Dynamics ($120 million)*
31. GreenVolts ($500,000)
32. Vestas ($50 million)
33. LG Chem’s subsidiary Compact Power ($150 million)
34. Nordic Windpower ($16 million)*
35. Navistar ($10 million)
36. Satcon ($3 million)*

 

[divs4ever]

Markets will of course fluctuate but I think FMG is so undervalued that when the market finally recognises its true value it will be rerated a lot higher.

So there is a chance that FMG will never hit $16 again, and also if you sold at $23 you may end up regretting it when it hits $35.

Of course I could be wrong, but only time will tell I guess, in the mean time the dividends alone make the buy and hold route very attractive, and the eventually long pull pay off should be sweet to, so I don’t bother trading FMG, I do sell put options on it regularly though.

well i didn't sell those FMG i bought at several prices under $20 ( i thought sub-$20 was fair value for FMG and unless there is a major change , i think i will stick to them )

now i think the world still has a few more moments of 'CRAZY ' left and say $16 is possible for those patient but alert ( but since i have a comfortable amount of FMG i will not be heart-broken if i miss an opportunity or two )

 

[dat111]

How much of the 1920’s gdp do we currently spend on oil?

I really don’t see what your issue is, as I asked before do you really think the world is going to run out of money?

FMG will will make as many investments as it can based on its retained earnings + what ever it can get from capital partners and bonds whether that 1 project, 10 projects or 100 projects doesn’t really matter, all share holders want is for retained earnings to be invested in things that produce suitable returns, you macro predictions on cost and scale are totally irrelevant in my opinion.

If green energy takes longer than expected to scale up, we will just keep pumping out fossil fuels and take what ever hit comes with that (which could be bad), but green energy is really ramping up, and I don’t see any reason it won’t continue ramping up, and then the fossil fuel companies will exit the scene over time.

My job as an investor is to figure out how to make money while I am investing. I must use the information around me to make the best decisions that I can... I do not think Australia and the world has enough money to go green during my investment time horizon. I think governments will continue to push to go green for awhile longer but before my investment time horizon ends, governments will change their strategy and go back to fossil energy friendly policies which will drive down the value of green stocks. I don't want FMG to invest in something that is propped up by the government because the government doesn't care as much as I do about making money...

 

[divs4ever]

My job as an investor is to figure out how to make money while I am investing. I must use the information around me to make the best decisions that I can... I do not think Australia and the world has enough money to go green during my investment time horizon. I think governments will continue to push to go green for awhile longer but before my investment time horizon ends, governments will change their strategy and go back to fossil energy friendly policies which will drive down the value of green stocks. I don't want FMG to invest in something that is propped up by the government because the government doesn't care as much as I do about making money...

they have plenty of money , they will just print it ( and steal it from the taxpayers of the future )

didn't you know fiscal responsibility has been abandoned ( in many places )

i understand how you feel , but we are in the new age of irrationality , where QT is more feared than smallpox or ebola

 

[Value Collector]

My job as an investor is to figure out how to make money while I am investing. I must use the information around me to make the best decisions that I can...

If that’s your goal you are going about it the wrong way, instead of trying to figure out whether the world can afford to go 100% green energy and using the numbers you are, you should be simply trying to figure out whether FMG will earn an acceptable return each time they deploy cash into these sorts of projects.

It doesn’t matter how many trillion it will take for the world to go 100% green, all that matters is whether each FMG project will earn more than say 8% - 10% on the invested capital.

 

[Value Collector]

Until the government decides they can no longer continue to keep the subsidizes going and they mothball the whole thing sticking those folks who invested... For example the following lists some of the faltering or bankrupt green-energy companies when the House and the Senate pulled the plug:

1. Evergreen Solar ($24 million)*
2. SpectraWatt ($500,000)*
3. Solyndra ($535 million)*
4. Beacon Power ($69 million)*
5. AES’s subsidiary Eastern Energy ($17.1 million)
6. Nevada Geothermal ($98.5 million)
7. SunPower ($1.5 billion)
8. First Solar ($1.46 billion)
9. Babcock and Brown ($178 million)
10. EnerDel’s subsidiary Ener1 ($118.5 million)*
11. Amonix ($5.9 million)
12. National Renewable Energy Lab ($200 million)
13. Fisker Automotive ($528 million)
14. Abound Solar ($374 million)*
15. A123 Systems ($279 million)*
16. Willard and Kelsey Solar Group ($6 million)
17. Johnson Controls ($299 million)
18. Schneider Electric ($86 million)
19. Brightsource ($1.6 billion)
20. ECOtality ($126.2 million)
21. Raser Technologies ($33 million)*
22. Energy Conversion Devices ($13.3 million)*
23. Mountain Plaza, Inc. ($2 million)*
24. Olsen’s Crop Service and Olsen’s Mills Acquisition Company ($10 million)*
25. Range Fuels ($80 million)*
26. Thompson River Power ($6.4 million)*
27. Stirling Energy Systems ($7 million)*
28. LSP Energy ($2.1 billion)*
29. UniSolar ($100 million)*
30. Azure Dynamics ($120 million)*
31. GreenVolts ($500,000)
32. Vestas ($50 million)
33. LG Chem’s subsidiary Compact Power ($150 million)
34. Nordic Windpower ($16 million)*
35. Navistar ($10 million)
36. Satcon ($3 million)*

Fmg doesn’t rely on government funding, they earn billions in profit each year, and have already been steadily investing in green energy, for example in the Pilbara they already have invested in solar projects which are being used to run the Iron Ore mines and producing massive savings in diesel and gas, especially based on current diesel and gas prices.

I think that is what you are not understanding, you are looking at the whole thing back to front, think smaller and instead of looking at it from what the whole world needs, just look at it from FMGs perspective where they are just making incremental capital allocations into green energy both to create savings for themselves by offsetting their own energy usage, and also selling energy into the market.

 

[divs4ever]

If that’s your goal you are going about it the wrong way, instead of trying to figure out whether the world can afford to go 100% green energy and using the numbers you are, you should be simply trying to figure out whether FMG will earn an acceptable return each time they deploy cash into these sorts of projects.

It doesn’t matter how many trillion it will take for the world to go 100% green, all that matters is whether each FMG project will earn more than say 8% - 10% on the invested capital.

that was what i am hoping for when i invested in the first parcel in August 2021 , my average share price is $17.90 so maybe i can even get 11% some years

 

[dat111]

they have plenty of money , they will just print it ( and steal it from the taxpayers of the future )

didn't you know fiscal responsibility has been abandoned ( in many places )

i understand how you feel , but we are in the new age of irrationality , where QT is more feared than smallpox or ebola

It is somewhat OK to print money if you have methods of providing the items at the same or reduced cost...but when it is not possible to provide the item at the same or reduced cost and the cost to manufacture goes up then prining money will cause inflation to be at a rate that will eventually cause austerity measurers to occur. the price o cost of the item increases and the

Fmg doesn’t rely on government funding, they earn billions in profit each year, and have already been steadily investing in green energy, for example in the Pilbara they already have invested in solar projects which are being used to run the Iron Ore mines and producing massive savings in diesel and gas, especially based on current diesel and gas prices.

I think that is what you are not understanding, you are looking at the whole thing back to front, think smaller and instead of looking at it from what the whole world needs, just look at it from FMGs perspective where they are just making incremental capital allocations into green energy both to create savings for themselves by offsetting their own energy usage, and also selling energy into the market.

Fortescue Future Industries has signed a memorandum of understanding with a European utility company to distribute its green hydrogen to the continent.

Working with German utility company E.ON, Fortescue Future Industries (FFI) plans to export up to five million tonnes of green hydrogen to Europe by 2030. This is equivalent to about one third of the energy imported from Russia to Germany. Fortescue founder Andrew Forrest said that reaching FFI’s targets could cost up to $50 billion.

The commitment was signed by Mr Forrest and E.ON chief operating officer Patrick Lammers at a press conference on Tuesday. The companies will engage in a research and study partnership with more detailed supply plans to be completed in the future.

Mr Forrest said that shipments to Europe would initially be in the form of green ammonia and split into hydrogen upon arrival. However, Mr Forrest also wants to eventually ship liquefied hydrogen to Europe.

This is where the 450,000 MW of electricity is going to be needed....that led to the 100s of billions of dollars needed to fund this simply excercise to make hydrogen...

 

[Value Collector]

It is somewhat OK to print money if you have methods of providing the items at the same or reduced cost...but when it is not possible to provide the item at the same or reduced cost and the cost to manufacture goes up then prining money will cause inflation to be at a rate that will eventually cause austerity measurers to occur. the price o cost of the item increases and the

Fortescue Future Industries has signed a memorandum of understanding with a European utility company to distribute its green hydrogen to the continent.

Working with German utility company E.ON, Fortescue Future Industries (FFI) plans to export up to five million tonnes of green hydrogen to Europe by 2030. This is equivalent to about one third of the energy imported from Russia to Germany. Fortescue founder Andrew Forrest said that reaching FFI’s targets could cost up to $50 billion.

The commitment was signed by Mr Forrest and E.ON chief operating officer Patrick Lammers at a press conference on Tuesday. The companies will engage in a research and study partnership with more detailed supply plans to be completed in the future.

Mr Forrest said that shipments to Europe would initially be in the form of green ammonia and split into hydrogen upon arrival. However, Mr Forrest also wants to eventually ship liquefied hydrogen to Europe.

This is where the 450,000 MW of electricity is going to be needed....that led to the 100s of billions of dollars needed to fund this simply excercise to make hydrogen...

Yep, firstly Forrest says it’s $50 Billion not $100’s of Billions.

But what is your point, I read that announcement the day it was released, it’s a non binding MOU, they aren’t locked into anything. Both companies are just saying they will work with each other towards the goal of shipping hydrogen from Australia to Europe. If 2030 comes and FMG is only shipping 1 million tonnes instead of 5 million tonnes there is no penalty.

As I said FMG will just crunch the numbers on each project, line them up in order of most profitable, and start working on them, and as long as each one produces decent returns on capital FMG will do very well and financing them will be easy.

But, there is no penalty if they don’t achieve all projects they can dream up in the next 10 years, a big part of a company like FMG, BHP, RIO etc etc is lining up as many possible projects as you can and then have them compete for capital, and you allocate capital to each project based on its merit, when you have the funding to do it.