over9k
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China's announced some output cuts etc. Jitters.
FMG - Fortescue Ltd
- Thread starter GreatPig
- Start date
China's announced some output cuts etc. Jitters.
DrBourse
If you don't Ask, you don't Get.
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Hi Grey, agree with the $18.00, that line (or a bit lower), is very interesting as FMG's IV is abt $23 atm - for me, Candles & a ST CCI indicator will call the tune at that level.
Would love to get back in ASAP, I feel that the "Double Top & the $12 call" is a bit "out of the ball park."
As mentioned in my previous posts, was never going to get involved like this again, so this is an experiment.
CYA
Would love to get back in ASAP, I feel that the "Double Top & the $12 call" is a bit "out of the ball park."
As mentioned in my previous posts, was never going to get involved like this again, so this is an experiment.
CYA
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FMG currently around $18.15 with a intra-day low of $18.12
take care
take care
over9k
So I didn't tell my wife, but I...
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Result:
Pretty obvious downtrend, and the northern hemisphere is heading into winter too.
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popped down to $17.97 briefly
back above $18 now
took a deep breath and moved the order up to $17.70 , just in case , i get lucky today
PS this is NOT a big buy , only a modest size one
back above $18 now
took a deep breath and moved the order up to $17.70 , just in case , i get lucky today
PS this is NOT a big buy , only a modest size one
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If your expectations are $2 per year dividends and your comfortable that FGM can deliver those results at ore prices from $80 p/tonne then $18 plus a share is excellent value
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i am expecting the Australian dollar to stay soft enough to make FMG profitable at a lesser price
so $1 Australian per six months shouldn't be difficult as long as they can ship to a customer ( and these day that can't be certain either )
so $1 Australian per six months shouldn't be difficult as long as they can ship to a customer ( and these day that can't be certain either )
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| Recommendation | Performance |
06/09/2021ReduceFair Value $15.10 Liquidity HighReduceon 03/09/2021
|
now obviously i am not operating on Morningstar advice , but just to show there is the odd pessimist out there
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Took my own advice and topped up at $18. 
Certainly some nervous nellies out there.
Certainly some nervous nellies out there.
DrBourse
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Todays CCI is showing the 1st Buy signal, but will we get the other 4 signals over the next few days, or will it be FMG punters firing yet another Blank.
And will the MFI offer the required Confirmation signals??
The 5th Signal is missing - Correct, thats for you to work out.
And will the MFI offer the required Confirmation signals??
The 5th Signal is missing - Correct, thats for you to work out.
Last edited:
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i am betting a lot of that nervousness is coming from factors outside FMG ( unlike a share such as AMP or MYR )Took my own advice and topped up at $18.
Certainly some nervous nellies out there.
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I give myself Thu-Fri for my next top up parcel, let the dice roll
over9k
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I'm not, but:If your expectations are $2 per year dividends and your comfortable that FGM can deliver those results at ore prices from $80 p/tonne then $18 plus a share is excellent value
An AUD tank is a major factor in competitiveness.
My thoughts exactly.
The company itself is great, it's the actual sector/industry itself that I'm worried about.
over9k
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AUD's just run in response to this:
AU's heading into summer too so a drop in the exchange rate is looking iffy.
AU's heading into summer too so a drop in the exchange rate is looking iffy.
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MorningstarTM Premium
05 Sep 2021
More details about Morning Star Premium
Reduce
Fair value $13.00
Lowering Our Fair Value Estimate for Fortescue Post the Massive Dividend
Was Reduce on 02 Sep 2021
( changed since this morning )
** My thoughts exactly.
The company itself is great, it's the actual sector/industry itself that I'm worried about. **
yes i am more an investor than a trader , so in my mind i am buying a part of a company ( not renting a quick trip to another price destination )
but goodness how much worse can global manufacturing fall before chaos ensues
what will be worth watching is if FMG can profit from mutual respect with China ( compared to some who are busy trying to gouge an extra edge ) ( some like RIO and BHP might easily shoot themselves in the foot )
remember China was credited with saving Australia from the worst of the GFC
05 Sep 2021
More details about Morning Star Premium
Reduce
Fair value $13.00
Lowering Our Fair Value Estimate for Fortescue Post the Massive Dividend
Was Reduce on 02 Sep 2021
( changed since this morning )
** My thoughts exactly.
The company itself is great, it's the actual sector/industry itself that I'm worried about. **
yes i am more an investor than a trader , so in my mind i am buying a part of a company ( not renting a quick trip to another price destination )
but goodness how much worse can global manufacturing fall before chaos ensues
what will be worth watching is if FMG can profit from mutual respect with China ( compared to some who are busy trying to gouge an extra edge ) ( some like RIO and BHP might easily shoot themselves in the foot )
remember China was credited with saving Australia from the worst of the GFC
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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Attempting to anticipate a bottom from any indicator or number of indicators is as accurate as an archer on ICE.
I expect FMG to find a bottom closer to $14. Too busy to mark a chart but can do.
over9k
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If you take a look over in the virus thread I made a post showing how demand has dropped significantly too.
Once all the tv's, playstations, couches, desks etc are bought they don't need to be bought again for quite a while. Then you get seasonality slowing things as we head into winter (not going to do a lot of construction work in the snow if you can help it) and so on and so forth...
It looks like this winter is going to be much more like we were expecting the last one to be before all the vaccines were announced.
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DrBourse
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Agreed, but I'm not "Attempting to anticipate a bottom" - and I don't have the time to explain how indicators produce entry signals to you.
over9k
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Trading based on technicals is playing with fire in this market IMO.
(Also, probably worth thinking about who you were being sharp with, tech/a has written numerous guides on technicals trading...)
DrBourse
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Hi over9k - I have never traded anything based on just Technicals - as a Technimental Trader my Stock Selection is based on 60% Financial Analysis and 40% Technical Analysis - If a stock does not meet my FA criteria then I do not bother with its TA - Once I locate a Financially Sound Stock, then I proceed to look at its TA.
FMG's IV is about $23.00, so proceeding to the TA stage is warranted.
PS, I've also written & published a lot of TA Guides and Manuals, and conducted numerous Public Seminars on the subject of TA.
