FMG - Fortescue Ltd

[qldfrog]

That is the assumption I was mentioning, that is dangerous, you are assuming they can't just click their fingers and reduce steel production, when in reality they can if they wish so.
A capitalist country couldn't but a country like China can, on a whim they can cut back growth and infrastructure projects and mothball furnaces it actually is that easy for them.

Iron ore is the most current on earth.they can just decide to boycott our ore and pay a little more for other sources, knowing they have huge stockpiles to smooth the switch, as to the low quality cheap profuct, my Huawei smartphone was 3y ahead of iphone.all computers laptops are built there etc etc
Low quality is the lowest pricedoes not have to be so, offer decent price and you get high quality..yet still cheaper then other places.
Fmg could be slaughtered with a ban signature in a bj office....
it is all good..until it is not

 

[noirua]

Those of us following coal and iron ore back to 2000 will know all about the volatility of both. So I've just kept a small interest in the sector knowing it's possible to make up to 60 times what is invested in the 2003 to 2009 runup. Or after that date lose up to 90% on the reversal.

Iron ore price leaps into 2021

Iron ore opens new year with a bang as Chinese crude steel output set top one billion tonnes for the first time.

www.mining.com

 

[over9k]

Iron ore is the most current on earth.they can just decide to boycott our ore and pay a little more for other sources, knowing they have huge stockpiles to smooth the switch, as to the low quality cheap profuct, my Huawei smartphone was 3y ahead of iphone.all computers laptops are built there etc etc
Low quality is the lowest pricedoes not have to be so, offer decent price and you get high quality..yet still cheaper then other places.
Fmg could be slaughtered with a ban signature in a bj office....
it is all good..until it is not

Yeah but china needs the ore & coal far more than AU needs the money frog, hence australia actually holding the whip here.

If AU was to just stop exporting iron ore (or coal) it would make the power that OPEC has with its oil supply look like child's play.

 

[joeno]

1) Never said it was a small market. Iron/Steel is a global essential commodity. Let me know when we can make forks and cars cheaply from silver lol.

2) If China is not there to supply the the iron/steel products, someone else will. China is not consuming and producing iron products while the rest of the world does something different. As VC said China currently buys the Iron due to global demand of iron products.

China's demography: yes... and? 2020 demographics vs 2040 projected demographics. In what way are FMG holders supposed to pee ourselves?

Oil Balance: we're talking about iron. Not oil. So they import a lot of oil. And what?

Coal power: again, moot point.

Debt to GDP: so it's going up. Good. Chinese are spending more. It's pretty much the basis for the US economy: consume more than what is created.

China's political alliances in the world: no it is not lunacy. It is a fact. How many African countries, Middle Eastern countries, South American, FSU countries (which comprise of the majority of countries in the world) currently have a political feud with China? Not only do they side with China, many side with China *against* America. You're the one that said China is on every country's sh*tlist, i'm just pointing out the fact it isn't true. It is not whether i like it or not. It's just a fact.

If you really believe in what you're saying then simply sell FMG and short iron ore. I missed out on picking up more earliest this year

Right so you clearly have no idea. China is not "a big market", China buys about 2/3rds of the world's shipped iron ore. For australia specifically, it purchased 87 per cent of iron ore sold by Australian producers in 2019-20 when the value of the trade hit a record $102 billion.

It is not a big market or whatever you want to describe it as, it's as near as makes no difference the country's only market. A couple of years ago a big deal was made when FMG managed to get 11% of its exports to non-chinese customers. Leaving china being, you know, 89% of its business.


It is also primed for an implosion:

View attachment 117901View attachment 117900View attachment 117903View attachment 117904View attachment 117899View attachment 117902View attachment 117905View attachment 117906

China is an incredibly precarious country and it would (will) take absolutely sweet **** all to knock over this apple cart. The rest of your post about it being on good terms with everyone etc etc is just lunacy, and the fact that it is on such bad terms with everyone whilst being so vulnerable is precisely why political risk is so significant here.

We aren't talking about a strong country with which if relations with the world go sour it won't actually effect money/business that much. We are talking about the opposite. The whole country could be brought to a virtual standstill if any one of malaysia, singapore, or indonesia decided to close its shipping routes to them just for one example of dozens.

There is no country in the world more reliant on political stability than china. None.

 

[over9k]

"debt to gdp going up is good"

Look dude half your post is nonsensical and the other half is just plain wrong. A dead giveaway that you've been caught with your pants down talking shite about something you thought you understood but actually did not. You clearly don't even understand the relationships between demographics & economics.

I have explained why coal power is so relevant. It's not moot at all and the fact that you think it is is precisely what proves how clueless you actually are.

Nor do you even understand what I was saying as you've made a complete strawman of it with your "hurr just short fmg then" drivel. I never said it's all going to fall apart tomorrow, I said it's exposed to political risk in a way that no other country is. These are completely different statements.

It is also clear that you are very, very, young.

 

[qldfrog]

Yeah but china needs the ore & coal far more than AU needs the money frog, hence australia actually holding the whip here.

If AU was to just stop exporting iron ore (or coal) it would make the power that OPEC has with its oil supply look like child's play.

We do not go 5km under the sea to get iron or coal.boths commodities are very very common.and china got both internally or in Mongolia which is same.. australia has no leverage.wecan believe otherwise but the earth was made so.i can not be blamed for facts.
And in my opinion,this is FMG issue.to a lesser extend Rio and BHP.and i do not mention the minors.

 

[over9k]

Rubbish. Australia provides 55% of the world's iron ore and enough of china's coal to take a fifth of its electricity production offline. China's alternatives are about 50% more expensive than australian coal and electricity is approximately 60% of the cost of producing steel (yes, really).

They need australian coal far more than they care to admit/that people realise. In fact, the whole world does. Remember, this stuff doesn't happen in a vacuum.

People do not realise just how much australia is half the planet's quarry.

 

[qldfrog]

Australia provides 55% of the world's iron ore and enough of china's coal to take a fifth of its electricity production offline

Get a bit of knowledge in that area, first part is true (even if it implies that we have a monopoly which is wrong, we are just nearer cheaper and willing to export ships of dirt whereas other places force refining)
, second point is absolutely rubbish; And I mean real rubbish: 100% false...
Now, the absence of knowledge/education in that area is actually a bonus:
most people have no clue about the difference between thermal or coking coal; but the boycott of Australian coal imports has nothing to do about China power production.It is a fact .
Where you are blessed is that 95% of people share your "absence of knowledge" (I do not want nor mean to be insulting), and as such funds, medias and investors share the narrative, and truth is nothing, narrative is everything especially at this stage of the bubble.
Look at your zoom success, inferior product, no real sales, I was skyping/wechat 4y ago across the world with better.and working tools, yet the lemmings jump in and you have a win.
If you want to discard facts and only go for the narrative (the fake news term is not trendy anymore), all good:
and this is why i am trading systems, probably the way to make money at the moment,
but do not "rubbish" truth and facts, just be aware
For FMG, it just mean they face a serious political risk, can come at any time, but yesterday BHP jumped up higher while losing billions in the coal ban...who cares about profits

 

[over9k]

You're going to have to back those assertions up with something frog, because china's actually looking at rolling blackouts & factories have panic-bought diesel generators as a result of the lack of australian coal they've had lately.

Did you not read my other big post?

 

[Value Collector]

You're going to have to back those assertions up with something frog, because china's actually looking at rolling blackouts & factories have panic-bought diesel generators as a result of the lack of australian coal they've had lately.

Did you not read my other big post?

Frogs claim that China could use its “Huge stockpiles” to smooth a transition to internally sourced iron is just completely false.

China only holds about 25 days of Iron ore supply, that is hardly “Huge”, and he is dreaming if he thinks Chinese production can be ramped up to anything like Australian production any time soon if ever.

I must admit Frogs posts in regards to both FMG and On the Electric car thread have become so cynical I am actually glad he has blocked me, they are not worth reading, the only time I see them is when I forget to log in so they pop up.

 

[over9k]

Frogs claim that China could use its “Huge stockpiles” to smooth a transition to internally sourced iron is just completely false.

China only holds about 25 days of Iron ore supply, that is hardly “Huge”, and he is dreaming if he thinks Chinese production can be ramped up to anything like Australian production any time soon if ever.

I must admit Frogs posts in regards to both FMG and On the Electric car thread have become so cynical I am actually glad he has blocked me, they are not worth reading, the only time I see them is when I forget to log in so they pop up.

I posted the data in my other big post. Their alternatives, if they can even get them online, are 50% more expensive, which would destroy their competitiveness even assuming they can physically supply themselves (which they can't).

I keep saying this: China is a net importer of everything it needs. Energy, oil, food, everything. Disrupt the supply of any of those things, and it's in a lot of trouble, hence the sensitivity to political risk.

 

[qldfrog]

You're going to have to back those assertions up with something frog, because china's actually looking at rolling blackouts & factories have panic-bought diesel generators as a result of the lack of australian coal they've had lately.

Did you not read my other big post?

FFS
I give up: the overwhelming amount of the coal we export to China is NOT burnt in power station, 95pc of coal used for energy in china is domestic and indonesia on its own can easily fill the banned australian thermal coal gap.
if you feel better believing otherwise, I can do nothing for you.
Look you win, the Chinese are in the black because of the ban.. @over9k said it so it is true
now back to FMS where china is trembling at the prospect of an Australian blocus...

 

[qldfrog]

You're going to have to back those assertions up with something frog, because china's actually looking at rolling blackouts & factories have panic-bought diesel generators as a result of the lack of australian coal they've had lately.

Did you not read my other big post?

Backing links in other thread about "f.ck china" or any google search on australian coal export and coal ussge in china once people can distinguish between thermal or coking coal.apples and oranges ...

 

[qldfrog]

Backing links in other thread about "f.ck china" or any google search on australian coal export and coal ussge in china once people can distinguish between thermal or coking coal.apples and oranges ...

Life is too short...

 

[basilio]

Iron Ore prices are still powering on. So naturally FMG SP is responding. It will be interesting to see 6 monthly financial report.

Iron ore price hits fresh 9-and-half year high

Iron ore prices are already up 8% in 2021 after customs data showed Chinese imports hitting a record high of 1.2 billion tonnes.

www.mining.com

 

[over9k]

Yeah, one thing I've learned not to do is bet against twiggy.

Here's how it compares with the other pie he now has a finger in too, MCR:

I hold both, not selling either.

 

[Value Collector]

Iron Ore prices are still powering on. So naturally FMG SP is responding. It will be interesting to see 6 monthly financial report.

Iron ore price hits fresh 9-and-half year high

Iron ore prices are already up 8% in 2021 after customs data showed Chinese imports hitting a record high of 1.2 billion tonnes.

www.mining.com

Never in my wildest imaginations did I predict Iron Ore would be this strong for this long, definitely looking forward to seeing the 6 monthly and finding out what our dividend is going to be.

 

[over9k]

Just wait until all the various infrastructure packages governments across the entire world are planning get announced

 

[over9k]

Obviously relevant for FMG holders.

 

[basilio]

Twiggy Forest, Chairman of Fortescue Metals, has been redirecting his energy to producing green hydrogen on a vast scale with the final intention of of producing green steel and revolutionizing Australias energy and steel industry. Just spent 5 months touring the investment centres around the world to create the framework for this nation changing venture.

Twiggy also sees this as an essential part of dealing with CC in the very near future. He is producing the Boyer Lectures on the ABC this year with the theme being Rebooting Australia: How ethical entrepreneurs can help shape a better future,.

Powerful stuff. I will repost this in other relevant threads.

'The solution is hydrogen': Andrew Forrest lays out his plan to address climate change

Green hydrogen gives Australia an opportunity to slash our emissions — and if we get this right, the impact could be nothing short of nation-building, argues business leader Andrew Forrest.

www.abc.net.au