Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Then obviously a green today +4%.

Don't hold but very positive looking "candle" today .... Good luck to you guys who hold:cool:

ps. I think Twiggy (even with all his multi-millions, is a legend Aussie, so good luck to him also)
 
One thing I found interesting is that the announcement (Quarterly) came out early in the day and there was plenty of time to read / review and buy if happy.

But instead of buying FMG was down -2.9% yesterday

Then obviously a green today +4%.

Maybe people were unsure about the US Markets (that includes me) and they had a good night so maybe that was the trigger?



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I was surprised about that as well. Perhaps, after whatever reservations were expressed with yesterdays sell off, investors looked at the SP, the quarterly figures, the dividends, the cost analysis and thought "Yep this still makes sense".

I wouldn't be surprised if some of the buying comes from inside FMG management and the company itself. After announcing the Quarterly results there is no question of insider trading - and the figures were very good.:2twocents
 
AGM coming up for FMG. Obviously doing exceptionally well on the Iron Ore front. Now Andrew Forrest is focusing on developing vast new renewable energy projects investing some of the billions of dollars of cash generated by the current iron ore export.

The renewable energy projects will firstly reduce to zero all the current costs associated with their venture. After that they are looking at exceptionally large export markets of Green hydrogen, H2 produced ammonia, green fertilisers.

 
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Zero plans to sell my FMG position.
 
Just watched a twiggy interview on bloomberg. He near as no difference said he's transitioning a lot of his business into being a renewable energy business. Considering the amount of energy needed to actually produce steel, it makes a lot of sense ;)

I've posted in the MCR thread as well.
 
Based on the $93 Iron ore price they averaged last year, they had a return on equity of 44.6%, which is very high and probably won't hang around forever, although with the current $120 Iron ore price they are probably earning 60% ROE.

Based on different possible ROE figures that could be achieved these are what I believe the share price should be (if ROE averaged at the levels for the longterm)

45% ROE - $39.57
35% ROE - $28.20
25% ROE - $18.24
15% ROE - $12.36

Now I don't believe a ROE of 35% or above could be sustained over the longterm, but I do think that we will be above that level for at least this financial year, and that it will eventually settle some where between 25% and 35% meaning based on that metric a share price of $23 to $25 is very fair, so there is a great upside potential in my option, and a limited down side if the ROE did drop back to 25% or 20%

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I then also like to make an assessment of what the possible price people (including myself) would be happy to pay or hold at based on the range of possible dividends, and again I then pick which outcome I think is likely.

I think a fully franked dividend of 7% (10% gross) long term is pretty attractive, while alot of people would still be happy with a 5% dividend (7.1% gross).

So here is where the share price would be to achieve those dividend yields based on different dividends.

Current full year dividend ($1.76 full year) -
$25.16 (7%) - $35.20 (5%)

$2 / share (final dividend annualised)
$28.60 (7%) - $40 (5%)

$1 / share
$14.30 (7%). - $20.00 (5%)

$0.76 / share
$10.86 (7%) - $15.20 (5%)

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So based on the above metrics (and some others) my opinion of different price points is as follows.

$19.00 (pretty safe to hold at, should see very good dividend return)
$25.16 (probable result, and should produce a decent dividend retune)
$28.60 (possible outcome, may look to reduce holding, still a good dividend though so no rush to sell)
$33.00+ (blue sky valuation, requires $120+ Iron ore price for long time, definitely be reducing my holding back to maybe 10% of my current position).

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FMG broke through $20 yesterday and hit an all time high, and it holding on to those gains today down 7 cents as I write this.

Iron ore price is well above where it was when I wrote the above analysis, So FMG is still firing on all cylinders, now as long as we can keep out of any Political trade wars, we should be able to continue printing money.

Very happy to hold at this stage.
 
now as long as we can keep out of any Political trade wars

You are pushing the boat out on this one.

We are in a political trade war like it or not, not of our choosing but definitely real.

I have a bad feeling that China will use our one and only trump card to beat us up again.

Brazil iron ore mines will boom and ours will plummet once Brazil gets started again.
 
You are pushing the boat out on this one.

We are in a political trade war like it or not, not of our choosing but definitely real.

I have a bad feeling that China will use our one and only trump card to beat us up again.

Brazil iron ore mines will boom and ours will plummet once Brazil gets started again.
I actually don’t think they can afford to threaten their iron ore supply, they are in the manufacturing business, they need raw materials, they can stop importing luxury goods etc for a while, but not Iron Ore, the price is already through the roof,
 
It seems the kick off for the repricing of Australian Iron ore shares was the latest down grade of Brazil ore exports.

China does have a potentially huge African mine they want to develop but from all accounts that is a 5-10 year project. I also think that Twiggy is going to diversify into renewable energy in the next few years to have some insurance against China reviewing its need for Australian iron ore.:2twocents

Anyway lets not look at a very attractive gift horse in the mouth !! If these prices and volumes continue the there will be substaintial re calibration of the next profit/dividend figures

 
You are pushing the boat out on this one.

We are in a political trade war like it or not, not of our choosing but definitely real.

I have a bad feeling that China will use our one and only trump card to beat us up again.

Brazil iron ore mines will boom and ours will plummet once Brazil gets started again.
Without the political overture for effect, I would be very surprised if China hasnt enough stockpiled iron ore, to squeeze our bollocks really hard.
There is a reason Twiggy is diversifying IMO and it isnt because he feels more exposure to iron ore is a winner ATM.
With our dependence on China buying our resources, to fund our welfare, it doesnt take a genius to work out how fragile that link is.:eek:
 
Without the political overture for effect, I would be very surprised if China hasnt enough stockpiled iron ore, to squeeze our bollocks really hard.
There is a reason Twiggy is diversifying IMO and it isnt because he feels more exposure to iron ore is a winner ATM.
With our dependence on China buying our resources, to fund our welfare, it doesnt take a genius to work out how fragile that link is.:eek:

Unfortunately china is a few moves ahead, its always preplanned with them so logic would dictate they have io covered
 
Good story on the ABC about the iron ore industry in WA which largely services China. Essentially Australia and China equally dependent on the production/purchase of the ore at the moment. Doesn't mean however we shouldn't be looking for alternative markets.

China is not currently stockpiling ore either.

 
Without the political overture for effect, I would be very surprised if China hasnt enough stockpiled iron ore, to squeeze our bollocks really hard.

I am not sure that is correct.

Robert Rennie was on the BIP show recently discussing this in extreme detail

 
I am not sure that is correct.

Robert Rennie was on the BIP show recently discussing this in extreme detail

Interesting podcast InvestoBoy, they make reference to the stockpiling at 24 min mark, hopefully they are correct and China keeps pumping out the steel at the record levels.
Another article, on the same issue.
 
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