FMG - Fortescue Ltd

[notting]

Plenty of notes floating around today on how FMG is barely breaking even at current Iron Ore spot price... it could have easily capitulate today. May be Twiggy was buying again.
Interesting times.

I also heard this industry insider talking a few weeks ago about how him and his team where almost certain it was going to be taken out within 7 months! He was some dude on TV can't remember his name. Just interesting as to why he seemed so certain. Didn't come accross as spruiking but yeah.

 

[ROE]

Out of interest where do you source your current iron ore and other base commodity prices from ROE? Is there free and up-to-date source? Most seem to want to charge you an arm and a leg..

I got my source from freebies sites but I do a fair bit of reading on stock and business articles everyday and I have AFR subscriptions so articles I read cross link and reference to update price so I have a fair idea of where things are.

I'm not into mining or hold any iron ore stock so I have little interest in it apart from reading what is
publishing at the time..

Sorry cant help where you can access that stuff for free

 

[ROE]

This is where FMG CEO think Iron Ore price at

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-06-...-mining-tax-revenue/4049302?section=business#

 

[doctorj]

Andrew Forest bought $18.5m worth of shares on market yesterday apparently so putting his money where his mouth is and trying to support the FMG share price by the looks

Twiggy has always been a gambler, so I wouldn't read too much into it. He might as well buy up because the rest of his fortune is tied to FMY anyway... The reality is that FMG is a much more marginal producer than the big boys - both in terms of their break even price and the timing of their capex and so they will continue to be vulnerable to weaker commodity prices.

 

[seanious]

Announcement was made this morning they are slowing their expansion projects.

Friend on Facebook and his co-workers (no idea how many or on what mine) who just joined FMG has been told they will find out at the end of the day if they will still have a job.

 

[prawn_86]

Getting absolutely nailed today. Down 15% at the moment, 10% of that fall coming in last ten or so minutes. All on rumours they are requesting a suspension of their debt covenants for 12 months

 

[skc]

Getting absolutely nailed today. Down 15% at the moment, 10% of that fall coming in last ten or so minutes. All on rumours they are requesting a suspension of their debt covenants for 12 months

Come on, they can't not halt this ****. It really is't that hard for ASX to issue a please explain!

Put in reg_halt for anything >7% move on ASX 100.

 

[notting]

Will be interesting to whatch how it closes and trades tomorow, when everyone knows about it.
3.00 has been pretty critical.

 

[prawn_86]

Come on, they can't not halt this ****. It really is't that hard for ASX to issue a please explain!

Put in reg_halt for anything >7% move on ASX 100.

haha i bet those who are short would disagree with you :

 

[Klogg]

I'm guessing this was the catalyst...
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2012/09/afr-fortescue-seeking-debt-relief/

 

[McLovin]

Boom!

And so it begins...

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8383&page=16&p=727506#post727506

Only took a week.

Whatever happened to Anaconda Nickel?

 

[notting]

Twiggy will not be able to afford a capital raising to avoid dilution, if they have to go to market to avoid covenents.
He was quite vocal a few years back in praising the Chinese.
He will now find out how nice they really are as he seeks a white knight rescue of his fortune.

 

[Klogg]

Boom!

And so it begins...

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8383&page=16&p=727506#post727506

Only took a week.

Whatever happened to Anaconda Nickel?

Haha, becoming a bit of a prophet, McLovin

 

[blue0810]

haha i bet those who are short would disagree with you :

James Chanos

http://www.moneymorning.com.au/2012...ock-will-slump-when-iron-ore-prices-fall.html

 

[McLovin]

Haha, becoming a bit of a prophet, McLovin

If you've seen the movie then you know the only choices I had for my fake ID were McLovin or Mohammed, so prophet isn't that far off!

To be fair, the overseas press, and several well known hedge funds, have been poking fun at FMG for a while, as well as the supposed "price floor" in iron ore.

This is a good example from the FT...

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/08/24/1131841/danger-trap-door/

 

[notting]

Before Jim Chanos placed his short on FMG, he interviewed Twiggy about his holding.
It went something like this:

 

[sammy84]

Come on, they can't not halt this ****. It really is't that hard for ASX to issue a please explain!

Put in reg_halt for anything >7% move on ASX 100.

Sounds like you were long?

Have to agree though

 

[skc]

Sounds like you were long?

Have to agree though

Lol. No. I am not long.

It's just good market governance. Everyone knows there's a rumour out there. Market is trading uninformed. That's the basis for a halt.

 

[Timestar]

Debt, it will do it to you everytime.

When will Aust Companies get off the debt bandwagon and focus on core business and tempering costs. You don't have to always be the biggest fish in the pond.


Prediction:

Transurban (TCL) is going the same way as FMG. 4.5b in debt and an interest bill big enough to choke a horse.

Will Chanos be shorting this as well?

 

[Klogg]

If you've seen the movie then you know the only choices I had for my fake ID were McLovin or Mohammed, so prophet isn't that far off!

Haha, didn't know if you'd get the reference.

On the topic of FMG - does anyone know how I can find out what the Oz banks' exposure to this is?