FLX - Felix Resources

[haemitite]

which analyst?

will you have a copy of the report?

 

[noirua]

Finished trading at $4.16 up 18 cents and trading of 610,557 shares shows the increasing interest.

Hopefully, more good news on the horizon from Moolarben and Athena on further exploration, and the Hawks Nest/Peculiar Knob sale with royalties looks to be going well with WPG. Phillipson announcement is due by Mar 2007 and hopefully a final sale agreement with royalties will be announced.

Half Year ends on 31st December. Any analysts report will be shown on the Felix website.

 

[noirua]

Felix Resources continue to a 2006 high of $4.25, up 9 cents, this morning. The equivalent 2003 low point was 38 cents, although the stock has a long way to go to achieve the equivalent 2001 high of $13.50 or 1982 high of $65.50.

No rumours of an announcement due, and we can only guess at the reasons for the sudden rise in FLX.

 

[Reefer]

Not always an indication of where a stock is going but the buyers are starting to gather in the $4.20 plus range, while the sellers are getting chewed. Must be a decent report coming out from Wilsons or Xstrata are making a move on Moolarben. Anyone's guess!!

 

[noirua]

There are still a lot of FLX stock holders in the UK, Northern Ireland, Germany and the USA, that goes back to the Auiron Energy days. Some UK Institutions still hold quite a bit of stock and appear to be sitting on it, perhaps why the tightness is so pronounced in FLX trading.

Expectations of a bid run very high in the UK, but anyones guess really. If it comes it will need to be a friendly bid and the last analysts NPV ( Wilson HTM on 24/7/2006) was $5.83 for FLX and this may now be a much higher figure. Why higher, because the report indicated, if the Moolarben Mine was fully financed without selling any interest, it would raise the NPV considerably.

$4.50 is quite an important price in the minds of many, also mentioned by FLX directors in the 2004 report, who saw this coming but not for a while yet.

 

[Reefer]

Interesting spread between buyer and seller with little stock available, but they are going very strongly ATM. I suspect the latest Wilson analysis is available in-house to their clients and they are getting set accordingly. Think there is somewhat of a delay before the report appears on the Felix site. The only holding I have that is going well today!!!

 

[x2rider]

I know this must be closely held but where have all the sellers gone ?

 

[noirua]

I know this must be closely held but where have all the sellers gone ?

Some holders in the UK and particularly the USA have more difficulty selling these days. Still, a price of $4.38, close to the days high of $4.40 is a good performance - 412,499 shares traded in the day and 189 million in issue, is no big deal. What now?

 

[noirua]

There seems to be a buyer in the market for FLX stock and it will be interesting to see if they have a limit, so far it is uncertain. Started trading at $4.30, down 8 cents, but recovered to $4.36.

 

[Reefer]

I still reckon this is a very tightly held stock - good when they are going up and feral when they are going down. I've been in since the Meekatharra days and although as Auiron they had a large share issue just before Whyalla went pear shaped, they shortly thereafter did a 1 for 10 consolidation which effectively removed all the new issue stock in one foul swoop. Since then the only issue of any magnitude was to acquire White Mining ( I think they had the cash for Yarrabee). My point is they are still as tightly held now as they were pre the Auiron issue and in that year Auiron experienced the largest one year gain of all stocks on the ASX (close to 400%). That rapid increase was areflection of limited stock in the market. I think the same thing is happening now - holders with saleable stock are holding because of Moolarben, or perhaps like me they bought in at much higher levels and are holding out to see a gain over time - this may especially be the case with the UK shareholders who have probably all bought in around $9 effective price.

 

[noirua]

Very fair comment Reefer. I think the downward spiral of Auiron was the sale of shares by Ausmelt and hefty dumping by the UK's Equitable Life, who were in trouble. Financing of the original 5-module pig iron smelter was going to cost around A$1.2 billion and the belated 1-module option around A$250 million and as market cap fell it really wasn't on. The SA Gov were due to put A$50 million into the development, as WA did for the Hismelt Smelter, but wavered in the end.
Neill Arthur should really have been supported as Steel prices and Pig Iron prices rose rapidly. Even more than Neill had predicted. By now, all modules would have been up and running for 2 years at a production rate of 2.5mtpa of pig iron.

Anyway, that counts for nothing now.

 

[noirua]

Trading is very wild today, having moved between $4.40 and $4.01 and now at $4.20.

 

[porkpie324]

Yes probably buyers keep pulling their orders, but I managed to pick a few up this morning. porkpie

 

[noirua]

Yes probably buyers keep pulling their orders, but I managed to pick a few up this morning. porkpie

That was a brave purchase. Quite a surprising and worrying wobble.

 

[porkpie324]

You may well be right, thats 2 lots I have picked up this week some today some yesterday, not to many bought though using CFDs so wil have to pay some interest, I do feel FLX is a good sound co so worth the risk. Time will tell after the break if I made the correct decision, nothing ventured nothing gained. porkpie

 

[michael_selway]

The forecast numbers have always been good & increasing with this stock, but can it meet them? Last year they missed it by 50% I think

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2006 2007 2008 2009
EPS 14.6 18.1 25.2 43.2
DPS 4.0 5.2 6.0 12.9

EPS(c) PE Growth
Year Ending 30-06-07 18.1 22.7 23.5%
Year Ending 30-06-08 25.2 16.3 39.2%

Thx

MS

 

[noirua]

The forecast numbers have always been good & increasing with this stock, but can it meet them? Last year they missed it by 50% I think

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2006 2007 2008 2009
EPS 14.6 18.1 25.2 43.2
DPS 4.0 5.2 6.0 12.9

EPS(c) PE Growth
Year Ending 30-06-07 18.1 22.7 23.5%
Year Ending 30-06-08 25.2 16.3 39.2%

Thx

MS

Ahhh, I gather thou are not onboard FLX? Anyway, I can't find any COMPANY forecasts for FLX profits for 2007, that is since Brian Flannery became MD.
I believe your information may be as old as 16 ounces in the Pound, I jest of course, or maybe an analyst in the past is too blame.

This is a high level for Felix, granted, but this price sees the full funding and 100% ownership of Moolarben: Positioned as it is in NSW., in the middle of tenements owned by Peabody and Xstrata, there is some speculation of a bid to purchase Moolarben or FLX themselves.

 

[Reefer]

The "wobbles" of pre Xmas seem to have disappeared. Looking pretty strong in the morning session with light trade pushing them up to $4.35.

 

[Reefer]

Just hunting around the net before I start the day's work and came across an interesting blog from a Canadian investor who has been putting some work into coal stocks. It's 12 months old before Felix took off but he puts a case for fair value of $10 - hope he's on the mark. It's an interesting read and probably still relevant. http://longterm.blogspot.com/2005/12/felix-resources-case-for-coal.html

 

[michael_selway]

Ahhh, I gather thou are not onboard FLX? Anyway, I can't find any COMPANY forecasts for FLX profits for 2007, that is since Brian Flannery became MD.
I believe your information may be as old as 16 ounces in the Pound, I jest of course, or maybe an analyst in the past is too blame.

This is a high level for Felix, granted, but this price sees the full funding and 100% ownership of Moolarben: Positioned as it is in NSW., in the middle of tenements owned by Peabody and Xstrata, there is some speculation of a bid to purchase Moolarben or FLX themselves.

Those forecasts are less than a week old

thx

MS