FLX - Felix Resources

[noirua]

Felix Resources still retain a royalty interest on iron ore production at Hawks Nest and Peculiar Knob Tenements in South Australia, through their 90% owned subsiduary S.A.S.E. The Tenements are owned by Western Plains Resources and their Exec Chairman reports as follows: http://www.brr.com.au/event/WPG/160/18128

 

[noirua]

Major Shareholders in Felix Resources, as at January 2007: Resource Mng & Mining, 15.96%; Gaffwick PTY, 15.87%; Ilwelia PTY, 15.61%; Fibora, 7.71%; Greenworth, 5.14%; Leopold Station, 5.14%; and a main shareholder, Covelane PTY, 2.26%.

This makes the holdings' = 67.69%

 

[porkpie324]

FLX continues to look toppy, support seems to be around 3.90 with plenty of sellors, all the publicity with Newcastle port seems to weighing them down. So with that I closed my last position taking another loss. porkpie

 

[noirua]

FLX continues to look toppy, support seems to be around 3.90 with plenty of sellors, all the publicity with Newcastle port seems to weighing them down. So with that I closed my last position taking another loss. porkpie

There is a big problem at Newcastle Port that even RIO have been defeated by. However, much of Felix's coal, Minerva and Yarrabee, is shipped from Gladsone Port, Queensland, and it is only coal from the Ashton Open-Cut mine that will be shipped out from Newcastle - ...and Ashton Longwall later in 2007. It will be 2008 before Moolarben starts shipping coal and the expansion should be completed around that time - Felix have a partnership/involvement in the expansion; will have to check the details, might be wrong on this.

There is a plus, and that is that coal prices are holding up well, because of congestion at Newcastle Port.

 

[porkpie324]

Thanks for that Noirua, there seems to be some late support coming thru at 4.04-4.06, but still persistant resistance at 4.08-4.15. porkpie

 

[Reefer]

Looking through the director's interest notices, Gaffwick is Duncan, RMM is Rawlins, and Ilwella is Flannery - so those three directors hold at least 47.44% of the company - not sure about the other substantial holders you mention, they may also be associated. So this is why Felix is fairly tightly held and can move significantly either way on relatively small volumes. On past experience it can be a difficult company to get in and out of because the volumes can be small. I feel they have strengthened up considerably in late trading today and I certainly won't be exiting before the half yearlys come out - just need to ride the peaks and troughs and hope we come out the other side OK.

 

[haemitite]

There is a big problem at Newcastle Port that even RIO have been defeated by. However, much of Felix's coal, Minerva and Yarrabee, is shipped from Gladsone Port, Queensland, and it is only coal from the Ashton Open-Cut mine that will be shipped out from Newcastle - ...and Ashton Longwall later in 2007. It will be 2008 before Moolarben starts shipping coal and the expansion should be completed around that time - Felix have a partnership/involvement in the expansion; will have to check the details, might be wrong on this.

There is a plus, and that is that coal prices are holding up well, because of congestion at Newcastle Port.

Its a strange thing as Rio run Newcastle Port with Xstrata as part of Port Warratah Ciak Services

Felix do have a share of the proposed new port.

 

[noirua]

Felix Resources, Half Yearly Report: http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070119/pdf/310kwvysm4rc4x.pdf

Felix closed up 6 cents at $4.14.

Main plus, is that Moolarben resources update increases u/ground coal reserves from 198 mt to 226 mt and open cut from 309 mt to 348 mt, these figures are measured and indicated.

Felix still await a go ahead for Moolarben, which is 100% owned, from the NSW State Government.

There is a delay for bringing on the Minerva mine to full production of 2.5 mtpa.

Demurrage costs at the Newcastle port continue to be a negative factor.

The Ashton Longwall Mine development continues on schedule.

The Harry Brandt mine, ultra clean coal, is looking good with strong Chinese interest.

Felix Resources are very confident about an increase in thermal coal prices, in the next round of contracted coal increases, and 2008 profits should see a significant increase. This is due to old lower contract pricing coming to an end.

There was no mention of the Northern Ireland, Ballymoney, Lignite Reserves; A.D.C., 21.5% interest with Ausmelt; Phillipson coal reserves sale or otherwise to Flinders; and Gold Royalties.

 

[noirua]

At $4.14, Felix Resources are capitalised at about $780 million. In the last analysts review in July 2006, they valued Moolarben at just under $800 million; Reserves have since been increased by 12% on open-cut and 14% on underground, measured and indicated figures, and this would now equate to about $900 million.
Other holdings have changed a bit, with the sale of 49% of Yarrabee and a further 4% of Minerva and Athena. These sales will help, fully finance the Moolarben Project.
The estimated asset value of Felix Resources may now be in the region of $1.4 Billion Dollars.

 

[michael_selway]

At $4.14, Felix Resources are capitalised at about $780 million. In the last analysts review in July 2006, they valued Moolarben at just under $800 million; Reserves have since been increased by 12% on open-cut and 14% on underground, measured and indicated figures, and this would now equate to about $900 million.
Other holdings have changed a bit, with the sale of 49% of Yarrabee and a further 4% of Minerva and Athena. These sales will help, fully finance the Moolarben Project.
The estimated asset value of Felix Resources may now be in the region of $1.4 Billion Dollars.

hi what do u think of CEY?

thx

MS

 

[Reefer]

The Melbourne brokers who post recommendations in the Sunday Sun have posted 3 or 4 strong sells over the last few months since CEY announced the sell off of some of their non performing mines. They are also worried about debt levels. Having said that I am still holding because I reckon the crash in share price was overdone, given that their longwall problems had been factored into the price many months prior to the asset sell off announcement. Can only be a good thing to sell the mines that are dragging the group result down. Think the downside at current $2.80 must be non existent, the problem will be how long we have to hold to see the price improve significantly.

 

[Reefer]

Will be interested to see what the half yearlys show on February 27th when they are released. Wison HTM in their last report estimated Dec06 half year sales at $144.3mill and they came in at $124 mill (both sets of figures account for the reduced equity in Minerva). Sounds like demurrage will still be a "significant" expense so who knows waht the net profit may be. Should be at least $20mill but hopefully more towards $30m if the increase in sales flows thru to the bottom line at greater margins.

 

[michael_selway]

The Melbourne brokers who post recommendations in the Sunday Sun have posted 3 or 4 strong sells over the last few months since CEY announced the sell off of some of their non performing mines. They are also worried about debt levels. Having said that I am still holding because I reckon the crash in share price was overdone, given that their longwall problems had been factored into the price many months prior to the asset sell off announcement. Can only be a good thing to sell the mines that are dragging the group result down. Think the downside at current $2.80 must be non existent, the problem will be how long we have to hold to see the price improve significantly.

do you reckon its a good buy at current prices?

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2006 2007 2008 2009
EPS 17.5 16.8 25.4 34.6
DPS 13.0 13.0 12.0 13.0

thx

MS

 

[noirua]

Felix Resources (FLX) are moving on again today, up 11 cents at $4.25, following release of the Half Yearly Results.

The bullish tone by Mr Brian Flannery, MD, in the BRR broadcast, seems to be causing a pick up in trading. Interesting to see if the $4.40 high can be broken: http://www.brr.com.au/event/FLX/889/18281

 

[noirua]

Felix have now equalled their high of $4.40 in double quick time today.

There are rumours around of a possible bid coming for Felix Resources. There is no concrete evidence of this at the moment, as trading remains quite normal, albeit well above the light trading of the last 3 months.

 

[noirua]

Felix continue on their upward march today, having risen 10 cents to a high of $4.48 - 190% up on their 12 month low. This follows the Half Yearly results and speculation over Moolarben.

 

[Reefer]

Up 19c now Noirua - perhaps someone read your previous post on the asset value increase being up to 1.4 billion. Think you've started a "break-out"!!!

 

[noirua]

Up 19c now Noirua - perhaps someone read your previous post on the asset value increase being up to 1.4 billion. Think you've started a "break-out"!!!

Maybe reefer, but I doubt it. Trading at $4.58 now.

Rumours on other boards of a bid close to $6.00, absolutely nothing to back it up at all though.

Bid - Ask has suddenly gone $4.61 - $4.72, could be an error though.

 

[noirua]

Something went wrong there as Felix suddenly reversed to $4.39, up one cent. Picking up again now at $4.45.

 

[noirua]

Felix closed at $4.50 after dipping early on.

All the charts of FLX make interesting reading, from 1 month to 2 years. Before that, the charts are of little interest and the ASX 6 monthly chart is probably the one to watch for FLX: http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/...de=FLX&TimeFrame=D6&compare=index&indices=XJO

Felix awaits the go ahead at Moolarben. The Newcastle Dock muddle is unlikely to be of much concern to FLX and weakening in the Aussie Dollar of late should improve profitability, if it stays that way.