FLX - Felix Resources
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And onwards it continues. I don't know whether the current price is still in expectation of a takeover, or simply in reaction to an improved economic outlook. Either way, I'm not minding itVolume still seems to pretty consistent.
Fourth quarter report is out tomorrow (Wednesday) and it will be possible to work out how things are going on the sales front. Minerva mine is known to be going well on sales; Ashton will have raised sales due to mine expansion and the move to underground mining, but will the cut backs at the Newcastle Port and renewed demurrage problems have hurt much; Yarrabee mine has lost home sales to the RIO Hismelt WA smelter that has closed, and Japanese and Korean clients have been reluctant to take coal at agreed prices in the third quarter, forcing Felix to sell on the spot market.
HOWEVER, it is not the producing mines anyone is really over bothered about, it's the Moolarben Project near Mudgee in the Hunter. In Y/E 2011 it should add 3.2 million tonnes for Felix and in Y/E 2013 a further 7.4 million tonnes rising to 9.6 million tonnes eventually. This further coal should more than treble profits going forward to 2013.
Felix could do with more cash to move the Wilpeena (North Yarrabee), Athena near Minerva, Harry Brandt and Ashton expansion forward quickly. Maybe Yanzhou will take stakes in some mines and solve that problem, only MAYBE however.
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Felix Resources rose 11.1% during the week with the Fourth Quarter Results last Thursday.
"Felix Resources Sees Increased Demand From China and India": http://minerals-and-metals.blogspot.com/2009/07/felix-resources-sees-increased-demand.html
"Felix Resources Sees Increased Demand From China and India": http://minerals-and-metals.blogspot.com/2009/07/felix-resources-sees-increased-demand.html
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Felix have slipped back a dollar this week to $16.90 to a market cap of $3.32 billion. A larger trade around 580,000 shares went through on Thursday, the only large trade made for a very longtime. Difficult to say who bought off market but the seller is well guessed - not one of the major players.
All the major holders from 4.99% upwards are known to be holding together and MD Brian Flannery said last year, that there would be no breaking ranks. That does not mean that those with 0.5% to 3% will not sell indirectly to a player in the market.
In the end though about 70% is owned by Directors and Senior managers of Felix. Are there any likely weaknesses in the Felix Alliance? Yes! In fact AMCI themselves who were last in a few years back with a 19.12% holding at $5.00.
AMCI director and Felix Director, Mr Hans Mende, was not at last years AGM because of other commitments in the States. That points strongly to where his main interests lie, and they have a near 250% profit on their holding now.
Yes indeed, there are cracks in the Felix Resources main director alliance and it could all break apart, and sooner than expected.
Getting closer now to the $25 - $27 possible expectation of the directors and a few may want less than that.
All the major holders from 4.99% upwards are known to be holding together and MD Brian Flannery said last year, that there would be no breaking ranks. That does not mean that those with 0.5% to 3% will not sell indirectly to a player in the market.
In the end though about 70% is owned by Directors and Senior managers of Felix. Are there any likely weaknesses in the Felix Alliance? Yes! In fact AMCI themselves who were last in a few years back with a 19.12% holding at $5.00.
AMCI director and Felix Director, Mr Hans Mende, was not at last years AGM because of other commitments in the States. That points strongly to where his main interests lie, and they have a near 250% profit on their holding now.
Yes indeed, there are cracks in the Felix Resources main director alliance and it could all break apart, and sooner than expected.
Getting closer now to the $25 - $27 possible expectation of the directors and a few may want less than that.
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Felix halted due to a potential change of control transaction.
The potential counter-party has prescribed approval process that are expected to take 3 days to complete.
Interesting that there were no leaks this time in the newspaper. I wonder if the price drop at the end of last week was related to the offer price we'll see.
I also wonder if the huge run up has been a result of something leaking. I don't think so because other coal companies have done well as well.
I guess it's time for unbridled speculation as to price! My analysis has FLX worth in the high 20's. Given the last year, I could believe FLX directors will accept less to all get out together.
The potential counter-party has prescribed approval process that are expected to take 3 days to complete.
Interesting that there were no leaks this time in the newspaper. I wonder if the price drop at the end of last week was related to the offer price we'll see.
I also wonder if the huge run up has been a result of something leaking. I don't think so because other coal companies have done well as well.
I guess it's time for unbridled speculation as to price! My analysis has FLX worth in the high 20's. Given the last year, I could believe FLX directors will accept less to all get out together.
There has always been speculation on a take-over or buy-in, so maybe wolf was cried a few too many times for the media to pick up on it.
I doubt the price would have dropped due to the offer price, unless the offer price was under $17, which doesn't seem very likely at all. Coal demand is one of the steadier resources, global recession or not.
We'll see what offer is presented anyhow, the fact they have held out for so long probably means it will have to be a pretty high one
Till we have no sector!
I doubt the price would have dropped due to the offer price, unless the offer price was under $17, which doesn't seem very likely at all. Coal demand is one of the steadier resources, global recession or not.
We'll see what offer is presented anyhow, the fact they have held out for so long probably means it will have to be a pretty high one
Till we have no sector!
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Agree with sector might be all gone soon, Coal consumption is still bullish.
prob $20 now, was pitched under $20 though
prob $20 now, was pitched under $20 though
skc
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There has always been speculation on a take-over or buy-in, so maybe wolf was cried a few too many times for the media to pick up on it.
I doubt the price would have dropped due to the offer price, unless the offer price was under $17, which doesn't seem very likely at all. Coal demand is one of the steadier resources, global recession or not.
We'll see what offer is presented anyhow, the fact they have held out for so long probably means it will have to be a pretty high one
Till we have no sector!
Can someone explain to me why RIV doesn't rise with CEY / MCC / AQA? It's up a stunning 1.4%...
NHC is another sizable coal stock that hasn't moved up on FLX's news. But it's got funny cross holding arrangements so it doesn't command takeover premium.
Aug. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Yanzhou Coal Mining Co. and Felix Resources Ltd. halted trading of their shares amid speculation that China’s fourth-biggest coal producer plans a takeover bid for its Australian rival.
Felix expects an announcement on a potential change of control, the Brisbane-based company said today in a statement to the Australian stock exchange. Yanzhou Coal may bid A$3.7 billion bid ($3.1 billion), or “just under” A$20 a share, for Felix, the Sydney Morning Herald reported, without saying where it got the information.
“The speculated purchase price is high,” Martin Wang, an analyst with Guotai Junan Securities Ltd., said by phone from Hong Kong. “Yanzhou Coal may have to issue additional shares to raise funds for the acquisition.” Felix has climbed 92 percent this year to A$16.20.
China, the world’s biggest coal and metal user, is buying mines and oil fields to meet rising demand spurred by the government’s 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) economic stimulus plan. Bids for resources by China, whose $1.95 trillion in currency reserves are the world’s largest, have been met with opposition from lawmakers in Australia and relations between the countries have been strained since the arrest of four Rio Tinto Group executives in July.
Felix Shares
Felix, which supplies coal to South Korea and Japan, fell 1.2 percent to A$16.90 on Aug. 7, giving the company a value of about A$3.3 billion. Yanzhou dropped 2.6 percent to HK$12.12 before the suspension. Yanzhou Coal shares have more than doubled in Hong Kong trading this year, compared with a 42 percent gain in the benchmark Hang Seng Index.
Talks with Yanzhou Coal have been underway since last year, two people with knowledge of the matter said in March. “Yanzhou was the name that was speculated on earlier this year,” said Andrew Harrington, a mining analyst at Patersons securities Ltd. in Sydney. “Reading between the lines it looks like some kind of deal has been struck.”
Australia is the world’s biggest shipper of coal and iron ore and China bought 44 percent of the country’s mineral exports last year. Yanzhou Coal will continue to pursue plans to boost coal reserves, President Yang Deyu said in an interview in October.
Felix, which owns the Yarrabee, Minerva and Ashton mines in Australia and a stake in a coal port, produces soft coking coal, an ingredient in steelmaking, and thermal coal, used by power stations, in New South Wales and Queensland. The company is also building the Moolarben coal mine in New South Wales.
Offer Price
Yanzhou Coal may be willing to offer only A$10 to A$12 per share, valuing Felix at up to A$ 2.35 billion, one of the people said in March. Felix may want at least A$15 per share, the other person said then.
The coal price at Australia’s Newcastle port, the world’s largest export harbor for the fuel, rose to $76.80 a ton by the week of July 31, recovering from this year’s low of $60.20.
China’s state-owned companies seeking mining and energy acquisitions in Australia are opting for smaller stakes because of opposition to Chinese control of resources, James Philips, a Hong Kong-based mergers and acquisition lawyer at Minter Ellison said June 4.
Australian opposition prompted Rio Tinto Group to abandon a $19.5 billion deal with Aluminum Corp. of China in June and China Minmetals Group to scale down its offer for OZ Minerals Ltd. in March. Last month four Rio Tinto Group employees, including Australian citizen Stern Hu, were detained in China for allegedly stealing state secrets. Prime Minister Kevin Rudd’s government has called on China to deal with the case expeditiously.
Some 57 percent of Australians said Chinese mining investments should be resisted because the nation’s interests would be “better served” with local ownership, according to a poll of 890 people conducted by Essential Research in April.
Felix Managing Director Brian Flannery couldn’t immediately comment when contacted by phone earlier today. The potential counterparty has approval processes that are expected to take more than three days to complete, Felix said in the statement.
Yang didn’t answer calls made to his office today. Zhang Baocai, the company’s board secretary, also didn’t pick up calls made to his mobile phone and office.
To contact the reporter on this story: Ben Sharples in Melbourne at bsharples@bloomberg.netWinnie Zhu in Shanghai at wzhu4@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: August 10, 2009 00:53 EDT
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Felix expects an announcement on a potential change of control, the Brisbane-based company said today in a statement to the Australian stock exchange. Yanzhou Coal may bid A$3.7 billion bid ($3.1 billion), or “just under” A$20 a share, for Felix, the Sydney Morning Herald reported, without saying where it got the information.
“The speculated purchase price is high,” Martin Wang, an analyst with Guotai Junan Securities Ltd., said by phone from Hong Kong. “Yanzhou Coal may have to issue additional shares to raise funds for the acquisition.” Felix has climbed 92 percent this year to A$16.20.
China, the world’s biggest coal and metal user, is buying mines and oil fields to meet rising demand spurred by the government’s 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) economic stimulus plan. Bids for resources by China, whose $1.95 trillion in currency reserves are the world’s largest, have been met with opposition from lawmakers in Australia and relations between the countries have been strained since the arrest of four Rio Tinto Group executives in July.
Felix Shares
Felix, which supplies coal to South Korea and Japan, fell 1.2 percent to A$16.90 on Aug. 7, giving the company a value of about A$3.3 billion. Yanzhou dropped 2.6 percent to HK$12.12 before the suspension. Yanzhou Coal shares have more than doubled in Hong Kong trading this year, compared with a 42 percent gain in the benchmark Hang Seng Index.
Talks with Yanzhou Coal have been underway since last year, two people with knowledge of the matter said in March. “Yanzhou was the name that was speculated on earlier this year,” said Andrew Harrington, a mining analyst at Patersons securities Ltd. in Sydney. “Reading between the lines it looks like some kind of deal has been struck.”
Australia is the world’s biggest shipper of coal and iron ore and China bought 44 percent of the country’s mineral exports last year. Yanzhou Coal will continue to pursue plans to boost coal reserves, President Yang Deyu said in an interview in October.
Felix, which owns the Yarrabee, Minerva and Ashton mines in Australia and a stake in a coal port, produces soft coking coal, an ingredient in steelmaking, and thermal coal, used by power stations, in New South Wales and Queensland. The company is also building the Moolarben coal mine in New South Wales.
Offer Price
Yanzhou Coal may be willing to offer only A$10 to A$12 per share, valuing Felix at up to A$ 2.35 billion, one of the people said in March. Felix may want at least A$15 per share, the other person said then.
The coal price at Australia’s Newcastle port, the world’s largest export harbor for the fuel, rose to $76.80 a ton by the week of July 31, recovering from this year’s low of $60.20.
China’s state-owned companies seeking mining and energy acquisitions in Australia are opting for smaller stakes because of opposition to Chinese control of resources, James Philips, a Hong Kong-based mergers and acquisition lawyer at Minter Ellison said June 4.
Australian opposition prompted Rio Tinto Group to abandon a $19.5 billion deal with Aluminum Corp. of China in June and China Minmetals Group to scale down its offer for OZ Minerals Ltd. in March. Last month four Rio Tinto Group employees, including Australian citizen Stern Hu, were detained in China for allegedly stealing state secrets. Prime Minister Kevin Rudd’s government has called on China to deal with the case expeditiously.
Some 57 percent of Australians said Chinese mining investments should be resisted because the nation’s interests would be “better served” with local ownership, according to a poll of 890 people conducted by Essential Research in April.
Felix Managing Director Brian Flannery couldn’t immediately comment when contacted by phone earlier today. The potential counterparty has approval processes that are expected to take more than three days to complete, Felix said in the statement.
Yang didn’t answer calls made to his office today. Zhang Baocai, the company’s board secretary, also didn’t pick up calls made to his mobile phone and office.
To contact the reporter on this story: Ben Sharples in Melbourne at bsharples@bloomberg.netWinnie Zhu in Shanghai at wzhu4@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: August 10, 2009 00:53 EDT
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REUTERS.
Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited Makes Takeover Bid For Felix Resources Limited-DJ
Sunday, 9 Aug 2009 10:37pm EDT
Dow Jones reported that Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited has struck an agreement with Felix Resources Limited over a takeover of the Australian miner. There have been media reports that Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited could be offering as much as AUD25 a share for Felix Resources Limited but the person said the offer is pitched below AUD20 a share. Shares in both Felix and Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited were placed on trading halts Monday with Felix Resources Limited flagging an upcoming announcement on a potential change of control transaction. Felix Resources Limited first advised the market it was in talks over a possible takeover in July last year and a previous round of discussions with Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited had stalled earlier this year.
Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited Makes Takeover Bid For Felix Resources Limited-DJ
Sunday, 9 Aug 2009 10:37pm EDT
Dow Jones reported that Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited has struck an agreement with Felix Resources Limited over a takeover of the Australian miner. There have been media reports that Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited could be offering as much as AUD25 a share for Felix Resources Limited but the person said the offer is pitched below AUD20 a share. Shares in both Felix and Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited were placed on trading halts Monday with Felix Resources Limited flagging an upcoming announcement on a potential change of control transaction. Felix Resources Limited first advised the market it was in talks over a possible takeover in July last year and a previous round of discussions with Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited had stalled earlier this year.
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In the last main announcement to the ASX, Felix Resources did say that other parties were still in talks with Felix Resources. Felix did not name any companies but speculation supposed the following to be among them: BHP Billiton, Peabody, Rio Tinto, Yanzhou Coal, Xstrata, Vale and Anglo Coal.
General news shows Felix coal production will treble during the next 4 years and fourfold by 2016.
Any bid by Yanzhou Coal should be seen as a starting point for bidding and others should come in during the coming months. Closest to $30 should finally take the prize or a fair bit less with Aussie company stock being part of the bid, imho.
General news shows Felix coal production will treble during the next 4 years and fourfold by 2016.
Any bid by Yanzhou Coal should be seen as a starting point for bidding and others should come in during the coming months. Closest to $30 should finally take the prize or a fair bit less with Aussie company stock being part of the bid, imho.
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Interesting. I suspect the announcement will turn out to be binding on FLX and pre-agreed with little or no scope for counter offers. I expect Yanzhou have learned from the RIO debacle and have bid in such a way as to NOT kick off an auction. I guess we'll see in a few days.
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Hi zaz, Thinking back on the Centennial bid, the Board of Directors had an agreement to support a bid and had to carry on supporting it, despite the bid they supported being inferior.
In this situation, any voting at a Special General Meeting may preclude the directors from voting their shares. This is provided it has the agreement of, or a ruling by, the Takeovers Panel.
It is about 6 years since I read through the Takeovers Panels' rules and regulations, and it's probably worth trawling through them again.
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It looks as if Felix directors Mr Duncan Travers, Mr Hans Mende and Mr Brian Flannery are poised to accept the bid from Yanzhou Coal. A counter bid Tuesday, Wednesday or Thursday is needed from a serious company.
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Many of the Felix Directors (independent excluded) have interests indirectly in Felix Resources by their joint ownership of companies like Coalroc Contractors Ltd., that carry out mining operations. MD, Mr Brian Flannery owns access land to mines for lease fees.
Basically, even if these directors, a former CFO and two managers sell their complete share holdings in Felix, their other involvements continue.
Agreements reached either for continued involvement with a Yanzhou owned Felix Resources or for loss of position as Director or Manager are likely to be substantial. However, they are considerably rich people and sums are unlikely to be substantial on that basis.
Basically, even if these directors, a former CFO and two managers sell their complete share holdings in Felix, their other involvements continue.
Agreements reached either for continued involvement with a Yanzhou owned Felix Resources or for loss of position as Director or Manager are likely to be substantial. However, they are considerably rich people and sums are unlikely to be substantial on that basis.
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Credit Suisse sees Xstrata bidding for Felix Resources due to its next door Ulan mine.
Bloomberg sees Vale and Shenua lining up to counter bid.
Credit Suisse raises price target to $24 a share.
Article on the bid situation from the FT: http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/200...ay-another-chinese-resources-deal-down-under/
Bloomberg sees Vale and Shenua lining up to counter bid.
Credit Suisse raises price target to $24 a share.
Article on the bid situation from the FT: http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/200...ay-another-chinese-resources-deal-down-under/
michael_selway
Coal & Phosphate, thats it!
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yep nice
Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2008 2009 2010 2011
EPS 51.8 134.8 57.8 109.8
DPS 53.0 34.3 21.7 39.6
thx
MS
