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FLX - Felix Resources

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Hm WPG, isnt bad at all

Western Plains Resources (WPG) is an Australian mineral resources company with projects in South Australia and New South Wales.

 
michael_selway said:
Hm WPG, isnt bad at all

Western Plains Resources (WPG) is an Australian mineral resources company with projects in South Australia and New South Wales.
Click to expand...

Speculation says that WPG may find about 15 pods of high grade iron ore and this MAY produce 300 million tonnes. The rest is about 770 million tonnes of low grade iron ore.

Difficult to know what Felix directors think of this holding, as they are all thermal, PCI and semi-soft coal miners in Queensland and NSW. They might want to take a quick $6 million from the shares and maybe a good price for the royalties, I don't know.
 
S.A.S.E.(owned 90% by Felix) were paid $750,000 for Peculiar Knob RL103 and received shares in Southern Iron (SI) that were reported worth $450,000 at the time. ( SI are now 100% owned by Western Plains Resources (WPG).

S.A.S.E. made an agreement on the sale of Hawks Nest to SI to receive $350,000 on the granting of a mining lease and to receive $1 per tonne for all sales of production from Hawks Nest.

The information, at the time, is at (slow download on some computers):http://www.westernplainsresources.c...ASX Notice of Meeting 21st September 2006.pdf
( Go to page 12 onwards of the HLB Mann Judd report)

Felix trade up 25 cents at $8.45 early this afternoon.
 
Noirua
Any chance that it's Xstrata accumulating slowly, or is that not their style. I would imagine they could fund takeover of Felix with their petty cash, and if the price is right, it's doubtful the majority shareholders would stand in the way.
 
Reefer said:
Noirua
Any chance that it's Xstrata accumulating slowly, or is that not their style. I would imagine they could fund takeover of Felix with their petty cash, and if the price is right, it's doubtful the majority shareholders would stand in the way.
Click to expand...


Reefer, It is probably unlikely, though any buying would be through an Australian subsiduary, probably not Ulan Mining as they are owned 10% by Mitsubishi and in a legal tussle over Moolarben. Xstrata failed in their bid for Gloucester Coal as the companies shares became more tightly held and they failed on taking over LionOre. So I guess they've learn't by these two failures and wont make a bid for Felix Resources as they might have to pay around $12 per share (only my figure and from no other source, and not a recommendation to buy shares) to the angry major holders because of this legal tussle over Moolarben.
 
michael_selway said:
Hi thanks, but link doesnt work
MS
Click to expand...


Hi m_s, the link does work, I've just tried it - noi


Anyway, it continues to look very good for Felix Resources with forecasts for up to US$100 per tonne for benchmark thermal.

Felix trade at $8.50 at time of posting and are within 20 cents of the previous 5 year closing high and that's despite the worries over the Moolarben appeal.
 

Hi thanks yep it works now

I still think FLX will get takeover eventually

UBS last month boosted its estimates for annual contract prices for thermal coal for the Japanese fiscal year starting April 1. Contracts may be settled at $90 a ton next year, rising to $105 in 2009, up from previous forecasts of $70 and $75, it said. National Australia Bank Ltd., Goldman Sachs JBWere Pty and Credit Suisse Group have all raised their forecasts for 2008 contract prices within the past month.

thx

MS
 


The one big plus that the Aussie export coal miners are looking for is to set the prices for benchmark thermal for 2008 at US$90 per tonne and then the $Aussie to sink back to A$1.35 to the greenback.
Felix are aiming for after tax profits of around A$100 million for Y/E 2008 which should be achievable at the present exchange rate of around A$1.13 to US$. The Half Yearly result to 31st December 2007 should show that is being achieved.
 
Always a good discussion with miners is "what is the real profit". Felix showed $47.2 million after tax profit in 2007, after $93 million in exploration and development expenditure and before the cost of the $11.8 million dividend: Also included was the $13.3 million tax return, $18 million of the profit on selling 10% of Moolarben and about $28 million profit on sales of 19% of Minerva.

In 2008, sales attributable to Felix will be around 5 million to 5.2 million tonnes, higher than Austock suggested in September, if the first quarter results continue through 2008. Felix expect coal price agreements US$15 above last years from 1st April 2008. Further sales of coal at spot prices can be expected after the 150,000 tonne sale of thermal from Ashton at US$85 per tonne (A$100 per tonne). Minerva pricing was agreed from 1st Jan 2008.
$70 million ($63 million profit) is still to come from the 10% sale of Moolarben.
 

Looks pretty good

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 7.8 22.5 35.8 54.5
DPS 6.0 4.8 15.9 12.7

thx

MS
 
michael_selway said:
Looks pretty good
Click to expand...

Hi m_s. Looks pretty good and suddenly the market drops like a stone. FLX now about $7.00 against an $8.70 high only a few weeks ago.

Western Plains Resources (WPG) are in trading halt. Maybe a small amount of cheer for Felix if it's a takeover bid, probably not, as my guessing is universally terrible in these matters.
 

Well its only taking a breather!

I mean it went from 5-8 dollars in 3 months, have to further down the track for these great COAL companies

thx

MS
 
Felix seem determined to recover from that buffeting that sent them down nearly 2 dollars. Trading quietly as always but heading back towards $8.00. The half yearly result should be very good for FLX and should be out in about 4 weeks.
 
Did you buy back in Noirua? You mentioned you sold 20% of your holding the firdt time it went up over $8. I'm not game to sell any more of mine. I've reduced by 50% over the last year, but the rest I'm running with.
 
Reefer said:
Did you buy back in Noirua? You mentioned you sold 20% of your holding the firdt time it went up over $8. I'm not game to sell any more of mine. I've reduced by 50% over the last year, but the rest I'm running with.
Click to expand...

I bought some stock on the decline in the first half of 2007 and sold not long ago. This is a high risk stock and is tightly held and that is the reason Felix are not in the ASX200 index.

Felix share of coal sold is set to rise from 3.7 million tonnes to 4.8 to 5.4 million tonnes in Y/E 2008. The 4.8 to 5.4 figure is wide as Felix are trying to sell coal into the spot maket. 150,000 tonnes from Ashton sold in August at US$85 per tonne, so far, for February/ March delivery.
 
The 70% purchase of the Foxleigh coal mine by Anglo', announced this Friday, for A$721 million (US620 million)- to be adjusted for debt, coal stocks and typical balance sheet liabilities: Should put a fresh spark under the larger coal prospects in Queensland and NSW. Foxleigh produces 2.5mtpa of PCI coal for the steel industry with prospects up to 3.3mtpa.
 
Happy times for Felix Resources shareholders, up 80% on the year, and all this despite the worries and concerns during it. The year ahead looks to be a similar one for Felix with good news and the worries continuing into 2008.

I've held Felix stock for only a few months short of 25 years and I know there are many around who have done the same.

Good luck, well, to us all my friends as the journey continues :walker:
 
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