FLX - Felix Resources

[michael_selway]

Hit $6.20 today which is the lowest the stock has been since middle of October. Perhaps the half yearlys have been badly affected by demurrage, is Moolarben court case going against us - we are suffering a much greater correction than all the otehr coal stocks, most of which are rising. Very disappointed with the performance over the last few weeks.

Well it is quite pricy though, bu tlong term its great energy stock

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 7.8 22.0 35.8 54.5
DPS 6.0 3.9 19.0 12.7

thx

MS

 

[noirua]

Hit $6.20 today which is the lowest the stock has been since middle of October. Perhaps the half yearlys have been badly affected by demurrage, is Moolarben court case going against us - we are suffering a much greater correction than all the otehr coal stocks, most of which are rising. Very disappointed with the performance over the last few weeks.

Hi Reefer, m_s et al, I decided to add some FLX stock today as the price suddenly sank below $5.60.

There has been no announcement about the court cases and Moolarben, and the agreement with the Korean consortium sees A$90 million in the bank, A$20 million immediately, and the rest at certain milestones.
The total cost of developing all of the mines at Moolarben is A$350 million up until mid-2010. The sale of 20% gives Felix A$180 million plus Sojitz and Korean consortium pay an additional A$70 million between them for development costs.

The second quarterly report is due out about now and the half yearly report at the end of February.

I have checked shipping out of the Gladstone Port and sales of coal have been going very well for Minerva and Yarrabee.
More difficult to work out which ships are carrying Ashton coals out of Newcastle: Though delays (demurrage) has fallen to around 15 days with 29 ships at anchor, well down on the 70+ earlier in 2007.

 

[Reefer]

I tried to buy back in at $5.67 today but mustn't have hit the submit button properly and by the time I established I wasn't about to double up, the bird had flown on it's way to $5.90. But I see at the close they were much softer so may be able to get in in low $5.70's which is good buying. Even if Moolarben goes against us there is a lot of value in the rest of the compnay, and these have definitely been oversold.

 

[noirua]

I tried to buy back in at $5.67 today but mustn't have hit the submit button properly and by the time I established I wasn't about to double up, the bird had flown on it's way to $5.90. But I see at the close they were much softer so may be able to get in in low $5.70's which is good buying. Even if Moolarben goes against us there is a lot of value in the rest of the compnay, and these have definitely been oversold.

Hi Reefer, You may well get your opportunity to get in lower as the London FTSE 100 index is down about 3.4% on Monday - a 2-year low. All stocks are being hit no matter what their credentials.
Big opportunities for those who keep their nerve. Well done anyway in unloading FLX when you did.
Finished at $5.71, down 35 cents, after trading during the day at $5.51 to $5.96. Shares traded at 220,336, very light trading.

 

[noirua]

Hi Reefer, You may well get your opportunity to get in lower as the London FTSE 100 index is down about 3.4% on Monday - a 2-year low. All stocks are being hit no matter what their credentials.
Big opportunities for those who keep their nerve. Well done anyway in unloading FLX when you did.
Finished at $5.71, down 35 cents, after trading during the day at $5.51 to $5.96. Shares traded at 220,336, very light trading.

Felix opened very weak today at $5.07 and seem to strengthen as blocks of shares ranging from 7,000 to 39,000 were taken off the fence by a buyer or buyers who seem or may have come in late, it was difficult to tell as they were too fast for me.: Closed at $5.50 after a high late on at $5.60. Added a few shares early on as I do have confidence in the mining sector, particularly coal, at these levels.
Second Quarterly has not come out yet and they may be leaving it 'till Friday.

 

[noirua]

Information on Felix Resources interests in Ultra Clean Coal and the hopes of implementation of sequestration in the future. GTCC Generators obtain 50% - 55% efficiency from anthracite when compared to conventional power stations from coal at 33% - 35%, in Australia.
(Felix also has an anthracite project at Harry Brandt, near Nemo in Queensland's Bowen Basin: http://www.felixresources.com.au/harrybrandt.html )

http://www.felixresources.com.au/ucc.html

 

[noirua]

ASX Announcement: "New Coal Terminal at Newcastle"
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080123/pdf/3171rb43y8x7rf.pdf

 

[michael_selway]

ASX Announcement: "New Coal Terminal at Newcastle"
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080123/pdf/3171rb43y8x7rf.pdf

Hm not bad, it will boost production

NEW COAL TERMINAL AT NEWCASTLE Felix is pleased to announce the start of construction by Newcastle Coal Infrastructure Group (NCIG) of a new coal loading terminal on the Hunter River at Newcastle. Construction of the first stage of a third coal export terminal for the Port of Newcastle will begin immediately following completion yesterday of finance arrangements and the signing of a 35-year lease for the site from the New South Wales Government....

thx

MS

 

[noirua]

Hm not bad, it will boost production

NEW COAL TERMINAL AT NEWCASTLE Felix is pleased to announce the start of construction by Newcastle Coal Infrastructure Group (NCIG) of a new coal loading terminal on the Hunter River at Newcastle. Construction of the first stage of a third coal export terminal for the Port of Newcastle will begin immediately following completion yesterday of finance arrangements and the signing of a 35-year lease for the site from the New South Wales Government....

thx

MS

Everything is gradually falling into place for Felix's 80% owned Moolarben Project and 15.4% shareholding in NCIG. $250 million dollars has or is due to be paid by the partners in Moolarben and the financial risk falls close to zero.
FLX are recovering from the crash to near $5.00 and trade this Afternoon at around $6.40.

 

[Reefer]

The shares have rebounded quite strongly today. They need to appoint a new CFO more regularly if this is the effect it has. Quarterly's almost upon us.

 

[noirua]

Thermal coal rocketed to US$103 per tonne out of the Newcastle Port on Friday on news China is to suspend coal exports for two months.

 

[noirua]

The shares have rebounded quite strongly today. They need to appoint a new CFO more regularly if this is the effect it has. Quarterly's almost upon us.

Hi reefer et al, with the sudden decision of China to suspend exports and the desperate, pay any price scenario, shortage of benchmark thermal we should see the coal producing sector very strong next week.

If Felix were able to sell 5.2 million tonnes of thermal, PCI and semi-soft at US$100+ per tonne, for a full year. Then profits could jump by UP TO AUS$250 million (exchange rates, US$ versus AUS$ could reduce this estimate), and that excludes Moolarben.
HOWEVER, in reality Felix have agreed prices for 2008 ( from 1st January 2008), from the Minerva Mine - 1.3 million tonnes attributable - at US$68 per tonne (US$73 per tonne benchmark thermal equivalent)

Prices against benchmark (coal varies to benchmark + & - on thermal and higher prices apply on PCI and semi-soft, for Felix Resources) for the Yarrabee and Ashton mines (3.9 million tonnes attributable estimate for Y/E 30/6/2008) have yet to be set and will apply from 1st April 2008.

So, Felix are only set to see increased profits from minerva for half of the year ending 30/6/2008 and for a quarter of the year for Ashton and Yarrabee.

Will thermal coal prices hold above US$100 per tonne, that is the important question for Felix. On the UNLIKELY scenario that they do and Moolarben reaces 10mtpa (8mtpa attributable) at these prices, plus Harry Brandt and Athena. Then profits would reach unbelievable levels.

Unfortunately the price of thermal coal may fall back. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH as they say, and maybe or maybe not, it could be worth the gamble.

 

[michael_selway]

Hi reefer et al, with the sudden decision of China to suspend exports and the desperate, pay any price scenario, shortage of benchmark thermal we should see the coal producing sector very strong next week.

If Felix were able to sell 5.2 million tonnes of thermal, PCI and semi-soft at US$100+ per tonne, for a full year. Then profits could jump by UP TO AUS$250 million (exchange rates, US$ versus AUS$ could reduce this estimate), and that excludes Moolarben.
HOWEVER, in reality Felix have agreed prices for 2008 ( from 1st January 2008), from the Minerva Mine - 1.3 million tonnes attributable - at US$68 per tonne (US$73 per tonne benchmark thermal equivalent)

Prices against benchmark (coal varies to benchmark + & - on thermal and higher prices apply on PCI and semi-soft, for Felix Resources) for the Yarrabee and Ashton mines (3.9 million tonnes attributable estimate for Y/E 30/6/2008) have yet to be set and will apply from 1st April 2008.

So, Felix are only set to see increased profits from minerva for half of the year ending 30/6/2008 and for a quarter of the year for Ashton and Yarrabee.

Will thermal coal prices hold above US$100 per tonne, that is the important question for Felix. On the UNLIKELY scenario that they do and Moolarben reaces 10mtpa (8mtpa attributable) at these prices, plus Harry Brandt and Athena. Then profits would reach unbelievable levels.

Unfortunately the price of thermal coal may fall back. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH as they say, and maybe or maybe not, it could be worth the gamble.

Long term i think coal is the only comomodity to do well, mainly because of increasing electricity usage around the world, hardly any alternatives, unlike oil

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 22.8 22.0 64.4 99.3
DPS 14.0 11.3 30.8 44.5

thx

MS

 

[Real1ty]

``It's difficult to see in the next 18 months to two years who would have the capacity to significantly increase supply,'' Graham Chapman, managing director at Richmond, U.K.- based consultant Energy Edge Ltd., said by telephone today.

In Australia, the world's biggest coal exporter, Macarthur Coal Ltd. and Wesfarmers Ltd. said they wouldn't be able to meet contract supplies from some mines in Queensland state after heavy rain. China ordered domestic coal shippers to halt exports after heavy snow and rail congestion shut supplies to 5 percent of the country's coal-fired generators.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601207&sid=aoJ1ht8xmxIE&refer=energy

It would appear that the outlook is still one of sustained high prices, even with a US slowdown.

 

[Reefer]

Noirua
Looking forward to your expert analysis now the quarterlys are out.

There are some good signs with Minerva out-performing budget, Yarrabee extending it's resource, demurrage down, no flood problems, and coal market strengthening in "demand and price".

I guess the figures are pretty good but I'm unsure how we compare to our peers and competitors. Coal sold is up 23% on the corresponding half year from 2007, but the Ashton Underground has had a huge impact there. The company states that sales from both Yarrabee and Ashton were shunted into the next quarter because of shipping delays, otherwise the figures would have been better again.

Not too sure what to make about it all - released on close of trading so no statement from the market, but my belief is we have a false market in this stock anyway, based ofn the huge number of miniscule trades. A difficult stock to both buy and sell now as available shares keep getting soaked up.

Will wait for your appraisal.

 

[noirua]

Noirua
Looking forward to your expert analysis now the quarterlys are out.

There are some good signs with Minerva out-performing budget, Yarrabee extending it's resource, demurrage down, no flood problems, and coal market strengthening in "demand and price".

I guess the figures are pretty good but I'm unsure how we compare to our peers and competitors. Coal sold is up 23% on the corresponding half year from 2007, but the Ashton Underground has had a huge impact there. The company states that sales from both Yarrabee and Ashton were shunted into the next quarter because of shipping delays, otherwise the figures would have been better again.

Not too sure what to make about it all - released on close of trading so no statement from the market, but my belief is we have a false market in this stock anyway, based ofn the huge number of miniscule trades. A difficult stock to both buy and sell now as available shares keep getting soaked up.

Will wait for your appraisal.

Hi Reefer et al, You seem to have summed it all up as well as anybody.

Felix look as if they will book about $90 million ($81 million profit) from Moolarben in Y/E 2008 against $61 million ($46 million profit) in 2007. Costs set to fall $20 million.
Coal sales from Yarrabee may well come out the same as 2007 (1.6 million tonnes) and Minerva rise from 1.04 million tonnes to about 1.2 million tonnes. Ashton looks to have moved to cutting back at the opencut mine and going full out on the longwall mine and coal sales should rise from 1,110,000 tonnes to around 1.8 million tonnes.

Minerva coal has the advantage of being shipped on its own and not mixed with other coals at the port. There are rail problems for Minerva and Yarrabee and Minerva may not reach the 1.3 million tonne attributable target sales and Yarrabee the 1.8 million tonne target.
Ashton may well produce its target 2.2 - 2.4 million tonnes of coal attributable to Felix, however, sales may be as low as 1.8 million tonnes.

It was hoped Felix would sell 4.8 to 5.2 million tonnes but may possibly fall short at 4.6 million tonnes. That is well up on last years 3.7 million tonnes.

Profits before tax and including asset sales may well reach $140 - $150 million for 2008.

 

[noirua]

Felix continue on with extremely light trading as hardly anyone with reasonable holdings are willing to sell. Close to $8 again at $7.93, up 18 cents.

Half Yearly report due out end of February. Further announcements expected on upgrades of reserves at Minerva and Yarrabee. Xstrata court case over 20% of Moolarben looks set to roll on and on as Felix continue to develop the mine regardless.

 

[michael_selway]

Felix continue on with extremely light trading as hardly anyone with reasonable holdings are willing to sell. Close to $8 again at $7.93, up 18 cents.

Half Yearly report due out end of February. Further announcements expected on upgrades of reserves at Minerva and Yarrabee. Xstrata court case over 20% of Moolarben looks set to roll on and on as Felix continue to develop the mine regardless.

Yep FLX looking good right now

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 7.8 23.5 68.8 87.9
DPS 6.0 3.5 23.6 12.7

thx

MS

 

[noirua]

Hi Reefer et al, You seem to have summed it all up as well as anybody.

Felix look as if they will book about $90 million ($81 million profit) from Moolarben in Y/E 2008 from asset sales, against $61 million ($46 million profit) in 2007. Costs set to fall $20 millionin Y/E 30th June 2008.
Coal sales from Yarrabee may well come out the same as 2007 (1.7 million tonnes) and Minerva rise from 1.04 million tonnes to about 1.2 million tonnes. Ashton looks to have moved to cutting back at the opencut mine and going full out on the longwall mine and coal sales should rise from 1,110,000 tonnes to around 1.8 million tonnes.

Minerva coal has the advantage of being shipped on its own and not mixed with other coals at the port. There are rail problems for Minerva and Yarrabee and Minerva may not reach the 1.3 million tonne attributable target sales and Yarrabee the 1.8 million tonne target.
Ashton may well produce its target 2.2 - 2.4 million tonnes of coal attributable to Felix, however, sales may be as low as 1.8 million tonnes.

It was hoped Felix would sell 4.8 to 5.2 million tonnes but may possibly fall short at 4.7 million tonnes. That is well up on last years 3.7 million tonnes.

Profits before tax and including asset sales may well reach $140 - $150 million for 2008.

Following on from the above:
The profit guess for Y/E 30th June 2008, $140 - $150 million, are worked out on the basis of coal prices for thermal out of Minerva for export at US$52 per tonne in the first half year and US$68, agreed, in the second half. Also that the average exchange rate A$ v US$ is an average A$1.08 to the Greenback in the second half year.

Coal prices out of Yarrabee and Ashton set against a benchmark figure of US$55.65 a tonne in the first 9 months, and US$85 per tonne in the last three months, the latter not yet agreed.

Profits would gain or lose by about A$2 million by any agreement above or below US$85 per tonne (based on benchmark thermal) for Ashton and Yarrabee coal. Coal from these mines varies between thermal, PCI and semi-soft and the US$85 per tonne should vary by the same ratio as previously indicated by Felix Resources.

 

[noirua]

Following on from the above:
The profit guess for Y/E 30th June 2008, $140 - $150 million, are worked out on the basis of coal prices for thermal out of Minerva for export at US$52 per tonne in the first half year and US$68, agreed, in the second half. Also that the average exchange rate A$ v US$ is an average A$1.08 to the Greenback in the second half year.

Coal prices out of Yarrabee and Ashton set against a benchmark figure of US$55.65 a tonne in the first 9 months, and US$85 per tonne in the last three months, the latter not yet agreed.

Profits would gain or lose by about A$2 million "FOR EVERY US$1 PRICE MOVEMENT" from any agreement above or below US$85 per tonne (based on benchmark thermal) for Ashton and Yarrabee coal. Coal from these mines varies between thermal, PCI and semi-soft and the US$85 per tonne should vary by the same ratio as previously indicated by Felix Resources.

Clarified last paragraph above by adding "FOR EVERY US$1 PRICE MOVEMENT".
Felix share price has continued to power on after the following report (up 46 cents at $8.47). "Australian, South African Coal jumps to record on supply curbs": http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aQt.oNGyI70M&refer=home