FLX - Felix Resources

[michael_selway]

"I have probably held from 1986 so also a long termer. Would have been a large percentage of my holdings at various times but I have sold down over the last year to enter other stocks. It is pleasing to see such a turn around for a company which promised so much in the 80's and 90's but was unable to get projects over the line. Purchasing Yarrabee with the remainder of the Aurion money was a brilliant move, and the further expansion into White Mining has turned this into a serious coal company. I no longer believe there is much risk in the stock, notwithstanding US corrections"

Wow since 1986 thats ages ago!

thx

MS

 

[Reefer]

MS, Noirua has been in even longer!!!
There is something afoot with Felix. Up 33 cents today in a fairly lousy market. The buyer is content to let the price slip back every few hours before pouncing again, been the same for the last few days. Someone is accumulating.
Rather than any Xsrata involvement, it may merely be the clients of "friendly" brokers being in receipt of the latest broker reports. They must be updating their targets in view of the excellent September Quarter report.

 

[noirua]

I won't make any forecasts for Felix. All I will say is that MD, Mr Brian Flannery, confirmed a price agreement for thermal coal out of the Minerva Mine in Queensland, at US$15 above the 2007 agreed price, starting from 1st January 2008. Note this radio broadcast that is 25 minutes long: http://www.brr.com.au/event/FLX/889/32271

Mr Flannery also confirmed plans to start shipping coal from the Athena Mine (51%) (near Minerva) from 2012. Inferred coal resource is 560 million tonnes and is the same size as the whole of Moolarben. Previous plans were to ramp up to 10 million tonnes per annum eventually.

Felix own 15.4% of NCIG. The company that is responsible for building the Newcastle Port Extension.

 

[Reefer]

Calmly trashed the $8 barrier did Felix - last sale $8.10, buyer offers $8.16 and not much in the way to $9. This is a huge performance in a day where the overall market is down so much. Something is happening apart from future forecasts imo.

 

[Reefer]

Notice that there are over 400 trades now, many of them going through at around 50 shares. Is it possible some brokers clerk has whacked the computer on to automatically buy 50 every minute and then gone off to a long lunch?

 

[michael_selway]

MS, Noirua has been in even longer!!!
There is something afoot with Felix. Up 33 cents today in a fairly lousy market. The buyer is content to let the price slip back every few hours before pouncing again, been the same for the last few days. Someone is accumulating.
Rather than any Xsrata involvement, it may merely be the clients of "friendly" brokers being in receipt of the latest broker reports. They must be updating their targets in view of the excellent September Quarter report.

really when was FLX listed!?

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 7.8 23.0 35.8 52.4
DPS 6.0 4.9 13.8 12.7

Yep have to load up on coal!

MS

 

[noirua]

really when was FLX listed!?
MS

Hi m_s, Felix Resources (Meekatharra Minerals) was formed in 1970 as a private company and was first quoted on the ASX in 1978.
The equivalent all-time high in 1981 was around $65.00 a share, in the Great Mining Boom. The boom was fuelled by UK investors who were able to by Aussie shares quite easily in those days. I believe it is now more complicated and they are excluded from rights issues and share purchase plans - the Americans always have been, due to their own laws. Money laundering regulations may not have helped.

 

[noirua]

The quick rise in Felix Resources stock to over $8.00 seems to have been driven very hard. I have now reduced my holding earlier this morning.

 

[Reefer]

You timed it pretty well Noirua as they have struggled in later trade. Still not sure why all the activity but it appears to me there is a concerted accumulation of stock by someone. Either taking a stake in the company or an update by one of the brokers which we haven't yet seen.

 

[michael_selway]

You timed it pretty well Noirua as they have struggled in later trade. Still not sure why all the activity but it appears to me there is a concerted accumulation of stock by someone. Either taking a stake in the company or an update by one of the brokers which we haven't yet seen.

The thing is all the below are takeover target literally, not speculation

All are producing and have forecast increase in production (& EPS)

Mine life is not bad as well, and coal price has been going up

So you could say these are all sitting ducks, just need to take a pick

CEY, FLX, GCL, MCC, (RSP-NHC), WHC, AQA, COK, NEC

However market correction may hit these a bit

thx

MS

 

[noirua]

The thing is all the below are takeover target literally, not speculation

All are producing and have forecast increase in production (& EPS)

Mine life is not bad as well, and coal price has been going up

So you could say these are all sitting ducks, just need to take a pick

CEY, FLX, GCL, MCC, (RSP-NHC), WHC, AQA, COK, NEC

However market correction may hit these a bit

thx

MS

Hi m_s et al, I like that "sitting ducks". I remember speaking to an old soldier who fought in Burma during the last world war. He said, that an opening in the jungle was fired on for over an hour and most died, he was a fortunate survivor. Just like a patch of grass land that is mowed in both directions, you look back and there are a few stalks of grass still standing "they are the survivors".

One or two will survive. What is your betting on FLX?

 

[noirua]

You timed it pretty well Noirua as they have struggled in later trade. Still not sure why all the activity but it appears to me there is a concerted accumulation of stock by someone. Either taking a stake in the company or an update by one of the brokers which we haven't yet seen.

Hi Reefer et al, I'm starting to lose the plot a bit with Felix after 24 years of reality. I thought, originally, that a bid could come in between $8 and $9 and now the stock has, for a short period, gone through the $8.00 barrier. $10.00 is my absolute top price for Felix Resources, in a bid situation, and despite the assets probably being worth a tops of $2 billion ( equates to $10.00 a share) - where to now?

 

[michael_selway]

Hi Reefer et al, I'm starting to lose the plot a bit with Felix after 24 years of reality. I thought, originally, that a bid could come in between $8 and $9 and now the stock has, for a short period, gone through the $8.00 barrier. $10.00 is my absolute top price for Felix Resources, in a bid situation, and despite the assets probably being worth a tops of $2 billion ( equates to $10.00 a share) - where to now?

Hi i think $10 sounds like a good figure and min one would think

The 30 yrs mine life is really attractive, for China esp, who really need the energy source startign straight away if possible

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 7.8 23.0 35.8 52.6
DPS 6.0 4.9 13.8 12.7

thx

MS

Date: 15/10/2007
Author: Andrew Trounson
Source: The Australian --- Page: 37
Vietnam will increase its imports of thermal coal for power generation fromalmost zero to as much as 30 million tonnes annually by about 2011. The nationof 85 million people will need to source coal to satisfy demand for energy thatgrows at 15% each year, while overall economic expansion runs at 8% and more. Amajor supplier of coal will be Australia, and in late October 2007 a Vietnamesedelegation is visiting that country. Talks have already been held betweenElectricity Vietnam and Felix Resources, Rio Tinto and Xstrata. A number ofoverseas utility groups are keen to invest in new power stations in Vietnam

Date: 30/10/2007
Author: Stephen Wisenthal
Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 16
There are many coal producers benefitting from the record coal price,underpinned by significant demand from Asia. Although stocks such as MacarthurCoal, New Hope and Felix Resources improved on 29 October 2007, Felix MD BrianFlannery identified port and rail infrastructure bottlenecks as a 2007 growthconstraint. The high stock prices for coal firms relies on the supply and demandimbalance, according to Fat Prophets' Gavin Wendt, head of mining andresources research

 

[noirua]

Interesting rumour that AMCI and former White Mining shareholders, they have over 69% of Felix stock, may be seeking to build on their holdings and take FLX private.

 

[noirua]

Hi i think $10 sounds like a good figure and min one would think

The 30 yrs mine life is really attractive, for China esp, who really need the energy source startign straight away if possible

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 7.8 23.0 35.8 52.6
DPS 6.0 4.9 13.8 12.7

thx

MS

Hi m_s, interesting part of your post about Vietnam. Felix are seeking to supply anthracite to Vietnam from their HarryBrandt mine. This is likely to be a few years away at best. - good luck

 

[michael_selway]

Hi m_s, interesting part of your post about Vietnam. Felix are seeking to supply anthracite to Vietnam from their HarryBrandt mine. This is likely to be a few years away at best. - good luck

Hi Noirua, do you know anything about RIV?

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 3.5 5.8 6.0 51.7
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

thx

MS

Business Description
Riversdale Mining Limited (RIV, formerly known as Wave Capital Limited and WaivCom Worldwide Limited) is involved in exploration and development of coal mining in Africa.

Company Strategy
RIVs principal objective is to build a successful coal exploration and mining business operating in South Africa and Mozambique. Main asset is a Zululand Anthracite colliery, where company targets 17 years mining operation. Exploration upside is seen through Mozambique Coal project. Work also continued on a bankable feasibility study for development of the Riversdale Anthracite Colliery (RAC). RIV continued to accumulate coal prospective tenements in Mosamibique and entered in to a JV deal with Tata group to facilitate development. RIV aims to apply funds in an efficient manner with a view to provide above average and sustainable returns to shareholders. RIV also adopts high standards of occupational health and safety, environmental management and ethics. Riversdale Mining reported NPAT down 80.2% to $5.02m for the year ended 30 June 2007. Revenues from ordinary activities were $72m. Revenue and net profit for the year ended 30 June 2007 includes a full year of operating contribution from Zululand Anthracite Colliery (ZAC). Diluted EPS was 3.52 cents compared to 29.81 cents last year. Net operating cash flow was $18.2m compared to $2.34m last year. No dividend was declared.

 

[noirua]

Hi M_S, I'm not keen on stocks mining in Africa and think they may take quite a few more years to develop and create sufficient infrastructure. One company called Lonrho Africa, seems to be one of the leading lights in Africa and they often take a stake in anything with interesting potential.

Meanwhile, Felix Resources, with no interests in Africa, have recovered from profit taking and are up 47 cents at $7.87 today. Quite a few unsubstantiated rumours are going the rounds and the court case over Moolarben is expected at any moment.

 

[Reefer]

Either a takeover or the Moolarben news imo, FLX currently up 11% for the day. But why did they drop so much yesterday? This is an extremely volatile stock for a producing miner, it moves 5 to 10% a day, and massive amounts of small trades which indicates to me that one holder may be accumulating.

 

[noirua]

Either a takeover or the Moolarben news imo, FLX currently up 11% for the day. But why did they drop so much yesterday? This is an extremely volatile stock for a producing miner, it moves 5 to 10% a day, and massive amounts of small trades which indicates to me that one holder may be accumulating.

Very difficult to know if anyone is accumulating or not. If a substantial holder has put in an order for stock they do not have to make an announcement until the order is completed.

Lots of rumours flying about. AMCI may try and take their holding to 29.99%, just shy of 30%, when they would have to bid.
The moolarben court case decision is dragging on and old thoughts that an out of court deal would be a better idea. Xstrata would gain a great deal by holding a controlling interest in Moolarben, as the project is adjoining their Ulan open-cut and underground mines.
Peabody and Rio Tinto have mines close to Moolarben in the Hunter Valley.

Any bid for Felix Resources would have to be between $9.00 and $11.00 and have the support of former White Mining shareholders who are rumoured to have raised their stake in Felix from 48.8% to 50.1%.

***Above are my own opinions and not from any announcements by Felix Resources or from any other source.

Felix finished the day at a 4 year closing high of $8.21, up 81 cents, with 427,690 shares traded.

 

[michael_selway]

Very difficult to know if anyone is accumulating or not. If a substantial holder has put in an order for stock they do not have to make an announcement until the order is completed.

Lots of rumours flying about. AMCI may try and take their holding to 29.99%, just shy of 30%, when they would have to bid.
The moolarben court case decision is dragging on and old thoughts that an out of court deal would be a better idea. Xstrata would gain a great deal by holding a controlling interest in Moolarben, as the project is adjoining their Ulan open-cut and underground mines.
Peabody and Rio Tinto have mines close to Moolarben in the Hunter Valley.

Any bid for Felix Resources would have to be between $9.00 and $11.00 and have the support of former White Mining shareholders who are rumoured to have raised their stake in Felix from 48.8% to 50.1%.

***Above are my own opinions and not from any announcements by Felix Resources or from any other source.

Felix finished the day at a 4 year closing high of $8.21, up 81 cents, with 427,690 shares traded.

Hi Noirua, do you know when the Court Case will release its final decision?

thx

MS

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 7.8 23.0 35.8 52.6
DPS 6.0 4.9 13.8 12.7