FLX - Felix Resources

[noirua]

The problems at the Port of Newcastle, NSW, are continuing after Xstrata's proposed purchase of the Anvil Hill prospective thermal coalmine, from Centennial Coal.

The Xstrata legal action against the NSW mining managers wish to transfer their land, within the Moolaraben Project, to Felix Resources, continues at the NSW Supreme Court.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22447484-5005200,00.html

 

[noirua]

Annual Report of Felix Resources for the Year Ending 30th June 2007 (68 page download):

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070925/pdf/314qvvgkp6m4cp.pdf

 

[noirua]

Annual Report of Felix Resources for the Year Ending 30th June 2007 (68 page download):

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070925/pdf/314qvvgkp6m4cp.pdf

Looking through the Annual report it can be seen why MD Mr Brian Flannery is so upbeat about prospects for Felix Resources in the year ending 2008 and thereafter.

Expenditure will drop from a A$93 million figure in Y/E 2007 to about A$73 million in Y/E 2008.

Both the Minerva Mine and Ashton Longwall have overcome problems and a larger shovel has been installed at Yarrabee. All three mines should work to full capacity in the coming year (Coal production is expected to rise by around 23% in Y/E 2008).
Excess production of thermal and semi-soft coking coal from Yarrabee and minerva is being sold at spot prices. These prices range up to US$70 per tonne for thermal and US$76 per tonne for semi-soft coking coal.

Thermal coal agreements from 1st April 2007 were set at very much higher levels, low US$50's per tonne, and these prices will impact profits until 31st March 2008. Prices after this date are expected to be set higher in the US$60's per tonne for thermal.

Felix are in negotiations with KEPCO and are expected to announce an agreement to sell 10% of Moolarben for A$100 million. Talks continue to sell 49% of Yarrabee and a figure around A$68 million is expected.

 

[michael_selway]

Looking through the Annual report it can be seen why MD Mr Brian Flannery is so upbeat about prospects for Felix Resources in the year ending 2008 and thereafter.

Expenditure will drop from a A$93 million figure in Y/E 2007 to about A$73 million in Y/E 2008.

Both the Minerva Mine and Ashton Longwall have overcome problems and a larger shovel has been installed at Yarrabee. All three mines should work to full capacity in the coming year (Coal production is expected to rise by around 23% in Y/E 2008).
Excess production of thermal and semi-soft coking coal from Yarrabee and minerva is being sold at spot prices. These prices range up to US$70 per tonne for thermal and US$76 per tonne for semi-soft coking coal.

Thermal coal agreements from 1st April 2007 were set at very much higher levels, low US$50's per tonne, and these prices will impact profits until 31st March 2008. Prices after this date are expected to be set higher in the US$60's per tonne for thermal.

Felix are in negotiations with KEPCO and are expected to announce an agreement to sell 10% of Moolarben for A$100 million. Talks continue to sell 49% of Yarrabee and a figure around A$68 million is expected.

Would you believe it, NHC took over RSP (1:1)!

NHC - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 7.8 8.4 9.5 --
DPS 7.6 4.5 5.5 --

RSP - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 2.7 15.6 29.0 32.5
DPS 0.0 0.0 10.4 11.0

thanks

MS

 

[noirua]

Felix Resources remains one of the very few Aussie quoted coal stocks remaining after the very many bids in the last few years. This alone should push FLX higher. My view is that Felix remain very cheap. I do hold a large percentage of my portfolio in this stock, however.

 

[noirua]

The ongoing case, Ulan Mining (90% owned by Xstrata, 10% by Mitsubishi) versus Moolarben Coal (90% owned by Felix Resources, 10% owned by Soljitz), at the NSW Supreme Court, should be completed shortly. It is always possible, on the result, that either party may seek to appeal the decision.

The decision should be listed here, in due course: http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/cases/nsw/supreme_ct/recent-cases.html

 

[noirua]

Felix stock has moved on to $5.70 in stronger trading conditions than usual. Stock remains nervous as we await the court decision and from there a possible appeal.

 

[noirua]

The ongoing case, Ulan Mining (90% owned by Xstrata, 10% by Mitsubishi) versus Moolarben Coal (90% owned by Felix Resources, 10% owned by Soljitz), at the NSW Supreme Court, should be completed shortly. It is always possible, on the result, that either party may seek to appeal the decision.

The decision should be listed here, in due course: http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/cases/nsw/supreme_ct/recent-cases.html

The above case will continue at 10am on Tuesday, 2nd October at Common Law Division, Administrative Law List.
Justice (Acting) Smart
Court 7, Level 1, Wentworth Chambers.
Hearing - Part Heard
1.030025/07 Ulan Coal Mines Ltd., v Minister For Mineral Resources & 1 ORS.

 

[noirua]

In the past the First Quarterly Accounts of FLX, to 30th September, have not mean't all that much.

This time, with the ongoing court case over Moolarben, these will mean a great deal more: As White Minings' former shareholders hold about 43% of Felix Resources. Would they cave in and accept an offer for their stock, as RMM have done?

The latest quarterly results will show whether Minerva, Yarrabee and Ashton open cut and longwall mines, are infact producing to the maximum now, as forecast by MD, Mr Brian Flannery.

 

[noirua]

Felix Resources trade at $5.91 this morning, which is quite a recovery from the recent low of $4.55, however, the very light trading in this stock may worry some.

The NSW Supreme Court Decision is expected very shortly.

 

[noirua]

One of the smaller factors in FLX's recent recovery has been its interest in Western Plains Resources. Felix stock interest is valued at just $3.6 million but the royalty interest on iron ore sales of 3mtpa will be considerable.

 

[noirua]

Peabody Energy have just completed a thermal Coal sale agreement with Japanese Utilities for 2008 at US$68 per tonne. About 25% up on last years agreement.

 

[noirua]

Felix have reached $6.00 this morning, even though there are some announcements due in the near future, and not all of them certain. W.H. Ireland has also advised shareholders to reduce their holdings by 50%.

The First Quarter Results are due out on 17th October and are followed by the AGM after that. The much talked about court case decision is due very shortly - some may have overlooked the fact that an appeal could follow that decision.

 

[noirua]

Felix have moved on to a 4-year closing high of $6.10 and are now the most interesting coal stock around, now that Centennial have fallen to Xstrata.

Providing the court case over Moolarben goes in FLX's favour and Wednesdays Quarterly Report is as favourable as expected, it should point the company on to a continued upward path.

 

[michael_selway]

Felix have moved on to a 4-year closing high of $6.10 and are now the most interesting coal stock around, now that Centennial have fallen to Xstrata.

Providing the court case over Moolarben goes in FLX's favour and Wednesdays Quarterly Report is as favourable as expected, it should point the company on to a continued upward path.

Slightly revised earnings

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 7.8 22.0 41.9 70.7
DPS 6.0 5.3 12.7 15.9

Also dont forget GCL, MCC, (RSP-NHC), CEY also AQA, have you heard of them?

thx

MS

 

[noirua]

Also dont forget GCL, MCC, (RSP-NHC), CEY also AQA, have you heard of them?

thx

MS

Hi M_S, Thou knowest that I have indeed heard of these!.

GCL is improving again after Xstrata lost interest and others built up stakes. CEY is going into the hands of Xstrata,; Pity about all the debts as they let Anvill Hill go for bottom dollar, imho. MCC has a number of problems to overcome, otherwise they should be priced at double FLX. AQA are a bit mixed: Buyback is a plus and iron ore interests, but lower coal production a minus and appeal and legal proceeding a hinderance.

 

[noirua]

Felix Resources jumped to a 4.5 year high of $6.50, the days high. Trading rose to 1,032,508 shares, high for FLX as shares are tightly held.

Quarterly report is due out tomorrow and the rise in prices of thermal coal ($71.50 a tonne out of Newcastle), PCI coal and semi-soft coking coal, should impact on profits for the current year.

 

[michael_selway]

Hi M_S, Thou knowest that I have indeed heard of these!.

GCL is improving again after Xstrata lost interest and others built up stakes. CEY is going into the hands of Xstrata,; Pity about all the debts as they let Anvill Hill go for bottom dollar, imho. MCC has a number of problems to overcome, otherwise they should be priced at double FLX. AQA are a bit mixed: Buyback is a plus and iron ore interests, but lower coal production a minus and appeal and legal proceeding a hinderance.

Yep besides GCL, MCC, (RSP-NHC), FLX, CEY, AQA, there's an explorer COK dong well also

FLX - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 7.8 22.0 41.9 75.3
DPS 6.0 5.3 12.7 15.9

thx

MS

 

[noirua]

Yep besides GCL, MCC, (RSP-NHC), FLX, CEY, AQA, there's an explorer COK dong well also

thx

MS

Hi M_S et al, Cockatoo are raising lots of cash by share sales to drill their tenements in Queensland, and this appears to be holding them back. Coal is one of the Princes these days so money will pour in. Lots of good thermal and semi-soft coal near their areas.

Not much interest in FLX on ASF. Considering the stock has come up from 38 cents in 2003 to $6.50 last evening, they have missed out on something. Lots of interesting prospects in the next 12 months - good luck

 

[michael_selway]

Hi M_S et al, Cockatoo are raising lots of cash by share sales to drill their tenements in Queensland, and this appears to be holding them back. Coal is one of the Princes these days so money will pour in. Lots of good thermal and semi-soft coal near their areas.

Not much interest in FLX on ASF. Considering the stock has come up from 38 cents in 2003 to $6.50 last evening, they have missed out on something. Lots of interesting prospects in the next 12 months - good luck

Hi Noirua do you know much about WHC?

thx

MS

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 7.5 6.2 32.3 60.0
DPS 0.0 3.0 16.0 30.0

Whitehaven Coal Limited (WHC) is a coal mining company with the projects located in the Gunnedah Region of New South Wales. Company operates two open cut mines near Boggabri and is a major shareholder of the Werris Creek mine north of Quirindi. WHC is actively seeking to develop several other small mines in the region and a major longwall mine south of Narrabri. Whitehaven also operates the Coal Handling and Preparation Plant (CHPP) and rail loader at Gunnedah.