FiftyEight Fluffs Around In Futures

[tech/a]

Is this the worlds biggest short squeeze?

Apart from a bit of gold I went cash in my super early on Brexit.

Quite happy to sit on the sidelines at the moment. Maybe buy some Sep put options..... I think. Maybe I should figure out options first

Buy put options which has you basically long
OR
Sell Put options and be short?

 

[cynic]

Buy put options which has you basically long
OR
Sell Put options and be short?

If you substitute the word "put" with the word "call" then that would be correct in respect to delta. However, there are always the other greeks to consider (theta, vega etc.).

 

[fiftyeight]

And this is why I have not touched options yet

I want to be short with fixed risk. Not fussed if I blow my initial outlay, just do not want to be holding any contracts during this volatility.

 

[CanOz]

Think of it like insurance. If you're selling Puts you are selling a right (but not an obligation) to sell the underlying at a certain price and you collect a premium for doing so. If you are buying a put, you are buying the right to sell the underlying at a certain price and you pay a premium for doing so.

Selling options requires a different skillset, usually for advanced practitioners.

Thats all i know...

 

[fiftyeight]

That is what I thought???

ASX for example

I buy a put option with a strike price of 5000 (the option to sell at 5000). It falls to 4800. I go on a holiday.

So I have a fixed risk, whatever I pay for the Option and an uncapped reward if the ASX falls off a cliff

 

[elbee]

That is what I thought???

ASX for example

I buy a put option with a strike price of 5000 (the option to sell at 5000). It falls to 4800. I go on a holiday.

So I have a fixed risk, whatever I pay for the Option and an uncapped reward if the ASX falls off a cliff

...and stays off the cliff to expiration (or you exercise early)

 

[fiftyeight]

What is with the difference between margin requirements? I thought it would be the other way around as buying the put has limited risk?

 

[CanOz]

What is with the difference between margin requirements? I thought it would be the other way around as buying the put has limited risk?


View attachment 67328

I'm guessing one is regular trading hours and one is overnight? Sometimes referred to as day trade margin and overnight margin...

 

[fiftyeight]

So I am way short. Liquidated my super early on Brexit (except for my gold) when I started shorting . Cashed more $$$$ than expected but also gave way more than I should of back.

 

[fiftyeight]

Cannot find much on trading the close of the es mini.

Does anyone have some good material on trading the close in general?

 

[fiftyeight]

This looks like it might be interesting if you are looking at learning Python

Introduction to Python for Data Science

https://www.edx.org/course/introduction-python-data-science-microsoft-dat208x-2

 

[fiftyeight]

Any hints of the end of day vol.

It explodes out of the range of volume that has been trading but does not move the market.

Is there some un written code between traders to cover 15 minutes before the end of the pit session?

 

[CanOz]

That's the closing auction imbalance, sometimes in the tens of billions of dollars. Google s&p futures closing auction imbalance.

 

[fiftyeight]

So what happens, they all get the signal that it is time to start liquidating positions and hit out 1000's of at market orders?

It would make sense in my head if the volatility suddenly went through the roof but it doesn't really. I get people trying to get flatish but why does the huge volume have such small effect on price?

If you wanted to build a big longer time frame position, would you not just wait for the close?

 

[CanOz]

So what happens, they all get the signal that it is time to start liquidating positions and hit out 1000's of at market orders?

It would make sense in my head if the volatility suddenly went through the roof but it doesn't really. I get people trying to get flatish but why does the huge volume have such small effect on price?

If you wanted to build a big longer time frame position, would you not just wait for the close?

AFAIK, the market makers have to wear it. The same thing happens on the SPI at the close. A ton of orders hit the market and it only moves around in a 5 tick range or so...Not sure of the process here, perhaps someone else can give the narrative? I've never been around long enough in many markets to see the close or even contemplate it, but its interesting. Danny Boy aka Mr.Top Step always talks about the closing balance.

 

[RowanC]

Cannot find much on trading the close of the es mini.

Does anyone have some good material on trading the close in general?

Trading the market on close is one of the best trades you can make IMO. However it would not be an easy trade in something like the ES.

I think you were to pull up a DOM for something like the SPI or even the FTSE Futures (smaller markets) and watch the final 10 minutes of trade, you'd see plenty of buyers and selling working really hard to execute their orders. Which basically means it's a great opportunity to make a couple of easy ticks.

However this wouldn't be obvious on a chart - you'd need to look at the order flow.

 

[fiftyeight]

Yeah pretty much just watching Jigsaw and trying to pick up a few ticks.

The ES is the only thing open at that time of day before work. 2.30 wake is early enough

 

[fiftyeight]

Change in roster again haha so back looking for an Asian market I can trade.

I already have NT8 and Rancho, so need continuous contract and historical data. Any ideas where I can get data that wont break the bank that will meet the above needs?

 

[fiftyeight]

I can get the SGX exchange, which does have a Nikkei 225 product. This will be $85 US a month. I guess I will get access to their other products as well like the Nifty. I could use this for NT8 and Rancho. Then use AMP CQG for RapidTrader Pro and to execute
or
Esignal for $147 US a month and that will connected through the OSE and then use AMP as above.

Not cheap but at least I will be trading in a convenient time zone (for now) and will stop all the stuffing around. Or I am missing something really obvious

 

[fiftyeight]

Edit, the SGX exchange is via Kinetic