FGL - Fosters Group

[Buster]

G'Day Kennas,

Yep, it's had a good run. I sold out last week.

I'm very tempted to take some profit.. but I bought early in the year and the plan is to hold them for a minimum of 12 months for the CGT benefit rather the marginal rate of tax.. With any luck the SP will remain around todays price for another month or so..

Will see how it pans out, probably back to the $5 mark tomorrow now that I've revealed my 'strategy'..

Cheers,

Buster

 

[yogi-in-oz]

Hi folks,

FGL ... from this end, Fosters should be rallying strongly,
from about 15012007-thru-to-05022007, at least.

happy days

yogi



=====

 

[hector]

Yep, it's had a good run. I sold out last week.

Would be very dangerous for private equity to buy this out at the moment before Southcorp is bedded down. Maybe mid next year.

Anyone still holding this?

 

[Buster]

Anyone still holding this?

Yeah.. Why? Should I be bailing out!!

I hold just over 5000 of them, but plan to reduce to 3000 around April/May (after Div) if everything keeps ticking along as it is....

Regards,

Buster

 

[hector]

Yeah.. Why? Should I be bailing out!!

Buster

No, not yet - I was just getting a little anxious holding.

The SP hasn't closed below a line of support yet, or below 89 day MA, but I was hoping to cross over $7.00 and keep climbing away!

 

[hector]

Fosters Chart

 

[Realist]

Anyone still holding this?

Yes.

And I intend to hold this and WDC for 30 more years.... :

There is no reason to sell FGL unless you need the money.

It wont do much price wise but you'll get a nice safe dividend each year. It's like having money in a term deposit, only better.

And the best thing of all, when you buy beer and wine you are buying it from your own company!!

Cheers!!

 

[yogi-in-oz]

Hi folks,

FGL ... from this end, Fosters should be rallying strongly,
from about 15012007-thru-to-05022007, at least.

happy days

yogi



=====

Hi folks,

FGL ... up on Friday, with increased volume, as it
lifted off its lows, ahead of a positive period,
as detailed above .....

happy days

yogi

 

[transit]

Realist, i know your a big fan of this company. Do you think they're a good buy at their current price at ~$6.30?

I remember hearing that they were having a lot of trouble expanding into Asia, the chinese don't like the flavour of Aust beer and the branding is ambiguous. Further, sales of beer in Aust, is continually declining, right? plus the beer market is turning very boutique, similiar to the wine industry where drinkers want to feel sophisticated and try obscure brands and flavours. thoughts welcome.

 

[hector]

Not holding at present, but I thought FGL's brightest hope was expanding wine sales into US market. Realist?

 

[UMike]

Resellers of Beer wine and Spirits are very unhappy with the sale side of things.

I sold today at a huge loss. Better things to buy.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I'm still in two minds as to whether to take part in the off market buyback for FGL.

It closes today.

Any thoughts?

Garpal

 

[Fab]

When will we know the final buy back price and allocation?

 

[Realist]

FGL is $6.82 with a P/E ratio of over 20. And a dividend of just over 3%.

A little too expensive to be buying now. It is overvalued because of takeover speculation. Possibly 20% overvalued I think.

I'd wait and buy on BAD NEWS.

When something goes wrong, bad news comes out and the price drops - that is the time to buy. And that is the time if there is a takeover it will be initiated.

 

[Realist]

Resellers of Beer wine and Spirits are very unhappy with the sale side of things.

I sold today at a huge loss. Better things to buy.

What did you sell at a loss? Not FGL surely?

 

[Glenhaven]

FGL is $6.82 with a P/E ratio of over 20. And a dividend of just over 3%.

A little too expensive to be buying now. It is overvalued because of takeover speculation. Possibly 20% overvalued I think.

I'd wait and buy on BAD NEWS.

When something goes wrong, bad news comes out and the price drops - that is the time to buy. And that is the time if there is a takeover it will be initiated.

Agree that they are too expensive, but believe that a takeover cannot be far away. This makes me want to buy more (have a small holding from many years ago), but have this same problem that they are overpriced.

The other fact is that the wine glut is expected to be over this year. Current vintage is very small. This will have a significant impact on wine prices and Forsters profit.

 

[Realist]

FGL is a great company, a fantastic company actually.

They'll always sell at a premium as your money is safe, Aussies are not gonna stop drinking in a hurry. And beer wont get any cheaper, infact wine is more than likely going to go up and up.

So buying FGL now is not silly, if you want to buy FGL I suggest you buy some now, some later, and some even later - averaging out the price and having some in case there is a takeover.. In the meantime you'll collect adequate dividends.

Buying alot of shares now is probably not wise though.

 

[Fab]

When will we know the buy back price?

 

[Buster]

Wow,

Eerie, spoooky quiet here, especially given the news of late..

The plan was to reduce my holdings in Fosters a little while back, but ended up picking up a couple thousand more in the recent 'unpleasantness'..

My biggest issue with the recent announcement is the claim there has been numerous discussions with 'suitors' (Five in number apparently?!!?).. What is the go with that after the constant denial to the market over the last twelve months??

Surely this is a little more than 'misleading'.. I would of thought the ASX would be asking some hard questions of the board right about now..

Anyone shed some light?

Regards,

Buster

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Wow,

Eerie, spoooky quiet here, especially given the news of late..

The plan was to reduce my holdings in Fosters a little while back, but ended up picking up a couple thousand more in the recent 'unpleasantness'..

My biggest issue with the recent announcement is the claim there has been numerous discussions with 'suitors' (Five in number apparently?!!?).. What is the go with that after the constant denial to the market over the last twelve months??

Surely this is a little more than 'misleading'.. I would of thought the ASX would be asking some hard questions of the board right about now..

Anyone shed some light?

Regards,

Buster

Am equally confused. Buster what are your thoughts on the buyback. I passed up on the last one. Any takeover ideas?

Garpal