Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

FGE - Forge Group

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So_Cynical said:
Yep noticed this ann today...is this the old BHP plant? the one that will realisticly, probably never re-open. :dunno:
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FGE owns Cimmco who are a growing fabricator / installer for EPCM works.
I do not think FGE has any connection with now defunct BHP Engineering. It was Hatch who had most of old BHP Engg people.
 
So_Cynical said:
Yep noticed this ann today...is this the old BHP plant? the one that will realisticly, probably never re-open. :dunno:
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Yep this is the Ravensthorpe nickel operation BHP sold about a year ago after taking a $3 billion bath for $340 mil.

http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/...e-nickel-project/story-e6frergx-1225808829899

This is a example of why I like to invest in the "pick and shovel" suppliers rather than the miners themselves. If even BHP can make a $3 billion loss on a project like this. I see a whole lot less risk investing in the company with a contract to build the plant rather than the producer who is often totally reliant the price of a particular commodity.
 
robusta said:
This is a example of why I like to invest in the "pick and shovel" suppliers rather than the miners themselves. If even BHP can make a $3 billion loss on a project like this. I see a whole lot less risk investing in the company with a contract to build the plant rather than the producer who is often totally reliant the price of a particular commodity.
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With Nickel trading at around 25K USD/tn, Nickel is once again a very profitable commodity to mine and any price upside from here is pure profit...that's why everybody should have some portfolio exposure to miners, buying quality miners at a low point in there price cycle somewhat de-risks them.

Personally i probably need to include/add 1 or 2 mine service providers to the portfolio, but then the reason why i don't like the service providers in general is that the moment a company wins a contract is the very moment the clock starts ticking on them losing that contract...when a miner has 25 years worth of nickel in the ground and a 2 billion dollar plant next door to that nickel then that's a certainty..and very low risk.

Just want to point out that i do consider Ravensthorpe to be high risk when compared to MRE - Minara.
 
So_Cynical said:
With Nickel trading at around 25K USD/tn, Nickel is once again a very profitable commodity to mine and any price upside from here is pure profit...that's why everybody should have some portfolio exposure to miners, buying quality miners at a low point in there price cycle somewhat de-risks them.

Personally i probably need to include/add 1 or 2 mine service providers to the portfolio, but then the reason why i don't like the service providers in general is that the moment a company wins a contract is the very moment the clock starts ticking on them losing that contract...when a miner has 25 years worth of nickel in the ground and a 2 billion dollar plant next door to that nickel then that's a certainty..and very low risk.

Just want to point out that i do consider Ravensthorpe to be high risk when compared to MRE - Minara.
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Process wise my understanding RNO was a hot potato for BHPB and they happy to book losses.
How well FQM does with the faulty process is a question mark unless their purchased price has made allowance for it.

strange with BHPB however that they failed in HBI plant and just wrote it off. Any common person would have found the plant was a failure.

reading various notes available from public domain I understand BHPB did not have enough material analysis done process wise and installed the plant.

Olympic Dam I understand is having severe problems .

Funny is the investors still happy with lot of diggiing and dealing of soil

Returning to Cimmeco and FGE - I think it will be a high risk for me in case CIMMCO / FGE has undertaken any process warranty.

Disclaimer : I have not read the contract or their scope of works however and DNH. So please DYOR. I could be very wrong and ready for correction
 
fanger said:
It is good news but this stock is having a hard time pushing past the $5 mark. I'm glad I own it thou!
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Next profit upgrade or half yearly report should do the trick.

So_Cynical said:
With Nickel trading at around 25K USD/tn, Nickel is once again a very profitable commodity to mine and any price upside from here is pure profit...that's why everybody should have some portfolio exposure to miners, buying quality miners at a low point in there price cycle somewhat de-risks them.
Click to expand...

The trouble I have personally investing in miners is trying to find a value for them.

First of all you need to predict the future commodity price, this involves looking at the demand and also factoring in any extra or less future supply.

Then you need to look at individual projects and factor in any specific risk's and the cost of extraction along with the usual management risk's.

I am not smart enough to work all this out.:eek:


So_Cynical said:
Personally i probably need to include/add 1 or 2 mine service providers to the portfolio, but then the reason why i don't like the service providers in general is that the moment a company wins a contract is the very moment the clock starts ticking on them losing that contract...when a miner has 25 years worth of nickel in the ground and a 2 billion dollar plant next door to that nickel then that's a certainty..and very low risk.

Just want to point out that i do consider Ravensthorpe to be high risk when compared to MRE - Minara.
Click to expand...

66.2% of my portfolio are mining service, energy service and civil engineering (FGE, MCE and MND) I consider these companies give me indirect exposure to ; coal, oil, iron ore, copper, gold, rare earths, nickel, potash, infrastructure, uranuim, LNG, platinum....

While I have no direct exposure to any particular commodity I do have a strong view that recent high prices will make more projects economical and there should be a strong pipeline of contracts for these companies.:2twocents
 
With so much rain recently I am surprised only 1 contractor (AJL) has issued a profit downgrade....
 
Ok, so I looked in commsec today and saw this for FGE:

EPS 39.7 40.3 43.6 48.7
DPS 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0

WTF!? The guidance for the first half year (from the company) is up 42% according to their announcement on 09/11/2010. It's not 1.5% profit growth!

Sure, the profit could fall for the second half of the year but I highly doubt that. I think the consensus (of 1 guy) is on drugs.

*End of rant* :cool:

I'm a happy holder.
 
drlog said:
Ok, so I looked in commsec today and saw this for FGE:

EPS 39.7 40.3 43.6 48.7
DPS 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0

WTF!? The guidance for the first half year (from the company) is up 42% according to their announcement on 09/11/2010. It's not 1.5% profit growth!

Sure, the profit could fall for the second half of the year but I highly doubt that. I think the consensus (of 1 guy) is on drugs.

*End of rant* :cool:

I'm a happy holder.
Click to expand...


Well they finally put up a forecast for FGE. Maybe this one may suprise the analyst on the upside.
 
sme very strong volume today, and the price has broken the 5.00 historical mark. has hit 5.15 so far today. Looks like some brokerage houses has rerate the stock. Wonder if comsec is one of them. There p/e forcasts are wrong, especially after the company has preddicted strong earnings growth.
 
I was hoping the price would stay under 5 dollars for a little while longer so I could load up on some more.

My IV for Forge this year is over 7 dollars.

Happy days ahead :) for Forge investors.
 
When CLO became a strategic shareholder of FGE the justifications were:

1) The use of CLO back office and contacts to reduce project risk and increase % of jobs won.

2) To become CLO contractor of choice and enter into joint venture projects with CLO.

IMO #1 has probably worked but is hard to quantify.

I have seen no evidence of #2 ....yet
 
Intrinsic Value said:
My IV for Forge this year is over 7 dollars.
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Welcome to ATF IV :)

Care to share how you came to this conclusion with a few basic facts and figures? We have seen you post a few targets in various threads but have not stated or shown you analysis (which is an important part otherwise people could just say anything).
 
Well good luck to all who still hold, i bought when this was the AI group and 10 cents, then topped up at 47 cents after it Split into FGE and AIE, but sold 80% of the holding today :)

Held back at my $3 target that became the $4 target and then $5, for no particular reason other than luck only comes in 3,s :D

Still hold AIE which has gone from about 20 cents to 5 :mad: but will continue to hold as its a well run little company that hopefully will emulate its other half and go to $5 but maybe thats wishfull thinking :rolleyes:
 
Pager said:
Well good luck to all who still hold, i bought when this was the AI group and 10 cents, then topped up at 47 cents after it Split into FGE and AIE, but sold 80% of the holding today :)

Held back at my $3 target that became the $4 target and then $5, for no particular reason other than luck only comes in 3,s :D

Still hold AIE which has gone from about 20 cents to 5 :mad: but will continue to hold as its a well run little company that hopefully will emulate its other half and go to $5 but maybe thats wishfull thinking :rolleyes:
Click to expand...

Well done Pager.
I have never experienced such capital growth. Not even close.
Incredible growth.
 
i too bought this at 50 cents, sold some at 2.50, and continue to hold the rest. My first 10 bagger, and because they pay dividends will continue to hold. I'm free carried and taken some profit. So what happens now is just a bonus for me. $7 is not out of the question. EPS should be about 50 cents. Therefore a Pe of 14 is not out of the question, for a growth stock, usually the PE is between 15 and 20
 
adds4 said:
i too bought this at 50 cents, sold some at 2.50, and continue to hold the rest. My first 10 bagger, and because they pay dividends will continue to hold. I'm free carried and taken some profit. So what happens now is just a bonus for me. $7 is not out of the question. EPS should be about 50 cents. Therefore a Pe of 14 is not out of the question, for a growth stock, usually the PE is between 15 and 20
Click to expand...

Well done :) I got in around $1 and I'm out recently :D hope this one turn out to be a winner for the lot of you....

Still cant figure out why the founder selling their stakes to CLO so cheap so soon..
that really bugger me up and make me lost love in this stock :D

Why? why? why? hehehe they could have kept the stake, increase dividend payout
 

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