FGE - Forge Group
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I'm surprised at how little FGE has been rerated since their earnings forecast upgrade announcement. If their performance in the second half is similar, this would be a 55% increase in NPAT. Yet the stock has only rerated a small fraction of that, an now has pulled back slightly.
Is this just a case of investors being cautious and waiting for the audited figures, or are there other risks or factors I'm not seeing here?
Is this just a case of investors being cautious and waiting for the audited figures, or are there other risks or factors I'm not seeing here?
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It's been nice to see some upward movement lately, but can anyone explain to me why there are so many 1, 2 or 3 volume transactions, always at a discount to the transactions of actual volume?
Is this someone's attempt to buy cheaply after pushing the price down slightly - thereby catching out some who place an order at market value?
Is this someone's attempt to buy cheaply after pushing the price down slightly - thereby catching out some who place an order at market value?
This is a decent stock it mirror WOR in its early day...Maybe it may reach as high as its fore father 
Great management, excellent capital allocation, They treat debt like the way I would take on debt....take it on when you needed then pay it down fast with free cash flow and become debt free and only take them on again when you can generate decent return on capital.
1 bagger so far 10 more to go
Great management, excellent capital allocation, They treat debt like the way I would take on debt....take it on when you needed then pay it down fast with free cash flow and become debt free and only take them on again when you can generate decent return on capital.
1 bagger so far 10 more to go
Announced another profit upgrade. The 6 month profit forcast is now 15m, thats the whole of last yrs profit. Amazing. Still got 6 months to go. The margins they generate are just about staggering. I surpose the consolidation into one building has helped overheads, but the key for me is, they seem to own all the necessary cranes and equipment to undertake the work and so generate high margins because of no rental costs. Would be nice to hear some more contracts won, been quiet on this front the last few months. I surpose you can get all the contracts. Its better to not buy new work, but actually win it with a healthy profit.
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Very pleasing surprise today. Interesting to note that the revenue has only increased 16%, while the profit has soared 184%! There is only so far they can cut costs and expand their margins, so I doubt this pace of profit growth will last for long.
Disclosure: I am a very happy holder
Disclosure: I am a very happy holder
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This latest development seems a bit barmy to me. I can understand FGE offering CLO newly issued shares at a discount as an incentive for CLO, but surely CLO doesn't expect shareholders to sell at a discount to the market?
I'm quite surprised that the major shareholders have gotten on board to sell at a discount. But given that they only hold around 42%, and CLO needs 31% minimum, I can't see how they can get it over the line barring a major slip in the share price...
Does anyone have any thoughts on this?
I'm quite surprised that the major shareholders have gotten on board to sell at a discount. But given that they only hold around 42%, and CLO needs 31% minimum, I can't see how they can get it over the line barring a major slip in the share price...
Does anyone have any thoughts on this?
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Whoops, scratch that, with the new shares issued at $1.90, plus the major shareholders giving up half of theirs, they'll get what they need without the minor shareholders.
Vote No .. Raw deal for FGE I dont like it I aint selling and I aint voting yes
and to add salt to the injury FGE report on the same day
"NPAT exceeds previous corresponding period by 192%"
FGE is a better company though smaller
Great project management
Great Capital Allocation
Great at managing their cash flow and keep debt under control.
what CLO got to show??
and to add salt to the injury FGE report on the same day
"NPAT exceeds previous corresponding period by 192%"
FGE is a better company though smaller
Great project management
Great Capital Allocation
Great at managing their cash flow and keep debt under control.
what CLO got to show??
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The terms of the alliance seem pretty airy too. FGE being their contractor of choice is probably the biggest benefit, but unless there are solid obligations for CLO to give work of particular types to FGE, I'll be very unimpressed.
I hope we see some clarification and detail on the benefits coming out soon. The market wasn't happy about this announcement...
I hope we see some clarification and detail on the benefits coming out soon. The market wasn't happy about this announcement...
Market seems pretty happy now, been making new highs and up another 6 cents today
And if i understand correctly if The alliance with CLO receives the yes vote it will mean current shareholders will receive an offer from CLO to buy 50% of there holdings, not sure how it will work but surely they will need to make it worthwhile so maybe a premium is being factored into the SP ?.
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Nope, it's $2.10, take or leave it. And lets face it, no one is going to take it! Except of course, the major shareholders, who signed on when the SP was much lower. Which is exactly why CLO doesn't need to up their offer - they can get all they need from the major shareholders, who must be feeling pretty green right now.
it was all about CLO getting 30%....the bar was set at $2.10 and both CLO & FGE never expected shareholders to sell at that. It was offered to shareholders because for a partial takeover it must be.
CLO & FGE have what they need from the major shareholders, and those major shareholders obviously see the value in the medium to long term in the strategic alliance.
By achieving the 30% CLO also get 2 Directors on the board, and trust me, the intent would never have been to hand over the reins to CLO hence why $2.10 was set.
It really is a win win and hence why the sp has started to trek northwards.
The next decade for this co. could be quite something and I am on for the ride.
CLO & FGE have what they need from the major shareholders, and those major shareholders obviously see the value in the medium to long term in the strategic alliance.
By achieving the 30% CLO also get 2 Directors on the board, and trust me, the intent would never have been to hand over the reins to CLO hence why $2.10 was set.
It really is a win win and hence why the sp has started to trek northwards.
The next decade for this co. could be quite something and I am on for the ride.
As expected, the Forge directors advised shareholders against accepting Clough's partial takeover offer. An independent analyst report released by the company states the value of FGE stock be in the range of $3.74 - $4.13; which I think is very conservative.
At a current price of $2.85 this is a top quality company available at a bargain price. Worth a look for all you value seeking, long-term, fundamental investors and warren buffett wannabees.
At a current price of $2.85 this is a top quality company available at a bargain price. Worth a look for all you value seeking, long-term, fundamental investors and warren buffett wannabees.
There's been no further news on the new offer to Forge as far as im aware, received my offer documents from CLO today but at an offer price of $2-10 verses the current SP of $2-90 they gotta be kidding :
Been quite volatile this week, on the up again today so should be interesting the next few weeks as CLO wont be getting very many if any acceptances apart from those they have already agreed, although i think they weren't really expecting any, as has been posted they got what they wanted but had to give all shareholders the opportunity to participate.
Hopefully this new bidder will show there hand in the not too distant future.
:Been quite volatile this week, on the up again today so should be interesting the next few weeks as CLO wont be getting very many if any acceptances apart from those they have already agreed, although i think they weren't really expecting any, as has been posted they got what they wanted but had to give all shareholders the opportunity to participate.
Hopefully this new bidder will show there hand in the not too distant future.
Forget about a new bidder showing themselves CLO already has 19.99 % of FGE and the directors have made a commitment to sell 50% of their holdings to CLO to trigger the strategic alliance.
The independant experts value in the targets statement valued the company in the range of $3.74 to $4.13 per share!!!!!
This company with it's ability to retain a large portion of earnings and earn a high ROE on those earnings is IMO worth a whole lot more than the above valuations.
The independant experts value in the targets statement valued the company in the range of $3.74 to $4.13 per share!!!!!
This company with it's ability to retain a large portion of earnings and earn a high ROE on those earnings is IMO worth a whole lot more than the above valuations.
Yes, Forge is my largest holding too.
I am pretty sure negotiations with the mystery bidder have ceased. Maybe they'll approach again in the future.
Forge is also a very, very cashed up company now. In the half year report the company reported that it was sitting on roughly $39m of cash and they just raised another $20m. That is an absolute war chest for a company with a market cap circa $230m. If management can put it to work at current levels of ROE we are set.
I am pretty sure negotiations with the mystery bidder have ceased. Maybe they'll approach again in the future.
Forge is also a very, very cashed up company now. In the half year report the company reported that it was sitting on roughly $39m of cash and they just raised another $20m. That is an absolute war chest for a company with a market cap circa $230m. If management can put it to work at current levels of ROE we are set.
