FER - Fermiscan Limited

[grace]

I have read a little but may be missing something....
With all the blue sky "tests" being calculated aren't people forgetting that it is fundamental to FER that it has access to considerable dedicated time on a synchrotron (i imagine building one wouldn't make it past back of envelope cost calc.s).

I don't see where this has been ticked off - can someone answer?

Even with time being contracted the cost will be susbstantial. Tests for a 2000 trial are focussing on the results but the cost as well as time per test will be crucial. Forget all the calculations - until you find out if FER can get time to handle the possible tests out of, say, Kyoto, without spinning off numbers for the rest of the world.

FER presentation mentioned numbers around 1mill - is that the absolute max? When and where are they anticipating contracted time to be secured?
..
..
Discl: None. Watching.

At the moment they are sending the tests to Chicago by post to the synchrotron machine (xray as large as a football field). The MD has been spending a bit of time in Chicago because of this. But the tests can simply be posted there, and I have seen this mentioned in announcements (if you need a link I'll need more time).

My understanding is that one is being built in Melbourne, and there was talk of a dedicated beam for Fermiscan. Although I'm not sure how far this has advanced since this announcement. In any case, it is my understanding that there is not a problem posting off to the US for testing and results. I would need more time to read back for exact links to this too, but to my knowledge the MD seems satisfied by comments in the past of xray work being done o/s.

http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20070604/pdf/00726930.pdf

 

[grace]

My understanding is that one is being built in Melbourne, and there was talk of a dedicated beam for Fermiscan. Although I'm not sure how far this has advanced since this announcement. In any case, it is my understanding that there is not a problem posting off to the US for testing and results. I would need more time to read back for exact links to this too, but to my knowledge the MD seems satisfied by comments in the past of xray work being done o/s.

http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20070604/pdf/00726930.pdf

Here is an old presentation showing 1 million tests pa already secured. I remember some sort of payment going through to secure this - this could be a year ago........ I think the first 1 million tests will be done o/s, then I guess they are working on a dedicated beam......

The business

Fermiscan is commercialising a world-first, innovative test for the early detection of breast cancer using a simple, non-invasive screening method
• Scaleable business - significant economies as volumes grow
• Profitable business - EBITDA for 500,000 tests of AUD$ 61 million
• Huge global market - 100 million mammograms annually - in excess of 300 million women in South East Asia, Japan, Europe, USA, Australia
• Current synchrotron capacity enables more than 1 million tests per annum
• International licensing arrangements require minimal up front investment
• Commercial rollout in Australia & initial license territories by the end of 2007
• no further approvals required in Australia
• the Fermiscan breast cancer test will be launched as a “Pilot” in Australia in the second half of 2007
• Further clinical evaluation of prostate cancer, Alzheimer’s, other cancer and pathological states provides further opportunity

 

[grace]

Also, from that same presentation. I guess there should hopefully be some spare capacity in the country of source, and the new one in Melbourne. Hope this helps.

There are 40 synchrotrons located around the world

 

[grace]

I have read a little but may be missing something....

Even with time being contracted the cost will be susbstantial. Tests for a 2000 trial are focussing on the results but the cost as well as time per test will be crucial. Forget all the calculations - until you find out if FER can get time to handle the possible tests out of, say, Kyoto, without spinning off numbers for the rest of the world.

FER presentation mentioned numbers around 1mill - is that the absolute max? When and where are they anticipating contracted time to be secured?
..
..
Discl: None. Watching.

Also some info about services contracted out around the world. I think they have thought things through to my knowledge....

South East Asia

Avia Reed International Pte Ltd granted rights to market and sell the Fermiscan test in:

• Singapore (1.7 M target population),

• Hong Kong (2.5 M)

• Malaysia (6.2 M)

• Thailand (20.5M)

• Vietnam (22.6 M)

• Indonesia (61.2M)

The management of Avia Reed International have had extensive medical experience, including ownership and management of medical centres, and pathology and outpatient clinics in Singapore

 

[drasicjazz]

a while back (november) i had a chat with Greg West Chief Financial Officer & Company Secretary ...
you can find my post on page 3... anyway i didn't say when i asked him about the melbourne Synchrotron that .....the synchrotron melbourne would only be available for them somewhere in 2 years ( now 1.5 year) because of the particular beam that fermiscan needs
anyway he sad that sending the samples to Chicago was no problem what so ever ...

an other thing is that because of the trails they have been able to adjust and perfected the beam ( just my thoughts and i hope so...)
so they can now ask the question to use a paricular synchrotron more effective and use the time that they buy more effective

an other thing is that a synchrodron is only about 200mill
fermiscan could be able to build one in 5years....:
ok now i'm dreaming...

 

[grace]

and another thing is that a synchrotron is only about $200mill
fermiscan could be able to build one in 5years....:
ok now i'm dreaming...

I don't think it would be that far away! $100 mill profit for the first 1 million tests. Don't think it will take 5 yrs to get to $200 mill, but just my thoughts!

 

[morton_mains]

Thanks drasicjazz, grace.
Yes I saw the 1mill number in the presentation..but looking at the photo of synchrotron facility it was obvious that having a dedicated facility would be the single huge obstacle for FER (after trials!).

Also saw the ann. re "discussions" with Melbourne and surprised nothing happened since June 07? or that no further strategies have been announced. It was what triggered my comments.

Given that the company will be dealing with medical results I am unsure how far contracting out beam-time overseas will go to comply with the stringent requirements of ISO etc..

It makes sense if they build their own to have total control over quality control and logistics apsects. Yes, i'd imagine cost would be easily in 000 millions but would be easy to get funding as the revenue streams would be known and predictable over time.

Whats more it will probably stay in Aust. - all good for the pollies pushing the hitech message (assumes you get enough people trained to operate it?) - as the capex rather than opex would be the determinant at which each test will be charged.
Still interesting.

 

[drasicjazz]

grace i'm with you
but keep in mind that they will have to pay us some... dividends first...:
but it is an interesting thought don't you think
i wonder if they would consider this route
i mean if they gonna make such amount of millions each year (if things go right)
what will they do with theim?

 

[drasicjazz]

fer is looking good
here's why
*volume is starting to build up on buy side and gets smaller on sell side
*upcoming general meeting...probebly with an update on the
australian 2000 australian patient validation and 200 Singapore validation
*chartwise could be breaking out of yearlong downtrend

***high volume is most of the time a key factore of a breakout
unfortually volume remains low and could scrap my possivtive observations

thing to look for in the comming days

volume has to go up
macd (blue ) crossing the 0 line

 

[shaunm]

Go "FERmy" Go!
A pleasant surprise to day to see increased interest in our holdings.
If this momentum can keep going until the results come out (assuming they are A.O.K) we'll all be smiling.

 

[grace]

Go "FERmy" Go!
A pleasant surprise to day to see increased interest in our holdings.
If this momentum can keep going until the results come out (assuming they are A.O.K) we'll all be smiling.

These are so illiquid. Over 80% tied up in top 20. The other less than 20% will be holding tight. Over 50% of the 80% in escrow until October this year.

I'm hoping to buy some more after 1500 test result comes through (early May) as I figure it will take any speculative feel out of this one!

 

[drasicjazz]

something on the side...
is anyone going to the annual meeting in sydney?
i'm in melbourne so i don't think i will have the opportunity and maybe others want to be there but can't make it , in that case i was hoping that if somebody was going; he could give us a bit of a report? maybe tape it ?
any takers? or suggestions or questions we would like to pass on to the people who are going

if nothing comes out of this than that is fine but i think it would be nice to team up in a way

cheers

 

[gambler]

Fermiscan - Takeover Target??

Fermiscan's 2000 patient trial results should be completed very soon based on previous Company announcements. Despite the trial being behind schedule, all previous announcements relating to the actual results has been consistently very positive.

The stock price could get a huge spike if the final trial results are positive again. Considering Fermi's scientific breakthrough is a World First and involving a mainstream illness (Breast Cancer), it wouldn't be surprising if this is a takeover target by a large Pharmaceutical Company or Private Equity investor.

Any one agree or disagree?

 

[grace]

Re: Fermiscan - Takeover Target??

Fermiscan's 2000 patient trial results should be completed very soon based on previous Company announcements. Despite the trial being behind schedule, all previous announcements relating to the actual results has been consistently very positive.

The stock price could get a huge spike if the final trial results are positive again. Considering Fermi's scientific breakthrough is a World First and involving a mainstream illness (Breast Cancer), it wouldn't be surprising if this is a takeover target by a large Pharmaceutical Company or Private Equity investor.

Any one agree or disagree?

Certainly no takeover attempt until over 50% of the shares come out of escrow in October 2008. See my previous posts re: tightly held by top 20. Personally, hope we don't get taken out as I'm here for the long-run, and once we pass 2000 tests, there will be no stopping this one.

Would certainly appeciate others' opinions though!

 

[drasicjazz]

uuhh can't help it but seeing us back lining up to buy in the 70's disappoints me
i realy though we were going somewhere specially with the annual meeting in front of the door ( 9 may)
these last two days fer took a battering for no reason
even i'm use to fermiscans big swings i still can't find a way to like it

 

[gambler]

Can't understand why the share price has gone down again. The good mail is that a positive announcement is iminent, either before or at the AGM. I honestly expected at least some smaller speculators to try and buy in.

Btw, when the positive announcement does arrive I hope Fermi's PR person does a better job than they have over the past 12 months. Considering Fermi has a Global breakthrough technology I think the Company deserves a lot more press than it has got. I've seen small time Companies in IT and Mining get 10 times more coverage despite having far less than Fermi. The PR manager is not very good at all in my humble opinion.

In a Country which is very familar with cancer due to suffering high profile celebrities such as Kylie Minogue, Delta Goodrum, Olivia Newton-John and Belinda Emmitt, you would think it wouldn't be that hard to leverage the awareness.

 

[CranG]

Can't understand why the share price has gone down again. The good mail is that a positive announcement is iminent, either before or at the AGM. I honestly expected at least some smaller speculators to try and buy in.

Btw, when the positive announcement does arrive I hope Fermi's PR person does a better job than they have over the past 12 months. Considering Fermi has a Global breakthrough technology I think the Company deserves a lot more press than it has got. I've seen small time Companies in IT and Mining get 10 times more coverage despite having far less than Fermi. The PR manager is not very good at all in my humble opinion.

In a Country which is very familar with cancer due to suffering high profile celebrities such as Kylie Minogue, Delta Goodrum, Olivia Newton-John and Belinda Emmitt, you would think it wouldn't be that hard to leverage the awareness.

gambler,

I had an email exchange with DY last year (around the time of breast cancer week) about the lack of "hoopla" around this. He pretty much said that they weren't seeking attention prior to the finalisation of the test results. He also said that there would be plenty of press coverage once the validation test is complete (and successful). He also mentioned that they have strong relationships with the Breast Cancer Foundation and Helen Zorbas of the NBCC.

In a nutshell, things are in place for lots of press coverage once the results are out.

Cheers

 

[gambler]

Fermi SP continues to get hammered... Not sure why people are selling so low when the trial has been progressing well (albeit slowly). Hope some positive announcement comes out soon.

Any one got any positive news or insights?

 

[drasicjazz]

well now that grace entered fermiscan in the monthly stock competition
she will benefit from a low sp finisch today( last day of the month)
i'm sure she is behind this decline
also i been in the comp for the last 3 months with fer and always ended in the negative territory

but apart from that ... as also discussed on hot copper... no negetive news/input has been given to justify the decline in the sp

 

[grace]

well now that grace entered fermiscan in the monthly stock competition
she will benefit from a low sp finisch today( last day of the month)
i'm sure she is behind this decline
also i been in the comp for the last 3 months with fer and always ended in the negative territory

but apart from that ... as also discussed on hot copper... no negetive news/input has been given to justify the decline in the sp

Hi drasic, don't put too much faith in my stock tips....I haven't won one yet. However, we are coming to a "do or die" for little fermi. May/June will be very interesting times and I am quietly optimistic. After we hit 1500 tests, that is my next buying que. Would love to buy some more.....just need to free up some cash...

I'm hoping to beat you to this one in June too. You'll have to be fast! If I win 2 months in a row, I might share one with you....I'll see.