FER - Fermiscan Limited

[livid]

. The question is, how long will it take to get to 1 million tests?

If the test is used as a SCREENING tool for women under 40 (who do not undergo screening mammography due to high radiation dose), then surely 1 million per year in Oz would be easily surpassed. Of course, the government may takes its time providing funding, but with the high media exposure for breast cancer (pink ribbon day etc) they would probably be pressured to move swiftly. The fact that they have a worldwide patent means the sky is the limit for this. Just need the rest of that trial data

 

[grace]

If the test is used as a SCREENING tool for women under 40 (who do not undergo screening mammography due to high radiation dose), then surely 1 million per year in Oz would be easily surpassed.

I thought it was not used on women under 40 due to the fact that it is inaccurate because women under 40 have dense breast tissue (even though the radiation is an issue for all women having mammograms!).

I see the big market share being in women under 40!

I have emailed the company requesting their top 20 shareholder list.

 

[livid]

I thought it was not used on women under 40 due to the fact that it is inaccurate because women under 40 have dense breast tissue (even though the radiation is an issue for all women having mammograms!).

QUOTE]

That is also true, but the sensitivity of various organs (eg breasts, ovaries, thyroid) to radiation decreases with age, and so any screening tool which is non-invasive and does not involve ionising radiation bound to be a winner.

 

[grace]

I thought it was not used on women under 40 due to the fact that it is inaccurate because women under 40 have dense breast tissue (even though the radiation is an issue for all women having mammograms!).

QUOTE]

That is also true, but the sensitivity of various organs (eg breasts, ovaries, thyroid) to radiation decreases with age, and so any screening tool which is non-invasive and does not involve ionising radiation bound to be a winner.

That is a good bit of information. From a female perspective, if one has a choice, the no radiation option would be my first point of call (perhaps I'm a little biased though!).

 

[drasicjazz]

I went on a mad Fermiscan Google SCAN



fermiscan had woldwide; here and there newspaper articles about their technology
here are a few:
-- basicly they all say the same thing with a sceptical tone about the fals possitive... some with added info some not
most have SOURCE: International Journal of Cancer, February 15, 2008.

AUZ: 29 JAN 2008
http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=158&ContentID=56241

UK: 6 FEB 2008:star:
http://www.lifestyleextra.com/ShowS...dline=now_the_breast_cancer_test_through_hair

US: 6 FEB 2008
http://www.thaimed.us/2008/02/06/

UK: 7 FEB 2008
http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/34135/How-a-strand-of-hair-can-detect-breast-cancer

ITALY ??? 2008
http://www.simel.it/eng/newsVisualizzazione.asp?id_sez=3&newsID=1640

naked science 10 FEB 2008
http://www.thenakedscientists.com/HTML/content/news/news/1306/

Business 18 FEB 2008
http://www.businessweek.com/innovate/next/archives/2008/02/a_new_test_for.html

medic exchange 18 feb 2008
http://www.medicexchange.com/mall/d...changeUSA/_81675/3786/departments-contentview

NZ 19 FEB 2008
http://www.stuff.co.nz/4407045a7144.html

OTHER links
some comments on other forum
http://shaunstanert.newsvine.com/_n...breast-cancer-could-be-on-sale-within-months-

and a link to the clinical trials

have a brows trough this
http://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/results?spons="Fermiscan+Ltd"&spons_ex=Y


enjoy the reading-- perfect to fill the weekend

Grace any update on the top 20?

 

[grace]

drasicjazz
No, I haven't heard back re: top 20 list yet, but will post as soon as I hear.

You know, I think the false positives have been commented on......I thought that the Fermiscan test could detect earlier than other methods, and patients would have to be monitored to see if they in fact did develop breast cancer when they had a false positive (due to earlier detection by Fermiscan). This would not be known straight away, and patients with false positives would, I imagine, be on continual monitoring.

The other point to note, is that the Company is only aiming for a complimentary test ie to be used in conjuction with other tests (not a complete replacement). I think they will be able to obtain a fair market share (once 2000 trial accuracy is confirmed).

Does anyone know the cost of a mammogram to government? Fermiscan looking at $200/test from links by drasic ($100 of that is profit).

 

[livid]

drasicjazz


Does anyone know the cost of a mammogram to government? Fermiscan looking at $200/test from links by drasic ($100 of that is profit).

The schedule fee for mammography (both breasts) is $89.50, of which the government re-imburses 75%.

http://www9.health.gov.au/mbs/search.cfm?q=mammography&sopt=S

However, the provision of free screening services by the government to women 50+ may be greater than this per exam. Typically, many private imaging providers may charge a higher fee than $89.50 with the patient left to make up the difference (gap). Will the government be willing to provide screening to women less than 50 via the fermiscan test? You would have to think this is a distinct possibility given the high incidence of breast cancer and its devastating effects, Early detection will result in many lives saved. It is pleasing to be an investor in a company that may make this possible.

 

[drasicjazz]

Gee i looked everywhere to find an anwer to that
and could realy find out appart form free breastsceaning between 50 and 69 year of age

anyway i started to make a summery of the mammogram/mri
so see were fermiscan can slide in
feel free to update what i have so far
and we could ad all the fermiscan pos and neg issues
here we go..............................


MAMMOGRAM +
screening mammogram (posseble without dokter referral)FREE for woman without symptons
very good accuracy increasing with age spaciallyy above 50 very good
cheap (coverment funding)

MAMMOGRAM -
*Difficult to read
Glandular (lumpy) breasts, which are common in women under 30 years of age
obese people are more likly to recieve a false positive
Dense (muscular) breasts, common in pre-menopausal women
Previous breast surgery or radiation therapy
Breast implants
Movement of the breast during the procedure.

*Discomfort
compression of the breast ( could cause leaking/change of texture of the breast

*Radiation
minimal radiation exposior (equal to 3 months background radiation)
pregnent woman are not advised to be screened
atviced to wait 6 months after breastfeeding
*accuracy
Mammogram accuracy varies by experience radiologist
**False negatives
””False negatives occur when mammograms appear normal even though breast cancer is present
Overall, mammograms miss up to 20 percent of the breast cancers that are present at the time of screening.
False negatives occur more often in younger women than in older women because the dense breasts of younger women
make breast cancers more difficult to detect in mammograms.
As women age, their breasts usually become more fatty (and therefore less dense),
and breast cancers become easier to detect with screening mammograms.
**

SPECIALS
*Free mammogram every two years between 50 and 69 (overment funding)
Victims of breast cancer do not receive free mammograms after surgery

MRI -
* Costy $400-$600
http://www.theage.com.au/news/natio...-risk-of-cancer/2007/10/21/1192940905887.html

MRI +
* much better visual picture



feel free to add

all info summered here was taken from medical reports and news articals
i could and will if someone wants to review a remark but i didn't include them here to simplify the summery

cheers

 

[livid]

MRI -
* Costy $400-$600
http://www.theage.com.au/news/natio...-risk-of-cancer/2007/10/21/1192940905887.html

MRI +
* much better visual picture




cheers

MRI of the breast currently does NOT have any medicare re-imbursement regardless of clinical presentation or referrer status (currently specialists can refer MRIs for most regions of the body with medicare rebate). However, it is expected that a medicare rebate for breast MRI may be introduced soon but only for certain clinical indications. It is unlikely to ever be used as a screening investigation under medicare. The cost to government for breast MRI (between $300-400) as a screening tool would be prohibitive. It should be remebered also that NO test is perfect for breast cancer detection, but typically more than one investigation is used depending on a number of factors (eg age, previous findings, family history etc). I strongly feel that Fermiscan has a role to play along with these other investigations, not necessarily as a total replacement, but as a complimentary investigation, especially in younger women. Another point, men can also get breast cancer (though rare), and in fact by the time it is discovered it is usually too late. I would be interested to know if men will be used at any stage in trials, or if they willl be targeted once the test is available.

 

[drasicjazz]

hi all i just discoverd (via asx) that fer's final year ann/ report on the 28 of feb isn't visable on the etrade website, not that i can see anything new in it but i still need to read it true. still i'm a bit dissapointed about this...
anyone else out there with this issue... and what to do about it?

 

[drasicjazz]

i had an other call to etrade today
they still haven't updated their website info on fermiscan
apart from that it looks like more waiting
maybe april will bring us an update.. and then in may there is the agm

 

[drasicjazz]

there you have it
the top 20 is still holding over 80% --all and this in the just released annual report. Comments anyone? ...

 

[shaunm]

Well hasn't old "FERmy" taken quite a hammering today?
I did not expect this to be the case on such a strong day overall for the market.
Does someone know something that we don't, or is it just.......??

 

[VViCKiD]

volume was quite low though ... so that does not really mean much... if u wanted you coulda hit the ask for 1 unit @ 0.79 so there won't be any movement..

 

[drasicjazz]

nothing alarming ... just don't look at you're todays loss...
look at the volume... or trades... i mean 4 trades or 3 people sold down
and hup fermiscan lost 8% ... so what; no big deal
the shares are traded my opinion and people are just hanging back and waiting for the next upcoming results
offcourse you will always have people dropping out for unknown reasons
like needing cash or sick of waiting and go and go trying somewhare else

but most of us are in for the results
and appart from the shareholders at the miniut there is not a lot of advertisment ( news; updates) to invite new shareholders
so only the (old) shareholders are picking up (the few cheap) shares

look think this way ... because the price is so low...
how many shareholders are in the red (including me)
and who is selling ??... the odd one

but hey on a good day like today you want to see fer move right...
i understand
the thing is the big jumps in the market at the miniut are not in fermiscan
there are lot more opportunities to make a quick buck elsewere on days like today

my thoughts only

dyor
drasic....................;jazz

 

[shaunm]

Cheers guys. Puts in all in a bit of perspective. Things don't always go the way you expect, so I'll just ride it through like the rest. Looking forward to the results and positive movement.

 

[grace]

Many good bits of info in the Annual Report. 1500 tests taken, with all 2000 to be completed by June 2008. I'm excited about the year for Fermiscan.

Market cap....less than $60 mill, with more than $20 mill in kitty. Very illiquid and tightly held....

This analysis showed that earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBIT) for a volume of one million tests in a full operational year, including 500,000 tests sold by licensees, would be approximately $103 million.

For 500,000 Fermiscan tests, the analysis showed EBIT of $61 million and break-even was achieved at 80,000 tests annually.

International development
We have continued to further our commercial development strategy in
Australia and internationally. Fermiscan owns the technology on which the
Fermiscan test is based, and a family of international patents protects the
company’s intellectual property.

South East Asia
A clinical trial of the Fermiscan test commenced in January 2008 with the
support of KK Breast Centre of the KK Women’s and Children’s Hospital,
Singapore’s largest medical facility providing specialist care for women
and children. The potential market for the test in Singapore is estimated to
exceed 1.7 million people.
Licences to market the Fermiscan test have been granted in six Asian
countries, including Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand
and Vietnam. The combined potential market in these countries is an
estimated 11.5 million people.
Japan
In Japan, we plan a limited clinical trial, following completion of an independent feasibility study which concluded the Fermiscan test would be a strong complement to existing screening methods for breast cancer.
Japan is a significant market, with 37 million women aged over 40 years.
Use of mammography is expected to increase as Japanese health
authorities increase promotion of breast cancer awareness. Currently
14 million mammograms are performed each year, which is a low
proportion of the eligible population compared to Western countries.
We are preparing a detailed path of regulatory approval and trials to enter
this market which is expected to take two years.

The Japanese study estimated a conservative market potential of the
Fermiscan Test at an initial 541,000 tests in 2010, growing to 2.9 million
tests in 2015. The potential financial benefit to Fermiscan from the
Japanese market alone is substantial.

USA
In the USA, we are evaluating our ability to seek FDA fast track status to accelerate regulatory approval. This may be granted where the FDA believes there is an unmet medical need or low risk to patients.

Europe
Recently, the company was granted a new patent in Europe, which includes
breast cancer, prostate cancer and Alzheimer’s disease. This patent
extends Fermiscan’s patent protection into 19 countries in Europe.

Extending application of Fermiscan’s technology
There is significant potential to adapt this non-invasive test for other
diseases, and we continue to explore these opportunities. Currently, the
company is preparing a trial designed to validate if the presence of prostate
cancer can be detected through x-ray diffraction of hair.

 

[grace]

Also below, some info on how the clinical trials are going. Very accurate in relation to other tests, and THE ONLY test that is accurate for UNDER 40's women (that's me and many others!).

Of note is only 4 weeks of new hair growth required (I previously estimated 6 weeks so this is even better). Women will not have any problem with this in relation to dying their hair. Not many women dye their hair less than 4 weeks apart or foils etc....

Clinical trials

The company began an Australian 2000-patient trial to validate its test in
2007 with the support of major Australian radiology and diagnostic groups.
Results from the trial compare the effectiveness of the Fermiscan test with
screening results from mammogram and ultrasound, and any subsequent
biopsy and pathology results.

We are pleased that results so far have confirmed a high degree of accuracy
for the Fermiscan test (80%) which compares favourably with published
studies for the accuracy of mammography.

To date, analysis of 808 patients has shown accuracy of the Fermiscan
test to be approximately 80 per cent. The test correctly identified 77 per
cent of women confirmed to be breast cancer negative by mammography
and ultrasound, and 82.3 per cent of women diagnosed as breast cancer
positive by mammography and biopsy were identified by the Fermiscan test.

In 91 per cent of cases where women with unclear mammography results
had been given a biopsy, the Fermiscan test correctly identified that they did
not have breast cancer. This initial result suggests that the potential for the
use of the Fermiscan test, together with mammography, could reduce the
need for some unnecessary biopsies.

Completion of the trial was delayed as, despite strict procedures for hair collection, many samples were damaged by treatments such as dyes, perms and chemical straightening; or lacked the required minimum of four weeks of untreated new hair growth.

We have improved systems and processes for hair collection, screening for treatments, loading and analysis systems at the synchrotron and enhanced numerous other aspects of our operations. More than 1500 samples of women’s hair have been collected from participants in the trial, and completion is expected in the first half of 2008.

 

[drasicjazz]

Gee up 9% today... something must be up...

just joking guys
but it illustrate the power of a single buy or sell

the thing that i start to notise is that there is some more buying volume than say... a week a go
and the selling part is starting to look rather thin

time for a bit of upwards movement but than again so is the overall market
have a look at this 3 months overlay chart from FER and the XAO


similar... don't you think...
so without real new info this is the way we are gonna travel
nothing to do with the internal of fermiscan

 

[morton_mains]

I have read a little but may be missing something....
With all the blue sky "tests" being calculated aren't people forgetting that it is fundamental to FER that it has access to considerable dedicated time on a synchrotron (i imagine building one wouldn't make it past back of envelope cost calc.s).

I don't see where this has been ticked off - can someone answer?

Even with time being contracted the cost will be susbstantial. Tests for a 2000 trial are focussing on the results but the cost as well as time per test will be crucial. Forget all the calculations - until you find out if FER can get time to handle the possible tests out of, say, Kyoto, without spinning off numbers for the rest of the world.

FER presentation mentioned numbers around 1mill - is that the absolute max? When and where are they anticipating contracted time to be secured?
..
..
Discl: None. Watching.