FAR - FAR Limited

[IGO4IT]

Re: FAR - First Australian Resources

I take my hat off to you. Your understanding of market shift is much better than mine. Today we are at .145 with no bottom defined. I can't see why this has happened, but it has. The cap raising at .13 has had an effect possibly, but the good news has had little positive push today. What is the matter out there. The average sell was 50K/person which means to me the punters are frightened again and decided today was jump off day. Go figure..we have 3 beautiful wells coming commercial over the next month and these punters think they have a better place for their hard earned. What are your thoughts Porper I'm listening.

coffee

Coffee,

You're talking about FAR as if its a special drop case while all other resouces are going up like crazy.

The market is in correction (or something else that destroys prices of all resources), when it finishes then we can try to isolate each company as a case by itself.

Right now, all are resources are almost half what they were few weeks back & the hit came on the big blue chips before the smalls.

Why FAR is falling? can you tell me why others are falling?

cheers,

 

[Matt123]

Re: FAR - First Australian Resources

The price has rebounded slightly, but not as much as I anticipated. Given a favourable market, the price should head back to the 18c it was before the drop, perhaps more. Any news that comes out of FAR about drilling always seems to be good, and there will hopefully be some soon

 

[coffee]

Re: FAR - First Australian Resources

I'm tempted to top up this week knowing there is going to be an ann out shortly. If it comes out prior to yr, end I'll jump on but if there is no news by 2PM June 30th I think you will see a few mill traded down by those that bought in the 20's on the second week of May. That might be worth sitting close to the monitor that day to pick up some at 12 cents.

coffee

 

[coffee]

Re: FAR - First Australian Resources

I'm tempted to top up this week knowing there is going to be an ann out shortly. If it comes out prior to yr, end I'll jump on but if there is no news by 2PM June 30th I think you will see a few mill traded down by those that bought in the 20's on the second week of May. That might be worth sitting close to the monitor that day to pick up some at 12 cents.

coffee

Well I got in at 14 cents, happy with that. Now I anticipate a 20 cent move by the end of next week. Still have good reason to see FAR reach 45 -50 cents before Christmas. The BG is going to prove to be very lucrative for FAR even at 2 1/2%. With Gas prices in Canada now going into the winter shortly we will see an all time high. Kakwa is our footprint into the Canadian marketplace. Eagle ......in the background now, flick it. Apart from causing a whole lot of stress and cost blowouts I believe over a short period of time it will pay for itself once we see the oil flows. ie 500 - 800 bopd. It's there.

In Summary: Anyone getting on now will have a bit of fun..

Coffee

 

[doctorj]

Re: FAR - First Australian Resources

According to the VPE presentation today, Eagle is still going ahead this August, with an expectation of Eagle holding 44Mill bboe (p10). A bit misleading, as they state it as a p10 "target". Not sure what that's meant to mean, its either p10 or not, but anyway - time to move on.

Yes Eagle has caused all manner of problems and I for one will be suprised to ever see FAR make a buck from it, but I believe the market has already discounted FAR heavily for this and should the lower Gatchell produce from the 72m behind casing and 105m open hole (gross pay, already logged) at the expected rate, its worth something in the order of ~30cps (44Mill bboe, AUD$20/boe in ground value). In terms of risk/reward, there's not much froth built in for Eagle, but should the operator get their act together there's significant reward for all participants.

The real interest for me lies in the Beibu Gulf discovery. The exploration well found 80.5m of net oil pay and flowed at 5,750 bbls a day over a 2 week test.

From ROC's quarterly report today:

Appraisal of the Wei 6-12S-1 continued with the first sidetrack well, Wei 6-12S-1a, reaching a Total Depth of 2,530 mBRT. Initial analysis indicated that the five cores cut display similar reservoir quality to the discovery well. A second sidetrack well, Wei 6-12S-1b, commenced drilling on 13 July. The well was designed to intersect all the reservoir intervals seen in the upper part of the original discovery well downdip from that well. On 31 July, the second sidetrack well had reached a revised Total Depth of 2,950 mBRT and logging was underway. Preliminary appraisal results appear to range from as expected to somewhat encouraging.

A few things to note, they actually continued drilling a long way below planned target depth in order to intersect the entirity of each of the three intervals intersected in the current well. Also, it was described as "encouraging", despite ROC's typical conversative line.

Drilling further than planned means one of two things - either they didn't find what they expected and drilled a little deeper to make sure or they had to drill deeper than planned to measure the extent of the downdip to update reserve estimates. You be the judge.

Either way, at the initially announced 55Mill bbl discovery @ 5% WI to FAR, that's still 12cps (using the same assumptions as above).

Exciting times ahead for FAR, lets see if that excitement bares fruit this time.

 

[yogi-in-oz]

FAR - First Australian



Hi folks,

FAR ..... as requested, here's some astroanalysis,
revealing some key dates ahead, with August 2006
looking quite a positive month .....

August 2006 ..... mostly positive:

11-14082006 ..... positive spotlight on FAR

22-23082006 ..... expecting positive news initially,
but a negative cycle on 23082006
may spoil the party.

29082006 ..... positive time cycle here ... finances???

-----

September 2006 ..... mostly negative:

07092006 ..... negative news here???

10-18092006 ..... though there's underlying positive
sentiment, we will likely see the price
trade flat-to-down, during this time.


12092006 ..... negative spotlight on FAR

22092006 ..... negative financials???

25092006 ..... minor and positive news expected.

-----

October 2006 ..... mostly minor and positive:

04-09102006 ..... 2 cycles may trigger aggressive rally.

13102006 ..... minor and positive time cycle here.

16102006 ..... minor and positive ... finances???

18102006 ..... minor

-----

November 2006 ..... all minor cycles:

07112006 ..... minor news???

09112006 ..... minor

13112006 ..... minor

21112006 ..... minor

-----

December 2006 ..... very positive, before December solstice.

01-04122006 ..... positive and finance-related???

12122006 ..... spotlight on FAR

21122006 ..... significant news???

21-29122006 ..... some underlying negativity here,
with some longer-term plans likely to come into focus??

27122006 ..... minor

-----

January 2007:

02012007 ..... short, sharp rally ???

-----

Looking further out, March-June 2007 will likely be a
roller-coaster ride for FAR.

Expecting some significant and negative news, around
September 2007 equinox, then some significant and
positive news, near the end of October 2007.

So in summary, we can expect some good trading
opportunities in FAR, starting this month ..... !~!

happy trading

yogi

 

[yogi-in-oz]

Re: FAR - First Australian Resources



Hi folks,

FAR ..... as posted above on 02082006, we will be
alert for some positive news/moves early this week,
probably on Monday 14082006 .....

Engulfing low last Friday, with good supporting volume
is a good sign going into this week, too ..... maybe
traders are already anticipating some good news,
out of the current GOM well ... ???

happy days

yogi

 

[coffee]

Re: FAR - First Australian Resources

Yogi

Pack your bags :nuts:

Coffee

 

[coffee]

Re: FAR - First Australian Resources

lets hope the correction is over . And we can start seeing the Sun. Looks good , Wish I had some more $ to put down. Although I have lots of $$$$ on this one.

 

[stiger]

Re: FAR - First Australian Resources

You have to have the patience of a Saint with this co .Cheers Dyor.

 

[coffee]

Re: FAR - First Australian Resources

The Gods say patience is rewarded Cheers C

 

[stiger]

Re: FAR - First Australian Resources

The Gods say patience is rewarded Cheers C

I'll say ann released on london xe under code EME [courtesy rice01 hc] Dyor .Cheers.

 

[doctorj]

Re: FAR - First Australian Resources

I'm not sure what you mean exactly.

Empyrean did release an announcement, but aside from confirmation that a rig arrived as scheduled, there's no new information in it.

FAR is interesting. They've known about the oil at eagle for some time now and that's not helped the SP. Also, the sp is now 50% off the highs when the Beibu discovery was announced.

The potential impact of Eagle on FAR is well documented - holders have been looking at it for some time. Look further back in this thread for more information. Beibu is incredibly interesting - latest tentative comments from the JV suggest 60-100mmbo in place. If they can recover at anything like what's happening from adjacent fields, they're looking at up to 60% recoverability.

The monkey on FAR's back is cash flow. The market is punishing oilers that don't have it at the moment on the basis that raising capital will increase in difficulty going forward. While FAR is nicely cashed up at the moment, it will only stay that way until dec/jan when they have to pay the remaining for the 3d seismic off Senegal. Production from Eagle could provide the impotus for a rerating - but as I've said, people, including myself, have been saying that for well over a year.

 

[stiger]

Re: FAR - First Australian Resources

They released a fair bit of info today .It takes some sifting through though.Cheers.Dyor

 

[doctorj]

Re: FAR - First Australian Resources

Good to see some activity at Lake Long and West Andrews and more at WR and Kakwa.

There's also a completely unsubstantiated rumour flying around that EGO might spud EP104 in the next month.

It's also good to see that VicPet got their act together and got an announcement out. Would have preferred to see it at open however.

 

[Matt123]

Re: FAR - First Australian Resources

Finally some movement! Could be the start of a new uptrend back into the midteens, possibly high teens if good news follows.

 

[constable]

Re: FAR - First Australian Resources

Finally some movement! Could be the start of a new uptrend back into the midteens, possibly high teens if good news follows.

Even now ,6 months later you still wouldnt be 100% sure of it doing anything.
However Citigroup have picked up 5.3% of the stock ( ann yesterday) and it looks to be having some impact on the sp up to 15c. Graph has been trending upwards since late march and could be breaking out of a period of consolidation.

 

[rocka1]

Re: FAR - First Australian Resources

I've just noticed volume has hit almost 8 mil price has gone to .16 I've jumped on hopefully for a ride up in my opinion DYOR Rocka

 

[rocka1]

Re: FAR - First Australian Resources

Does anyone have any info on why FAR's volume was over 12 million today? It is hovering around the .15 mark and volume has been picking up for 5 straight days.

 

[doctorj]

Re: FAR - First Australian Resources

You'll have to forgive the length of this post (Edit: I'm going to split them up on second thought). Amongst all the rambling, I hope you manage to learn something. Much of the Tullow-research noted in this post was completed by a chap named Barry, so to you (I'm sure you read this), thanks.

First of all, you'll see on the attached chart the interest kicked in on Friday, followed by an aftermarket 603 (substantial holder) notice released by an english law firm called Baker and McKenzie. The announcement specifies the shares are owned by an english fund called evolution and held by Merrill Lynch.

This spurred a lot of interest on Monday (nearly 2x the 200d average volume) for a couple of reasons. 1) It is the first substantial holder in FAR and 2) the purchase history provided in the form shows that the firm has been purchasing aggressively for a number of months. Subsequent analysis of the course of sales suggests that on some days they accounted for >80% of the daily volume.

Some time on Monday afternoon, another substantial shareholder announcement was made - this time by Citibank. The holder was announced to be Citicorp nominees. Tuesday was exciting again, with a break of resistance and 2.5x the long term average volume, on face value, because of a second substantial holder in the space of a couple of days.

This is where it gets a little weird and fact begins to blur into suspicion.

Closer inspection of the substantial holder notice revealed they were for exactly the same number of shares. It's unlikely that two different owners of shares both became substantial holders of shares within days, so why two notices, from two different parties showing the same shares owned by two different parties?

Calls to Citi/ML revealed they were for the same stake and they had received a legal opinion that they should re-release the 603 and Baker McKenzie made a mistake. So what is Baker McKenzie's role? Why does someone want to obscure the ownership of the stake? Why are both Citi and ML involved?

Stay tuned...