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FAR - FAR Limited

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Re: FAR - First Australian Resources

Further FAR question
in todays news FAR say the Beibu block is potentially 1km square with approx 100metres of oil

this is my first attempt at this type of calculation (usually i tend to buy and sell on intuition) so please feel free to point out any discrepancies in teh calculaltions

approx barrel size 1x1x1.5m

approx field size 1000 x 1000 x 100

volume of barrel = 1.5m cube
field 1x10^8mcube

number of barrels in field = 1x10^8 / 1.5 = 66.6million

at 5% Fars div 3.33million barrels
or @65$ /barrel 216 million dollars

with 400million share this is therefore worth 54c / share
this seems a little to good to be true

i would be interested as to how others calculate value in this sort of instance
 
Re: FAR - First Australian Resources


Oil in production is worth $12 - $20/barrel ON SITE depending on where you're digging & availabity of transportation & many variables etc....

you're calcuation is ok but you assumed barrel price too high.

the right calcuation of what its worth is 10c -12c/share.

as usual, I could be wrong, so none of posts could be taken as an indication to buy or sell & I hold shares in FAR.
 
Re: FAR - First Australian Resources


Hmmm...tricky question, but IMHO those who are buying now (buyers after last trading halt) had bought with news of placement being in place & also that managment is in favour of the placement.

SP as we all seen had taken off & gone so high while CONSIDERING the info of placement, so logically we would say that everyone is currently paying while knowing & expecting the placement to happen!

There is a problem.....the placement doesn't go thru until GM has the voting early June & it passes thru, so some of those who are buying now COULD be hoping for a rejection of the placement voted by shareholder, may be for it being too cheap at 13c/share or for whatever reason, but most likely everyone is now expecting the placement to take place as market reaction was very good to it.

One other thing, the placement may come in a time when market is not in a good mode, which happens sometimes & it could react negatively but even if that happens I don't think it will have a very big effect as in case of any dip there will be others waiting for buy on a bargain price, I'm actually in favour of a no reaction result as I think personally that current price had already factored the news of the placement in it.

cheers,
 
Re: FAR - First Australian Resources

FAr, I hope you guys held your FAr if you did you should be making out like Bandits at .235 cents today....with more to come imho.
 
Re: FAR - First Australian Resources

Bionic,

Try these calulations 1000x1000x100x6.2xAUD$36x2.5%x25%

These being the size of block, there are 6.289 barrels per cubic metre, say an in ground value of 40% of oil price, as generally used for inground value, (although US$20 is often used) converted to AUD, Far's share is 2.5% after Chinese take up their share and say they extract 25% of the field.

AUD$141,152,400 to FAR divided by 424 million shares = 33 cents per share. This is of course if the field covers the whole of the 1sq km of the block but then again it could be larger or smaller. So be conservative and say 50% of this then this becomes 16.5 cents per share. I believe that I read somewhere that official estimates put a find at between 6 and 10 cents per share. I don't believe that they thought that they would have a find as large as this. Anyway no matter what we value it at the market will decide in the end.

Holding FAR and out to buy more in the morning. Go FAR go!
 
Re: FAR - First Australian Resources


Hi Bionic,

I'll be wishing that your calculations are accurate , as you said what market is willing to pay is more important that what is the actual value of it.

......but i still think that your AUD$36/barrel is a bit rich

cheers,
 
Re: FAR - First Australian Resources

IGO4IT,

I looked at an Aegis report for inground valuations. They say that a conservative in ground value of US$15 bbl or typically 40% of current oil price with an allowance for any price spike. So say we go for a conservative AUD$20 bbl then that equates to $0.18 per share. I would still be happy with that
 
Re: FAR - First Australian Resources


I think you're in the right track but how much EXACTLY will the market pay for it & when? this the question.

we had a trifecta with all 3 projects coming to action at same time, Eagle sounds like more trouble & this is my only worry at the moment...because I can't predict how market will react to its failure in case of a failure (mentioning that its very unlikely & we should only be waiting for flow rates NOT that we're expecting to have a dry hole!!)

so market paid imo for the average price for all 3 projects we have & any extra-ordinary performance from any of these projects could be a real breakout.

there should be an ann coming on Monday (Eagle related) & another should be on Friday (I think Beibu related), so we'll have a lot of fun next week

cheers,
 
Re: FAR - First Australian Resources

Get with it .She is gonna BLOW.!!!!
 
Re: FAR - First Australian Resources

I hope you're right. ALthough the way the market it, it will still show red!! Go FAR
 
Re: FAR - First Australian Resources

Hello Farites,

We have come a long way since WR and Eagle as per the last post. We have a new FAR with a potential of a 50 cent SP in the next 8 months.

Cheers

Coffee
 
Re: FAR - First Australian Resources

coffee said:
Hello Farites,

We have come a long way since WR and Eagle as per the last post. We have a new FAR with a potential of a 50 cent SP in the next 8 months.

Cheers

Coffee
Click to expand...

I'd be very interested to know how you have calculated the 0.50 price in the 8 month time span.

If you could post your technical or fundamental analysis that would be great.
 
Re: FAR - First Australian Resources

Porper,

I am being conservative with my 50 cent SP in 8 months.

see:

http://www.far.com.au/files/research/Hartleys Research apr 2006.pdf

This report, I believe to be close to the mark and IMHO believe that FAR will be seen as a completely new entity in the market place apres June 9th. Once we have the Canadian and the China wells behind us, the platform for this new company image will be in place for a new type of investor that will be playing for big money, as opposed to the 10 - 15% profit takers we have been seeing in FAR over the last couple of years. I have invested heavily in this Company over the last 1 1/2 years and am very pleased with the management and forsight that ME has pulled off in the last few months. I hope I have answered your question with the Hartleys document. I have not been able to find another source.

Cheers
Coffee
 
Re: FAR - First Australian Resources

Farites,

A quiet day on the FAR front

coffee
 
Re: FAR - First Australian Resources

coffee said:
Farites,

A quiet day on the FAR front

coffee
Click to expand...


I had these and sold out when the correction started, but they are on my watchlist still.

Thing I don't like is the fact that there is a gap there and I am not convinced that it is a breakaway either.Looks like it has a chance of getting filled to me.
 
Re: FAR - First Australian Resources


Porper,

fundementally, FAR has 3 big events coming up from Kakwa & Beibu & of course the same old EAGLE.

believe it or not, they're lucky to get all 3 of them happening at the same time this week or early next week, reasonably we should expect news from at least 1 this week.

I believe its a breakaway gap & could be filled as 90% of gaps I seen regardless of what they are get filled but I don't think it will be filled any time in the short term. FAR has too many fundemental events on the short term that they will always find something to be exicted about! may be in few months time when it gets slower then some wil get bored & take their profits away.

cheers,
 
Re: FAR - First Australian Resources

Farites,

I see Eagle is about to begin its testing with the completion rig in 10 days, June 11-12th. At last....

Kakwa will no doubt have an ann out end of next week and China close behind. If we do as expected here Farites we'll be sitting on a solid 25 - 30 cent SP. I believe from what I'm seeing the SP has factored in the dilution of the 95-100M shares @ .13.

The market is content with the 25% increase and the The New Sophisticated Investors from overseas. I know they will be happy.

Cheers
coffee
 
Re: FAR - First Australian Resources



Well, here is a chart for those interested.Very low volume at the moment indicating to me that we won't have an announcement in the near future.

A break of the triangle with volume would probably persuade me to jump on for a short term trade, otherwise I will leave well alone.In this market no news is bad news.
 

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Re: FAR - First Australian Resources



I take my hat off to you. Your understanding of market shift is much better than mine. Today we are at .145 with no bottom defined. I can't see why this has happened, but it has. The cap raising at .13 has had an effect possibly, but the good news has had little positive push today. What is the matter out there. The average sell was 50K/person which means to me the punters are frightened again and decided today was jump off day. Go figure..we have 3 beautiful wells coming commercial over the next month and these punters think they have a better place for their hard earned. What are your thoughts Porper I'm listening.

coffee
 
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