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Stock involved in North Sea with USA independent oiler Enterprise. Key analysts now pushing it to advance with the commencement of drilling in a couple of months +
EXR - Elixir Energy
- Thread starter Bonk
- Start date
Good rise last session. They are nearing target depth on their big drill, the Jaguar prospect. If they get commercial flow on this drill its massive for Elixir.
Reading the broker reports on their website, Jaguar can mean dollars upwards.
http://www.elixirpetroleum.com/
Jaguar well was spudded around 30 days ago, so news in 10 to 20 days time.
Reading the broker reports on their website, Jaguar can mean dollars upwards.
http://www.elixirpetroleum.com/
Jaguar well was spudded around 30 days ago, so news in 10 to 20 days time.
Couple of posts from an oil enthusiast (Ed), his views and only independent views, not meant as investment advice.
"Firstly,
What struck me with ELP was the fact that on a $15m North Sea well they are getting free carried for 32.5%. That's a hell of a free carry by many a standard. They are paying out 7.5% of this well, a mere $1.1m usd. The downside in financial terms isn't that great they have at least $8m usd in the kitty. The upsuide on a 400mmbbls is stratospheric (north sea light has an undeveloped value of $13bbl in the ground)
Jaguar is a better play for me than Leopard or Panther, some in the broker note sugest that Leopard is a bit safer. Most of tme north sea oil finds are in the Brent, Piper or Forties sandstone layers (all of the notable ones have Nelson, Brent, Forties etc). We are well positioned in Jaguar on a north sea oil fairway running from south to slightly north west. Most of the major defined structural closures have been appraised in the NS, but it has been suggested that there are a number of signifncant strat traps still to be encountered. The search for the higher risk strat traps has really only just begun with Buzzard and Oilexco's smaller Brenda field. I got into the appraisal of the Brenda strat trap purely on their seismic shots. They had rund AVO analysis and 4D depth migration and I liked the look of what they had.
http://www.og.dti.gov.uk/information/bb_updates/maps/Q211.pdf
If you look at the above PDF you will see that there have been successful wells on 4 sides of Jaguar. Its a strat trap there isn't four way closure, its on an oil migratory pathway (oil fairway) in the NS. Those 2 single wells probably have a fault line (probably not continuous) likely to have been oil structures to have been deemed too small at the time. Brenda one one such, abandoned by connoco, and turned OIL from a £30m market cap to ober £200m (luckily I was in there early too). The chances of oil as a result of having 2 large fields to the west and south and 2 positive wells to the north and east is good. This is still a high risk expo well, but the norwegians like the seismic enough to want to pay 92.5% ($14m usd) to gain 60%. A very good start. I'll get on to the seismic in the next post.
Regards,
Ed. "
"Firstly,
What struck me with ELP was the fact that on a $15m North Sea well they are getting free carried for 32.5%. That's a hell of a free carry by many a standard. They are paying out 7.5% of this well, a mere $1.1m usd. The downside in financial terms isn't that great they have at least $8m usd in the kitty. The upsuide on a 400mmbbls is stratospheric (north sea light has an undeveloped value of $13bbl in the ground)
Jaguar is a better play for me than Leopard or Panther, some in the broker note sugest that Leopard is a bit safer. Most of tme north sea oil finds are in the Brent, Piper or Forties sandstone layers (all of the notable ones have Nelson, Brent, Forties etc). We are well positioned in Jaguar on a north sea oil fairway running from south to slightly north west. Most of the major defined structural closures have been appraised in the NS, but it has been suggested that there are a number of signifncant strat traps still to be encountered. The search for the higher risk strat traps has really only just begun with Buzzard and Oilexco's smaller Brenda field. I got into the appraisal of the Brenda strat trap purely on their seismic shots. They had rund AVO analysis and 4D depth migration and I liked the look of what they had.
http://www.og.dti.gov.uk/information/bb_updates/maps/Q211.pdf
If you look at the above PDF you will see that there have been successful wells on 4 sides of Jaguar. Its a strat trap there isn't four way closure, its on an oil migratory pathway (oil fairway) in the NS. Those 2 single wells probably have a fault line (probably not continuous) likely to have been oil structures to have been deemed too small at the time. Brenda one one such, abandoned by connoco, and turned OIL from a £30m market cap to ober £200m (luckily I was in there early too). The chances of oil as a result of having 2 large fields to the west and south and 2 positive wells to the north and east is good. This is still a high risk expo well, but the norwegians like the seismic enough to want to pay 92.5% ($14m usd) to gain 60%. A very good start. I'll get on to the seismic in the next post.
Regards,
Ed. "
Another one from Ed
"Now that you have the ambrian rearch report at hand:
http://www.elixirpetroleum.com/assets/30/0004_Ambrian Elixir 4Q 2005.pdf
The first thing to notice is the seismic crossection of Jaguar with clear directional faulting. It looks like the Brent layer has been pushed one on top of the other, in effect giving two shots or double the thickness of Brent sandstone. We don't have a scale but it must be of sigificant thickness to have been given a potential of up to 450mmbbls. There are clearly multiple horizons to be targeted in the Brent layers here.
If you look at the simplified seismic model (and remember the Norwegian's got the full seismic data not just these snap shots) you see the over lying kimmeridge oil shale present in all of the surround wells, overlying the upper jurassic and brent sandstone layers. The kimmeridge is clearly the source rock in the other wells, its has been faulted into a higher position in this well. All of the other wells in the area have the same overlying shale and the Brent sandstone oil reservoir. I'm hopeful of the potential of the Brent layer in this well, with the Upper Jurassic as an unknown.
There was a doubt over the porosity in the Brend and upper Jurassic layers, look at the snap shot of the acoustic impedance analysis. The red areas will be those of highest porosity. It is clear that there are areas of high porosity in that small snap shot, interesected by non-porous (shale and siltstone) layers. From what I've seen there is a good posibility of multiple sandstone layers divided by oil shale.
While this is a high risk expo well, there is nothing certain especially with strat traped oil, they've limited their risk by:
Advanced seismic, typical of high cost north sea drilling. Oil on four sides of this strat trap (separated off by faulting). A clearly identified Shale and sandstone layer corresponding with the local oil wells. A large strat trap lying on one of the most oil prolific fairways of the north sea, that have all produced from the same sanstone layer (Brent). The buzzard field not much more than a stones throw away (clearly good exploration potential in the area). Norwegian's that are so impressed by the full data that they want in and will pay 92.5% of the costs of this well.
Not for widows nor orphans, but from what I've seen initially I'm happy to be here with a decent amount of my cash. With a tiny cap and only small financial exposure to this well ELP looks like an attractive risk reward scenario. Downside $1.1m approximately down the loo, upside a significant oil pay in the brent sandstone. You pays your money and you takes your chances. All imo, DYOR etc etc.
Regards,
Ed. "
"Now that you have the ambrian rearch report at hand:
http://www.elixirpetroleum.com/assets/30/0004_Ambrian Elixir 4Q 2005.pdf
The first thing to notice is the seismic crossection of Jaguar with clear directional faulting. It looks like the Brent layer has been pushed one on top of the other, in effect giving two shots or double the thickness of Brent sandstone. We don't have a scale but it must be of sigificant thickness to have been given a potential of up to 450mmbbls. There are clearly multiple horizons to be targeted in the Brent layers here.
If you look at the simplified seismic model (and remember the Norwegian's got the full seismic data not just these snap shots) you see the over lying kimmeridge oil shale present in all of the surround wells, overlying the upper jurassic and brent sandstone layers. The kimmeridge is clearly the source rock in the other wells, its has been faulted into a higher position in this well. All of the other wells in the area have the same overlying shale and the Brent sandstone oil reservoir. I'm hopeful of the potential of the Brent layer in this well, with the Upper Jurassic as an unknown.
There was a doubt over the porosity in the Brend and upper Jurassic layers, look at the snap shot of the acoustic impedance analysis. The red areas will be those of highest porosity. It is clear that there are areas of high porosity in that small snap shot, interesected by non-porous (shale and siltstone) layers. From what I've seen there is a good posibility of multiple sandstone layers divided by oil shale.
While this is a high risk expo well, there is nothing certain especially with strat traped oil, they've limited their risk by:
Advanced seismic, typical of high cost north sea drilling. Oil on four sides of this strat trap (separated off by faulting). A clearly identified Shale and sandstone layer corresponding with the local oil wells. A large strat trap lying on one of the most oil prolific fairways of the north sea, that have all produced from the same sanstone layer (Brent). The buzzard field not much more than a stones throw away (clearly good exploration potential in the area). Norwegian's that are so impressed by the full data that they want in and will pay 92.5% of the costs of this well.
Not for widows nor orphans, but from what I've seen initially I'm happy to be here with a decent amount of my cash. With a tiny cap and only small financial exposure to this well ELP looks like an attractive risk reward scenario. Downside $1.1m approximately down the loo, upside a significant oil pay in the brent sandstone. You pays your money and you takes your chances. All imo, DYOR etc etc.
Regards,
Ed. "
Some more info
Finds now above 21 mmbbls of light oil are deemed commercial and will be able to secure significant bank finance.
North sea light oil is valued at approximately $13/bbl undeveloped, lifting costs can be as low as $4-5/bbl. Tax has unfortunately increased (approximately 50%), but due to the fallow oil inititive you can claim back ALL of your development costs from the first year of production.
Firstly the combined total shares in issue for ELP, EXR is 63.7m. There are also 15.5m options. A find of 30mmbbls would be worth $390m usd $156m to ELP. A find of 450mmbbls has an undeveoped value once proven (P2) of $5.85bn usd or $2.34bn to ELP some £20 odd pounds per share. ELP or the broker note mention AU$28 per share if Jaguar is proved up (read those two brokers reports, they're a must for all holders).
Finds now above 21 mmbbls of light oil are deemed commercial and will be able to secure significant bank finance.
North sea light oil is valued at approximately $13/bbl undeveloped, lifting costs can be as low as $4-5/bbl. Tax has unfortunately increased (approximately 50%), but due to the fallow oil inititive you can claim back ALL of your development costs from the first year of production.
Firstly the combined total shares in issue for ELP, EXR is 63.7m. There are also 15.5m options. A find of 30mmbbls would be worth $390m usd $156m to ELP. A find of 450mmbbls has an undeveoped value once proven (P2) of $5.85bn usd or $2.34bn to ELP some £20 odd pounds per share. ELP or the broker note mention AU$28 per share if Jaguar is proved up (read those two brokers reports, they're a must for all holders).
Thanks champ, its not often you find such a small company with such big potential hanging on this one drill in ground.
Risk is there, downside not too bad, upside is massive.
Small chance of being a good one, but if this drill is, then EXR could be times 20 easily in a short period of time.
You pay your money, you take your chance, this one is akin to gambling, with limited losses, and possible big wins
Risk is there, downside not too bad, upside is massive.
Small chance of being a good one, but if this drill is, then EXR could be times 20 easily in a short period of time.
You pay your money, you take your chance, this one is akin to gambling, with limited losses, and possible big wins
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Oh Dear, looks like a duster,
Pre-Open Indicated price is 65cents = - 35%
Pre-Open Indicated price is 65cents = - 35%
Young trader, with the suspension there was no pre-open.
There is no reason to suspend for a duster, Elixir last 2 drill have been dusters, with no halt to trading.
They said they would announce no news on Jaguar until 45 days after spudding, UNLESS they hit oil.
45 days is still 14 days away.
All the pointers say oil hit, but who cares now, its suspended and will not trade again until the news is known to all and released.
There is no reason to suspend for a duster, Elixir last 2 drill have been dusters, with no halt to trading.
They said they would announce no news on Jaguar until 45 days after spudding, UNLESS they hit oil.
45 days is still 14 days away.
All the pointers say oil hit, but who cares now, its suspended and will not trade again until the news is known to all and released.
Looking around for information here EXR went up from the 23rd. In the UK Elxir (ELP) went up from the 23rd as well
In Norway, Rocksource (Oslo RGT ticker) shot up from the 23rd.
RGT has no relevance to Elixir in any way apart from one, it does have a 10% carry on Jaguar drill. So if a Norwegian stock was shooting up on the 23rd too, and its only link is Jaguar, that would also say "hello, hit something in the deep sea" and it could be good.
If Jaguar was a duster, why halt trading ? The loss is just 1.1m$ as Elixir has a 38.5% free carry, its not even a major dent on the cash in bank. The last 2 drills in other area's were dusters and no need to halt trading, and Jaguar being a duster should also not halt trading but, if Jaguar hit oil, there is a need to halt trading, as the upside in the Ambrian report says, possible 28A$ per share if Jaguar has oil in a large way.
In Norway, Rocksource (Oslo RGT ticker) shot up from the 23rd.
RGT has no relevance to Elixir in any way apart from one, it does have a 10% carry on Jaguar drill. So if a Norwegian stock was shooting up on the 23rd too, and its only link is Jaguar, that would also say "hello, hit something in the deep sea" and it could be good.
If Jaguar was a duster, why halt trading ? The loss is just 1.1m$ as Elixir has a 38.5% free carry, its not even a major dent on the cash in bank. The last 2 drills in other area's were dusters and no need to halt trading, and Jaguar being a duster should also not halt trading but, if Jaguar hit oil, there is a need to halt trading, as the upside in the Ambrian report says, possible 28A$ per share if Jaguar has oil in a large way.
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Hope your right X-Factor, its just unlike with the other 2 wells EXR has attracted alot attention for Jaguar, so its probably best regardless of the outcome that the stock be put into a trading halt,
RE IOpen, well based on the amount of sellers the IOpen price is 65cents which is down -35% from trading prior to halt,
It could just be sppoked holders selling, expecting a duster or something more sinister, either way there are alot of sell orders up and not much to absorb a huge sell down,
I did hold EXR but sold for small profit (lesson learned from BUY and its Magnolia well, as well as BAS and its Zane Grey 1) and agreed that if it did hit Oil I would buy it up to $2 (maybe $3)
If its a duster I ain't gonna be watching it too closely after this
RE IOpen, well based on the amount of sellers the IOpen price is 65cents which is down -35% from trading prior to halt,
It could just be sppoked holders selling, expecting a duster or something more sinister, either way there are alot of sell orders up and not much to absorb a huge sell down,
I did hold EXR but sold for small profit (lesson learned from BUY and its Magnolia well, as well as BAS and its Zane Grey 1) and agreed that if it did hit Oil I would buy it up to $2 (maybe $3)
If its a duster I ain't gonna be watching it too closely after this
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hmm just saw your reply,
If Jaguar is a duster the stock will drift back to 35cents IMO,
Do you follow it for its first well? I remember that very clearly failure sent it from 70 cents down to 35cents,
Apart from Jaguar there isn't much in the shed for at least 6-12months
If Jaguar is a duster the stock will drift back to 35cents IMO,
Do you follow it for its first well? I remember that very clearly failure sent it from 70 cents down to 35cents,
Apart from Jaguar there isn't much in the shed for at least 6-12months
Young Trader next drill in another new license area is later in the last few months of this year.
The Jaguar drill will not even be finished yet, the should only last week have been entering the potential oil bearing structure.
EXR for the last few days has fallen in the opening hours on profit taking and then up in the afternoon, so a few sells lined up to take profits this morning should be expected, but, nothing happened as it was suspended first.
Its news now, if its good news, expect any sell orders to be cancelled and for buy orders to come in strong. Just needs news now.
The Ambrian report says possible 28A$ a share if Jaguar is a major oil find, I am really hoping it is
Good luck !
The Jaguar drill will not even be finished yet, the should only last week have been entering the potential oil bearing structure.
EXR for the last few days has fallen in the opening hours on profit taking and then up in the afternoon, so a few sells lined up to take profits this morning should be expected, but, nothing happened as it was suspended first.
Its news now, if its good news, expect any sell orders to be cancelled and for buy orders to come in strong. Just needs news now.
The Ambrian report says possible 28A$ a share if Jaguar is a major oil find, I am really hoping it is
Good luck !
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X I really really hope you took money off the table pre-spud.
If not, don't worry, you'll make it back else where.
Didn't think it would open at 45cents though, 50 yes but 45, if its a duster stock will be dead in the water, probably drift down to 35cents.
If not, don't worry, you'll make it back else where.
Didn't think it would open at 45cents though, 50 yes but 45, if its a duster stock will be dead in the water, probably drift down to 35cents.
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YOUNG_TRADER said:
And so EXR like many before is set adrift to join the ranks of BAS (Zane Grey 1 Failure) BUY/NWE/HZN (Magnolia Failure) OEX (Rockwood failure)
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YOUNG_TRADER said:
Well Jaguar was a duster and EXR did fall from $1 down to 35c(almost)
And here we are 8months on EXR has been going sideways from 36c-46c,
But now another well is due to be drilled in the next 2 weeks,
UKCS Block 15/13b – Guinea Prospect (EXR 13.125%)
The Company’s next exploration well on the Guinea prospect in Central North Sea Block 15/13b is anticipated to spud around mid-November. Nexen Petroleum UK, the well operator and principal farminee, has signed up the Borgsten Dolphin drilling rig on a multi-well contract and Guinea is scheduled to be the second well in the rig’s planned upcoming drilling campaign. After being delayed with the previous operator, Nexen has just taken delivery of the rig to commence its program.
Under the terms of the farm-in agreements announced in May 2006, Elixir will retain a 13.125% interest in the block with its share of well costs being fully-funded by Nexen and Gas Plus Italiana SpA.
The Guinea prospect is a robust four-way dip closed Palaeocene structure which lies on-trend with producing fields such as Balmoral and Dumbarton. Nexen drilled the Yeoman discovery on the neighbouring Block 15/18b to the south in 2005.
On an unrisked basis, the Guinea structure is estimated to host prospective resources of between 65 million (low case) and 120 million (high case) barrels of oil on Block 15/13b if hydrocarbons are present, with a mid case estimate of 91 million barrels.
Projected drilling time for the well is approximately 21 days on a dry-hole basis.
Worth watching
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