EVN - Evolution Mining

[DrBourse]

In regards to the breakout, maybe it will stay above that point. It's at the placement price.

View attachment 166694

Careful with EVN .

Beginners need to look at which way the Breakouts happen, particularly after the 3 Days, and note that USUALLY if the breakout takes a lot longer than the 3 days, it will USUALLY be a very WEAK Breakout... The Candle Colours are Irrelevant for Candles 1 & 2, But the next few Candles are Relevant.
Good Luck M8

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Shares in Evolution Mining (ASX:EVN) plummeted by 14% on Wednesday after trading resumed following a halt. The halt was to facilitate the company's efforts to raise $525 million to finance the acquisition of an 80% stake in the Northparkes copper gold mine in New South Wales, from China's CMOC

 

[Sean K]

Shares in Evolution Mining (ASX:EVN) plummeted by 14% on Wednesday after trading resumed following a halt. The halt was to facilitate the company's efforts to raise $525 million to finance the acquisition of an 80% stake in the Northparkes copper gold mine in New South Wales, from China's CMOC

I had my finger on the trigger to catch the falling knife, but withstood temptation. Reason I held off is that I think the market might have actually got it right. I do not like this acquisition one bit.

 

[divs4ever]

sub $2 for me , before i start thinking about adding

this does NOT look compelling to me ( the acquisition ) and previously i was willing to support them as them moved to increase efficiency and reduce costs ( even if it was unpopular with the market )

in hindsight it was right to trim the position it April and August to free up cash for other ventures

 

[divs4ever]

a big dump on EVN currently ( down over 9% )

i need less than $2.50

but the agile traders might be able to take advantage

i hold EVN

 

[finicky]

Strong reaction to Dec Qtrly now down 15%
COO leaving. Red Lake, Cowal, Mt Rawdon production down.
AISC I suspect is higher than expected at A$1,618 for the Quarter given maintained guidance FY24 of AISC A$1,340?
But momentum is guided to be up in H2

Not Held

 

[Sean K]

Strong reaction to Dec Qtrly now down 15%
COO leaving. Red Lake, Cowal, Mt Rawdon production down.
AISC I suspect is higher than expected at A$1,618 for the Quarter given maintained guidance FY24 of AISC A$1,340?
But momentum is guided to be up in H2

Not Held

View attachment 169032

Yikes, now 19%. Looks overdone. Not game to catch it.

 

[finicky]

Placement holders from 3.80 in December getting triggered?

 

[divs4ever]

order put in at sub $2.50

won't burst into tears if the top up order isn't hit , but in and waiting and watching

i guess time will tell

 

[divs4ever]

EVN is my selection for the February 2024 comp.

yes i am am half-expecting the current downtrend to continue in January and maybe early February ( that sub $2.50 order is still in the market )

but there are several national elections coming up in February and March and that uncertainty ( and surprise outcomes ) could help gold prices

please remember EVN has a cost reduction strategy in place , there is less chance of 'game-changing acquisitions ' than at some rivals

 

[Sean K]

EVN is my selection for the February 2024 comp.

yes i am am half-expecting the current downtrend to continue in January and maybe early February ( that sub $2.50 order is still in the market )

but there are several national elections coming up in February and March and that uncertainty ( and surprise outcomes ) could help gold prices

please remember EVN has a cost reduction strategy in place , there is less chance of 'game-changing acquisitions ' than at some rivals

I hope you win. eeeek.

Add in what's going on in the ME to the equation for Feb. Iran and Pakistan now trading missiles. Seems like anything could happen.

 

[finicky]

Reflecting on @DrBourse's post raising the notion of 'Containment Candles' whereby two consecutive candles have a wick and tail: more potent if a gap separates the candles, expect a sideways trading between the rangle of the two candles (= containment channel), expect a dramatic move when the range (channel) is breached.
EVN's piece behaviour fits the model to a T!

DAILY

 

[divs4ever]

I hope you win. eeeek.

Add in what's going on in the ME to the equation for Feb. Iran and Pakistan now trading missiles. Seems like anything could happen.

it seems like there is a break-away faction that wants an independent state but some of the faction reside in Iran and attack Pakistan , while others in the faction reside in Pakistan and attack Iran ( much like the Kurds near the Syria-Turkey border )

however information is very sketchy and it may just be another West-sponsored guerrilla force

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Reflecting on @DrBourse's post raising the notion of 'Containment Candles' whereby two consecutive candles have a wick and tail: more potent if a gap separates the candles, expect a sideways trading between the rangle of the two candles (= containment channel), expect a dramatic move when the range (channel) is breached.
EVN's piece behaviour fits the model to a T!

DAILY
View attachment 169218

I have to call bo**ocks on that .

Many occasions where that occurs and there is not a breakout and many occasions where there is a breakout under situations of different wicks and bodies of candles.

I would need proof from you or the good physician or PhD @DrBourse it is not the case under all other circumstances.

gg

 

[finicky]

@Garpal Gumnut I don't know how you've go far enough in life to be living in a hotel. When one observes one instance of something one can generalise to many such instances. It's called induction and it how some of us have evolved to descend from the trees and use our opposable thumbs and build civilisation.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

@Garpal Gumnut I don't know how you've go far enough in life to be living in a hotel. When one observes one instance of something one can generalise to many such instances. It's called induction and it how some of us have evolved to descend from the trees and use our opposable thumbs and build civilisation.

I just don't see how you can call that fandangle induction. Extending that argument would make my dog a philosopher for wanting his dinner now, which he does, so I'll catch you later, mate.

Start a thread with your old mate @DrBourse on that particular piece of nonsense that you quoted above and I might drag myself away to comment. I like and use TA btw. I don't want to spoil the EVN thread.

gg

 

[finicky]

EVN has aready undone its 2 days of rally following the big plunge.
I don't like the longer term chart.
The astute Greg Canavan of 'Fat Tail Investment Advisory' has ruminated on EVN and come out with a SELL recco and to divert the proceeds to his other goldie reccs. Together with the resignation of the COO and downgrade of Red Lake production guidance, he is concerned that Red Lake mine isn't shaping up and will continue to drain the coffers of capital.

To quote a fragment from his general update today:

"The problem for EVN is ongoing issues at the Red Lake mine in Canada. I have often said that the key to EVN’s share price recovery is progress at Red Lake. And it’s just not happening.

EVN acquired Red Lake in March 2020. It was an asset that needed significant investment. In FY22 EVN invested $153 million into the asset. In FY23 it invested $190 million (plus $60 million in sustaining capital). In FY24, it’s forecast to sink another $150 million into the project, not including sustaining capital.

Yet it’s still struggling to hit its targets. The December quarterly report revealed a downgrade of production at Red Lake from 170,000 ounces down to 125,000–135,000 ounces. Moreover, EVN’s Chief Operating Officer, Bob Fulker, has left the company to ‘pursue other opportunities’.

Something isn’t right at Red Lake."

He doesn't like the broader EVN chart picture either.

Not Held

 

[bsnews]

The fins out today look really good. I would post them but I am not sure how. Looking like Red Lake has been turned around copper looking like a bonus.

 

[divs4ever]

i thought they looked flat overall , sure production was up , but so were costs ( i kept adding to EVN , as they worked on reducing costs and increasing synergies )

and guidance was updated to the lower end of previous guidance

the newest acquisition is just starting to contribute

weather was a factor but time will tell whether that becomes a seasonal thing ( every year or two )

i hold EVN , and have a top up order in the market much lower than the current market price

will the market see EVN as a ( mostly ) unhedged play on copper and gold prices , or as a business making profits ( or losses

 

[bsnews]

Really? All I read is they are making more money then they know what to do with it haha but that's why we have a share market. And looking forward everything is looking really good for EVN into the next half.