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So it made 12.5 and IMO usually they set the price at some 'mid-point' prior to larger attempts at price movement, which is exactly what's taking place here, clearly visible on the USDCHF also.

If they can get this up to 13.3 before NFE release in over 24hrs we should see another top put in, highly unlikely IMO, so then I can put on another pair of shorts. It does look like they are attempting to cap this around mid to high 12's so they can push either way.

One option ruled out which means a 12.5 stretch or lookout 13.3ish here we come. if US data is a shocker its possible to 13.75 could be on the cards. I'm still not in. If I had a fat account I would have a short on already.

For those who give a toss about my views, I definitely don't follow the notion that bad news equal price drop, good news equal price jump, learnt a long time ago that's bollocks, and news is just a catalyst.

eurusd.png
 
And the winner is ...., except I recon we will see more continuation down now, so added the green extension. They have really put a cap on this down to 1.113 ish.

IMO, USDCHF is now really going to test just above parity 1.002ish tonight regardless of the news. I am going to expect more noise than direct movement. They are going to need some buying volume to send it through. Maybe the china deal later will do this??

eurusd.png
 
Glad I'm still not in this, one of the most heavily manipulated pairs. Looks like all sessions are working on another pump n dump, maybe working the Euro news in 36hrs? I was a little quick to dismiss option 2.
Anticipating mid to high 13's before putting on the shorts.

Eur News.png
 
Got one out of four correct. Still not at the top now, actually a bit of a fake Bear trap under way. I still hold high 13's for entering shorts. Worst thing is the best entry in coming days/weeks will be midnight Aust time during EUR/USD volume, as per normal.

eurusd.png

eurusd 17.04.png
 
So here we are again, still with long term target of 1.08. Will they make an additional move tonight?

EUR News.png

Last nights dip I have confidence was to ensure any upward movement tonight generated out of events, is some what muted.

Great opportunity for an aggressive up spike before continuing down, while only mid point on the weekly ave range.

eur H1.png eur.png
 
Alright, out of the trade now. Hit my profit target.

Bit of a run down on how I go about looking for charts setting up and what I was looking for during the trade. I start with a top down analysis and mark out key levels on the 1M, 1W and 1D charts. Then I move down to the 4H, 2H and 1H and do the same. Then I like to jump down the 30 and 15 minute charts for key support and resistance levels. I tried trading off even lower time frames - but I don't think it was for me. I really enjoyed the 15 minute charts.

My thought was that I liked that price was hovering around the 38.2 fib retracement. This is what first caught my interest.

First entry was at 0.18211 for 1 micro lot (yep, trading micro lots to start because I have never traded currencies, or with leverage for that matter). Entry was because of the bullish candle and the inside candle three and four candles back - bought the break of the high. Stop at 1.18058.

Second entry was at 1.18372 for 1 micro lot. Bought the break of the high wick to the left of the second entry. All stops moved to below the prior swing low.

Third entry was at 1.18560 for 5 micro lots. Bought the break of the high two candles before. All stops were at break even by this point.

Profit target was the 161.8 fib extension (1.18837). As soon as I saw the candle take off after my final entry, I stupidly removed all my profit targets hoping for a bigger move - then I realised I was hoping and I started to close all my positions at or above my profit target level.

1st micro lot exit @ 1.18837
2nd micro lot exit @ 1.18840
Final 5 micro lots exit @ 1.18892

7.45% profit.

EURUSD2.JPG
 
Last edited:
frugal.rock said:
Thanks for the write up. :xyxthumbs
Am interested, what made you start and what broker is the go?
Cheers.
Click to expand...
Hey @frugal.rock, no worries at all.

Liquidity and availability of the markets. I wanted to trade intra day but ASX liquidity for that type of trading is horrible in my opinion. I wanted to be able to trade intra day even if I wasn't available to be at my computer until the afternoon or night. I wanted to be able to trade long and short. I like that I can have and use leverage. You can build a small account much easier when you only have to put up about $21 in margin to control $7,000 worth of currency CFD's (obviously it depends on how much leverage you choose to use). So much to like, I think.

As for brokers, I went with Pepperstones Razor account using the MT4 platform on my phone. Simple and easy to use. I only use MT4 for execution, though. I use Trading View on my computer to chart.
 

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