Equities On Verge Of Very Violent Rally

[sinner]

prana,

Check this please, I add another analyst to the pile above ^^

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/03/another-bear-market-rally-or-something.html

Another Bear Market Rally or Something More?

Worth checking out. Mish sometimes sprinkles a bit of EW in with his usual commentary and his call (or wherever he is getting it from) is broad (I'm sure you get better as a client : ) but good enough for those watching at home.

 

[Aussiejeff]

lol

good timing on this thread, hey?

question is , is it sustainable?

For as long as uber-bullish "leaked internal memos" are made by bailed-out US bwankers....

It's the New Strategy.

A good leak and a willing media.

Powerful stuff.

 

[Bushman]

For as long as uber-bullish "leaked internal memos" are made by bailed-out US bwankers....

It's the New Strategy.

A good leak and a willing media.

Powerful stuff.

As some dude on the internet said about Citi:
'If someone paid all my bills and debts, even I would be profitable'.

 

[nizar]

As some dude on the internet said about Citi:
'If someone paid all my bills and debts, even I would be profitable'.

Classic

 

[prana]

It might well be (prana 0 financials 2) but my hopethesis is that this is a bear rally and a covering of shorts.

 

[M34N]

As some dude on the internet said about Citi:
'If someone paid all my bills and debts, even I would be profitable'.

Legendary

Our market doesn't even look that good today, up less than 2% at the moment even after a rebound of 5.8% on the Dow? A lot of the miners off their day highs, the banks doing a good job holding up the bourse. Wonder how long this enthusiasm will last before everyone realises that none of the problems have disappeared and things have only gotten worse.

As nun says, bless'em.

 

[Pythagerous]

Wall Street and other markets up overnight. Australia Market up sharply at open. Although it may just be a rally after a heavy down period, it does offer some hope, and if the market can string a couple of positive days together, it may go a fair way to restoring some confidence back in the economy, which is what the economy needs.

Although the data at the moment is gloomy, the sharemarket generally looks ahead 3 months in advance, and with markets always recovering before the majority of people expect it, this could be the crank that we need to get the engine going. Alternatively, it could well possibly be the last grasp for air, before it sinks to the bottom of the old Blue Haven.

With interest rates dropping, consumers becoming concious of their spending and saving more and companies cutting down costs in order to make profit, there will become a time, where consumers are confident with their financial position and companies start to look like good investments, as they have scaled back costs and put themselves in a better position to make profit.

In a falling market, guaranteed bank interest of about 4% is attractive to investors, and why wouldnt it be. However there will come a point in time where the stock market will start to look more attractive then the interest the banks are offering.

 

[michael_selway]

prana,

Check this please, I add another analyst to the pile above ^^

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/03/another-bear-market-rally-or-something.html

Another Bear Market Rally or Something More?

Worth checking out. Mish sometimes sprinkles a bit of EW in with his usual commentary and his call (or wherever he is getting it from) is broad (I'm sure you get better as a client : ) but good enough for those watching at home.

Hey nice, how true



thx

MS

 

[Glen48]

Appears Helicopter Ben said this should be over by Xmas, and Citi bank who were with in days of folding made a profit had to use some doggy figures so the DOW shot up.

In terms of the main drivers of the bullish overnight action, an "accidently" leaked internal memo indicating Citi has actually been profitable for the first two months of the year was a prime catalyst. It is of course early days and we would caution against attaching too much weight to this one event, but it does at least serve to remind the market that we are not in a terminal tailspin and profitability will eventually recover. This is crucial for wider market confidence.

On the negative side of the ledger, it is concerning to see the TED spread ticking up, suggesting that banks confidence in each other is not improving. This has the potential to cause a serious impediment to economic recovery and we will need to see lending conditions improve if a wider market rally is to prove sustainable.

 

[Pairs Trader]

We may have made a short term tradeable bottom, however not a bear market bottom in my opinion. We have only come back to the long term regression trend line, I predict we will go lower and sometime over the next 18months we will mark the bear market low.

 

[nikemi]

Wall Street and other markets up overnight. Australia Market up sharply at open. Although it may just be a rally after a heavy down period, it does offer some hope, and if the market can string a couple of positive days together, it may go a fair way to restoring some confidence back in the economy, which is what the economy needs.

Although the data at the moment is gloomy, the sharemarket generally looks ahead 3 months in advance, and with markets always recovering before the majority of people expect it, this could be the crank that we need to get the engine going. Alternatively, it could well possibly be the last grasp for air, before it sinks to the bottom of the old Blue Haven.

With interest rates dropping, consumers becoming concious of their spending and saving more and companies cutting down costs in order to make profit, there will become a time, where consumers are confident with their financial position and companies start to look like good investments, as they have scaled back costs and put themselves in a better position to make profit.

In a falling market, guaranteed bank interest of about 4% is attractive to investors, and why wouldnt it be. However there will come a point in time where the stock market will start to look more attractive then the interest the banks are offering.

Well many bottoms have been called before and all of them have been false, so maybe now that finally everyone is so sceptic to this rally things will be different at least in the short to medium term. Many 'pros' have said that for a true bottom to come to play everyone should be saying that we are no where close to the bottom.

 

[Prospector]

I think it is KRudd's stimulus package at work; all those Family A and B people got their money today!

 

[prana]

glad to know my M1 is being diluted by SIR KRUDD so the dole bludgers can spend on my wage !

 

[Struzball]

5% short covering rally in the US. No shorts on fincancials to cover here so no rally.

 

[psychic]

glad to know my M1 is being diluted by SIR KRUDD so the dole bludgers can spend on my wage !

Interesting quote when you consider that dole bludgers were excluded from any hand-outs thus far. Check your facts please.

www.centrelink.gov.au

where does it state that a dole bludger on newstart payments gets a cash bonus?

 

[prana]

tongue in cheek .... Sorry I cracked a nerve...

 

[Aussiejeff]

Oh dear!

Pass the Bex please!

Looks like somebody forgot to tell the Chinese about the bwanker party .....

March 11 (Bloomberg) -- [size=+1]China’s trade surplus plunged in February[/size] as exports fell by a record, adding pressure on the government to spur domestic consumption to prop up the world’s third-biggest economy.

The trade gap narrowed to $4.8 billion, about an eighth of the amount in the previous month, the customs bureau said in a statement. Exports tumbled 25.7 percent from a year earlier. Imports fell 24.1 percent.

The government has halted the yuan’s gains against the dollar and plans to cut export taxes to zero as demand dries up because of the global slump. Premier Wen Jiabao is relying on a 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) stimulus package to propel economic expansion after the weakest growth in seven years threw millions out of work.

“There’s no hope for export demand to recover any time soon,” said Wang Qian, a Hong Kong-based economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. “How fast imports recover depends on how soon the government’s stimulus package kicks in and creates real demand in major industries.”

The timing of a Lunar New Year holiday masked what would otherwise have been a steeper decline in trade, said Mark Williams, a London-based economist at Capital Economics Ltd. The holiday meant that there were more working days in February this year than in 2008.

The median estimates in a Bloomberg News survey of 16 economists were for a $28.3 billion trade surplus, a 1 percent decline in exports and a 22.5 percent drop in imports. [/b]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a9Ih4pDxaIK4&refer=home

Perhaps this not-so-bullish news has popped the ASX party-goer's bubbles?

 

[Julia]

Interesting quote when you consider that dole bludgers were excluded from any hand-outs thus far. Check your facts please.

www.centrelink.gov.au

where does it state that a dole bludger on newstart payments gets a cash bonus?

In the current environment of rising unemployment, it might be good not to use the term 'dole bludger', Prana.
Plenty of conscientious, hard working people are losing their jobs through no fault of their own.

 

[prana]

true true.

I'll be reminded.

 

[Prospector]

I read the other day that Rudd was planning on helping disadvantaged people into Uni. I wonder if he is doing that automatically with the number of people now being unemployed. If an unemployed person has school aged children I presume they are on Family A and Family B benefits which means at least $950 per child.