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EPY - ePay Asia

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stockpanther said:
Julia...my apologies for not providing rationale in my post, I struggle to find time to post all my reasons on various forums, but over the next couple of days i will attempt to find some time to address some points.

I urge you to look at the growth characteristics of e-pay's markets (on average growing at over 20%/year for next 4 years), it's success in malaysia (and to a lesser extent indonesia) which can be replicated in exactly the same fasion in other markets and the nature of its business model.

This company is profitable, it has a proven track record of growth. It's market cap is currently about 84 million, (i think its closer to 110 million when fully diluted) which is quite high, but the company will turn in at least a $6.5million profit this year....for the growth characteristics and past success this isn't an unreasonable premium by any stretch.

That's all I have time for, for now.
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Stockpanther et al,

Thanks for your responses. I'm glad to know you don't actually have money in this company.

My point was not to do with how good the company is, or its potential, but simply that none of that matters if the market doesn't recognise and/or agree with how great you think it is. Presuming you are here to make money, it's only a rising SP that is going to do that for you.

So if you buy on a company's "potential" (and lots of people do - I've done it myself) and nothing else you can waste a lot of time and money.

I was just suggesting that if real money is involved, then there are more profitable places to put it.

Good luck to you all. Hope it makes a motza for you!

Julia
 
I've got some money in this company. The downside isn't massive as EPS is going to be approx 3.5cents per share, placing it on not an overly high p/e. Yes this is a growth stock, but it isn't trading at a massive premium.

I encourage you to all read the 26 page report written by pegasus at this link: http://www.e-payasia.com/investor_pressandresearch.html

Another huge trade of e-pay at close today, almost 1 million shares at $0.40.
 
thanks alot stockpanther will have a look through it.

im not holding yet but will be eventually.i like alot what ive read about this company.one of those stocks that just cant see to get moving atm.im sure it will soon alot of potential here imo.once it starts rising i think it will be one u can hold for a few years and 5-10x your money.

thanks again
 
hello from england,just to let you all know,EPY has had a good week,volume has been good on one day we had a 100k buy :O) that was nice...we are expecting a rise from our base position,which seems to be happening
 
zztop said:
hello from england,just to let you all know,EPY has had a good week,volume has been good on one day we had a 100k buy :O) that was nice...we are expecting a rise from our base position,which seems to be happening
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who's "we". If you're going to use "we" please at least identify who "we" is. Do you work for Epay?
 
Finally, the bloody share price has moved in the right direction! up 13.9% so far today.

3rd quarter results released, along with an upgrade in earnings from $6m to $7m, and it looks like potential for the end of year results to be $8m.

Out of the red on this one now, with a nice little 6.5% gain to show for it.
 
The sp seems to jump on their quarterly announcements and comes down slowly afterwards, last quarter the earnings increase was 277% and it came back down to 40c within a few weeks.

Hopefully it doesn't drop back again, as it has great potential, constant 60% growth, 2007 profit of appprox $7m and a market cap of $88m you would think that the sp would keep moving. A P/E of less than 13 and the growth rate that it has should be enough to get some upward movement, but it hasn't happened in the past as yet. Doing some investor meetings might help as well....but it has the potential to flatline again even with all the good things going for it.
 
I bought some more today at 41c

Why is the SP not going up, why is all this trading happening?

Is there something the insiders know that we don't that could screw us?
 
EPY...

is kicking goals...

8th seller is 94 cents... not many sellers... lots of buyers though...

is this a deception....

hmmm...
 
Hi all,

I have been following EPY for the past year, having invested in March 06 and topping up again in July 06. I have been involved on a couple of other share forums re EPY, however it appears this one has more people following EPY so thought I would join in!

No point repeating everything that has been said previously, but I also think EPY has good potential, provided they can continue to successfully implement their ambitious expansion plans ... and as with all stocks only time will tell. However, the results and announcements to date have been encouraging.

A few points to note:

1. As I think Stockpanther pointed out it now looks definite the shareholding will be diluted in early 2006 when Simon Loh gets a further 72.5mm shares issued as part of the original purchase consideration. It is difficult to determine whether this will have an impact on the SP, however one would assume this is now built into the current SP. The shares are supposedly issued within 14 days after full year results announcement - which leaves the question open as to whether the shares issued will be entitled to receive the final dividend payment?

2. We should shortly receive an update on how the negotiations with E-Charge are going. The prior announcement in relation to this mentioned formal negotiations have started however to date nothing appears to have been finalised. Hopefully this can be resolved asap and EPY starts deriving revenue from the Indian market.

3. While the results to date have been promising in terms of profit attributable to shareholders, this appears to have largely been driven by improved margins (which can be attributed to the shift towards electronic top-up). However, revenues to date do not appear to have matched the prospectus forecast (AUD 620mm FY2006). It was encouraging to see Q3 revenue top AUD150mm, and hopefully this can be maintained.

Cheers
 
Costa,

According to the report by Pegasus the extra 72.5m shares will not effect eps until FY07. In calcualting eps for FY06 they have 200m shares rising to 273m in FY07. Pegasus have a FY06 NPAT of 7.31m and eps of 3.66cps giving a PE of 12.9x for FY06. The Pegasus report was written before the release of 3Q06 results and I suspect they may have upgraded their numbers since then. If the company makes NPAT of $7m that will put them on an undemanding PE of 13.4x. However unless my calculations are wrong or there is some serious margin erosion in the 4th quarter I would expect the company report around $8.0m NPAT for FY06.

Why $8m? Have a look at the attached spreadsheet. The first scenario assumes the company maintains it's margins and reaches their recently stated Sales target of $600m, the second scenario assumes they only match 3Q06 revenue in 4Q06 and keep their margins constant. Even based on the second scenario the company should report approx $7.9m assuming their margins remain constant. That's eps of 3.9cps and a PE of 11.9x.

looking forward to FY07, the biggest impediment to a major re-rating in the share price is the dilution from the extra 72.5m shares. That's a 36% dilution which means that the company needs to grow NPAT by 36% just to keep eps flat (ie 0% growth). Eps growth will pick up again in FY08 when earnings from China and India really start to kick in and the dilution is out of the way however I suspect that may be a little far out for investors to look just now.
 

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Hi Dhukka,

I have also done some calculations - and agree that based on the results to date NPAT should at least be AUD 8mm, which is a very promising first year since listing.

Interesting times ahead.
 
For some reason I thought the dilution was only 30m shares.

Does anyone think that 72.5m is ridiculous?

I'm not sure how i had this oversight...it seems way too much..
 
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