ENG - Engin Limited

[IGO4IT]

just few questions for those who may think subjectively about this stock:

1. which current competitor are you scared of to take on the action from ENG now or within 1 year?

2. why do you think that this company will not grow (I'm not talking about $1/share in 12 months, I'm talking about normal growth)?

I think the arguement was always about what's good about this company, I would love to hear about what would STOP ENG from growing "NORMALLY" in the NEXT 12 MONTHS?

I hate to be 1 of those that are always scared of the unknown & also of those that are not being able to believe themselves when they could have a real winner just because life is too harsh to be that good!

lets all remember were not selling tomatoes in the veg. market here, this game we're playing has logics that we like to believe that work, they don't work all time nor ever they just fail. we just like to think negatively until proven positive & I hate that about myself!!

would love to hear from you.

cheers.

 

[Porper]

I hate to be 1 of those that are always scared of the unknown & also of those that are not being able to believe themselves when they could have a real winner just because life is too harsh to be that good!

we just like to think negatively until proven positive & I hate that about myself!!

would love to hear from you.

cheers.

IGO4IT, strange that you obviously think you are negative with a nickname like yours.Maybe that is how you want to see yourself.Anyway not getting into all that stuff.

As for ENG, fundamentally I wouldn't have much of a clue, suffice to say, have a look at the chart of ENG, a very easy pattern to see ............................ it's going up after numerous consolidations.This tells me that the fundamentals of the company are getting better, no disputing that as the value of the company is going up !! If the trend changes substantially I will be out, nothing complicated about it.

If you are going to get it wrong and we all do, often in fact, only be a bit wrong.By that I mean get out quick when it turns against you.

 

[IGO4IT]

Porper, that's exactly my point, I "personally & not sure about others" don't love or hate a company, I go with signs & if positive I take a chance.

most of the time tech analysis & logical growth/competition factors make sense & translate SP of any stock to go higher or lower. nothing guaranteed of course!!

all arguements were about "what ifs" which I don't think is right. If I see any "physical" & particular competition fear or if my trend is weak I run away with my money to other stock who has potential.

so far, all what we have are what ifs & may bes.

cheers,

 

[pch]

IGO4IT

It depends on your intentions. I'm a buy and hold person and I don't use TA at all.. I rarely sell and prefer to build up dividend income to supplement my regular income. I'm not anti TA either, its just doesn't suit me. So whether you agree or disagree philisophically with my investing style hopefully you can see where I'm coming from.

I only posted (perhaps to my peril ;-) to this thread because I am in the ISP/Telco industry, have worked for small publicly listed telcos and I know about the VOIP and can deciper the fluff from the company reports. Not because I like or dislike the stock..

I was trying to offer a perspective in about the only industry I know anything about I recommend this book is you *really* want to learn about VOIP but trust me - you don't

http://www.ciscopress.com/title/1587050145

So you may rightly argue that my attitude is a direct result of bad experiences in working in this industry - and you'd be dead right! Telco decision making goes like this.. "We have two options, A and B. Option A is half the cost of option B, but will not look as good when we announce it to the ASX, so lets go with option B"

In relation to your question of competitors, I did see just today that Primus are getting in on the act..

http://australianit.news.com.au/articles/0,7204,18363220^15306^^nbv^,00.html

 

[IGO4IT]

Hi pch,

I work in the industry as well & I design networks & configure the cisco routers for companies to connect all their branches thru VOIP.

I see your point that those who are looking for a long term hold would be a little paranoid about this stock (long term here I think is more than 2-3 years), imo,Technology stocks with all forms & sorts are NOT long term holds (technology upgrades & competition is too fast for any company to last for 5 years as a leader!) & tech. stocks will never give you the peace of mind of forgetting about them. I actually argue that any stocks are!!.

my point here is, if you want to play safe, then we all know the options available to play it safe, this stock is risky being a tech. stock but with short to medium term potential in my opinion. I'll never argue that even telstra has a VOIP product in the market now! but it doesn't erase the fact the ENG has new customers coming in everyday, they could be good or lucky, in a 1-2 years view no one should really care as long as they're growing & making profits.

I think the golden rule with tech. stocks is: watch it or you lose it!

so risk here is same as others but a bit more potential with it carrying new technology & savings,etc...tomorrow, technology could be old or competition is very taugh then you ride the new rival who promises to change the world if you like their story.

long term stocks that you could forget about without any worry??? I would like anyone to tell me JUST ONE !!! I'll put all what I have in it & sit on the beach & get a tan I think that's a myth!

 

[sandik17]

Hi guys, thanks for the feedback.

And don't worry duckman, I won't brag when it does go up.
Or, will try not to anyway

I appreciate your gentlemanly way Pharoah, but I can't afford to be so kind.....I'll be rubbing it in ....with SALT!!!

 

[Duckman#72]

I appreciate your gentlemanly way Pharoah, but I can't afford to be so kind.....I'll be rubbing it in ....with SALT!!!

......ahhhhh - Sandik - why? why? why?

I sit before you a beaten, pitiful man. A shell of an investor who can take no more - yet you continue my persecution. My back is raw from the whippings, my face bruised from the blows and still you attack. Have you no mercy?

Now you tell me you are getting the salt ready - well mind that you don't spill the saltcellar as Judas did at the Last Supper. We don't want any bad luck before the release of Thursday's report do we?

Please forgive Sandik for all those things she does against me.

Duckman

 

[Duckman#72]

I appreciate your gentlemanly way Pharoah, but I can't afford to be so kind.....I'll be rubbing it in ....with SALT!!!

Incidentally - did you know that salt was once more valuable than gold? We get the word salary from the Roman word salarium as the Roman soldiers were paid in salt. It was a universal currency.

So if you do happen to spill some of the salt you are getting ready to rub into my wounds, for good luck, make sure you throw some over your left shoulder. Oh dear! That's devilishly ironic isn't it!!? When you stop and think about it - it's a bit like throwing money away. All roads seem to be leading us back to ENG shares.........and I so wanted to go the other way.

Safe Travelling

Duckman

 

[pharaoh]

Hi guys

Sorry, I couldn't log on until today, and I missed out on all the fun it seems.
Duckman, don't worry, Sandik and I will both be courteous...

Sandik, let's not get Duckman offside, he may even buy into ENG after Thurs, you never know

On IG's posts;

1. which current competitor are you scared of to take on the action from ENG now or within 1 year?
**** I guess Primus would have to be a threat. They have a huge customner base, but are losing a lot of it to ENG and others, hence this decision to bite the bullet and come in line with what was inevitable.

I often think, that competition is sometimes a positive thing. What it does is create awareness, especially important when new technology is concerned.

People may read Primus's letters on VOIP, and look around at their options. ENG advertises on TV a lot, and is getting a lot of brand awareness, so I think this will certainly help in fact to get consumers thinking that VOPI is not techie thing, but a serious option for them at home.

Look at the US, the bells have not taken the market from Vonage and the smaller companies, awareness has grown, and everyone has benefited by it.

2. why do you think that this company will not grow (I'm not talking about $1/share in 12 months, I'm talking about normal growth)

Hmmm, this is a tough one.
Growth seems to be about 65% month on month at the moment. That will have to slow, let's face it.

Perhaps competition will slow it down, or they may simply fail to show diferentiators in the market, but that's probably unlikely, as they won't want to lose their huge advantage after working so hard to make it a household name.

Sorry, not really sure I answered that too well.

Salt huh, wow. I didn't know that. I guess it wouldn't have been a very good currency system, perhaps a bit messy...

Anyone got any thoughts on the movements of the stock anyway, in the lead up to the announcement?

 

[IGO4IT]

being quite before an expected good ann is my opinion a good sign of a sudden increase on the news.

others keep going higher in anticipation in few days before ann which discounts the good news even if they were excellent.

I think we may see some action tomorrow especially before close & definetely a lot of action on thursday.

Looking to the chart, resistance is at at 27.5c & that's my only worry at the moment.

if resistance point was broken, on the top of the chart.....I see a lot of alcohol consumption & happy people dancing

 

[pharaoh]

Good stuff IG

I will keep the seaview brut in the fridge, or moet if it breaks 30c
Think will top up a bit tomorrow again, it was at 24c this afternoon at close, so is a bit of a bargain now.

 

[sandik17]

Yehaa! I can't tell you how exciting it is for me to find others who believe in this company. I have to admit Duckman had almost convinced me that I was the only one supporting this stock, and that it was a dud...it's hard to forget the old 'penny-dreadful' comment!

Anyway, it's exciting...if not nervous times ahead for eng. Apparently one of Duckman's concerns was this stock getting ahead of itself...so it is a good thing there's not a lot of upward movement pre Thursday's announcement. (Firstly cause it's allowed me to buy in some more...and secondly because it will allow room for movement on Thursday).

In regards to movement of stock....just watch the dial on Thursday! :jump:

 

[pharaoh]

Hey Sand'

Yes, I have always been a fan - did you buy at 6c?
I am sooo upset with myself. Can you imagine, if my $5k was invested then, would be sitting on $20k now. Ha;fway to a deposit for a unit...

A friend working for a fund mgr actually talked me out of it back then, saying, "don't put your money into a small one like that" - doh.

Once the ann comes, what in ur opinion could it be looking at closing out the week at?

I am hoping well above 30.

I guess I hope it has got this far on spec, and i'm hoping on thurs it will prove the value per share to investors, based on what financials they report.

People are happy to drive the sp up and up as long as they know they are making money, or will be.

 

[sandik17]

Hey Sand'

Yes, I have always been a fan - did you buy at 6c?

Once the ann comes, what in ur opinion could it be looking at closing out the week at?

I am hoping well above 30.

People are happy to drive the sp up and up as long as they know they are making money, or will be.

I originally started getting 'interested' at 9 and bought in (like you against others' advice) at 11. I did sell at 16 and bought in again at 19. So many people just have no idea how good VoIP is, and how accessible it can be for people.

You mentioned the moet at 30...I rekon 30 is do-able very soon, maybe even by Friday this week if this ann is as good as I expect...so I'm holding the moet till they hit 50...and I don't think that'll be too long either!!

I make no secret of the fact that I think the ann. is going to be FANTASTIC! When this stock starts showing a profit they are going to be in a position to expand and the sky's the limit really...

 

[pharaoh]

Cool

I heard maybe expanding into Asia, can't remember where or when though.

 

[Duckman#72]

Apparently one of Duckman's concerns was this stock getting ahead of itself...so it is a good thing there's not a lot of upward movement pre Thursday's announcement.

Hello Sandik

I am beginning to think that.........you don't like me very much.......but I just tell myself - we always hurt those that are closest to us. I must mean a lot to you, so I will continue on with our good natured debate:

........not a lot of upward movement.......??!!!! You can't be serious!!!??

ENG shares have more than tripled in value over the past 3 months!!! How much more "UP" do you want leading into a quarterly report!!!

This has been my argument all along - the market has already factored the anticipated good news into the ENG share price. The price hasn't risen based on the fundamentals tabled at the last meeting that's for sure!! Unless in this crazy modern world shares triple in value when companies report on future losses. The SOLE reason for the surge in this company is the "growth factor".
Unless ENG management have some other exciting news to report on other than the increased (and totally expected) subcriber numbers I can't see a breakout of any serious note.

Although... Sandik - let me say this. Regardless of the outcome on Thursday - you will be a winner! Thanks to my "penny dreadful" comments you have discovered a whole world of posters that share your love of ENG - and you appear to have appointed yourself their spiritual leader. My concern is that you are leading your tribe of ENG warriors based on classic irrational investor behaviour. If you get a chance look up the terms Anchoring, Cognitive Dissonance, Availability Bias, Over-Confidence, Herding and Conservatism Bias on the internet. Your people look to you for strong leadership and guidance now - do not let them down!

All the Best

Duckman

 

[pharaoh]

I thought we had the white flag going....

I agree Duckman, Sandik does have to be a little more relaxed though, put it down to enthusiasm. You know how some people bite when their fav stock is, well, not criticised, but...examined, let's say. Cos they are emotionally tied to the company. I have to agree, with ENG, it's the only one I am also tied emotionally to.

She isn't critical of any of your postings, so if she holds back abit, i'm sure you'll give ENG a go.

For the record, your post did bring a smile to my face, was definitely worth the read.

 

[Duckman#72]

I thought we had the white flag going....

She isn't critical of any of your postings, so if she holds back abit, i'm sure you'll give ENG a go.

For the record, your post did bring a smile to my face, was definitely worth the read.

G'day Pharaoh - I'm glad I raised a smile and you took the post the right way.

 

[pharaoh]

Watch this space, may have some interesting pre announcement news to post tonight.
Hopefully anyway, from a 3rd party...

 

[IGO4IT]

I'm looking at previous announcements & nothing was mentioned before on this year's first half performance of ENG, only 1 announcement of a growth of 81% in December which was published early Feb I think.

how was the expected growth factored in the price if we don't know what the growth is (if any) for the first half year?

the price had just came back from 27.5c without any further info than what we have now & there was nothing else related to industry at that time other than TELSTRA getting rid of pay phones!

I can only understand that the market had absorbed the good news if:

1. everyone is 100% positive its good new, which I doubt because some people here still arguing!!
2. when exact growth or loss is known & calculations start & estimatation of the real value of the share based on new potential & mngmnt ability starts.

to cut it short, I am the biggest believer & very optomistic about tomorrow's result but I'm not really sure about how good they are & I don't have figures to tell you what will the share price be like unless we get exact figures & how good they are.

skeptics are waiting & will buy when they're sure that ENG is REALLY going in the right direction.