EMR - Emerald Resources

[bhutos]

Re: EMR - Emerald Oil and Gas

Well that pretty much confirms that everyone is too damn impatient, talking about it being a duster for the last week heh.

 

[moneymajix]

Re: EMR - Emerald Oil and Gas

23,5c, up nearly 12%.

Nice to have some good news today as well as the DOW green.

How much is PB worth to the sp if the final results are positive? Thoughts?

 

[wllmtrish]

Re: EMR - Emerald Oil and Gas

Read somewhere a figure of 10c, cannot locate source but will post if I c it again.
I hold EMR AGS CUL CQT

 

[greenfs]

Re: EMR - Emerald Oil and Gas

Share Trader in the Herald Sun was talking about ARE breaking 30 cents and then running to 45 cents, not EMR

I would like to sincerely apologise to all readers for getting the stock code incorrect in my post earlier today. I had ready it somewhere over coffee early this morning and subsequently tried to verify and post the detail by doing a web search, but that proved unsuccessful.

I thank you for the correction notice posted

 

[bhutos]

Re: EMR - Emerald Oil and Gas

Read somewhere a figure of 10c, cannot locate source but will post if I c it again.
I hold EMR AGS CUL CQT

I think I said 10c at one point but gas prices have risen since my last calc a few weeks ago, I've just re-calc'd and it's now 11.5c but it's based on the HH spot price which is probably inflated and above what EMR would actually sell for.

"Spot and future prices set at Henry Hub are denominated in $/mmbtu (millions of British Thermal Units) and are generally seen to be the primary price set for the North American natural gas market. North American unregulated wellhead and burnertip natural gas prices are closely correlated to those set at Henry Hub."

10 Bcf + 0.1 mmbbl condensate.

Current HH spot price is US$6.39 (AU $7.49) MMbtu

On average 1 MMBtu = .974 Mcf

.974 * 7.49 = $7.30

Bcf = 1,000,000 Mcf

$7.3M per Bcf

Total Potential = $73M

15% = $10.95M

EMR has ~97,991,994 shares/options

$10.95M/97991994 = 11.17c

so a gas discovery price of 11.2c

the condensate is maybe worth 0.3c discovery ($20 bbl - probably incorrect) so it's about a 11.5c total.

I've got to find out what % premium (I assume there is one) the HH Spot is over what EMR would actually be selling for to get an accurate discovery price.

 

[kray192]

Re: EMR - Emerald Oil and Gas

I think I said 10c at one point but gas prices have risen since my last calc a few weeks ago, I've just re-calc'd and it's now 11.5c but it's based on the HH spot price which is probably inflated and above what EMR would actually sell for.

"Spot and future prices set at Henry Hub are denominated in $/mmbtu (millions of British Thermal Units) and are generally seen to be the primary price set for the North American natural gas market. North American unregulated wellhead and burnertip natural gas prices are closely correlated to those set at Henry Hub."

10 Bcf + 0.1 mmbbl condensate.

Current HH spot price is US$6.39 (AU $7.49) MMbtu

On average 1 MMBtu = .974 Mcf

.974 * 7.49 = $7.30

Bcf = 1,000,000 Mcf

$7.3M per Bcf

Total Potential = $73M

15% = $10.95M

EMR has ~97,991,994 shares/options

$10.95M/97991994 = 11.17c

so a gas discovery price of 11.2c

the condensate is maybe worth 0.3c discovery ($20 bbl - probably incorrect) so it's about a 11.5c total.

I've got to find out what % premium (I assume there is one) the HH Spot is over what EMR would actually be selling for to get an accurate discovery price.

Your figure is misleading, try not to use the in ground value of the resource since you do have the cost of extracting it, learn NPV.
Using NPV of 20% profit margin:
The true gas value to company is $AU2.19 million, and the condensate is about $AU 240k (Using $80 per barrel for calculation sake). Thats about $2.4 million, thats about 2.4 cents per share.
The NPV can be lower since this well isn't that big so less economies of scale, so just take the 20% as a rough figure.
However remember that energy prices can rise in the future so with any rise the NPV would also rise correspondingly.



I just really really hate people always using in ground value of the resource.

 

[moneymajix]

Re: EMR - Emerald Oil and Gas

Bhutos,

Thanks for your post.

Gets people thinking and the ball rolling



Kray,

No comment.

 

[kray192]

Re: EMR - Emerald Oil and Gas

moneymajinx, oh i saw what you wrote but your honey is pretty evil cause it misinform people about SP.

 

[doctorj]

Re: EMR - Emerald Oil and Gas

Your figure is misleading, try not to use the in ground value of the resource since you do have the cost of extracting it, learn NPV.

What extraction costs are you using and are you assuming a uniform extraction? More often than not in oil and gas, very high %s of the recoverable reserves is extracted within the first year. This often minimises the impact of discounting for time.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Re: EMR - Emerald Oil and Gas

Your figure is misleading, try not to use the in ground value of the resource since you do have the cost of extracting it, learn NPV.
The NPV can be lower since this well isn't that big so less economies of scale, so just take the 20% as a rough figure.

Here is a fact....

The Australian natural gas market has changed markedly over the last 18 to 24 months, with recent sales in the range of U.S. $5.50 per thousand cubic feet.

The aussie prices are changing with demand as do all commodities so company valuation on resource will vary accordingly.A rough figure is good to work with though.

 

[moneymajix]

Re: EMR - Emerald Oil and Gas

rayK(fake)

I was not making a comment on the accuracy or otherwise of figures.

Rather, the delivery of the message.

My guess, you would be comfortable on the EGO thread.


LOL.

 

[kray192]

Re: EMR - Emerald Oil and Gas

NPV means the net present value according to current prices, sure i can take future prices into account, which one would you like me to take? the value of gas in the year 3000? where IT MIGHT be worth millions per cubic foot?

Secondly where on earth did you pull the comment about EGO from, because I'm simply presenting a fair argument that doesn't suit you, you are going to class me as an EMR downramper for EGO? Well guess what I own 100% EMR and no EGO or any other stock, I just like to give a true info on the company to others, people are smart enough to see the positives in the company without you painting it for them.

 

[bhutos]

Re: EMR - Emerald Oil and Gas

Your figure is misleading, try not to use the in ground value of the resource since you do have the cost of extracting it, learn NPV.
Using NPV of 20% profit margin:
The true gas value to company is $AU2.19 million, and the condensate is about $AU 240k (Using $80 per barrel for calculation sake). Thats about $2.4 million, thats about 2.4 cents per share.
The NPV can be lower since this well isn't that big so less economies of scale, so just take the 20% as a rough figure.
However remember that energy prices can rise in the future so with any rise the NPV would also rise correspondingly.



I just really really hate people always using in ground value of the resource.

Thats fair, the only extraction costs I know though are saudi crude which is 8.6% and irrelevent. I found some texas gas production costs which were small - in the region of 40k/yr. Not enough to get close to your figure. If you could let me know what production costs you are using with any references that would help greatly. You will notice in my figures I acknowledge the price is probably inflated, I need and want more information - I have no interest in providing false or ramping data. I'm a bit of a data nerd and I want to get as close a figure as possible. I have a note in my diary here from two days ago to find out production costs, so i'm not wholly ignorant of the argument , just information poor. I have actually emailed EMR to find out roughly what they will be getting for the gas. I'll endeavour to find out production costs as well.

 

[zt3000]

Re: EMR - Emerald Oil and Gas

There will probably be an announcement made today, about 2pm EST giving an update ... like every other thursday thus far .. lol

Target Depth is probably deeper than they thought IMO, otherwise we probably would have heard something by now.

Waiting game I guess

 

[moneymajix]

Re: EMR - Emerald Oil and Gas

Re yesterday's ann. Not far from TD NOW.

I guess most are expecting news by Monday.

Current Sp at 25c (up .05c).


Re our parnters:
EGO, is up over 15%.
ARQ is up 2c.

 

[Trader Paul]

Re: EMR - Emerald Oil and Gas



Hi folks,

EMR ... more astrostuff, ahead:

03102007 ... positive spotlight on EMR ...

12-15102007 ... minor news ... flat-to-down trading???

19102007 ... minor cycle ... finances???

24-26102007 ... sharp negative price move ???

02112007 ... minor cycle here

16-19112007 ... 2 cycles ... positive finances ???

03122007 ... positive cycle

04122007 ... negative cycle - same price as 24-26102007??

07122007 ... positive news expected here

14122007 ... minor cycle

27122007 - 02012008 ... 2 significant and negative cycles ?

07012008 ... minor and positive ... finances ...???

14012008 ... positive news expected here

30012008 ... positive cycle offset by the next
negative cycle, as described, below:

28012008 - 01022008 ... VERY NEGATIVE aspects here,finances?

14-15022008 ... news expected here ???

22-25022008 ... 2 positive cycles here ... news expected,
finance-related ...???


29022008 ... minor and difficult aspect here.

happy days

paul



=====

 

[moneymajix]

Re: EMR - Emerald Oil and Gas

Just a short post to keep the ball rolling (or the oil flowing) on the EMR thread.

Quiet in here.

Some may have sold.

Ann. yesterday was not well received by the market and sp fell to 18c.

Drilling continues. Do we know anything yet?

Still holding.

Sp atm 19.5c. May prove to be a bargain?

:bananasmi

 

[bhutos]

Re: EMR - Emerald Oil and Gas

Just a short post to keep the ball rolling (or the oil flowing) on the EMR thread.

Quiet in here.

Some may have sold.

Ann. yesterday was not well received by the market and sp fell to 18c.

Drilling continues. Do we know anything yet?

Still holding.

Sp atm 19.5c. May prove to be a bargain?

:bananasmi

I sold.

It will be interesting to see what it does from here. Some early buying from bargain hunters.
Yesterday people had the closest thing to evidence that the risk of Valentine being a failure was rising.
Stokes is worth about 30c (Which doesn't bode well for the options if nothing else comes in and SB isn't a certain play as it is.). A lot of people are probably looking at selling now and buying back in after Valentine.
Confidence seems to be back up though, clawed back a lot of what it lost.

 

[doctorj]

Re: EMR - Emerald Oil and Gas

Yesterday people had the closest thing to evidence that the risk of Valentine being a failure was rising.

The announcement yesterday that drilling had progressed beyond the revised estimation of the top of the sandstone formation but was yet to find anything but dolomite was a blow, but there was still another ~200m worth of drilling as at 0700 yesterday before Valentine is a write off. It's probable that the target rocks exist down there, but the question remains (a) will they drill deep enough to find it and (b) if it's much deeper than forecast, will it still be sealed at that depth?

 

[jtb]

Re: EMR - Emerald Oil and Gas

I sold.

It will be interesting to see what it does from here. Some early buying from bargain hunters.
Yesterday people had the closest thing to evidence that the risk of Valentine being a failure was rising.
Stokes is worth about 30c (Which doesn't bode well for the options if nothing else comes in and SB isn't a certain play as it is.). A lot of people are probably looking at selling now and buying back in after Valentine.
Confidence seems to be back up though, clawed back a lot of what it lost.

Yeah bit of an anti-climax wasn't it.

Smelly calcrete by the sound of it - roll on Stokes Bay and Eve Rose.