Elon Musk

[bluekelah]

What is Nokias market share now? What was it before? Why didn’t they make the jump and compete with Apple and Samsung?

Time will tell, but when it comes to Ev’s there is a lot of factors that give Tesla a major advantage eg their charging networks and self driving software just to name two.

I mean will BMW be considered a premium brand if their vehicles can’t drive them selves and it’s hard to find charging locations?

Tesla is well ahead of the other brands when it comes to full self driving, they are years ahead in development, will the others even be able to catch up?

Despite years of touting full self driving capabilities and charging some customers for the "FSD" add on, Tesla is still stuck at Level 2 Automous which they will probably be stuck for a while with a history of so many crashes.

Why Is Tesla’s Full Self-Driving Only Level 2 Autonomous?

The beta of Tesla’s Full Self Driving isn’t exactly the completely autonomous driving we were promised, and never will be according to recently revealed emails. Have early adopters been fooled?

www.forbes.com

Its always fun to watch the footage of the Tesla fireballs and accidents:

Watch: Tesla In Autopilot Crashes Into North Carolina Police Vehicle​

Tesla Model S Plaid reportedly catches fire in Pennsylvania​

More recently massive recall...
[The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration has issued a recall notice for 53,822 Tesla vehicles with the FSD Beta software as it may allow vehicles to roll through an all-way stop intersection.]

US authority issues recall for Tesla's rolling stop feature

Tesla has agreed to remove the controversial 'rolling stop' feature from its Full Self-Driving Beta after meeting with a US government agency.

www.carexpert.com.au

Charging stations are not that big a differentiating factor as most EV adopters are using the EVs in mostly urban scenarios, not cross country runs. In time there will likely be more charging stations for other brands as we are seeing now in many urban centers that are seeing increased EV adoption.

Market share wise lets look at the biggest EV market China first, this is the 2021 sales record with BYD outselling Tesla by about 50%:

2021 EV deliveries in China by the numbers: How some of the market's major players grew

A breakdown of 2021 EV deliveries from some of the growing and best known automakers currently developing vehicles in China.

electrek.co

Second largest market Europe, VW Group getting 25% of market sales vs 13.9% of Tesla, which has seen their market leading percentage of 31.1%in 2019 shrink down, perhaps it can fight back with gigafactory Berlin. :

2021 (Full Year) Europe: Best-Selling Electric Car Models and Brands - Car Sales Statistics

In 2021, Tesla and Volkswagen were the best-selling electric car brands in Europe with the Model 3, Renault Zoe, and ID.3 the top-selling models.

www.best-selling-cars.com

And lets look at globally including north american sales, Tesla still has that 14%, which granted has changed much since 2019 where it had 16% of global market share:

Competition Heats Up For Tesla In EV Market

Tesla and Volkswagen are the leading EV producers. China has the largest EV market. What other companies are vying for market share? Read to learn more.

www.forbes.com

[Global EV Market Share
Tesla leads all others, selling slightly over 936,000 units in 2021. This gave the company a market share of nearly 14%. Close behind Tesla was the VW Group, with just over 11% of the market last year. Chinese-based BYD was third (9%); followed by GM (7.6%); Stellantis, an Amsterdam-based company (6%); Hyundai Motor (5%); and BMW Group (4.8%). Mercedes and Toyota were in the top 12. Ford was noticeably absent.]

Going forward the EV sector is likely to grow more globally. However I believe with FORD/RIVIAN with their EV trucks and every other major car maker jumping onto the EV bandwagon, I believe the EV space will get increasingly even more crowded with the bigger players. We can expect more competition and with that likely some level of margin compression at Tesla, or they may maintain margins but lose market share.

Valuation wise, without tech bubble and all the autonomous driving hype, I believe Tesla valuation should come back down to probably PE of 25-30.

 

[Value Collector]

Despite years of touting full self driving capabilities and charging some customers for the "FSD" add on, Tesla is still stuck at Level 2 Automous which they will probably be stuck for a while with a history of so many crashes.

Why Is Tesla’s Full Self-Driving Only Level 2 Autonomous?

The beta of Tesla’s Full Self Driving isn’t exactly the completely autonomous driving we were promised, and never will be according to recently revealed emails. Have early adopters been fooled?

www.forbes.com

Its always fun to watch the footage of the Tesla fireballs and accidents:

Watch: Tesla In Autopilot Crashes Into North Carolina Police Vehicle​

Tesla Model S Plaid reportedly catches fire in Pennsylvania​

More recently massive recall...
[The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration has issued a recall notice for 53,822 Tesla vehicles with the FSD Beta software as it may allow vehicles to roll through an all-way stop intersection.]

US authority issues recall for Tesla's rolling stop feature

Tesla has agreed to remove the controversial 'rolling stop' feature from its Full Self-Driving Beta after meeting with a US government agency.

www.carexpert.com.au

Charging stations are not that big a differentiating factor as most EV adopters are using the EVs in mostly urban scenarios, not cross country runs. In time there will likely be more charging stations for other brands as we are seeing now in many urban centers that are seeing increased EV adoption.

Market share wise lets look at the biggest EV market China first, this is the 2021 sales record with BYD outselling Tesla by about 50%:

2021 EV deliveries in China by the numbers: How some of the market's major players grew

A breakdown of 2021 EV deliveries from some of the growing and best known automakers currently developing vehicles in China.

electrek.co

View attachment 140980

Second largest market Europe, VW Group getting 25% of market sales vs 13.9% of Tesla, which has seen their market leading percentage of 31.1%in 2019 shrink down, perhaps it can fight back with gigafactory Berlin. :

2021 (Full Year) Europe: Best-Selling Electric Car Models and Brands - Car Sales Statistics

In 2021, Tesla and Volkswagen were the best-selling electric car brands in Europe with the Model 3, Renault Zoe, and ID.3 the top-selling models.

www.best-selling-cars.com

View attachment 140981

And lets look at globally including north american sales, Tesla still has that 14%, which granted has changed much since 2019 where it had 16% of global market share:

Competition Heats Up For Tesla In EV Market

Tesla and Volkswagen are the leading EV producers. China has the largest EV market. What other companies are vying for market share? Read to learn more.

www.forbes.com

[Global EV Market Share
Tesla leads all others, selling slightly over 936,000 units in 2021. This gave the company a market share of nearly 14%. Close behind Tesla was the VW Group, with just over 11% of the market last year. Chinese-based BYD was third (9%); followed by GM (7.6%); Stellantis, an Amsterdam-based company (6%); Hyundai Motor (5%); and BMW Group (4.8%). Mercedes and Toyota were in the top 12. Ford was noticeably absent.]

Going forward the EV sector is likely to grow more globally. However I believe with FORD/RIVIAN with their EV trucks and every other major car maker jumping onto the EV bandwagon, I believe the EV space will get increasingly even more crowded with the bigger players. We can expect more competition and with that likely some level of margin compression at Tesla, or they may maintain margins but lose market share.

Valuation wise, without tech bubble and all the autonomous driving hype, I believe Tesla valuation should come back down to probably PE of 25-30.

I wouldn’t call it stuck, There is constant improvements, I have had my car for nearly 3 years and it’s self driving features have been steadily improving, as have the full self driving mode which has been rolling out to more and more customers as part of testing.

But that’s the point isn’t it, Tesla is years ahead of BMW and the rest that haven’t even started yet.

Do you own an EV, I guess not, because I can tell you charging stations are a huge factor when it comes to long distance driving and are essential for a car to be considered premium.

 

[Trader X]

Tesla is years ahead of BMW and the rest that haven’t even started yet.

This assumes that each automaker needs to develop their own FSD tech from scratch to compete with Tesla. Instead they can license this tech from other companies who have developed self-driving solutions like NVIDIA. Given this, it's probably a moot point to declare Tesla is years ahead of others in this respect and therefore has a huge competitive advantage over other EV makers. Remains to be seen what percentage of EV owners will embrace FSD and be willing to pay a premium for it.

 

[JohnDe]

Tesla’s full-self driving is more than vaporware—and it’s one reason Tesla stock is worth more than three times that of Toyota.

Beta testers are, essentially, Tesla owners who have earned the latest version of the software by having the right combination of cars and driving safety scores, along with a desire to test the system.

Our tester got the beta version early, soon after its release in September 2021, and he says it’s improved a lot since the initial version. Tesla said during its fourth-quarter report that there were about 60,000 beta testers helping Tesla refine the system.

The potential for FSD is one reason Tesla is a trillion-dollar company, roughly 3.5 times the value ofToyota Motor (TM).

Tesla's 'Full Self Driving' Is Getting Better. Why That's Good for the Stock.

We took a ride in a full self-driving Tesla Thursday and came away impressed.

www.barrons.com

 

[JohnDe]

Analysts at Morgan Stanley have said that in the long-term, Tesla Insurance may pose a threat to the ~$260 billion US auto insurance industry, following the company’s expansion of its new insurance product that uses real-time driving behaviour data.

Tesla will no doubt have superior data on their own cars, but also addressed that the real-time feedback loop on driving behaviour, that the insurance offering contains, could result in safer driving, which could lead to lower premiums and a higher take-up rate.

“We will monitor TSLA’s underwriting results closely as it gains more traction”, the analysts said.

In addition, the report highlighted how direct-to-consumer (DTC) distribution has become a proven strategy in taking market share, and going forward analysts expect DTC coupled with embedded insurance to become the “new wave” of personal insurance distribution.

Meanwhile, analysts said that Tesla as a top 10 auto insurance carrier is not a “wild expectation”, adding that insurance premium forecasts for Tesla yield ~$9.6b by 2031, assuming fairly conservative take-up rates by Tesla car owners.

Tesla Insurance could pose long-term threat to US auto insurance industry: Morgan Stanley - Reinsurance News

Analysts at Morgan Stanley have said that in the long-term, Tesla Insurance may pose a threat to the ~$260 billion US auto insurance industry, following

www.reinsurancene.ws

 

[divs4ever]

Despite years of touting full self driving capabilities and charging some customers for the "FSD" add on, Tesla is still stuck at Level 2 Automous which they will probably be stuck for a while with a history of so many crashes.

Why Is Tesla’s Full Self-Driving Only Level 2 Autonomous?

The beta of Tesla’s Full Self Driving isn’t exactly the completely autonomous driving we were promised, and never will be according to recently revealed emails. Have early adopters been fooled?

www.forbes.com

Its always fun to watch the footage of the Tesla fireballs and accidents:

Watch: Tesla In Autopilot Crashes Into North Carolina Police Vehicle​

Tesla Model S Plaid reportedly catches fire in Pennsylvania​

More recently massive recall...
[The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration has issued a recall notice for 53,822 Tesla vehicles with the FSD Beta software as it may allow vehicles to roll through an all-way stop intersection.]

US authority issues recall for Tesla's rolling stop feature

Tesla has agreed to remove the controversial 'rolling stop' feature from its Full Self-Driving Beta after meeting with a US government agency.

www.carexpert.com.au

Charging stations are not that big a differentiating factor as most EV adopters are using the EVs in mostly urban scenarios, not cross country runs. In time there will likely be more charging stations for other brands as we are seeing now in many urban centers that are seeing increased EV adoption.

Market share wise lets look at the biggest EV market China first, this is the 2021 sales record with BYD outselling Tesla by about 50%:

2021 EV deliveries in China by the numbers: How some of the market's major players grew

A breakdown of 2021 EV deliveries from some of the growing and best known automakers currently developing vehicles in China.

electrek.co

View attachment 140980

Second largest market Europe, VW Group getting 25% of market sales vs 13.9% of Tesla, which has seen their market leading percentage of 31.1%in 2019 shrink down, perhaps it can fight back with gigafactory Berlin. :

2021 (Full Year) Europe: Best-Selling Electric Car Models and Brands - Car Sales Statistics

In 2021, Tesla and Volkswagen were the best-selling electric car brands in Europe with the Model 3, Renault Zoe, and ID.3 the top-selling models.

www.best-selling-cars.com

View attachment 140981

And lets look at globally including north american sales, Tesla still has that 14%, which granted has changed much since 2019 where it had 16% of global market share:

Competition Heats Up For Tesla In EV Market

Tesla and Volkswagen are the leading EV producers. China has the largest EV market. What other companies are vying for market share? Read to learn more.

www.forbes.com

[Global EV Market Share
Tesla leads all others, selling slightly over 936,000 units in 2021. This gave the company a market share of nearly 14%. Close behind Tesla was the VW Group, with just over 11% of the market last year. Chinese-based BYD was third (9%); followed by GM (7.6%); Stellantis, an Amsterdam-based company (6%); Hyundai Motor (5%); and BMW Group (4.8%). Mercedes and Toyota were in the top 12. Ford was noticeably absent.]

Going forward the EV sector is likely to grow more globally. However I believe with FORD/RIVIAN with their EV trucks and every other major car maker jumping onto the EV bandwagon, I believe the EV space will get increasingly even more crowded with the bigger players. We can expect more competition and with that likely some level of margin compression at Tesla, or they may maintain margins but lose market share.

Valuation wise, without tech bubble and all the autonomous driving hype, I believe Tesla valuation should come back down to probably PE of 25-30.

ummm since the flaming one was mostly likely an ELECTRICAL fire .. why were they using water NOT foam ??

just asking

they may as well just slipped down the convenience store and bought marshmallows and popcorn

 

[Value Collector]

This assumes that each automaker needs to develop their own FSD tech from scratch to compete with Tesla. Instead they can license this tech from other companies who have developed self-driving solutions like NVIDIA. Given this, it's probably a moot point to declare Tesla is years ahead of others in this respect and therefore has a huge competitive advantage over other EV makers. Remains to be seen what percentage of EV owners will embrace FSD and be willing to pay a premium for it.

You should have been on the board of directors for Nokia and Motorola, you could have let them know that all they had to do to keep up with Apple and Samsung was License a few bits of tech and they will be back on top again.

 

[Trader X]

You should have been on the board of directors for Nokia and Motorola, you could have let them know that all they had to do to keep up with Apple and Samsung was License a few bits of tech and they will be back on top again.

Yet another false analogy and emotive jibe. For the record, I actually like Tesla EV product now, the build quality has improved and the designs appealing if not the price and unknown future depreciation. I don't own an EV and unlikely to until the price becomes more competitive with ICE and hybrid cars. When I do enter the market for an EV my choice won't be based on brand allegiance, desire to reduce my carbon footprint, Elon's reputation or if I can fall asleep until my car arrives at the desired location with 100% safety assured. Assessment of value, reliability, customer satisfaction and other factors at the time will determine my purchase decision and that may even end up being a used Tesla.

 

[Value Collector]

Yet another false analogy and emotive jibe. For the record, I actually like Tesla EV product now, the build quality has improved and the designs appealing if not the price and unknown future depreciation. I don't own an EV and unlikely to until the price becomes more competitive with ICE and hybrid cars. When I do enter the market for an EV my choice won't be based on brand allegiance, desire to reduce my carbon footprint, Elon's reputation or if I can fall asleep until my car arrives at the desired location with 100% safety assured. Assessment of value, reliability, customer satisfaction and other factors at the time will determine my purchase decision and that may even end up being a used Tesla.

I don’t have any brand allegiance either, I would be interested to look at the Apple car if that becomes a thing when it’s time to replace the Tesla.

But out of all those things you suggested you care about, Tesla is currently the top dog.

When it comes to self driving, having drive. Sydney to Brisbane multiple times on self drive the whole way, I can tell you it makes road trips a lot more enjoyable, but I understand you Experience I the subject is pretty much Nil, so we will just have to wait until you have some Experience with ev’s before we can take your word for what matters and what doesn’t to ev owners.

 

[Trader X]

But out of all those things you suggested you care about, Tesla is currently the top dog.

Certainly not customer satisfaction based on surveys, although improving, and it's unknown how Tesla EVs will compare value and feature wise with the tidal wave of new EVs to hit the market over the next 5 years.

Auto pilot still requires you to be alert and ready to take control right? When I use radar cruise control on the highway, I have lane departure warning and correction, collision avoidance and EBS but have to hold onto the wheel and be alert. So not much effort required to cruise on the highway for me either.

 

[JohnDe]

Tesla Tops Consumer Reports 2022 Owner Satisfaction Ratings​

Tesla wound up on top of the charts,

Tesla Tops Consumer Reports 2022 Owner Satisfaction Ratings — But Mustang Mach-E Top EV - The Detroit Bureau

Tesla ranks tops in owner satisfaction, despite its below average reliability rating. Tesla’s win underscores that reliability doesn’t necessarily bring owner happiness. Other factors affect how much you’ll love your car. TheDetroitBureau,com has an in-depth look at the numbers.

www.thedetroitbureau.com

 

[Value Collector]

Certainly not customer satisfaction based on surveys, although improving, and it's unknown how Tesla EVs will compare value and feature wise with the tidal wave of new EVs to hit the market over the next 5 years.

Auto pilot still requires you to be alert and ready to take control right? When I use radar cruise control on the highway, I have lane departure warning and correction, collision avoidance and EBS but have to hold onto the wheel and be alert. So not much effort required to cruise on the highway for me either.

The auto pilot as it stands now in Australia will drive along the freeway, over take slower cars, change lanes as needed to navigate, and merge off the freeway, stop at red lights and stop signs.

You have to rest your hand on the wheel (or your knee if you like) and be ready to take control if needed, but it will drive from my freeway on ramp in Brisbane, through the Gold Coast and all the way to Ballina (that’s about 3.5hours)where it will merge off the freeway where I usually stop for my first 10min charge/pee break without any intervention from me.

So it’s a lot different to your lane departure warning and collision avoidance.

 

[Trader X]

So it’s a lot different to your lane departure warning and collision avoidance.

No doubt less driving attention and intervention required. But then, for let's say ~$30,000 extra, you would expect more refinement in the driving experience. The much lower cost of ownership of an EV will be very compelling as the entry level price comes down, the main attraction of an EV to me. Unfortunately, it seems we are still many years away from approaching price parity with top end ICE and hybrid cars in comparable size categories. Would I rather drive a Model Y than a turbo CX-5 Akera? Sure, but not for an extra $30k.

 

[Value Collector]

No doubt less driving attention and intervention required. But then, for let's say ~$30,000 extra, you would expect more refinement in the driving experience. The much lower cost of ownership of an EV will be very compelling as the entry level price comes down, the main attraction of an EV to me. Unfortunately, it seems we are still many years away from approaching price parity with top end ICE and hybrid cars in comparable size categories. Would I rather drive a Model Y than a turbo CX-5 Akera? Sure, but not for an extra $30k.

The car will save you more than $30k over its life and have a higher scrap value at the end due to the battery, so we probably shouldn’t expect price parity.

It’s a bit like LED light bulbs are about 8 times more expensive than the old original incandescent bulbs, but they last 20 times longer and use 4 times less electricity, so it’s worth it.

When you factor in all the perks of a Tesla, plus the savings in fuel and maintenance, then paying a bit extra is worth it, and waiting for perfect price parity would probably be a mistake.

 

[JohnDe]

No doubt less driving attention and intervention required. But then, for let's say ~$30,000 extra, you would expect more refinement in the driving experience. The much lower cost of ownership of an EV will be very compelling as the entry level price comes down, the main attraction of an EV to me. Unfortunately, it seems we are still many years away from approaching price parity with top end ICE and hybrid cars in comparable size categories. Would I rather drive a Model Y than a turbo CX-5 Akera? Sure, but not for an extra $30k.

 

[Trader X]

View attachment 141019
View attachment 141020

Non optioned entry level model, false comparison.

 

[JohnDe]

Non optioned entry level model, false comparison.

List the features & compare

 

[Trader X]

List the features & compare

I did and the features don't compare as expected since the Model Y shown is the entry level model. It's a moot point anyway as I would never spend $70k+ on a depreciating liability like a car, EV or ICE.

 

[JohnDe]

I did and the features don't compare as expected since the Model Y shown is the entry level model. It's a moot point anyway as I would never spend $70k+ on a depreciating liability like a car, EV or ICE.

What features are you talking about? The only things I can see that your Turbo CX-5 has that the Tesla doesn't is a turbo engine and a transmission. Plus it is outdated before you even buy it, Japan has canceled Turbo engine production for the CX-5.

Model Y | Tesla

Model Y is a fully electric, mid-size SUV with unparalleled protection and versatile cargo space.

www.tesla.com

 

[CityIndex]

Reports are suggesting that Elon Musk has sold Tesla shares, but he also just tweeted that "no further Tesla sales planned after today".

All trading carries risk, but it should be interesting to see how TSLA reacts when US markets re-open as the stock has been hovering below its 200-day MA for the last two days.