Elliott Wave - Do you use it?

[tech/a]

Seems to me you have little idea of what you are saying tech/a, but then again what do you expect from the un initiated...... amatuer

Feel free to add your expertise.Constructive critisism is always helpful.If of course the quality of discussion isnt below you.
You maybe suprised by what I have to say.
Addition to the thread of expert comment is always welcomed.
Look forward to yours machi.

Your predictive analysis ability to pre empt what I'm about to say is indeed impressive.

 

[BentRod]

Don't forget to post charts along with your expert analysis Machi like the others do.

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Tech,

Its not something you can get your head around in 10 mins or by reading a book (At least the first time).

Yes I have discovered this.

I was similar in view to Bobby some years ago.Was just voodoo and smoke and mirrors.Couldnt for the life of me work out why a wave count would change.

I have that view too in the past, but now I don't think so.

Once you understand how and why they can and do alter it all fits.
THERE ARE RULES.

Its not for everyone and takes time (lots of it) to even get a handle on--- (Where I am)---even this level of proficiency is of great value to the trader with the ability to at least know where you are in a trade.

It's the projections I am interested in.

Thanks
Snake

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Snake,
There are probably 3 schools of thought; Prechter & Neely being the major two around the world and Miner. I reside with Miner as it suits me, Mags and WP use Prechter. There is no right or wrong in this, just personality type. I have studied Prechter and I have used the EWI services for 4 years and continue to do so today. I have a fairly good idea on the pro's & con's of each. There is no doubt that Prechter is the master and has brought EW so far its quite amazing. However, within his staff he has a gentleman called Jeff Kennedy who is very much a Miner trader.

My opinion is that Miner offer a more practical approach and is probably worth investigating if you're looking at it from a trading perspective. He does not need to know the larger count to generate a trade, although knowing the larger count can help when patterns are not perfectly clear. If the pattern is perfectly clear, then a trade can result as can a profit.
Take a look at the following chart - Tabcorp (TAH). There is a clear 5-wave pattern moving higher out of a base. Whether you know what the larger count is or whether you caught this move up, there is one overriding fact, and that is it will be followed by a decline and that decline will be a deep retracement, probably travelling 50.0% to 61.8% the length of the advance. This overriding fact enable a trade, regardless of the larger count. This is what Miner is about. How did we know the trend was going to terminate where it did? Again, we put the pieces of the puzzle together using a variety of methods. We had a fibonacci extension level, we had the all-time highs and more importantly we had a micro triangle that formed "under" those major highs. Experience says that such a triangle will break to the downside. When these elements align themselves with an Elliott Wave pattern, then you have a trade. Do I care what the larger pattern is for TAH? Would it have mattered? A trade is a trade. A profit is a profit.

Thanks Nick that was some info I was after.
As long as the micro waves indicate a trading signal - pattern approaching - that is all that matters? the larger waves could be used to confirm?

Snake

 

[tech/a]

Snake.

Your either an insomniac,shift worker or live in Antarctica.
You post at the most diverse times!

On larger timeframes.
They do let you know where you are in the overall move of the instrument being traded.
IE an end of a wave 5 which is the end of a wave 3 in a higher timeframe.
Hence you would be looking for a wave 1 entry in a final wave 5 in a higher timeframe.
confluence of projections is of great importance.

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Something else to ponder is that price is also seemingly corruptable. How?

What is price? The value at which a trade was transacted. What are trades transacted in? Currency. What do currencies do relative to one another? Shift.

This is why Prechter invented what he calls the "stable currency benchmark". To try and elliminate fluctuations in the USD from distorting wave counts on the S&P500/DJIA.

The ASX Gorilla.

Interesting

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Feel free to add your expertise.Constructive critisism is always helpful.If of course the quality of discussion isnt below you.
You maybe suprised by what I have to say.
Addition to the thread of expert comment is always welcomed.
Look forward to yours machi.

Your predictive analysis ability to pre empt what I'm about to say is indeed impressive.

I agree with Tech Machi. Your expertise would be appreciated.

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Snake.

Your either an insomniac,shift worker or live in Antarctica.
You post at the most diverse times!

On larger timeframes.
They do let you know where you are in the overall move of the instrument being traded.
IE an end of a wave 5 which is the end of a wave 3 in a higher timeframe.
Hence you would be looking for a wave 1 entry in a final wave 5 in a higher timeframe.
confluence of projections is of great importance.

Ha,ha,
Yes insomniac for sure. I can't go to bed before 2am (Japan- 2hours behind), then even that is a struggle. I work part-time usually 5 until 9pm get home after 10 pm then analyse and unwind etc. I wake up after the open and usually focus on the afternoon session or set orders the night before. I am now looking at using my night time to trade FOREX so a lot of chart watching while chatting on ASF. Morning Forex Australian time is not too profitable compared to the Japan, European sessions, and American morning sessions. So I am trying to use my time to the best of my ability incorporating that insomnia into it.

Once a great man suffered a life of insomnia and to beat it he did things instead of laying in bed thinking about it. I am begininng to employ his way of thinking. So EW is now consuming some of my time.

Thanks for that comment on the different timeframes.
Snake

 

[Kauri]

I am only starting out in E/W and have so far found that projections are usefull when different degree wave projections coincide giving you an approximate area where trend change is likely. Combined with a confirming reversal pattern and/or volume characteristics it can give you an early entry point in a trend change or warning to tighten stops. Time projections I have so far found less reliable, possibly as I have not delved too deeply into them.
Entered short into a trade this morning on 3 price wave 5 coinciding and a reversal pattern forming. Time will tell if it works out as planned.

 

[machi]

Feel free to add your expertise.Constructive critisism is always helpful. If of course the quality of discussion isn’t below you.
You maybe surprised by what I have to say.
Addition to the thread of expert comment is always welcomed.
Look forward to yours machi.

Your predictive analysis ability to pre empt what I'm about to say is indeed impressive.

You truly live up to your reputation as bird brain as per your avatar tech/a.......
Sometimes I get the feeling you and Radge must be have a bit of a deal running.

Re your comments regarding Prechter in the "What is Technical Analysis" thread, one word: Garbage. You are obviously echoing Radges opinion here because you would not be smart enough to have done your own investigations.

Prechter has a big reputation and already has the runs on the board unlike yourself and Radge. I have lost count over the years how many accurate forecasts Prechter has made. Covering a multitude of markets lasting 30 years. These have ranged from predicting the bullmarket of the 1980’s 2 years before it actually started(giving precise targets and timeframe to go with it ), not to mention when it would end(1.5 weeks before it did-1987 crash) Gold peak in 1980 almost to the day, the DJIA and Nasdaq, peaks in 2000, and the ensuing bear markets just to name a few.(Just check out Timers Digest) Sure he got the Deflationary crash scenario wrong in the 1990’s and 2002, but making long term forecasts is very hard.

He is "Mr Elliott Wave" and was the one responsible for reviving the idea from obscurity 30 years ago when there were but a few "closet" practioners such as Frost, Collins and Bolton. The guy can trade too, winning the US trading championship in 1984 and breaking the record doing it. Other EW practioners are not in the same class both as forecasters or traders. Most traders like you have no idea how to trade the market in the short term let alone the longer term. You are just full of dribble. You’re a nutter Tech/a. You are getting worse too, maybe the market is making you this way?? Perhaps you lost too much $$$ in the last few weeks?? Perhaps TT is not all that it’s cracked up to be??


Now if someone out there really wanted to learn the nuts and bolts of Elliott what would you do?? Listen the “guru” like tech/a??? Think hard people, I think it would be much wiser to go to the experts, don’t ya think?? Don’t let the likes of Tech/a bluff you into otherwise. >>>>>>>>>

 

[Porper]

You truly live up to your reputation as bird brain as per your avatar tech/a.......
Sometimes I get the feeling you and Radge must be have a bit of a deal running.

Re your comments regarding Prechter in the "What is Technical Analysis" thread, one word: Garbage. You are obviously echoing Radges opinion here because you would not be smart enough to have done your own investigations.

Prechter has a big reputation and already has the runs on the board unlike yourself and Radge. I have lost count over the years how many accurate forecasts Prechter has made. Covering a multitude of markets lasting 30 years. These have ranged from predicting the bullmarket of the 1980’s 2 years before it actually started(giving precise targets and timeframe to go with it ), not to mention when it would end(1.5 weeks before it did-1987 crash) Gold peak in 1980 almost to the day, the DJIA and Nasdaq, peaks in 2000, and the ensuing bear markets just to name a few.(Just check out Timers Digest) Sure he got the Deflationary crash scenario wrong in the 1990’s and 2002, but making long term forecasts is very hard.

He is "Mr Elliott Wave" and was the one responsible for reviving the idea from obscurity 30 years ago when there were but a few "closet" practioners such as Frost, Collins and Bolton. The guy can trade too, winning the US trading championship in 1984 and breaking the record doing it. Other EW practioners are not in the same class both as forecasters or traders. Most traders like you have no idea how to trade the market in the short term let alone the longer term. You are just full of dribble. You’re a nutter Tech/a. You are getting worse too, maybe the market is making you this way?? Perhaps you lost too much $$$ in the last few weeks?? Perhaps TT is not all that it’s cracked up to be??


Now if someone out there really wanted to learn the nuts and bolts of Elliott what would you do?? Listen the “guru” like tech/a??? Think hard people, I think it would be much wiser to go to the experts, don’t ya think?? Don’t let the likes of Tech/a bluff you into otherwise. >>>>>>>>>

Machi,

You are doing yourself no favours by being so antagonistic.If you have something to offer by way of your expertise, then please share.

Tech has always said he is a beginner like a lot of us here.

Nick Radge isn't a beginner, and it takes the biscuit you trying to say he isn't any good.I'm pretty sure you aren't a member of the Chartist so you are in no position to judge how proficient he or any of us are at Elliot wave for that matter.

Try giving something rather than ridiculing everybody.

 

[theasxgorilla]

Prechter has a big reputation and already has the runs on the board unlike yourself and Radge. I have lost count over the years how many accurate forecasts Prechter has made.

I used to be an Elliott Wave International subscriber.

I think that Prechter is brilliant. But lets get somethings straight. He's a theorist. Yes, I know what you want to say. "Oh, but he won that trading championship with a record 444% return in 5 months". Yeah, he did. But have you seen the FNN interview with him after that? I reckon it nearly killed him. He practically confessed to burning himself out. My guess is that trading (practicing) is not Prechters modus operandi.

So in response to your question about going to an expert, I don't think I'd recommend people who want to become EW practitioners modelling themselves on Prechter. The man sat on the sidelines during the greatest bull run in recorded history. I don't see how that mentality helps a trader.

 

[tech/a]

You truly live up to your reputation as bird brain as per your avatar tech/a.......
Sometimes I get the feeling you and Radge must be have a bit of a deal running.

Re your comments regarding Prechter in the "What is Technical Analysis" thread, one word: Garbage. You are obviously echoing Radges opinion here because you would not be smart enough to have done your own investigations.

No not so.But believe as you wish.

But on Radge.
He is liciensed by ASIC. Ive met him he is straight as a die,pulls no punches,Not a great lover of Duck,knows his stuff and made me a lot of $$$s from his teachings and MUSINGS.
Thats how I've found him and as such I'll give credit where its due, best value Ive seen by a country mile.

I'll repeat that---Radge doesnt like DUCK

Prechter has a big reputation and already has the runs on the board unlike yourself and Radge. I have lost count over the years how many accurate forecasts Prechter has made. Covering a multitude of markets lasting 30 years. These have ranged from predicting the bullmarket of the 1980’s 2 years before it actually started(giving precise targets and timeframe to go with it ), not to mention when it would end(1.5 weeks before it did-1987 crash) Gold peak in 1980 almost to the day, the DJIA and Nasdaq, peaks in 2000, and the ensuing bear markets just to name a few.(Just check out Timers Digest) Sure he got the Deflationary crash scenario wrong in the 1990’s and 2002, but making long term forecasts is very hard.

He is "Mr Elliott Wave" and was the one responsible for reviving the idea from obscurity 30 years ago when there were but a few "closet" practioners such as Frost, Collins and Bolton. The guy can trade too, winning the US trading championship in 1984 and breaking the record doing it. Other EW practioners are not in the same class both as forecasters or traders.

Agree in most part Prechters developed Elliot way beyond its beginnings.Dont know what all the fuss is about!
I'm certainly not in the league of Prechter and not close to Radge.

Most traders like you have no idea how to trade the market in the short term let alone the longer term. You are just full of dribble. You’re a nutter Tech/a. You are getting worse too, maybe the market is making you this way?? Perhaps you lost too much $$$ in the last few weeks?? Perhaps TT is not all that it’s cracked up to be??

In your opinion --fine.T/T will no doubt encounter market conditions outside that which it was designed on.At which time it will be re evaluated. T/T was never meant to be the "Mother" of all systems and was initialised in the hope it would help others taking the same path.---its done its job--still is.
Sure Ive lost some open profit---no big deal its just part of business.

Now if someone out there really wanted to learn the nuts and bolts of Elliott what would you do?? Listen the “guru” like tech/a??? Think hard people, I think it would be much wiser to go to the experts, don’t ya think?? Don’t let the likes of Tech/a bluff you into otherwise. >>>>>>>>>

Agree whole heartedly,the only "Teaching" I have done is a very brief general description for Julia who made the request directly.I have and will continue to demonstrate to the best of my ability aspects of Elliot which I find/have found useful.I'll say it again.
I'm no expert I have an understanding of Elliot.

machi
Why not add to the community?
Look forward to some of your findings.

Must Duck off to the bird Bath.

 

[TheRage]

Machi I think perhaps Tech was being very generous responding to your venom dripped banter. Perhaps you could convey you points with a little more sugar to them. By the way I have no value to add here as I am a fundamentalist. I would however like someones opinion on the wave count on the ASX 200. If this has been done I appologise for my inability to use the search function.

 

[machi]

I used to be an Elliott Wave International subscriber.
I reckon it nearly killed him. He practically confessed to burning himself out. My guess is that trading (practicing) is not Prechters modus operandi.

Yes your right it did burn him out, and he has openly said that (given that he did it part-time, it would most people), he also said that given the number of trades he made, he paid just as much in commisions as he made in profit. In other words it wasn't worth it..........

However he has also said out of necessity, if required, he would trade. As for sitting through bullmarket, fair enough. Elliotticians make mistakes, they also make stunning forecasts and trades. The bear market that followed the bull he called very well. The correction we have just had (in the last 2 weeks) was called very well, (which more than yourself, tech and others have done. (Apart from Magdoran of course)

So in response to your question about going to an expert, I don't think I'd recommend people who want to become EW practitioners modelling themselves on Prechter. The man sat on the sidelines during the greatest bull run in recorded history. I don't see how that mentality helps a trader

Knowing that in advance why would did you bother subscribing in the first place?
You obviously didn't learn much from your subscription did you?

 

[IFocus]

You truly live up to your reputation as bird brain as per your avatar tech/a.......
Sometimes I get the feeling you and Radge must be have a bit of a deal running.

Re your comments regarding Prechter in the "What is Technical Analysis" thread, one word: Garbage. You are obviously echoing Radges opinion here because you would not be smart enough to have done your own investigations.

Knowing that in advance why would did you bother subscribing in the first place?
You obviously didn't learn much from your subscription did you?

Hi Machi

I sincerely hope you do not take that emotional stance into the market

Kind Regards
Focus

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Machi,

If you have anything to add other than quoting and attacking feel free.

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

I am only starting out in E/W and have so far found that projections are usefull when different degree wave projections coincide giving you an approximate area where trend change is likely. Combined with a confirming reversal pattern and/or volume characteristics it can give you an early entry point in a trend change or warning to tighten stops. Time projections I have so far found less reliable, possibly as I have not delved too deeply into them.
Entered short into a trade this morning on 3 price wave 5 coinciding and a reversal pattern forming. Time will tell if it works out as planned.

Kauri,

Who is your influence with regard to EW?
Prechter or Miner or someone else maybe?

With regard to the corruption of time by price what are your thoughts on it?

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Re: Elliot Wave

Elliot wave is supposed to be a study of psychology, specifically greed. Therefore it's very subjective. If you could gauge the level of confidence/sentiment, you'd probably do better at labelling the wave counts yourself. I also find using advanced get troublesome and would rarely use it.

It seems to stand out with all TA that is subjective and open to interpretation. The post answered one question I had for the experts here.

Don't mind my critique here but it helps me think.

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Re: Elliott Wave- Do you use it?

A book I'm reading (Dynamic Trading by Miner) says Elliott Wave is only useful 50% of the time. Or rather Elliott Wave can only be applied about 50% of the time, and pretty much only the basic impulse and ABC correction is useful for trading. The author doesn't recommend EW software since they try to apply an EW count all of the time on anything, when there won't always be one, or one with any practical value.

I've been to a Profit Source seminar BTW, a few years ago. They also advocated EW back then. The strategy they suggested was shorting ABC corrections after the software had counted a five wave impulse.

Interesting coments swingstar. How have you found EW to trade with since reading the book?