Elliott Wave - Do you use it?

[Nick Radge]

Re: Elliott Wave- Do you use it?

bingk6,
Glad you liked the book. Dynamic Trading is also a very good book on EW. I use a lot of volume analysis as well which I think makes a very large difference. I did not have room to discuss this inmy book, but it is well worth using for confluence and ends of waves etc.

Do a google search for Advanced GET. I think its the best EW software out there and comes with various setups based on specific rules. ProfitSource uses the same algorithm as GET and I beleive the developer of ProfitSource actually originated from GET anyway. The scan functionailty of ProfitSource is better, but it lacks the minor labeling that GET has. The minor labelling opens many more opportunities for trades as well as getting a better idea of when the larger waves will complete. These packages aren't cheap and my personal opinion is the money is best spent with real time trading decisions which allow real time education.

I still believe eyeballing will be better for you in the longer term, especially knowing the volume nuances as well. Here is an example of AUW with clear volume attributes that are confirming a very good probability wave-iii high:

Aust Wealth Management (AUW)


Hope this helps,

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

How efficient is EW for determining the future?
There are two elements of concern: time and price.
If time is corruptable due to the action of price then how does using EW achieve accurate projections?

Using it from a trader's point of view I am interested in.

 

[Bobby]

How efficient is EW for determining the future?
There are two elements of concern: time and price.
If time is corruptable due to the action of price then how does using EW achieve accurate projections?

Using it from a trader's point of view I am interested in.

Greetings Snake,

I think its just a supplement of possiblity, in todays speed of internet trading, EW seems redundant.

Take care
Bob.

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Greetings Snake,

I think its just a supplement of possiblity, in todays speed of internet trading, EW seems redundant.

Take care
Bob.

Hi Bob,

Good to have you comment this evening.

I have been delving into some wave analysis and would like to talk to some people about it. You mentioned the speed of the internet. Are you saying it creates too much noise to accurately define waves?

I have come across a variation of EW that I am still trying to understand. I will post it in due coarse but would like to draw a reference point from what is percieved as traditional EW and go from there. Nick, Magdoran and Wavepicker and all lets talk EW.

EW is one thing I need to add to my toolbox.

Regards
Snake

 

[Bobby]

Hi Bob,

Good to have you comment this evening.

I have been delving into some wave analysis and would like to talk to some people about it. You mentioned the speed of the internet. Are you saying it creates too much noise to accurately define waves?

I have come across a variation of EW that I am still trying to understand. I will post it in due coarse but would like to draw a reference point from what is percieved as traditional EW and go from there. Nick, Magdoran and Wavepicker and all lets talk EW.

EW is one thing I need to add to my toolbox.

Regards
Snake

Hello Snake,

Have a deep look into it mate, but ask this of yourself, if it works why DO those that push it need to?

Its like a prognosis of the maybe.

Cheers Bob.

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Hello Snake,

Its like a prognosis of the maybe.

Cheers Bob.

Bob,

I"ll talk to the resident experts, but it is interesting. The problem I have is "where do I put the counts"? Why not here instead of there?

Cheers

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Re: Elliott Wave- Do you use it?

A book I'm reading (Dynamic Trading by Miner) says Elliott Wave is only useful 50% of the time. Or rather Elliott Wave can only be applied about 50% of the time, and pretty much only the basic impulse and ABC correction is useful for trading. The author doesn't recommend EW software since they try to apply an EW count all of the time on anything, when there won't always be one, or one with any practical value.
I've been (went)to a Profit Source seminar BTW, a few years ago. They also advocated EW back then. The strategy they suggested was shorting ABC corrections after the software had counted a five wave impulse.

So as a trader the above would mean looking quickly and if it doesn't jump out at you it isn't there?

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Re: Elliott Wave- Do you use it?

The minor labelling opens many more opportunities for trades as well as getting a better idea of when the larger waves will complete.
I still believe eyeballing will be better for you in the longer term, especially knowing the volume nuances as well. Here is an example of AUW with clear volume attributes that are confirming a very good probability wave-iii high:

Nick,
Is being aware of the minor waves the only way to validate the larger waves? Or should the larger waves just stand out to be of value as a trader?
Snake

 

[Bobby]

Bob,

I"ll talk to the resident experts, but it is interesting. The problem I have is "where do I put the counts"? Why not here instead of there?

Cheers

Yes Snake, where to start?
Some say from the first listing, but others don't.

Crap hovers on this, look deep Sir.

Cheers
Bob.

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Some say from the first listing, but others don't.
Bob.

Bob,
It might shock some but I'm not interested in the analysis from the dawn of time as some are. But how it can be applied as a trader would do. Now i think that is what Mr Miner does and espouses. If so how is the analysis tamed to limit the need to be right and at what juncture is it all finished and started from.
Maybe I should read his book.

I"m off to bed now.
Take care
Snake

 

[tech/a]

Snake.

Its not something you can get your head around in 10 mins or by reading a book (At least the first time).
I was similar in view to Bobby some years ago.Was just voodoo and smoke and mirrors.Couldnt for the life of me work out why a wave count would change.

Once you understand how and why they can and do alter it all fits.
THERE ARE RULES.

Its not for everyone and takes time (lots of it) to even get a handle on--- (Where I am)---even this level of proficiency is of great value to the trader with the ability to at least know where you are in a trade.

Sign up to Radges "The Chartist" for a few months---here you'll see it in action by someone who is very good at Elliot analysis---

To attempt to explain Elliot or Steidelmayer (On the thread next door) in snippets on threads doesnt and cannot do either analysis any justice.
Both are in my veiw the best "Art Forms" of analysis available to the trader.

 

[Nick Radge]

Snake,
There are probably 3 schools of thought; Prechter & Neely being the major two around the world and Miner. I reside with Miner as it suits me, Mags and WP use Prechter. There is no right or wrong in this, just personality type. I have studied Prechter and I have used the EWI services for 4 years and continue to do so today. I have a fairly good idea on the pro's & con's of each. There is no doubt that Prechter is the master and has brought EW so far its quite amazing. However, within his staff he has a gentleman called Jeff Kennedy who is very much a Miner trader.

My opinion is that Miner offer a more practical approach and is probably worth investigating if you're looking at it from a trading perspective. He does not need to know the larger count to generate a trade, although knowing the larger count can help when patterns are not perfectly clear. If the pattern is perfectly clear, then a trade can result as can a profit.

Take a look at the following chart - Tabcorp (TAH). There is a clear 5-wave pattern moving higher out of a base. Whether you know what the larger count is or whether you caught this move up, there is one overriding fact, and that is it will be followed by a decline and that decline will be a deep retracement, probably travelling 50.0% to 61.8% the length of the advance. This overriding fact enable a trade, regardless of the larger count. This is what Miner is about. How did we know the trend was going to terminate where it did? Again, we put the pieces of the puzzle together using a variety of methods. We had a fibonacci extension level, we had the all-time highs and more importantly we had a micro triangle that formed "under" those major highs. Experience says that such a triangle will break to the downside. When these elements align themselves with an Elliott Wave pattern, then you have a trade. Do I care what the larger pattern is for TAH? Would it have mattered? A trade is a trade. A profit is a profit.

 

[Nick Radge]

Another pertinent example is Gold. If you take a look at the Gold thread from a while back I discussed the fact that after the Jan 5 lows were made, we should see an advance of equal length as the prior one. This was an $80 move that missed by $2 - in other words very tradable. Regardless of the bigger picture, an opportunity was available.

Thanks Richkid.

 

[smoothjp]

Hi Guys

Some good information in this thread. I think I will pick up a copy of your book very soon Nick.

I must admit to being a new trader, however I am definitely into educating myself, and plan to read many books on this subject before trading this way.

I have not used elliott wave before but it appears to me to be a very useful way of finding trades.

On the optionetics website I found a tutorial of Tom gentile using profitsource: https://optionetics.webex.com/optio...ex/EWBreakthroughs.wrf&Rnd=0.6225000765868347

I was wondering if the results he shows (I think it was about a 67% success rate) are a reasonable expectation or if this is very much a 'best case scenario'. The reason I am partially convinced is that he has just based it on 50 stocks that best correlate with the DJIA? It just seems too easy to be true?

Also does anyone use this with platinum express? Or do you guys think that platinum express is a rip off?

It seems advanced get is $3995 and then you would need scanner too for another $1560 to have an equivalent package to that of profitsource?

Thanks guys

 

[Nick Radge]

Here is another example of "practical" trading without knowing the larger picture.

A 5-wave was completed up. So far the the small 3-wave has not travelled the "typical" distance, so the risk is it has not completed. Therefore yesterday's strength will probably fail and prices will continue lower. From a practical trading standpoint, any move above the wave-v would invalidate that continued bearish expectation and suggest the trend will continue. Obviously one expecting the "typical" pattern to unfiold would place a protective stop above those highs. Whether this is a larger uptrend or downtrend does not matter from a "practical" trading standpoint, there is still an opportunity. If/when prices reach the "typical" area for a correction one may then need to assess the larger picture or if one intends to trade the larger swings, then the same procedure should be applied to weekly charts.

This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.

Past performance is not a reliable indication of future performance. This material has been prepared based on information believed to be accurate at the time of publication. Subsequent changes in circumstances may occur at any time and may impact the accuracy of the information.

 

[theasxgorilla]

If time is corruptable due to the action of price then how does using EW achieve accurate projections?

Something else to ponder is that price is also seemingly corruptable. How?

What is price? The value at which a trade was transacted. What are trades transacted in? Currency. What do currencies do relative to one another? Shift.

This is why Prechter invented what he calls the "stable currency benchmark". To try and elliminate fluctuations in the USD from distorting wave counts on the S&P500/DJIA.

The ASX Gorilla.

 

[tech/a]

It seems advanced get is $3995 and then you would need scanner too for another $1560 to have an equivalent package to that of profitsource?

The EOD GET has the scanner in it.
Just bought it at $3720.

 

[machi]

Here is another example of "practical" trading without knowing the larger picture.

A 5-wave was completed up. So far the the small 3-wave has not travelled the "typical" distance, so the risk is it has not completed. Therefore yesterday's strength will probably fail and prices will continue lower. From a practical trading standpoint, any move above the wave-v would invalidate that continued bearish expectation and suggest the trend will continue. Obviously one expecting the "typical" pattern to unfiold would place a protective stop above those highs. Whether this is a larger uptrend or downtrend does not matter from a "practical" trading standpoint, there is still an opportunity. If/when prices reach the "typical" area for a correction one may then need to assess the larger picture or if one intends to trade the larger swings, then the same procedure should be applied to weekly charts.

This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.

Past performance is not a reliable indication of future performance. This material has been prepared based on information believed to be accurate at the time of publication. Subsequent changes in circumstances may occur at any time and may impact the accuracy of the information.

None one is disputing the fact that you can't using EW without knowing the larger picture.
But to do this correctly taking the larger picture into consideration would be desirable. Especially as it may give you some hints in terms of the magnitude of a potential moves TO COME.....

Always starting with the big picture will give you the approximate orientation of the degree of trend that you maybe looking to trade. The thing you have forgotten here is that the lasger patterns control the smaller patterns.....

Ultimately it boils down to one thing: STUDY YOUR MARKET WELL........

 

[tech/a]

Think the point Nick is making is that the very larger degree such as Super Cycles are not really necessary in the smaller degrees.

Nick suggests 3 degrees and I tend to agree.

There is a good reason WHY Prechter has been less than accurate with very large timeframe analysis I think.
I'll bring this up later in the Technical Analysis sister thread later.

 

[machi]

There is a good reason WHY Prechter has been less than accurate with very large timeframe analysis I think.
I'll bring this up later in the Technical Analysis sister thread later.

Seems to me you have little idea of what you are saying tech/a, but then again what do you expect from the un initiated...... amatuer