Elliott Wave and the XAO

[mcgrath111]

People who missed out on the GFC. and can see a long term opportunity this time round. Only happens once every decade or so

GFC had blue chip bargains, I can't see that much value here yet. The Dow is back to roughly beginning 2019 levels; I don't think people were saying it was cheap then.
I'd love to be wrong, as a substantial chunk of my money is with vanguard in a managed fund; yet I can't help buy think when the markets inevitably decline; plenty of 'buy and hold' retail investors will sell.

 

[IFocus]

Early days every one this has a long way to go shutting down the world economy has not happen before in your lifetime if and when it starts again it will not resemble the pass.

 

[IFocus]

Ops try "past"

 

[hja]

Ops try "past"

4 million unemployed, 600,000 have applied to access superannuation... pinch me but not too hard.

 

[flightcrank]

GFC had blue chip bargains, I can't see that much value here yet

Check out some of the big 4 banks. Dropped 30% - 40% by the end of march in the span of a week. I see value there if holding for the long term.

 

[mcgrath111]

Check out some of the big 4 banks. Dropped 30% - 40% by the end of march in the span of a week. I see value there if holding for the long term.

You could be right, I'm little more than a beginner.
I'm curious as to what your 'value' is based on. Is it that it has fallen 30-40% so it must be value? or have you calculated a margin of safety?
I don't trust my DCF's (Even more so in times of uncertainty).
(I feel it reads as though I'm **** stirring, just genuinely curious as to how you determine value.)

 

[Boggo]

The S&P500 seems to be leading the march of the indices but it is an area of decision at the moment imo.
Which way from here is it going to lead ?

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[flightcrank]

I'm curious as to what your 'value' is based on. Is it that it has fallen 30-40% so it must be value?

Its not rocket science. blue chip banks that were down 30% - 40%, consistently pay dividends. Given a long term out look of 5 to 10 years, what do you see ? them dropping further than current levels in that time?

My value is based on common sense really. Even given the mantra of past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

 

[OzWaveGuy]

The DJI looks to be completing a triangle wave (iv) before a push up to complete wave 1. The index needs to break out above 23,955 to provide evidence of the next small push up to finish wave 1 up, perhaps near the 25,000 levels (61.8% retrace).

 

[OzWaveGuy]

The XAO appears to have completed the A wave up of the larger wave 2, there is a potential for the index to drop lower over the next several days. Watch for a break either below or above the current levels that will provide further clarity on the wave count.

 

[IFocus]

Well that's keeping everything nice and neat OWG now for possible leg B

 

[Boggo]

Gonna be scary if this comes off !!

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[sptrawler]

Looks to me Boggo, that the only hope is positive spin re opening the economy, something has to turn sentiment positive. Or else.
The down side is, the Banks report in the next couple of weeks, which wont be good.

 

[Boggo]

Looks to me Boggo, that the only hope is positive spin re opening the economy, something has to turn sentiment positive. Or else.

Considering what the world has been though I'd hate to think what would have to happen to drive it to those potential levels.
Big oil companies failing, no fuel, road transport inhibited. The possibilities are endless !

 

[sptrawler]

Considering what the world has been though I'd hate to think what would have to happen to drive it to those potential levels.
Big oil companies failing, no fuel, road transport inhibited. The possibilities are endless !

Yes, it isn't good.

 

[OzWaveGuy]

The XAO is expected to correct upwards in waves of 3, vs the dji, which is anticipated to move as an impulse move in waves of 5 (to a new high).

So far, the XAO has moved upwards in a wave of 3, and the DJI has moved upwards in a wave of 5 (see below), providing a little more evidence that the XAO is correcting upwards. The DJI on the other hand is moving impulsively upwards that confirms for the short term at least, the potential for a drive higher (and to an anticipated new high).

As commented by others, this doesn't provide the XAO with a positive outlook for the longer term, however, this view is consistent with the corrective behavior of the XAO since the end of October 2007. A last major leg down is needed to complete an anticipated flat correction (could be a triangle also, less severe and more sideways action). No matter what levers and buttons are pushed by governments and corporations, the negative social mood still needs to play out, and is represented as a corrective wave in the stock market.

 

[OzWaveGuy]

The XAO appears to still be in the middle of the B wave down. The push up from the end of wave 'a' seems slow and not fast enough time-wise to indicate wave B is complete, so beware of a possible decline to the 5000 level or below.

 

[zaxacel1975]

The XAO appears to still be in the middle of the B wave down.

Would love an update OWG. Always interested in your take on what you are seeing!
Thanks

 

[OzWaveGuy]

Would love an update OWG. Always interested in your take on what you are seeing!
Thanks

nw, for the XAO, it looks as though the 'B' wave previously discussed could be unfolding as a triangle. Still a chance that it could drop below the current consolidation levels. Watch for a breakout very soon.

 

[zaxacel1975]

Watch for a breakout very soon.

Down to retest the March low potentially?