Elliott Wave and the XAO

[chatty]

I can't imagine XAO going down to 300. It means the inflationary scenario will never incur.

XAO down to 300 means the we are heading toward deflationary pressure. Prices of all asset classes will have to go down.

With printed money flying around the globe, and Australia interest rate is relatively high compares to the rest o the world, I can't see it's happening.

I am not an expert in Elliot Wave, but is there other approach to count this wave? To me XAO 2000+ is the most pessimistic I can imagine (btw, this is purely a guess)

 

[sails]

Very valid question Sails. Some info:

Summary of bear market rally posted in early Sept https://www.aussiestockforums.com/for...postcount=7480

Essentially the 'B' circle wave has moved up in 3 waves - a double zig-zag, which is corrective.

A more recent assessment of the bigger picture with some anticipated targets based on a "simple" zig-zag correction is below. Zig-Zags will try for wave equality, hence a downside target of around 1100 on the XAO is based on the completed 'A' and 'B' circle waves as labeled.

Thanks OWG. Firstly, I clicked on your link, but it only takes me to ASF home page. If the relevant post is in this thead, do you know the post number?

When asking about the 5 waves, I was meaning the 5 in the second half of your zig zag shown in your previous post today. That's what I wondered if that indicated more upside.

Secondly, the zig zag seems very elongated. I thought zig zags were normally more of a contracted arrangement. The second leg of your zig zag is actually longer than the first - so in my understanding, that's an expanding situation. I've always thought that expanding ranges tend to continue in the same direction.

Not knocking your views - just that I obviously don't understand EW theory here and genuinely would like to know how you see expanding ranges fitting into an elongated EW zig zag. In addition there were 5 waves into that last expanded leg and that is what I was questioning about more upside with EW theory in my initial post.

Is it possible that there is an alternate count where the first correction is potentially a w1 & w2 and this is currently a w4?

Thanks again..

OWG,

Do you honestly beleive we will see the XAO at 300? Or is it merely a chat perspective. If that were to happen the World as we know it would have to have changed dramatically for the worse.

Hi Prawn,

Hopefully my question to OWG won't send this thread into another slamming match. I understand what OWG has done with his projections on price which is simply taking Fibonacci relationships of previous ranges - which is obviously based on his understanding of EW theory. It's not gospel - just one of many trading methods. I don't see any guarantee of price reaching the C targets for that matter - maybe so, maybe not. Firstly, this B range still has to be proven by the market, then potential targets can be calculated.

If we were really going to get a repeat of the major range down from 2007 to March 2009, I would have thought it would more likely happen from a higher point than where we are now. But then I'm no expert on direction - that's why I'm asking questions and why I like bi-directional option strategies!

Cheers

 

[OzWaveGuy]

My bad - https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=484791&postcount=7480

In brief: The last 5 waves up of 'B' circle is the end of a 3 wave correction - shown on page 2.

Longer term, we've all heard the term "trend following", so looking at the chart on page 3 - it's exactly that - trend following. But not on a scale that most are familiar with. The 87' lows are of high interest, it's close to the trend line in addition to being a previous wave 4. Will it go lower, maybe, maybe not, ask me when 1500 comes into view (if it ever get's that low).

 

[zzaaxxss3401]

The All Ordinaries is meant to be made up of the top 500 companies in Australia (there only seems to be 497 as the current constituent list). How many companies were listed on the ASX between 1875 and 1950, and how is the weighting for the index created?

If the first 100 years are still building up to eventually have 500 stocks to choose from, then the trend line would be a constant up until that point. Wouldn't it have a steeper slope between (say) 1975 and 2009?

I couldn't find a historical constituent list for the All Ordinaries, dating back to 1875, so I'm simply trying to stir up someone's brain juices out there (and in the mean time trying to find a more optimistic target than 300 ).

A great amount of effort and analysis has been done on the XAO graph - it's all very interesting reading / visualising. Thank you.

 

[skc]

The All Ordinaries is meant to be made up of the top 500 companies in Australia (there only seems to be 497 as the current constituent list). How many companies were listed on the ASX between 1875 and 1950, and how is the weighting for the index created?

If the first 100 years are still building up to eventually have 500 stocks to choose from, then the trend line would be a constant up until that point. Wouldn't it have a steeper slope between (say) 1975 and 2009?

I couldn't find a historical constituent list for the All Ordinaries, dating back to 1875, so I'm simply trying to stir up someone's brain juices out there (and in the mean time trying to find a more optimistic target than 300 ).

A great amount of effort and analysis has been done on the XAO graph - it's all very interesting reading / visualising. Thank you.

Showing a long term index chart, pointing to it and say "See, market always goes up" is one of the greatest myth / scams of all time imo. As you pointed out, the constituents of the index changes by way of "Darwinistic" way that will always lead to the index going up in the long term.

It will be simpler to find the DOW components going back 100 years. Work out what your return would be had you held those shares back in 1909 until now.

 

[Sean K]

Showing a long term index chart, pointing to it and say "See, market always goes up" is one of the greatest myth / scams of all time imo.

Unless you buy a representation of the index perhaps.

 

[sails]

My bad - https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=484791&postcount=7480

In brief: The last 5 waves up of 'B' circle is the end of a 3 wave correction - shown on page 2...

Thanks for the updated link, OWG.
It will be interesting to see how it all pans out.

 

[OzWaveGuy]

Updating the last short term update here

XAO
So far the wave count for the XAO is holding solid with waves '1' and '2' complete. Wave '3' down is now assumed to be underway and should be aggressive as almost all wave 3's are. If this aggression to the downside does not appear then I will be on the look-out of alternative short term wave counts that may indicate that wave '2' is still unfolding sideways.

 

[Joules MM1]

http://club.ino.com/trading/2009/11/the-end-of-a-six-thousand-year-elliott-wave-cycle/

this was sent to me today...... it's a biggie

 

[nomore4s]

http://club.ino.com/trading/2009/11/the-end-of-a-six-thousand-year-elliott-wave-cycle/

this was sent to me today...... it's a biggie

This sort of rubbish is exactly why EW loses creditability with me. Couldn't be bothered reading it all but to try use the great flood and the fall of the roman empire to point to the next down leg is a pretty long bow to draw.

Trading is about probabilities and some of the EW stuff you see posted around loses touch with reality which of course means the probability of things playing out is low.

Some people obviously have way too much time on their hands.

 

[Joules MM1]

This sort of rubbish is exactly why EW loses creditability with me. Couldn't be bothered reading it all but to try use the great flood and the fall of the roman empire to point to the next down leg is a pretty long bow to draw.

Trading is about probabilities and some of the EW stuff you see posted around loses touch with reality which of course means the probability of things playing out is low.

Some people obviously have way too much time on their hands.

yes, agree, common sense isnt that common and neither are good elliotticians

 

[Porper]

yes, agree, common sense isnt that common and neither are good elliotticians

There are plenty of good Elliott analysts around the trouble is they usually turn out to be a bit whacky.

Prechter comes over as very grounded and has done an exceptional amount of work bringing R.N Elliotts work back to life.

He has been calling a severe market collapse for the past 10 yrs or so and had to be right eventually.

He is presently calling for another catastrophic decline any day now ... worse than the crash from October 2007. His target is 700 (seven hundred) for the DOW. I think the market will have imploded long before those levels are reached. He is calling for Americans to bail out of all US. banks and move to safe haven countries like Switzerland & New Zealand ( glad I live in the latter )

 

[Joules MM1]

actually, i rate Peter Kendell and Jeffrey Kennedy as pro traders who are extremely profficient elliotticians........

try not to watch too many of Robert jnrs videos .....they put you into perma sell mode......

 

[motorway]

Any LONG TERM analysis on Indexes is Suspect because of

"Permanence breakdown"

The stocks themselves change character
But the make up of indexes completely change character ALL TOGETHER

whether Empires come or go implode or Explode

Stock indexes in the long run will only GO UP

That is how they are designed
and Some like the DOW Actively managed..

Indexes end up with the stocks that will go up / are going up.

Even the ASX switches from being Financial heavy to resource heavy
The index is never a constant ..

If the only thing to make money was to be undertakers
The Index would become undertaker heavy

HENCE EW is ridiculous when applied through the ages on Indexes
The Thing that was 12345 is gone by the time of ABC

Motorway

 

[nunthewiser]

Stock indexes in the long run will only GO UP

That is how they are designed

Not all .

Sorry for being pedantic but indexes will only always go up until such time as they do not.

 

[Whiskers]

Any LONG TERM analysis on Indexes is Suspect because of

"Permanence breakdown"

The stocks themselves change character
But the make up of indexes completely change character ALL TOGETHER

whether Empires come or go implode or Explode

Stock indexes in the long run will only GO UP

That is how they are designed
and Some like the DOW Actively managed..

Indexes end up with the stocks that will go up / are going up.

Even the ASX switches from being Financial heavy to resource heavy
The index is never a constant ..

If the only thing to make money was to be undertakers
The Index would become undertaker heavy

HENCE EW is ridiculous when applied through the ages on Indexes
The Thing that was 12345 is gone by the time of ABC

Motorway

Well done Motorway, in rather blunt terms as opposed to your usual tad 'mystical' manner.

Not all .

Sorry for being pedantic but indexes will only always go up until such time as they do not.

Hey, Nun... you aught to be sorry :... heck, what's 20 odd years in whatever that scenario was!

 

[motorway]

Not all .

Sorry for being pedantic but indexes will only always go up until such time as they do not.

They need more undertakers , maybe

or was it prostitutes and Beer

You can bet that they will get it right and it will GO UP..

heck, what's 20 odd years in whatever that scenario was!

Exactly, Whiskers



Motorway

 

[nunthewiser]

It was the Nikkei 225..........

 

[motorway]

It was the Nikkei 225..........

ahhhh should have looked a bit closer ...

I guess The Bigger the bubble The Bigger the headache

The NASDAQ a good example too

But the point remains Indexes are insubstantial over long time spans..

the players are always changing
Even if the Game doesn't


Motorway

 

[White_Knight]

This sort of rubbish is exactly why EW loses creditability with me. Couldn't be bothered reading it all but to try use the great flood and the fall of the roman empire to point to the next down leg is a pretty long bow to draw.

Trading is about probabilities and some of the EW stuff you see posted around loses touch with reality which of course means the probability of things playing out is low.

Some people obviously have way too much time on their hands.

Haha...i agree EW is generally crap, but that article was clearly a pisstake.