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The current expansion of Eden's Colorado based production capability of
EdenCreteTM, from its current maximum level of approximately 190,000 gallons
per year to a targeted maximum (operating on a 24 hour/day basis) of
approximately 2.4 million gallons per year, is underway and is now scheduled to
be in production between late 2016 and early in 2017.
Maybe I'm overly cautious, but I have now started to look at it the other way around:
If TAS "should be" 25% above EDE, that means EDE "Should be" 20% below TAS.
What if TAS knew a little more than you, I, and all the mums and dads? Given that TAS can't easily turn their EDE holding into cash, they would have to value it at a long-term average.
Assuming then the current 15cps TAS is "about right", EDE's target price would come down to about 12c.
As a consequence, I'm treating both as highly speculative and only trade short-term swings.
What would be worth calculating is approximately how much concrete is used each year around the world that is a candidate for improving with Edencrete. Then calculate how much Edencrete is required for the process. Clearly one doesn't just dominate a market in a short while but the overall figures would be worth seeing. That would also give us an idea of what needs to happen for a 50million gallon a year plant to sell all it's product.
...
I note you mentioned that the price is ~$25/gallon ($US or $A?)... that's quite expensive. This adds about $135 per cubic metres of concrete. Concrete supply costs would be <$250 per cubic metre. So the saving to offset this will have to come from alternating the design by some 1/3 of the volume. This is not easy to achieve.
... .
I read that there were some alternating of design = significant reduction in volume of concrete required and we need to add the saving that is expected with less steel mesh or rebar. 40-45% saving in cost and 50% thinner concrete.
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20160401/pdf/43671rtk49f5pn.pdf
I understand that there also is a university project with Eden to test building construction minimising steel re-enforcement. (cannot find the reference to this just yet)
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20160418/pdf/436l6bqwdkm9x1.pdfEDENCRETE TM US UPDATE
Contract for EdenCrete
TM for Heavy Duty Wear andHighly Abrasive Applicationin Georgia Completed
HIGHLIGHTS
•Eden has completed the replacement of a high strength concrete slab that is subject to extreme heavy duty wear and abrasion
•The EdenCreteTM replacement slab replaced only the upper 70% of the original cracked concrete slab at greatly reduced costs.
•The replacement EdenCreteTM slab delivered a total project cost saving of 45% compared with an alternative ultra high strength slab design was 50% thinner than the ultra high strength slab design, used only fiberglass fibres and carbon nanotube reinforcement in lieu of traditional steel mesh or rebar, required almost no sub-base preparation, and is intended to provide at least a comparable 5-year service life
•The slab replacement used the same EdenCrete enriched concrete mix that was approved by GDOT for use in its 24-hour concrete repair mix and B Class concrete mix
.50m gallons = 190m litres of additive. I think in one presentation they mentioned applying 4gal/ cubic yard of additive... so working to metics it is about 20 litres per cubic metre. In other words, 190m litres of the additive = 9.5m cubic metres of concrete.
To put in some perspective...9.5m cubic metres of concrete is enough to build 1520km of 8 lane motorway (say 25m wide) with 250mm think concrete pavement. I am sure the world's concrete market is much much larger than that, but it'd take some effort to win enough projects to take up the volume.
By the way SKC is there a gremlin in your calculations ? I don't think this much concrete can produce this amount of road.
50m gallons = 190m litres of additive. I think in one presentation they mentioned applying 4gal/ cubic yard of additive... so working to metics it is about 20 litres per cubic metre. In other words, 190m litres of the additive = 9.5m cubic metres of concrete.
To put in some perspective...9.5m cubic metres of concrete is enough to build 1520km of 8 lane motorway (say 25m wide) with 250mm think concrete pavement. I am sure the world's concrete market is much much larger than that, but it'd take some effort to win enough projects to take up the volume.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...l/news-story/ad6a3aeb34773808487b4a53b4977254Eden chief Greg Solomon says it wasn’t easy to convince the conservative industry of EdenCrete’s virtues. Eventually, the Georgia Department of Transportation became convinced after its tests showed a 45 per cent rise in compressive strength and a 56 per cent reduction in abrasion.
The facility is planned to have a 190 million litre capacity, but with an initial output of 47ml while Eden gauges demand for the additive, which currently sells for about $US6 a litre. Eden has canvassed debt funding from US sources, but Solomon says initial equity funding is more likely unless management has a “high degree of confidence” about orders.
Eden shares vaulted 20 per cent yesterday and bear little resemblance to the 1c value ascribed to February’s rights and options raising. The real intrigue lies in the value of Tasman, which is also chaired by Solomon and owns 44.5 per cent of Eden’s ordinary shares and options collectively worth $175m, or 46c per Tasman share.
Basilio,
could it be that the Solomons kept it deliberately vague, and could it be that they threw in the bit about potential expansion to 8-fold size on purpose to cause you to think the way you do?
Read the disclaimer about "forward looking" ...
I am certainly not the only trader who looks for - and often finds - ulterior motives of directors. They say past performance is not always a reliable predictor of future performance. But observation of human nature does give some clues. Let's leave it at that.
I remain cautious.
Having traded mainly TAS and TASO - still under speccie rules, predominantly by the charts - I sold the last position yesterday and am now completely out of EDE-TAS-TASO. Although some buyers seemed to return early today, I don't believe support will be strong enough after just one day of profit taking.
Sure, not all gaps must be closed, but the one down to 19.5c looks now a sufficiently serious threat. Therefore, I'll stay clear for the time being
View attachment 66340.
Just looked at the numbers in the presentation today, can someone else have a look at them and confirm my very simple maths*. Does it look like earnings / share being somewhere between $1 - $2 per annum in 2022/23 from those numbers. I know it is a long way to go and a lot of things to go right but ..I like those numbers.
NO.
That is at best the revenue per share....
The profits will be a much smaller number, assuming there are costs involved in producing the stuff.
That does lead to a key question... What are the operating expenses in production? The capital expense estimates are laid out, but once the facilities are built, what will it cost per gallon to produce?
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