Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[wayneL]

Likewise.

The one concern I do have however is the apparent assumption by some, that being the media and according to reports some retailers, that everyone owns a smartphone and carries it with them constantly.

In practice most but not all people own one and a portion of those carry it with them constantly. I note that government is not demanding that everyone does so but there does seem to be an element that finds the idea that someone ordinarily finds no need for such a device incomprehensible.

Personally yes I have one but under normal circumstances no I certainly don't carry the thing every single time I step out the front door, they're too fragile and expensive for that.

I'm not opposed to the app in any way, just to the assumption that every single person walking down the street is carrying a smartphone at all times as though doing so were some mandatory requirement under normal circumstances.

Mine stays in the Ute, or on the bench at home. I never carry as such.

 

[SirRumpole]

Likewise.

The one concern I do have however is the apparent assumption by some, that being the media and according to reports some retailers, that everyone owns a smartphone and carries it with them constantly.

In practice most but not all people own one and a portion of those carry it with them constantly. I note that government is not demanding that everyone does so but there does seem to be an element that finds the idea that someone ordinarily finds no need for such a device incomprehensible.

Personally yes I have one but under normal circumstances no I certainly don't carry the thing every single time I step out the front door, they're too fragile and expensive for that.

I'm not opposed to the app in any way, just to the assumption that every single person walking down the street is carrying a smartphone at all times as though doing so were some mandatory requirement under normal circumstances.

True. My mobile is so old that it can't download apps.

It makes and receives voice calls and SMS and that's basically all I need.

I don't need twatter or facepalm or snotify or any other rubbish, and I certainly don't need to be running into other people on the street while checking my emails.

But then, I'm just a grouchy old man.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

one transformative effect of this dang virus

Through this crisis, the world's cloud and network infrastructure has delivered massive scaling to support vital workloads for businesses and consumers. Cloud delivered applications seen as convenience a quarter ago, such as online shopping and video collaborations have now become indispensable”

Robert Swan, CEO, Intel Corporation

We’ve seen two year’s worth of digital transformation in two months. From remote teamwork and learning, to sales and customer service, to critical cloud infrastructure and security”

Satya Nadella, CEO, Microsoft Corp

“There is both an immediate surge in demand and systemic structural changes across all of our solution areas that will define the way we live and work going forward”

Satya Nadella, CEO, Microsoft Corp

 

[sptrawler]

I just noticed on T.V an advert suggesting you should not put off seeing your GP, also don't put off having scans as the early detection of issues is important, very important points.
I wonder if the virus has had a negative impact on doctors, imaging services etc, also on the same note, I haven't seen a reduction in premiums from health funds, but one would expect the demand on their financial assistance has dropped.
The flow on effect may have a positive effect on some bottom lines and a negative effect on others.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Flights still coming to Australia at start of May
https://www-australianfrequentflyer...rnational-airlines-flying-australia-may-2020/

 

[basilio]

Trump’s threats to reignite the US-China trade war in reaction to the pandemic trigger a sell-off in global financial markets,

Global stock markets turned south when Trump opened the option of a trade war with China again.
https://www.theguardian.com/busines...trump-us-china-trade-war-coronavirus-covid-19

 

[SirRumpole]

The effect of the "just in time" economy on corona virus response.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-02/coronavirus-pandemic-exposes-just-in-time-economy/12206776

 

[Country Lad]

The effect of the "just in time" economy on corona virus response.

I know the owners of a couple of large private businesses for whom I have done the odd bit of consulting have increased their inventories few years ago. When we looked at the cost (and risk) of incidents of interruptions to the supply chains, they elected for an increase in inventory of their inputs.
The cost of keeping the additional inventory at the low interest rates was far less than the cost of their business interruptions.

I have no doubt many businesses who have been severely interrupted are doing this exercise and reassessing their risk management strategy. Could lead to a whole new look at, if not the end of, the "just in time" practice, at least for the period of low interest rates.

 

[MrChow]

https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-new-york-antibody-test-f4fbed78-646f-4b46-90b8-5e8ca75380e4.html

New York City has 12.3% of their 8.9m population infected.

That equals 1.1m people and 25k have died, giving them a mortality rate of 0.2%.

If that is an accurate figure it's the equivilent risk of getting the flu twice.

I think that is optimistic news for markets as populations will be unlikely to accept mass economic shutdowns again.

 

[Smurf1976]

I know the owners of a couple of large private businesses for whom I have done the odd bit of consulting have increased their inventories few years ago. When we looked at the cost (and risk) of incidents of interruptions to the supply chains, they elected for an increase in inventory of their inputs.
The cost of keeping the additional inventory at the low interest rates was far less than the cost of their business interruptions.

I think "just in time" is one of those things which has become an article of faith. It's drummed into those doing various business qualifications and they accept it as is, without ever doing the maths on it.

As I pointed out to someone some time ago, the having minimal stock in made zero sense given that they were keeping the cash at 0.0% interest and not putting it to productive use. In doing that they'd be losing due to inflation plus the additional staff time associated with more frequent ordering plus they were paying very substantially higher prices for the small quantities purchased versus one big order which was my main point. Note that we're talking about bulk items here - they don't deteriorate in storage, there's zero technological change and they own the warehouse anyway so the cost of something sitting in it is nil. Couldn't tell them though, their mind was made up and wasn't going to be changed.

I expect the virus will show up a lot of things like that. Not just inventory issues but things where people just accept what they believe to be true and never actually question to see whether it really is true. Quite a few untruths will have been exposed almost certainly.

 

[jbocker]

I can understand some of what drove 'just in time', to save storage costs, but another is shelf life, where things are out of date so bloody fast. Buy something today and its been superseded by the time you have driven home.
On storage, I wonder if old warehouses might start opening up. Those that haven't been used by Toilet Roll Hoarders.

 

[againsthegrain]

jobkeeper is not really living up its target

Expecting a $1500 JobKeeper payment? Not after tax

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/...BPtpAlyQDSCXahYW3xQPYZJsgz7oeYlluCF-tkKNQsh14

 

[Smurf1976]

I can understand some of what drove 'just in time', to save storage costs, but another is shelf life, where things are out of date so bloody fast. Buy something today and its been superseded by the time you have driven home.

I see it as one of those things that has its place, it's a good idea in many circumstances, but which has been adopted universally which includes situations where it's not at all beneficial.

That seems to be common with a lot of things. Good ideas in many situations but they end up being applied to situations where they really don't make sense.

 

[sptrawler]

jobkeeper is not really living up its target



https://www.theage.com.au/politics/...BPtpAlyQDSCXahYW3xQPYZJsgz7oeYlluCF-tkKNQsh14

The thing is, no matter how much you hand out some people will complain, this is the first major downturn-recession that workers have received anything.
The age of entitlement is really kicking in, throw money at people and they come up with a reason why it should be more, rather than just being thankful they are actually getting something.
The 1980's and 1990's recession, if you lost your job it was tough $hit, grow a pair and get on with it.

 

[againsthegrain]

The thing is, no matter how much you hand out some people will complain, this is the first major downturn-recession that workers have received anything.
The age of entitlement is really kicking in, throw money at people and they come up with a reason why it should be more, rather than just being thankful they are actually getting something.
The 1980's and 1990's recession, if you lost your job it was tough $hit, grow a pair and get on with it.

Totally agree

We're grateful for anything, but $450 per week doesn't cover the mortgage and car loans, so there's nothing left for food or any utility costs," he said.

 

[sptrawler]

Totally agree

I know I have been in situation in the early 1980's, where I had to leave a job due to reasons outside of my control, arrived in Perth with the kids, second degree burns a dog and not much else, that wasn't already in hospital.
Went to centerlink and the result was when you have spent everything you have, then come and see us. I was reluctant to go there in the first place and after that I've never been in the place.
The most humiliating and disappointing day of my life.

 

[Humid]

The thing is, no matter how much you hand out some people will complain, this is the first major downturn-recession that workers have received anything.
The age of entitlement is really kicking in, throw money at people and they come up with a reason why it should be more, rather than just being thankful they are actually getting something.
The 1980's and 1990's recession, if you lost your job it was tough $hit, grow a pair and get on with it.

Yeah I lived in a shoebox on the side of the road....busy road too

 

[sptrawler]

Yeah I lived in a shoebox on the side of the road....busy road too

No you live in a shoebox on the side of a minesite.
But at $250k a year I would do it. lol
Actually I did it for $36k a year, 5 weeks on one week off.
The thing is I was never smug enough, to try and take the piZZ out of my old man, because he was retired and did it harder than me.
Times change, so does people perceptions.
Just be careful of who you $hit on climbing the ladder, as you will probably pass them on the way down, grasshopper.

 

[Humid]

No you live in a shoebox on the side of a minesite.
But at $250k a year I would do it. lol
Actually I did it for $36k a year, 5 weeks on one week off.
The thing is I was never smug enough, to try and take the piZZ out of my old man, because he was retired and did it harder than me.
Times change, so does people perceptions.
Just be careful of who you $hit on climbing the ladder, as you will probably pass them on the way down, grasshopper.

Yeah no one ever did it harder than you pops

 

[sptrawler]

Yeah no one ever did it harder than you pops

Obviously not you, but don't hold your breath, things may even bring high flying bogans like you down to earth IMO.
Interesting times, we can continue as China's #*tch or maybe take a hit, for a more sustainable first world future.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-03/coronavirus-australia-china-difficult-times/12206730
From the article:
The attempt by these two billionaires and indeed other business leaders to force a foreign policy course correction from the Morrison Government may not be entirely surprising, but it is nonetheless a sign of the difficulty that lies ahead for the Prime Minister.

Stokes and Forrest are hardly alone among business leaders wanting to make peace with Beijing.

Self-interest may be at play here, but the uncomfortable truth for many Coalition backbenchers fuming at these business leaders is that Australia will need China in its economic recovery.

Scott Morrison points out it's a mutually beneficial relationship. China needs high quality iron ore and coal as much as Australia needs the revenue.

The problem on the Australian side is the over-reliance on one big trading partner. And for all the talk of Australia becoming more self-sufficient and diversifying its trade relationships, it's much easier said than done.