Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[ducati916]

You can plot your risk.



jog on
duc

 

[Junior]

For various reasons, where it came from is important. It obviously came out of a lab, and if nothing else this means laboratory security needs to be improved (or if it was a deliberate release there are clear accountability issues).

Hi Sdajii, how come you are so sure this came from a lab, and not wet markets? Do you have expertise in this area or is this view based on your online research? I'm not having a go, I don't know anything about this stuff. All I know is we have all manner of 'experts' commenting on its origin. The majority of people with expertise with viruses and infectious disease are saying it likely came from bats, and almost certainly not from a lab.

How can you be so sure?

 

[Humid]

Hi Sdajii, how come you are so sure this came from a lab, and not wet markets? Do you have expertise in this area or is this view based on your online research? I'm not having a go, I don't know anything about this stuff. All I know is we have all manner of 'experts' commenting on its origin. The majority of people with expertise with viruses and infectious disease are saying it likely came from bats, and almost certainly not from a lab.

How can you be so sure?

Playing with bats in a lab perhaps

 

[SirRumpole]

Playing with bats in a lab perhaps

Well I suppose even if it did escape from a lab in China you can't necessarily assume malicious intent.

They may have been doing research to try and find a vaccine, or simply just study how viruses mutate and spread.

If that's the case then China should simply say that's the case and we can move on, otherwise suspicion will spread worse than the virus.

 

[qldfrog]

sure

Even a vaccine or other application that works against Covid-19.

40y for AIDS and still nothing after millions and millions of deaths inc in the west,
some treatment after 20y or so;
let's say optimistically 10y?

 

[qldfrog]

you can't necessarily assume malicious intent.

definitely!But **** happens..

If that's the case then China should simply say that's the case and we can move on, otherwise suspicion will spread worse than the virus.

China does not care about the rest of the world, what is important is the inner story, the pride and the image of Xi vs the Chinese population
History is being rewritten as we speak by the propaganda master, and the blame is being put on Americans..yeap, this is China...

They will NEVER admit it as long as the CCPis in power, and any clues or witnesses will be disappeared;
I suspect the first victim had no chance of recovering, then carry on alive

 

[moXJO]

SARS escaped twice from a lab in China that caused an outbreak.
It's always a possibility this may have.

Apparently the genetic sequence of coronavirus was different from the lab around the corner from the wet market.
That's still not ruling anything out.

 

[jbocker]

sure

40y for AIDS and still nothing after millions and millions of deaths inc in the west,
some treatment after 20y or so;
let's say optimistically 10y?

The big differences are;
the 'prize money' that will be available to those that come up with a credible cure;
the huge impacts on lifestyles and economies are making countries unitedly demand a cure;
the frightening notion that something more serious will evolve.

We have in the past developed solutions against biology, that have challenged our species. I agree with you that it could take some time and that we probably wont get the full cure but enough to mitigate its rampant spread. It will become another big pharma cash cow.

 

[jbocker]

You can plot your risk.

View attachment 102450

jog on
duc

Plotted mine. It ends up near the bottom far left. ASF Couch Potato. although some might be top left, but not me.

 

[qldfrog]

Hi Sdajii, how come you are so sure this came from a lab, and not wet markets? Do you have expertise in this area or is this view based on your online research? I'm not having a go, I don't know anything about this stuff. All I know is we have all manner of 'experts' commenting on its origin. The majority of people with expertise with viruses and infectious disease are saying it likely came from bats, and almost certainly not from a lab.

How can you be so sure?

The root of the virus is a SARS like and come from bats, but where do you find bats in the middle of winter, morever in a situation where it could jump species, and due to its contagion if not happening in wuhan for the jump, why no sign of epidemy down south earlier, Wuhan labs where playing with bats and viruses, this is known, not denied.
whether it has been engineered or not is the only point where we do not really know, but the market origin is crap, it may have acted as the key first contamination point, but not the source, the Nature team had a great article a while back about how to find Patient 0.. no sign of him/her yet and we will never find, but some know.Does the CIA knows and if they do, when will they release this time bomb...that is the worry

 

[Bill M]

My apologies if this has been posted before. I find this documentary very informative.

Tracking Down the Origin of the Wuhan Coronavirus

 

[Dona Ferentes]

The headlines will be like budget night (Beer, ciggies up) but the $750 is being spent in various ways, as expected. And some are saving it.

research .. found women are spending the money on groceries, utilities, rent, delivered food and clothing.

By contrast, men are more likely to spend the cash on automotive goods, games, apps, music, alcohol and insurance.

 

[Sdajii]

Well I suppose even if it did escape from a lab in China you can't necessarily assume malicious intent.

They may have been doing research to try and find a vaccine, or simply just study how viruses mutate and spread.

If that's the case then China should simply say that's the case and we can move on, otherwise suspicion will spread worse than the virus.

This is absolutely true, it came out of a lab, but it likely wasn't deliberate. Viruses and other pathogens escape from research labs fairly often, and China has had some pretty nasty examples which are well known, and no doubt many others they've successfully contained and kept quiet. The important thing here is that in this case it has caused the biggest economic problems in the history of the planet, considerable death and suffering, mental health issues, etc etc etc, and we're still in the early stages. If you play with something dangerous you have a responsibility to keep others safe from it, and if you fail to do so, you are liable. This is why we're having the stupid wetmarket story pushed on us, despite how clearly false it is. In the early stages they didn't want to admit it was from a bat (they were researching horseshoe bat viruses at the lab but horseshoe bats aren't found within a thousand kilometres of the market and have never been sold there, so this wasn't something they wanted to be known and at first they tried to say it was from a snake, which is as biologically realistic as saying an earthquake was caused because you were red socks instead of green).

 

[Sdajii]

Hi Sdajii, how come you are so sure this came from a lab, and not wet markets? Do you have expertise in this area or is this view based on your online research? I'm not having a go, I don't know anything about this stuff. All I know is we have all manner of 'experts' commenting on its origin. The majority of people with expertise with viruses and infectious disease are saying it likely came from bats, and almost certainly not from a lab.

How can you be so sure?

A little from column A, a little from column B. By training and qualifications I am a biologist, I've worked in genetics and medical research laboratories, I majored in genetics and zoology, I've also spent years living in Asia routinely shopping for staples at wetmarkets, occasionally including fresh bats. If I wasn't trapped in Australia I would have been back in Asia over a month ago (I only planned to be in Australia for 2 weeks, I've spent the last 6 or so years almost exclusively in Asia) and I would have shopped at a wetmarket in either Thailand or Vietnam today. As you might expect, this background gives me a strong interest in the situation and a fairly good ability to grasp it.

Coming from bats and coming from a lab are not mutually exclusive. For now I'll leave aside the possibility of it being genetically altered by humans and just look at a few pieces of evidence. The species in question (horseshoe bats) are a prominent feature at the local virus laboratory where it is open, public knowledge that these viruses were being studied. The first cases of humans infected with COVID-19 occurred before the virus ever got to the market, and they occurred very close to the laboratory (right next to it). China knew about the outbreak for at least about a month before it told the world, and for some time before that there were sickly patients. This gave them plenty of time to check and confirm what they clearly would have known, but they initially said the virus had come from snakes (as a biologist I can tell you that makes as much sense as saying that if you eat a chicken you will be able to breath underwater - reptiles just don't get anything like this virus at all, nothing remotely like that is biologically possible, and any biologist with any relevant background knows it - I was gobsmacked when I heard about the claim and immediately said it 110% was untrue, just like your wife getting pregnant while you were away and claiming it was from a giraffe raping her, it's literally that unrealistic). The species of bat (horseshoe bat) does not occur anywhere remotely near the market or laboratory and has never been sold at the market, but as I said, is a study focus at the laboratory market.

I'm not at all claiming it is a bioweapon (neither can I entirely rule it out), but any bioweapon virus or research virus is based on some natural virus. In fact, entirely naturally occurring viruses can be used as bioweapons, and they are routinely used as research tools in laboratories all over the world. Genetically engineered viruses are also developed as bioweapons in various places, and commonly used as research tools all over the world including in Australia. You've probably had genetically altered viruses deliberately injected into you. I have. Most Australians have. Coming out of a laboratory doesn't necessarily indicate genetically altered or initial malicious intent.

There is ample evidence to show it came out of the virus lab (or probably much, much less likely, it was a deliberate bioweapon attack strategically released at the site of the virus laboratory to make it look like an escape from the lab, but that's getting into some pretty hardcore conspiracy territory, and while it is possible, it's extremely likely and would indicate a laboratory origin anyway). I think in time it probably will be officially acknowledged to have come from a laboratory. The two reasons I think it's not being openly said now are that it would completely terrify the public even though it really doesn't make things more scary, and would cause huge social and political problems ranging from idiots killing or bashing Chinese and probably other Asian-looking people and vandalising their businesses etc, through to high level political issues which they will want to properly prepare for, and have substantial evidence (not just the type of evidence that lets you know something is true, but the type of evidence which is legally binding and publicly understandable).

It would take a very long post to go through the whole Chinese official story and sequence of events, but if you analyse the whole thing it is very clear that China knew a lot more than they were saying early on and were deliberately misleading the rest of the world, hoping to avoid being caught. If you put what they were saying in January and February in context of what is openly known now, it becomes quite obvious, but it's a long and complicated story.

 

[joeno]

^ 100% "absolute", "totally", "the actual story is too long". 0% proof. And i thought it was just the Americans that have gone full retard. Theory of evil genius scientists in a lab working for evil genius government. Wait... which country are we talking about again?

This coronavirus dealing by the US government will ruin their reputation (if it wasn't already bad) for decades. They have gone nazi with their claims of deliberate acts of war, and need to receive "wartime reparations". There is no difference in my eye of the US government (& the mob-mentality people honestly) and the terrorist organizations they pillage oil from... whoops i mean fight against in the ME. Bunch of crooks.

And yes i realise the US hasn't pilfered from Australia yet. But just because a crook doesn't mug you doesn't mean they ain't a mugger.

 

[Junior]

A little from column A, a little from column B. By training and qualifications I am a biologist, I've worked in genetics and medical research laboratories, I majored in genetics and zoology, I've also spent years living in Asia routinely shopping for staples at wetmarkets, occasionally including fresh bats. If I wasn't trapped in Australia I would have been back in Asia over a month ago (I only planned to be in Australia for 2 weeks, I've spent the last 6 or so years almost exclusively in Asia) and I would have shopped at a wetmarket in either Thailand or Vietnam today. As you might expect, this background gives me a strong interest in the situation and a fairly good ability to grasp it.
....

Thanks for expanding. This all makes sense, I initially thought you were indicating it was intentionally created and released, which as you said, is pretty extreme conspiracy theory territory.

 

[hja]

And the Spanish flu and swine flu both came from the USA.

Both have killed far more than Covid19, why haven’t you been requesting chicken and pig farms be shut down.

since Spanish flu came from chickens in the USA, and Swine flu came from a pig farm in Louisiana USA.

Because as I tried to convey to Daji.... I wasn't about what people should eat or not eat or how to police this. No, not my point.

Just the way the condition in which meats are handled and slaughtered. But he was getting carried away with wet markets, where I used "wet" to colour the imagery of how dirty and cramped such settings are like in Wuhan which was named and shamed. So yes it could apply to such farms in Louisiana.

This is why scientists concluded early on, mabne wrongly, that it probably originated from an animal especially bats because of the communicability between humans and animals in these markets. So if not the origin then the propagation.

 

[Humid]

A little from column A, a little from column B. By training and qualifications I am a biologist, I've worked in genetics and medical research laboratories, I majored in genetics and zoology, I've also spent years living in Asia routinely shopping for staples at wetmarkets, occasionally including fresh bats. If I wasn't trapped in Australia I would have been back in Asia over a month ago (I only planned to be in Australia for 2 weeks, I've spent the last 6 or so years almost exclusively in Asia) and I would have shopped at a wetmarket in either Thailand or Vietnam today. As you might expect, this background gives me a strong interest in the situation and a fairly good ability to grasp it.

Coming from bats and coming from a lab are not mutually exclusive. For now I'll leave aside the possibility of it being genetically altered by humans and just look at a few pieces of evidence. The species in question (horseshoe bats) are a prominent feature at the local virus laboratory where it is open, public knowledge that these viruses were being studied. The first cases of humans infected with COVID-19 occurred before the virus ever got to the market, and they occurred very close to the laboratory (right next to it). China knew about the outbreak for at least about a month before it told the world, and for some time before that there were sickly patients. This gave them plenty of time to check and confirm what they clearly would have known, but they initially said the virus had come from snakes (as a biologist I can tell you that makes as much sense as saying that if you eat a chicken you will be able to breath underwater - reptiles just don't get anything like this virus at all, nothing remotely like that is biologically possible, and any biologist with any relevant background knows it - I was gobsmacked when I heard about the claim and immediately said it 110% was untrue, just like your wife getting pregnant while you were away and claiming it was from a giraffe raping her, it's literally that unrealistic). The species of bat (horseshoe bat) does not occur anywhere remotely near the market or laboratory and has never been sold at the market, but as I said, is a study focus at the laboratory market.

I'm not at all claiming it is a bioweapon (neither can I entirely rule it out), but any bioweapon virus or research virus is based on some natural virus. In fact, entirely naturally occurring viruses can be used as bioweapons, and they are routinely used as research tools in laboratories all over the world. Genetically engineered viruses are also developed as bioweapons in various places, and commonly used as research tools all over the world including in Australia. You've probably had genetically altered viruses deliberately injected into you. I have. Most Australians have. Coming out of a laboratory doesn't necessarily indicate genetically altered or initial malicious intent.

There is ample evidence to show it came out of the virus lab (or probably much, much less likely, it was a deliberate bioweapon attack strategically released at the site of the virus laboratory to make it look like an escape from the lab, but that's getting into some pretty hardcore conspiracy territory, and while it is possible, it's extremely likely and would indicate a laboratory origin anyway). I think in time it probably will be officially acknowledged to have come from a laboratory. The two reasons I think it's not being openly said now are that it would completely terrify the public even though it really doesn't make things more scary, and would cause huge social and political problems ranging from idiots killing or bashing Chinese and probably other Asian-looking people and vandalising their businesses etc, through to high level political issues which they will want to properly prepare for, and have substantial evidence (not just the type of evidence that lets you know something is true, but the type of evidence which is legally binding and publicly understandable).

It would take a very long post to go through the whole Chinese official story and sequence of events, but if you analyse the whole thing it is very clear that China knew a lot more than they were saying early on and were deliberately misleading the rest of the world, hoping to avoid being caught. If you put what they were saying in January and February in context of what is openly known now, it becomes quite obvious, but it's a long and complicated story.

I just got home from the bottle shop but passed a giraffe going in the opposite direction.....should I be concerned

 

[Sdajii]

Thanks for expanding. This all makes sense, I initially thought you were indicating it was intentionally created and released, which as you said, is pretty extreme conspiracy theory territory.

That wouldn't be a conspiracy at all. A conspiracy is two or more parties conspiring together towards a common goal. China could simply develop a bioweapon (I don't think anyone fails to realise that bioweapons actually are a real thing, right? We all know China obviously does have them, right?) and... decide to release it. That would only require one party (CCP is by far the most obvious candidate, but not the only possible one) to consider it to be strategically advantageous and go for it, alone (you can't have a single player acting alone and forming a conspiracy, by definition). This would not be a conspiracy, thus theorising that it happened would not be a conspiracy theory in any sense. There are plenty of realistic motives that China or even other parties could have had for releasing it.

Having said that, I'm not saying that this was a deliberate release of a bioweapon or that it was ever intended to be a bioweapon (or the opposite in either case - I don't have enough evidence to come to any definite conclusions there, and the best available information relevant to answering those questions is dubious from all sources and highly contradictory), just that it came out of a laboratory rather than a market, that much is clear.

 

[Sdajii]

Because as I tried to convey to Daji.... I wasn't about what people should eat or not eat or how to police this. No, not my point.

Just the way the condition in which meats are handled and slaughtered. But he was getting carried away with wet markets, where I used "wet" to colour the imagery of how dirty and cramped such settings are like in Wuhan which was named and shamed. So yes it could apply to such farms in Louisiana.

This is why scientists concluded early on, mabne wrongly, that it probably originated from an animal especially bats because of the communicability between humans and animals in these markets. So if not the origin then the propagation.

Do you realise that viruses can only replicate inside a living host (even under laboratory conditions they need living host cells to replicate in), never inside a lifeless body, and no live bats of any species were at the market? (or dead horseshoe bats for that matter). They don't sell live pangolins there either, or other ridiculous things falsely reported by the media such as live koalas! I was astonished when I heard such absurd reports on the news! Live koalas of all things! How do you propose the market was responsible for propagating the virus with no potential hosts other than humans? You can't infect a dead animal with a virus, it's biologically nonsensical; a dead animal is literally a much worse environment for a virus than a clean, dry bench. The only way the virus could have propagated at the market would be by humans congregating, which would be exactly the same issue if they were at a vegetable market or confectionery market or chess tournament or book club or arm wrestling championship where no refreshments were served.

You were the one saying that 'market surfaces being washed with water' was a bad thing, not me! You were the one completely unable to define what the problem you had was, and demonstrating a complete lack of understanding or familiarity with the imagined problem you were complaining about.