Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[Smurf1976]

Dont get me wrong, I am talking about the CPC here not the Chinese people. I have a few Chinese friends and they are wonderful people

Absolutely.

The concerns relate to government not to the people. It's about politics not race.

Same goes for people who dislike Donald Trump. It's about politics not the ordinary American citizen even though, unlike the Chinese, Americans did vote their President into office but the concerns are still about politics not the people as such.

 

[Smurf1976]

Looking to the longer term implications, business is starting to acknowledge what many have been thinking:

It will take months until the global travel restrictions are completely lifted and years until worldwide demand for air travel returns to pre-crisis levels

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52209591

 

[SirRumpole]

Looking to the longer term implications, business is starting to acknowledge what many have been thinking:



https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52209591

I think it will take years to lift the travel restrictions.

Probably anyone who wants to come here will need to need to isolate for 14 days on their arrival as is the case now. We have seen what one cruise ship can do and the same applies to airlines.

International air and sea travel won't be normal unless and until there is a vaccine or effective treatment.

The tourism industry will be stuffed for at least 5 years I reckon and its one of our biggest employers.

 

[qldfrog]

I think it will take years to lift the travel restrictions.

Probably anyone who wants to come here will need to need to isolate for 14 days on their arrival as is the case now. We have seen what one cruise ship can do and the same applies to airlines.

International air and sea travel won't be normal unless and until there is a vaccine or effective treatment.

The tourism industry will be stuffed for at least 5 years I reckon and its one of our biggest employers.

And then add the so called foreign students.
I can not see how airfares could return to the cheap level they were
.nearly 30y ago, a one way trip from europe was $2000 from memory
That would easily translate to a 8k return in nowadays dollars
I expect travel costs to easily double
A bummer, and then add quarantine costs and time at least initially.

 

[qldfrog]

We are all guilty of focusing on whether asx asx will go up or down another 10pc, or if nxt shares will jump.i think we should probably all take a step back, look at the big picture and then
run to get gold, usd, foreign assets...

 

[Country Lad]

And then add the so called foreign students.
I can not see how airfares could return to the cheap level they were nearly 30y ago, a one way trip from europe was $2000 from memory
That would easily translate to a 8k return in nowadays dollars
I expect travel costs to easily double
A bummer, and then add quarantine costs and time at least initially.

How the airline industry emerges will be interesting to watch as there will really be 2 scenarios.

On one hand it will be realised that the industry as it was, with many of the airlines uneconomic, will not be sustainable and we could see higher prices with fewer airlines.

On the other hand, there will be a lot of aircraft sitting idle many will be offered at low rates as owners and leasing companies will be trying to do all sorts of deals to get them in the air. That will result in too much capacity, the price cutting and unviable operators.

So it will be interesting to see how it develops. Either way, I doubt Virgin will be a substantial player if at all.

 

[Smurf1976]

Probably anyone who wants to come here will need to need to isolate for 14 days on their arrival as is the case now.

Which realistically would kill pretty much all leisure tourism, business travel except long term, concert tours, international sport etc.

What’s left would be immigrants or long term (years) visitors and the odd person on a one-off visit to see the family members they’ve never met etc.

I’m not saying you’re wrong, just noting the consequences. The whole tourism industry would be shrunk to the point that it would no longer be a significant thing economically.

Same everywhere. Not many people would be really so keen to go to Paris or New York that they’re willing to spend two weeks effectively in prison (quarantine) in order to do so then another stint locked up upon returning home.

Domestic tourism operators would logically benefit though, especially those which weren’t really on the map so far as international tourists are concerned.

Ordinary Australians might finally get around to seeing the ACT, SA or western NSW if going overseas is virtually impossible. Some of those towns that everyone’s heard of but most Australians have never been to might actually benefit from it all if they go about it the right way. Etc.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Job ads across the country have dropped by almost two thirds as the labour market continues to take a beating from the economic shutdown caused by coronavirus.

National job ads data obtained from online recruiting platform SEEK indicate job ad volumes have progressively worsened since the start of March, hitting a 65.3 per cent drop for week to April 5, compared to the same period last year.

SEEK managing director Kendra Banks described the virus impact on jobs as “swift and extreme”, adding to pressure from bushfires earlier in the year and already weak economic outlook. She said Victoria and New South Wales had experienced the largest declines, which were down 71.6 per cent and 67.4 per cent, respectively.

“Two distinct changes are occurring in Australia’s labour market right now,” Ms Banks said. "Unfortunately there is a mass reduction in the number of jobs available at a national level, whilst simultaneously there is an urgent demand for workers in specific industries.”

A job prospect survey conducted by SEEK found that only 53 per cent of Australian’s feel positive about their future job prospects. The survey also indicated job security had dropped from 66 per cent in January to 53 per cent at the end of March.

 

[sptrawler]

Which realistically would kill pretty much all leisure tourism, business travel except long term, concert tours, international sport etc.

What’s left would be immigrants or long term (years) visitors and the odd person on a one-off visit to see the family members they’ve never met etc.

I’m not saying you’re wrong, just noting the consequences. The whole tourism industry would be shrunk to the point that it would no longer be a significant thing economically.

Same everywhere. Not many people would be really so keen to go to Paris or New York that they’re willing to spend two weeks effectively in prison (quarantine) in order to do so then another stint locked up upon returning home.

Domestic tourism operators would logically benefit though, especially those which weren’t really on the map so far as international tourists are concerned.

Ordinary Australians might finally get around to seeing the ACT, SA or western NSW if going overseas is virtually impossible. Some of those towns that everyone’s heard of but most Australians have never been to might actually benefit from it all if they go about it the right way. Etc.

Probably worth starting a question and answer thread, covering remote Australian destinations, how to get there, what to take, what expect etc.
I know there are people who would love to cross the Simpson Desert, the Great Central road, Kings Canyon, East and West McDonald Ranges, the Nullabor, Cape Levique etc.
But are worried or have no idea where to start, which is the best way and what to carry.
There will be a lot of member's on ASF who will be able to help with info, just a thought.

 

[Country Lad]

Probably worth starting a question and answer thread, covering remote Australian destinations, how to get there, what to take, what expect etc.
I know there are people who would love to cross the Simpson Desert, the Great Central road, Kings Canyon, East and West McDonald Ranges, the Nullabor, Cape Levique etc.
But are worried or have no idea where to start, which is the best way and what to carry.
There will be a lot of member's on ASF who will be able to help with info, just a thought.

sshh, we will have none of that. I have been travelling Aus for 14 years and there are places I am still to visit. I don't want them to to be cluttered up with more like me.

 

[InsvestoBoy]

Ordinary Australians might finally get around to seeing the ACT, SA or western NSW if going overseas is virtually impossible. Some of those towns that everyone’s heard of but most Australians have never been to might actually benefit from it all if they go about it the right way. Etc.

Aren't some states already enforcing the same 2 week quarantine for anyone (even residents) who cross the border as well?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ation-rules-who-has-to-do-it-and-how-it-works

Tasmania, South Australia, the Northern Territory, Western Australia and Queensland have also imposed mandatory self-isolation requirements on non-essential travellers from interstate – including residents returning home.

 

[jbocker]

I know there are people who would love to cross the Simpson Desert, the Great Central road, Kings Canyon, East and West McDonald Ranges, the Nullabor, Cape Levique etc.

.
...and other desolate places like state capital city centres don't forget to put 'em on your bucket list.

( just be Clear I said Bucket)

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Aren't some states already enforcing the same 2 week quarantine for anyone (even residents) who cross the border as well?

I think it's quite likely the international border will be the last thing to be eased off. As a release, pent up demand and also stimulus to economy, regional then interstate travel may be allowed and even encouraged down the track

Chief Medical Officer Brendan Murphy said it was plausible to eradicate the virus by keeping the community locked down until the virus has run its course and infection rates were zero.

"The issue, though, is that then you don't have any immunity in the population and you really have to control your borders in a very aggressive way. And that might be for a long time,'' he said

 

[jbocker]

I note a bit of chat about how long it will take airlines to recover with the tourist industry. It may take some time, but I wonder how much longer, than the airlines, the cruise industry will take. Good luck trying to get travel insurance for over 60s.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Jobs in some sectors
https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-09/coronavirus-employment-jobs-advertisements/12134446
... an urgent demand for both skilled and non-skilled workers in a small number of specific industries and roles. These included:

• Healthcare: Nurses, aged care workers, general medical workers, psychologists, counsellors and social workers are among those who remain in demand.
• Retail: Those critical to the supply chain, such as shelf stackers, delivery drivers, supply chain managers and warehouse supervisors.
• Manufacturing: Some factories require more workers to meet additional demand for household staples.
• Digital specialists: The massive shift to working from home means software developers and cyber security experts are in demand.
• Family support: Nannies and tutors are sought-after, as parents seek additional help with care and education at home.
• Customer support: Call centre operators and managers and customer support staff.
• Mining and resources: Roles such as diesel fitters, auto electricians, truck drivers and machine operators

 

[jbocker]

I visit hospitals more than I like, for this and that, and I usually stop in the café on the way out. But it is gonna cost me a lot more , because I am going to pay for every nurses coffee I see in those cafes.
Bless them all. If you know of any or anyone that works in hospitals please pass on my most sincere thanks.

 

[Smurf1976]

Aren't some states already enforcing the same 2 week quarantine for anyone (even residents) who cross the border as well?

They are yes.

My assumption though is that we'll see travel restrictions within Australia removed sometime prior to an easing of restrictions internationally or at least for returning passengers.

That could of course be wrong......

 

[moXJO]

Turns out there was a bank run back in March.

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/australian-bank-run-panic-cash-withdrawals-rba-2020-4

 

[hja]

Turns out there was a bank run back in March.

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/australian-bank-run-panic-cash-withdrawals-rba-2020-4

It looks like all those rich people who withdrew vast sums of cash from the bank last month will now have to surrender their wads for incineration in order to eliminate all traces of COVID-19.

We cannot have that behaviour in this establishment.

 

[jbocker]

It is good for business to have a return to work as soon as reasonably safe to do so, that is obvious. I wonder about getting back to a safe environment, where I think Australia is doing a lot better than most, would that be good for business too from an international perspective? Would Australia become a place of choice for safer tourism, a 'safer' place to live?