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Damned i might agree with @rederob..must have been infected
Only nuance is that it actually can do nothing about it.. even if it wanted
Damned i might agree with @rederob..must have been infectedGiven that we do not have any core manufacturing businesses, the government can do what it usually does... nothing.
Actually the Treasurer can use powers under the Foreign Acquisitions and Takeovers Act if an action is not in the national interest, as it did when it blocked Hong Kong-based CK Group's bid to assume ownership of the APA Group back in 2018.Damned i might agree with @rederob..must have been infected
Only nuance is that it actually can do nothing about it.. even if it wanted
China new cases are down 97% in a month:
4th Feb - 3887
5th March - 160
Korea trending down too from a week ago:
29th Feb - 813
5th March - 467
I meant we have nothing left to rebuild fromActually the Treasurer can use powers under the Foreign Acquisitions and Takeovers Act if an action is not in the national interest, as it did when it blocked Hong Kong-based CK Group's bid to assume ownership of the APA Group back in 2018.
The analysts at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) have put on their thinking caps and have come up with two sectors that they think will lead the recovery.
They based their findings on the SARS outbreak. Even though COVID-19 is worse than SARS, Macquarie thinks it will go by a similar playbook.
“Based on China’s experience, we suspect the growth in US cases peaks within weeks,” said the broker.
“This is not long, but the market’s horizon shortens in a correction. ASX stock returns should rebound with the US, unless Covid-19 cases rise more rapidly here.”
Climbing the wall of worry
There are a few other key worries that investors shouldn’t read too much into. Falling bond yields is one even though the 10-year yields on US and Australian government bonds have tumbled to record lows.
During the SARS, the Australian 10-year yield bottomed 95 days after stocks hit a trough, explained Macquarie.
Investors shouldn’t also be too concerned about the World Health Organisation’s (WHO) declaration of pandemic gloom. The broker pointed out that stocks bottomed within days of the WHO declaring SARS a crisis. Using the WHO as a cue would have left investors worse off.
“By the time the WHO said the SARS crisis was over, ASX stocks were up 12% and global stocks 20%,” added Macquarie.
Sectors to lead the rebound
The two sectors that led the SARS rebound were technology and resources.
“Software stocks rose 80% in the year after the SARS low,” said the broker.
“Given the secular growth story of ‘software eating the economy’ plus the benefit of a lower discount rate increasing the value of future earnings, we think investors will be drawn back to Tech.”
As for resources, these stocks outperformed industrials by 17 percentage points in the year after the SARS low. China stocks are already up 10% in the past month, which indicates that the worst of COVID-19 may be over.
Stocks for your corona watchlist
“As China has passed the worst, and its economy is coming back online, we think China is in a better position to stimulate,” said the broker.
“This should support resource stocks, which are still roughly half the valuation of Industrials.”
What’s interesting is that Macquarie found that it was price-earnings (P/E) re-rating and not earnings growth that drove the rebound.
my view is that these analysts are dinosaurs repeating past history as an indication of the future: Chinese stimulus should boost the retails and citizens, not more roads and empty buildings already there a plenty, ..So I expect a consumption stimulus.so no mining boom out of it yet.my view onlyCaveat: it is Motley fool
Good point: so 0.6pc mortality rate with top medical facilities in first world, with no health system collapse; we now have the best case scenarioA little ray of sunshine?
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/heal...navirus-south-koreas-aggressive-testing-gives
Coronavirus: South Korea’s aggressive testing gives clues to true fatality rate
- With 140,000 people tested, the country’s mortality rate is just over 0.6 per cent compared to the 3.4 per cent global average reported by the WHO
Going with that figure, with 30% people contaminated..a low figure, that is nearly 47000 deathGood point: so 0.6pc mortality rate with top medical facilities in first world, with no health system collapse; we now have the best case scenario
Based on these graphs the flu mortality rate is 6 times lower than the covid optimistic 0.6pc death rate, with the flu contamination lower due to vaccine.....and known treatments for the flu
And...One off payments won't work this time imo.
People can smell a recession, added with panic of COVID 19. Bills and mortgages will just get payed down.
I like the idea of raising newstart. The poorest in society will keep spending and need a boost.
I agree completely. It was overkill at the time. We were not in that bad of a position to throw money away like idiots.And...
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