Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

over9k said:

The good news is that the vaccines are about 90% effective against it, so we're still back to the same vaccine rollout dictum - we don't need to start the whole development process all over again.

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Absolutely - if we were actually vaccinated.

We are not vaccinated at anywhere near the numbers to protect the community. If delta Covid gets away as it threatens to we face a minimum of 4-5 months infections and closures before we might have widespread inoculation. And that doesn't deal with the people who will refuse to get jabbed and become continuing source of infection. And teh picture we are seeing o/s of delta covid getting away is stark.

basilio said:

. And that doesn't deal with the people who will refuse to get jabbed and become continuing source of infection. And teh picture we are seeing o/s of delta covid getting away is stark.

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How will the people who refuse to get a jab, be a continuous source of infection, if everyone else is vaccinated?

sptrawler said:

How will the people who refuse to get a jab, be a continuous source of infection, if everyone else is vaccinated?

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Clearly they will spread infections amongst themselves. If we have 20-30% of people who aren't vaccinated they will continue to fall ill if there is any virus in the community.

The other critical risk is that the virus will continue its rapid mutation and we risk the vaccine being impotent.

Where we are now

basilio said:

Clearly they will spread infections amongst themselves. If we have 20-30% of people who aren't vaccinated they will continue to fall ill if there is any virus in the community.

The other critical risk is that the virus will continue its rapid mutation and we risk the vaccine being impotent.

Where we are now

COVID-19 leaks leave most states and territories on edge and put millions in isolation

Australia is on tenterhooks as it enters school holidays battling COVID-19 outbreaks in several states and territories while vaccine supply continues to fall short of demand.

www.abc.net.au

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So does that mean the vaccination is pointless?

sptrawler said:

So does that mean the vaccination is pointless?

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Not sure about you, but I don't want to get the virus. Nor does my 84 year old grandmother, 67 year old father etc etc...

over9k said:

Not sure about you, but I don't want to get the virus. Nor does my 84 year old grandmother, 67 year old father etc etc...

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So are you vaccinated? Also is your grandmother vaccinated and your father?
By the way just to give you a heads up, it doesn't stop any of you getting the virus, it just reduces the severity of the reaction.
AS with most things in life, whether it be investing, politics, buying a house, or having vaccinations, emotion should be the last factor in decision making.

sptrawler said:

So are you vaccinated? Also is your grandmother vaccinated and your father?
By the way just to give you a heads up, it doesn't stop any of you getting the virus, it just reduces the severity of the reaction.
AS with most things in life, whether it be investing, politics, buying a house, or having vaccinations, emotion should be the last factor in decision making.

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How is this emotional?

apologies if this has been covered before

The Regional Australia Institute and Commonwealth Bank will release fresh data today showing regional migration is at its highest levels since 2018, rising 7 per cent in the March quarter from the year prior.

The Gold Coast was the most popular destination among “metro-movers” fleeing capital cities during the 2021 March quarter. The next most popular destinations were the Sunshine Coast, also in Queensland, Greater Geelong in Victoria, then Wollongong and Newcastle in NSW.

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The data is part of a new joint venture between the bank and the RAI to track domestic migration among its customer base of 10 million people, where six months in a new location qualifies as migration.

“The first institution most people notify when they move is the bank,” RAI chief executive Liz Ritchie said. “This important partnership allows us to collate data on changes of address and postcode as registered by CBA’s 10 million customer base, the largest in Australia.”

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Exactly as I described over in the housing thread with the USA. Same phenomenon in England too.

Not sure how much it has to do with the virus though?

Alright so data like this continues to stream in now:



And so it's fair to say that looking at basic indicators like cinema numbers, flight numbers etc etc that the reopening and recovery is WELL underway.

To look at the fundamentals, we're seeing this same reopening occurring in the workplace, with supply sides now finally coming back online with commodities thus dropping as supply increases again, and we get the big fundamentals like bonds now plummeting once more:



This is all old news (has been on repeat for about the last month to month & a half or so now) but I'm mentioning it just so we can be sure that it's still occurring.

As a result, we see tech pulling the hardest whilst energy & banks plummet (so the same swing play we've had for 3-4 months now), but what I want to point out in this post is one of the long term bets from yesteryear:

The stay-at-home tech.

Announcements like this are just constant now:



Whilst some companies are mandating all employees to return to the office ASAP, the overwhelming majority are announcing permanent hybrid work models - few companies want their employees to be totally remote, there are times when they need them to be in the office, but just like many people predicted, they're seeing no need to make them come in on the days when they don't need to be. This is the long term normal now - the hybrid/partial distance workplace of the future is now.

The result of this is that the stay at home plays, of particular note zoom, are now back to screaming again. Check zoom out against TQQQ, the triple levered nasdaq (a very tech heavy index) ETF since the may lows:



So what we have here is tech outpacing the overall market significantly, and then zoom outpacing tech by a factor of three.

But this phenomenon of an old favourite being in vogue again isn't unique. Check out the megatech triple levered ETF, FNGU:

Not only has this outpaced the nasdaq considerably, but it is in fact docusign, previously a thorn in my side for an entire year:



Which is the only stay at home play that has kept up with it. Not even zoom has kept pace with the megatech, and the megatech has screamed.

We see the same hard runs in the previous more local heartbreakers of afterpay, zip pay, xero, kogan and so on (no need to post 1000 charts, you can go and look for yourself) as well as the electronic payment providers like square & paypal.

You know, all the favourites of last year.



In other words, everyone saying that all the inflation etc fears were transitory and this work from home stuff was going to become permanent were absolutely right and have been totally vindicated on both counts over the last 6 weeks or so.

So yeah. Everything old is new again

And the news has finally realised what's been true for about 6-7 weeks now:



So that's your sell signal.

(No, I'm not joking).

On another note, anyone that follows me knows I've made quite a few posts about the wonder of index investing - i.e buying a market tracking ETF and just sitting on it. As Jack Bogle said, "indexing always wins".


Recall just how much volatility and nosedives we've seen in tech over the past ~18 months. The tech wreck of september last year. The plummet into election season. The crash after the texas snowstorm. The recrash after inflation fears sent everyone for six just as the snowstorm crash looked like it was recovering.

Every single time, everyone were losing their collective minds. I've just bought at the peak, I've just bankrupted myself like an idiot, so on and so forth.

Let me show you something:



Despite all of these crashes, all of these fears, all the carryon, the nasdaq is now right back to trend. Like, exactly.

If you'd bought TQQQ in the march crash of last year and just sat on your money like it was an egg you were trying to hatch - sold nothing, bought nothing, done precisely zero throughout this entire period despite all the crashes, all the panic, everything, you'd now be sitting on a 550% return (in USD denomination, once the exchange rate is factored in it's about 350% return) for doing quite literally nothing at all. Not making a single trade, not doing a single bit of research, not losing a wink of sleep lying awake at night panicking about what's just happened, nothing.

And you'd have a hard time finding many stock pickers that have made 550% return over this period either. There's a few out there yes, but I can assure you, there's not many.


This is the wonder of index investing when you're confident of a market's direction and the double (or triple) wonder of leveraged index ETF's.

When you know what direction the market is going to move in, all you have to do is buy right & sit tight.

SOXL looking at near as makes no difference a third top above trend so have trimmed 25% of my position at $44.50. Will obviously have to wait to see how good my timing is.

With winter now here,and still living in our glass bubble, we are more and more prone to a real exposure.now in lock down in qld.
And more news like:
Will ensure a lower and lower public acceptance of government decision
Crying wolf for too long wo even acting in preparation...
Another round of business to go under,that or more debt here in oz.
Market wise,it seems the asx is more coupled to the NYSE indexes than local factors,so we could still be ok for a few months before correction
october 2021 anyone? :-(

Dona Ferentes said:

apologies if this has been covered before

The Regional Australia Institute and Commonwealth Bank will release fresh data today showing regional migration is at its highest levels since 2018, rising 7 per cent in the March quarter from the year prior.


The data is part of a new joint venture between the bank and the RAI to track domestic migration among its customer base of 10 million people, where six months in a new location qualifies as migration.

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I believe CBA is sitting on a golden goose with their database,they are well ahead of the ABS and have access real time to the pulse of the nation.what,when ,where people buy or stop buying
They could make bazillions with this info in the share market,and i am sure some do.
And have a fine understanding of the covid response economic effects, if only our government actors were bright enough to use and leverage this

Australia is effectively in lockdown (bar Victoria) in the school holidays. The regional tourist industries in particular would have to be at crisis point. The number of cancellations of holidays would be bank (and back...) breaking.

I hope the Feds put some decent support under these businesses because their collapse will affect people and regional communities alike.

sptrawler said:

So does that mean the vaccination is pointless?

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The current Sydney COVID outbreak was largely seeded at a childrens birthday party.

There were 30 attendees. 24 became infected with Delta COVID and have passed it on.

The 6 people who didn't get infected were health workers who were fully vaccinated.

basilio said:

Australia is effectively in lockdown (bar Victoria) in the school holidays. The regional tourist industries in particular would have to be at crisis point. The number of cancellations of holidays would be bank (and back...) breaking.

I hope the Feds put some decent support under these businesses because their collapse will affect people and regional communities alike.

With school holidays looming, Perth's lockdown has left many in the country facing a catastrophe

From Broome, to Busselton, Exmouth and Kalbarri, holidaymakers from Perth are cancelling their bookings, forcing regional WA tourism operators to once again bear the brunt of a COVID-19 lockdown.

www.abc.net.au

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I would think that Regional tourism in WA apart from those that cater to the overseas tourists has done extremely well during the pandemic. Kalbarri is the only one that that has had a bad time recently with Seroja.

Down South was crazy busy up until the last month or so, up North was the same during last Winter & already currently is. Try & book a place in Broome for the next couple of weeks & have a look at the prices.

Chip shortage still a problem:




Ford's been a real darling lately too:



I don't hold.

And just a fact cf Covid which has implications for Australia..and so our ASX
Les autorités britanniques ont révélé que 117 personnes étaient décédées outre-Manche du variant Delta, naguère appelé «indien». Or, parmi elles, 50 étaient complètement vaccinées (42,7% du total) et 20 primovaccinées (17,1%). Autrement dit, 59,8% des personnes décédées en raison du variant Delta avaient reçu au moins une dose de vaccin
Le Figaro website today so reliable info,

To translate quickly, in the uk, of the 117 deaths from Delta variant,50 had been fully vaccinated and 20 had had one shot.
And the UK is using AZ as we do.
You take the conclusions you want but even if we were to be mostly vaccinated, my view is that we are still exposed naked.