Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[moXJO]

CLO's ?

Is debt a problem in a 0% interest world?

There are a lot of possible triggers. But waiting around for the end to come means missing out on all the gains in the meanwhile.
I feel bearish and that everything is overpriced. But I'm not fighting the Fed, or the above that 9k outlined.


Is Schiller's PE even relevant anymore?

I think I'll stick to meme stocks and crypto. At least I get the joke with those two. Regular markets humour goes over my head.

 

[qldfrog]

CLO's ?

Is debt a problem in a 0% interest world?

There are a lot of possible triggers. But waiting around for the end to come means missing out on all the gains in the meanwhile.
I feel bearish and that everything is overpriced. But I'm not fighting the Fed, or the above that 9k outlined.


Is Schiller's PE even relevant anymore?

I think I'll stick to meme stocks and crypto. At least I get the joke with those two. Regular markets humour goes over my head.

On another thread,there was mention of intrinsic value for stocks. ROL!!!
When you look at Zoom, Tesla???
Fully agree these will have to come down to earth one day but for the time being, as @moXJO says: go for narrative and meme stocks if they trend up.

 

[over9k]

Just had another thought: It's younger/more able bodied people that do all the producing/fixing/unloading/delivering etc of everything and it's young able bodied people that are last on the vaccine rollout list, so we may see a significant pickup in demand from baby boomers wanting to caravan and so forth quite some time before supply can actually catch up.

Hmm.

 

[over9k]

And this just came across the news:



My ears are burning >_>

 

[moXJO]

Just had another thought: It's younger/more able bodied people that do all the producing/fixing/unloading/delivering etc of everything and it's young able bodied people that are last on the vaccine rollout list, so we may see a significant pickup in demand from baby boomers wanting to caravan and so forth quite some time before supply can actually catch up.

Hmm.

Everything you have mentioned rings true. It's hard to see the downside given everything that's about to happen.

What's your thoughts on prices though?
For me, everything looks expensive.

 

[over9k]

Alright it was a nice rebound today but you'll see that absolutely everything started selling off about an hour before close, and it had no correlation with 10 year yields at all:



Translation: The market still has some serious jitters and thus we're unlikely to see a rebound back up to our previous high at the same rate. It will instead be a slow grind.

Classic case of taking the lift down but the stairs up.

 

[over9k]

Linus with a fantastic breakdown of just what's gone on in the semiconductor space. Couldn't have said it better myself

 

[over9k]

Here's Powell & Yellen's hearing:



It's obviously a total snoozefest so we can just go straight to the news articles from the poor journalists that had to watch it & then summarise it and the only noteworthy thing was that Powell just flatly said that he doesn't expect inflation to be large, nor persistent:

Yellen says post-crisis plans will move to infrastructure, taxes

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Tuesday the U.S. economy remains in crisis from the pandemic even as she defended developing plans for future tax increases to pay for new public investments.

www.reuters.com

 

[over9k]

Apparently this has been the fastest bull-bear market flip since the .com bust.


"Maybe the market might have gotten a bit ahead of itself when pricing in the recovery trade"


Nah, you think?

 

[over9k]

And now a container ship has run aground in the suez canal. Let's see how long it takes them to clear it when all the staff, tug boat drivers etc are all off sick with the virus shall we?

Egypt's Suez Canal blocked by huge container ship

A ship the length of four football pitches is wedged across one of the world's busiest trade routes.

www.bbc.com

 

[moXJO]

And now a container ship has run aground in the suez canal. Let's see how long it takes them to clear it when all the staff, tug boat drivers etc are all off sick with the virus shall we?

View attachment 121806View attachment 121805

Egypt's Suez Canal blocked by huge container ship

A ship the length of four football pitches is wedged across one of the world's busiest trade routes.

www.bbc.com

How the hell did they manage that.

 

[over9k]

Good question. Exhaustion from overwork on account of being the only people available because everyone else has the virus?

Working whilst sick WITH the virus?

We'll soon find out.

 

[moXJO]

Good question. Exhaustion from overwork on account of being the only people available because everyone else has the virus?

Working whilst sick WITH the virus?

We'll soon find out.

Captain Schettino wasn't piloting?

 

[over9k]

We'll find out soon enough.

 

[wabullfrog]

And now a container ship has run aground in the suez canal. Let's see how long it takes them to clear it when all the staff, tug boat drivers etc are all off sick with the virus shall we?

View attachment 121806

Egypt's Suez Canal blocked by huge container ship

A ship the length of four football pitches is wedged across one of the world's busiest trade routes.

www.bbc.com

Going to take a while to free it if they are relying on the single excavator at the bow.

 

[moXJO]

Going to take a while to free it if they are relying on the single excavator at the bow.

'Bob's excavations' came in with the cheapest quote.

Your eyesight is insane to pick that up. Or your monitor is to big.

 

[moXJO]

It gets even better

 

[over9k]

Apparently they had some kind of electrical/control system onboard fail whilst in the canal. Reports are saying at least two days to free it.

Here's the last 6 weeks of the r2k to get an idea of the churn in the markets at the moment:



vs wider context:




Will it return to trend like it did after the last huge slump? I have NO idea. It's not like it's correlated with treasury yields or inflation or mercury being in retrograde or anything that we can at least attempt to predict.

I'm kind of tempted to do a two grand challenge where I literally just buy on red days and sell on green days and that's it. Just see if it does any good.

 

[sptrawler]

The latest on the cargo ship, giving the Suez a wedgy.

How to Dislodge a 200,000-Ton Ship From a Canal Wall

When you can’t shift a ship that’s stuck fast into the wall of a canal that’s vital to world trade, there’s only one thing to do: call the salvage guys.

www.bloomberg.com

 

[Dona Ferentes]

When the Suez Canal was deepened in 2009, it became possible for some capesize ships to transit the canal and so changed categories

Ships in this class are bulk carriers, usually transporting coal, ore and other commodity raw materials. The term capesize is not applied to tankers. The average size of a capesize bulker is around 156,000 DWT, although larger ships (normally dedicated to ore transportation) have been built, up to 400,000 DWT. The large dimensions and deep drafts of such vessels mean that only the largest deep-water terminals can accommodate them.

......

so, the one, a vessel loaded with containers not bulk commodities, blocking Suez, Ever Given, is 400 metres long and 59 metres wide, and at 224,000 DWT must be right on the limit. .