Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

Ultimately if we don't manufacture then we're stuffed since there's no long term future digging holes in the ground, running up debt and running down the integrity of institutions as we've been doing. :2twocents

Agree, however manufacturing is not the only answer, we have services and more importantly, we could be a food basin for the world. Digging up dirt is easy, the path ahead will require brains, dirt requires brawn.
 
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A lot of very knowledgeable people keep saying that china's talk is all bluster, and it is - they've caved on absolutely everything that even the relatively weak nations have threatened. Trump & Lighthizer walked all over them.
 
Oh and this is very much still a thing:

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The borders were never going to be reopened, and they won't be until 2022 at the earliest, very possibly 2023.
 
however manufacturing is not the only answer, we have services and more importantly, we could be a food basin for the world. Digging up dirt is easy, the path ahead will require brains
Agreed and something I think is important in this context is to avoid the tendency to look for silver bullets.

Thinking of past economic downturns, that tends to be what happens. Governments come up with some single magic solution that's going to fix everything and it never does.

There's no need to be narrowly focused, it's not as though government needs to command and control everything, and instead it's wiser to go with all things that work. If that's x% manufacturing, y% services, z% agriculture and so on and we've still got a bit of mining and we've got science and so on then that beats trying to pick one big winner and expecting that to fix the lot.

Another problem relating to that "one big solution" approach is that it can't work everywhere or for everyone. The climate differences between the NT and Tas or the population density differences between Vic and WA preclude that single approach.

Then there's the human aspect of it all. Someone with a natural talent in science and maths based things is never going to be much good as a tour guide. Someone with musical talent is wasting their time in a factory. And so on. If we don't have a diverse economy then that of itself will drive a portion of the population to move somewhere else that does offer those things.

Whatever we do though, we have to think smart not brute force that's for sure. :2twocents
 
Some have noted that COVID-19 primarily kills older people who are in poor health anyway. Not entirely but to considerable extent.

Trouble is, that's a pretty good description of much of our economy. Decades behind and limping along.

If we come out of this with a focus on something that isn't on its last legs and which actually has a long term future then the pain will be worth it.

A lot of the destruction economically was always going to happen, this pandemic situation just set the building on fire rather than waiting for it to slowly rot away but it was coming down regardless, our economic situation hasn't been on a sustainable path for a long time now. :2twocents
Sadly it also had many economic collateral damages of bright shiny stars, so the analogy with covid stops there.
All non domestic based businesses just to name a few.only so much video calls can do ...
Ultimately we will reinforce a mining and agricultural based economy...forget it with the refined product and we will loose the top service part: international finance,software,etc
It will not happen overnight but Australians have been prevented from travelling OS for soon a year...this is not happening in Europe, Asia or US...so goid luck to expand create or maintain your international business.
Back to our 3rd world economic model..thanks God immigration is over,less people to share the crumbs with...
 
It will not happen overnight but Australians have been prevented from travelling OS for soon a year...this is not happening in Europe, Asia or US...so goid luck to expand create or maintain your international business.
Agreed this is stuffing pretty much any business that deals in overseas markets apart from bulk commodities. A video call might sustain an existing project but that's about it, you can't actually do the job that way when it requires people on site etc and that forces the client to go to someone who can.

Back to our 3rd world economic model..thanks God immigration is over,less people to share the crumbs with...
Ultimately I think it's going to force a serious resetting of a great many things once reality sinks in.

It has brought forward the day of reckoning but ultimately we've been on an unsustainable path for a long time now. It was always going to end badly, this just moved it forward by a decade or two.
 
Would be nice, not a chance to happen in the real world with our current Qld gov.
Is it practical? Cost of rail for one product and shipping is cheap. You would need something more comprehensive. Maybe it can be linked into the sheep stations? Other mines?
 
Is it practical? Cost of rail for one product and shipping is cheap. You would need something more comprehensive. Maybe it can be linked into the sheep stations? Other mines?
If that was an issue just ship both down south...
But you could have a solar powered electric train network.
Our international advantages for the time being:
Coal iron sun and debt raising...
Let's not waste it..
 
It's an an article of faith that i do not take part in IPOs, but hopefully this one relents enough so as to give a buying opportunity. Been waiting for this one to come to market as a leitmotiv for the eCommerce sector.
If that was an issue just ship both down south...
But you could have a solar powered electric train network.
Our international advantages for the time being:
Coal iron sun and debt raising...
Let's not waste it..
We had a steel industry not long back, I don't see it coming back.
The only way would be if they used renewables, to run electric arc furnaces and locate it in the North of Australia. Then they only have to ship either the coal or the iron ore to a mega processing plant, the problem with all this is no one wants to live up North, let alone work up there. ?
 
We had a steel industry not long back, I don't see it coming back.
The only way would be if they used renewables, to run electric arc furnaces and locate it in the North of Australia. Then they only have to ship either the coal or the iron ore to a mega processing plant, the problem with all this is no one wants to live up North, let alone work up there. ?
You do not need many people, just do fifo:
And people might end up with no choice
 
You do not need many people, just do fifo:
And people might end up with no choice
FIFO isn't sustainable long term, it is only a matter of time before the emissions become the next frontier and that will happen soon when the result of the virus initiated aviation downturn gets published. The left will be all over it. :eek:
 
We had a steel industry not long back, I don't see it coming back.
Sanjeev Gupta (Google will tell you who he is if not familiar) has bought the Whyalla steelworks in SA and has very recently bought the the TEMCO (Tasmanian Electro Metallurgical Co) plant in Tasmania.

He's looking at rebuilding Whyalla to massively scale up production to 10 million tonnes per annum.

Where TEMCO fits into the plan is that it produces ferromanganese, silicomanganese and sinter - all of which are ingredients used in steel in addition to iron ore. TEMCO being the only such producer in this part of the world.

He's got a plan - he didn't make $ billions just doing things randomly. :2twocents
 
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A very different picture to the stock market, which overwhelmingly tracks big business. And, the bigger the business, the more it's gained. Check nyfang out:

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Sanjeev Gupta (Google will tell you who he is if not familiar) has bought the Whyalla steelworks in SA and has very recently bought the the TEMCO (Tasmanian Electro Metallurgical Co) plant in Tasmania.

He's looking at rebuilding Whyalla to massively scale up production to 10 million tonnes per annum.

Where TEMCO fits into the plan is that it produces ferromanganese, silicomanganese and sinter - all of which are ingredients used in steel in addition to iron ore. TEMCO being the only such producer in this part of the world.

He's got a plan - he didn't make $ billions just doing things randomly. :2twocents
Yes I was being sarcastic really, it is ironic when an Indian individual has more faith in the Australian steel industry, than BHP (the BIG AUSTRALIAN) which closed down most of its processing plant and are making a billion dollars by stripping the country of its resources. ?
Ah the clever country.?
The last Australian with any vision for this country was Charlie Court IMO, he made the mining companies build towns where they wanted to mine minerals. He made the companies build value added industry and built a domestic gas supply to Perth from the NW.
In the Eastern States they had a steel industry, they had a vibrant manufacturing industry, that built Australia's living standard.
All we have done in the last 20 years, is ride the wave of growth from that and now that wave is breaking.
We expect an increasing living standard, but no one can explain where it is going to come from,
Twenty years ago Keatings catch cry was the clever country, well 50% of kids now go to uni, but our education standards have dropped.
Competency standards were introduced to improve productivity in the trades, but the standards have dropped, where is this magic improvement going to come from.
IMO when they admit we have made a real mess of things.
 
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COVID is out of control across Europe the US and South America. Cases are rising exponentially again as are hospitalizations and deaths.

The impact on European economies can only worsen. At some stage the markets are also going to react to falling profits and impacts on budgets.
 
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