Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[basilio]

Time will tell, but the article you posted was basically an opinion piece, with very little reasoning behind it IMO.
The drop in immigration could well be blessing in disguise, it will allow some infrastructure money to be spent on productive investment, rather than just being poured into the housing sector to support the ponzi scheme that has been rampant for the last 15 years.

It will allow for more investment in a renewable grid, rather than just struggling to keep up with the increased power demand, that 600,000 extra people per annum add to the existing grid.
It will allow social housing to catch up with demand and reduce the pumping of existing house prices as supply has never been allowed to catch up with demand.

The share market IMO, is reflecting the economy currently prevailing, financials are still down understandably, miners are up understandably and retail is being kept afloat by government spending.
So IMO it is a reflection of where we are at, whether that stays the same when the Government reduces the handouts remains to be seen, but on past performance, I expect some for of stimulus for the financial sector when the transition happens.
Just my opinion, but up to now it has been handled extremely well, I hope it hold up.

I agree with most of your observations SP and theoretically we could invest in quality infrastructure, a renewable energy grid (excellent..) and better social housing with excellent overall results.

Having said that I'm not sure the current Government or the financial institutions give tuppence about such objectives. Traditionally migrant driven real estate development has been the core of our economic growth (even if that "growth" causes more problems than it's worth). That was the reasoning behind the story and it certainly reflects our development parameters since WW2.

I agree that our current share market as well as the economy has been supported by the multi billion dollar support for wages and businesses. So it will be interesting to see what happens when the tap is turned off.

 

[sptrawler]

I agree with most of your observations SP and theoretically we could invest in quality infrastructure, a renewable energy grid (excellent..) and better social housing with excellent overall results.

Having said that I'm not sure the current Government or the financial institutions give tuppence about such objectives. Traditionally migrant driven real estate development has been the core of our economic growth (even if that "growth" causes more problems than it's worth). That was the reasoning behind the story and it certainly reflects our development parameters since WW2.

I agree that our current share market as well as the economy has been supported by the multi billion dollar support for wages and businesses. So it will be interesting to see what happens when the tap is turned off.

Both sides of politics have been pushing for a much larger population base, this virus may well give them a taste of what can be achieved and I think it will change the economic model we have been following.
There are many facets of our economy, that will require time to modify and a pause in population growth may well facilitate the changes required.
Hopefully some of the tribal politics, can be put aside, while Australia develops a sustainable economy.
One thing for sure, neither party has actually done anything, other than follow the well trodden path since the 1970's.

 

[over9k]

What has me worried is what the politicians are going to do to "rebound the economy" or similar such soundbites.

Mass immigration & foreign students were the only things other than mining that were keeping this house of cards going before and I fear they're going to put both in overdrive ala krudd's first year the moment that they're able to.

 

[satanoperca]

All they've done is kick the can down the road. This piper needs to be paid eventually.

But we have been doing that for decades, could you really have thought 5 years ago we would have had close to 0% interest rates, I think the piper is dead and cannot collect.

So lets reflect about what we know about this virus (correct me if I am wrong please):
1. It is worse than the flu which kills lots of people every year, as we have no immunity against it in the short term.
2. Over the duration of say 5 years, will it have increased or decreased the average life expectancy of Australians? Might by less than 2%.
3. Have people/pollies overreacted in fear? Only time will tell
4. Has the path chosen caused more long term damage than the virus to people's wellbeing and the economy? YES
5. Can we stay in the status of immobilization? NO
6. SO WHAT HAVE WE GAINED IN THE LONG TERM - SAY in 3 years time.

PS we have gained something, a crap load of debt.

 

[sptrawler]

6. SO WHAT HAVE WE GAINED IN THE LONG TERM - SAY in 3 years time.

Possibly a reduction in retail duplication, thereby removing the uncompetitive ones.
Possibly a reduction in Sydney/ Melbourne house prices, as demand falls due to reduced immigration.
More low cost housing available, due to building stimulus Federally and State, also State spending on social housing.
Electrical demand plateau, again due to lower immigration, enabling the system to catch up with the deployment of more bulk renewables and storage.
Manufacturing start ups, to supply critical items as per the strategic shortages during the lockdown, mining companies will look at value adding here rather than O/S as is being shown with BHP and nickel.
Some companies will try to onshore critical component manufacture here, as China has flagged uncertainty of supply with its embargoes.
That is just a few of the things that come quickly to mind.
Actually I think a lot will happen in the next 3-5 years, only my opinion though.

 

[SirRumpole]

Time will tell, but the article you posted was basically an opinion piece, with very little reasoning behind it IMO.
The drop in immigration could well be blessing in disguise, it will allow some infrastructure money to be spent on productive investment, rather than just being poured into the housing sector to support the ponzi scheme that has been rampant for the last 15 years.

It will allow for more investment in a renewable grid, rather than just struggling to keep up with the increased power demand, that 600,000 extra people per annum add to the existing grid.
It will allow social housing to catch up with demand and reduce the pumping of existing house prices, as supply has never been allowed to catch up with demand.

The share market IMO, is reflecting the economy currently prevailing, financials are still down understandably, miners are up understandably and retail is being kept afloat by government spending.
So IMO it is a reflection of where we are at, whether that stays the same when the Government reduces the handouts remains to be seen, but on past performance, I expect some for of stimulus for the financial sector when the transition happens.
Just my opinion, but up to now I think it has been handled extremely well, I hope it holds up.

Well said sp.

I would also add that the drop in the immigration Ponzi scheme would reduce the over supply of labour that has resulted in wage stagnation and insecure work over the last few decades and may result in employers having to compete for labour rather than a large pool of unemployed competing for jobs.

Mind you immigration has been driven by business demands for more consumers and more unemployed so they can drive down wages so as soon as the Coalition sees the chance, the brakes will be off and the Ponzi scheme will start again.

 

[over9k]

But we have been doing that for decades, could you really have thought 5 years ago we would have had close to 0% interest rates, I think the piper is dead and cannot collect.

So lets reflect about what we know about this virus (correct me if I am wrong please):
1. It is worse than the flu which kills lots of people every year, as we have no immunity against it in the short term.
2. Over the duration of say 5 years, will it have increased or decreased the average life expectancy of Australians? Might by less than 2%.
3. Have people/pollies overreacted in fear? Only time will tell
4. Has the path chosen caused more long term damage than the virus to people's wellbeing and the economy? YES
5. Can we stay in the status of immobilization? NO
6. SO WHAT HAVE WE GAINED IN THE LONG TERM - SAY in 3 years time.

PS we have gained something, a crap load of debt.

My point exactly. We're due for an unbelievable amount of pain and I'm very concerned as to what the politicians are going to do to attempt to avoid it.

 

[satanoperca]

1. Possibly a reduction in retail duplication, thereby removing the uncompetitive ones.
2. Possibly a reduction in Sydney/ Melbourne house prices, as demand falls due to reduced immigration.
3. More low cost housing available, due to building stimulus Federally and State, also State spending on social housing.
4. Electrical demand plateau, again due to lower immigration, enabling the system to catch up with the deployment of more bulk renewables and storage.
5. Manufacturing start ups, to supply critical items as per the strategic shortages during the lockdown, mining companies will look at value adding here rather than O/S as is being shown with BHP and nickel.
6. Some companies will try to onshore critical component manufacture here, as China has flagged uncertainty of supply with its embargoes.
7. That is just a few of the things that come quickly to mind.
8. Actually I think a lot will happen in the next 3-5 years, only my opinion though.

Don't mean to be rude and so it is easier to follow have numbered your comments.
1. That is natural market forces
2. That is a big ask, don't think taking on over $200B in debt was an answer to housing affordability
3. So you think that the govnuts throwing more debt to everyone will help in the long term?
4. Agree with
5. You are kidding yourself, manufacturing in this country is dead, noone will invest in it, ever. As to the value adding, no they will not, the costs is way to high. We somewhat care about people and the environment, making it impossible to compete against countries that do not.
6. China is just one country, and if you we upto date with manufacturing, you would know that many companies were already diversifying to other countries, away from China. Nothing has changed

8. Yes WW111, high youth unemployment, Automation, AI and more restrictions to citizens, no freedom of movement etc

 

[sptrawler]

Mind you immigration has been driven by business demands for more consumers and more unemployed so they can drive down wages so as soon as the Coalition sees the chance, the brakes will be off and the Ponzi scheme will start again.

I know you do the choreography, for The Labor cheer squad, but Rudd did say he want 50million. ?

The other one that comes to mind on Rudds watch, was the closing of the BP solar panel manufacturing plant in Sydney in November 2008, but hey who wants to finger point.

BP shuts Sydney solar plant

BP will shift solar-cell manufacturing offshore to lower costs, leading to a loss of 200 jobs.

www.smh.com.au

? ?

 

[over9k]

I know you do the choreography, for The Labor cheer squad, but Rudd did say he want 50million. ?

The other one that comes to mind on Rudds watch, was the closing of the BP solar panel manufacturing plant in Sydney in November 2008, but hey who wants to finger point.

BP shuts Sydney solar plant

BP will shift solar-cell manufacturing offshore to lower costs, leading to a loss of 200 jobs.

www.smh.com.au

? ?

Being against the libs is in no way an endorsement of labor.

The libs are just labor with a few tax cuts at this point.

 

[over9k]

And as if on cue, international finance has started trying to get the migration floodgates reopened:

 

[sptrawler]

Being against the libs is in no way an endorsement of labor.

The libs are just labor with a few tax cuts at this point.

Yes, I was just having a joke with Rumpies post, it wasn't directed at yourself, no offence intended appologies if any taken

 

[sptrawler]

And as if on cue, international finance has started trying to get the migration floodgates reopened:

View attachment 113404

I personally hope immigration can be curtailed for an extended period in Australia, the economic growth model it was based on has been blown apart by the fallout from the virus.
The economy requires re configuring IMO and it needs to happen quickly, I don't think population growth supports that, way too many resources are wasted to facilitate consumer growth.
This costs a lot of money, which actually only pays dividends in the service sector.

 

[over9k]

Problem is that if migration is driving your economy, you're f***ed without it.

There's literally no way to oppose migration without also supporting a recession, which is political suicide unless enough of the country wakes up to the reality of and then also wants what needs to be done, neither of which have a snowball's hope in hell of actually occurring.

The combination of evil plus useful idiots is unassailable. The only thing we can do is hope to make money off of what is inevitably going to happen. I've already eyed of a renovation-ready 6 bedroom place to pack with foreign students in a couple of years' time.


If I had my way the borders would remain permanently closed and the entire university system defunded, but there's too many people with too much money in real estate speculation for the politicians to do anything other than continue driving the ponzi scheme.

 

[SirRumpole]

Yes, I was just having a joke with Rumpies post, it wasn't directed at yourself, no offence intended appologies if any taken

No it was directed to me you @#$%^&

Anyway I don't have to agree with Rudd on everything, and in this case I don't.

 

[noirua]

Sweden COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Sweden Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

Sweden 2020 population is estimated at 10,099,265 people at mid year according to UN data. Sweden population is equivalent to 0.13% of the total world population. Sweden ranks number 91 in the list of countries (and dependencies) by population. The population density in Sweden is 25 per Km² (64 people per mi2).

Borrowing in inflation-linked bonds and in foreign currency also increases. The central government debt is estimated to increase from SEK 1,113 billion at the end of 2019 to SEK 1,556 billion at the end of 2021. As a share of GDP, central government debt increases from 22 percent to 31 percent. 19 May 2020

---

Australia COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Australia Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

The current population of Australia is 25,586,239 as of Saturday, October 17, 2020, based on Worldometer elaboration of the latest United Nations data. Australia 2020 population is estimated at 25,499,884 people at mid year according to UN data.


As at 6 March 2020, the gross Australian government debt was $573.1 billion. As at 11 April 2017, the gross Australian government debt was $551.75 billion. The government debt fluctuates from week to week depending on government receipts, general outlays and large-sum outlays.

 

[Smurf1976]

As to the value adding, no they will not, the costs is way to high

There are people actually doing it or spending serious $ of their own money examining the options. Steel in particular.

 

[satanoperca]

There are people actually doing it or spending serious $ of their own money examining the options. Steel in particular.

Who, show me a company that has done it and kept at it for more than 3 years. It cannot be done in Australia.

Even look at our best tech companies, they all offshore, why, cost.

 

[Smurf1976]

The economy requires re configuring IMO and it needs to happen quickly

Some have noted that COVID-19 primarily kills older people who are in poor health anyway. Not entirely but to considerable extent.

Trouble is, that's a pretty good description of much of our economy. Decades behind and limping along.

If we come out of this with a focus on something that isn't on its last legs and which actually has a long term future then the pain will be worth it.

A lot of the destruction economically was always going to happen, this pandemic situation just set the building on fire rather than waiting for it to slowly rot away but it was coming down regardless, our economic situation hasn't been on a sustainable path for a long time now.

 

[Smurf1976]

Who, show me a company that has done it and kept at it for more than 3 years. It cannot be done in Australia.

Liberty Steel Group wouldn't be putting the effort into steelmaking and assembling a vertically integrated industry within Australia if they didn't have plans to stick at it. That's one example for a relatively low tech but important manufacturing industry.

For something higher tech, well every ship that has won the Hales Trophy for the fastest transatlantic crossing during the past 30 years has something in common. They were all built by Incat in Tasmania.

Ultimately if we don't manufacture then we're stuffed since there's no long term future digging holes in the ground, running up debt and running down the integrity of institutions as we've been doing.