Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[Knobby22]

Keep in mind that these figures only count the observed/identified cases. As we've seen masses of evidence for, most people don't get symptoms at all or don't get symptoms which are even significant enough for people to bother seeking help or get tested. When people are mass tested, unknown cases are found. Most people aren't getting tested, thus, we know there are many many many people with the disease uncounted in the statistics.

On the other hand, if someone dies of it, they are very much noticed. A death is always something people realise happened. At the moment, deaths are all being tested. Even if someone is literally on their death bed about to die after a multi year battle with cancer, they are often being counted as a virus death if they happened to have the virus.

Taking both these factors into account and considering that together they multiply, the real figures of the danger are far, far less. We can't get an exact figure on them because it's impossible to get a numerical figure on exactly how many people have it and are not identified, but by all accounts the number is large.

Whether people who die of it really should be counted as deaths is more a case of shades of grey. If a perfectly healthy 40 year old caught it and died, sure, that would be black and white virus death (we haven't actually had even one such case in Australia and by all accounts such cases are extraordinarily rare). If someone is literally just about to die of cancer and they catch the disease just before their death, or if they die of a car accident while infected, in reality they did not die of the virus and it's realistically black and white (they were going to die anyway), but there are at least some cases like these which are being counted as virus cases.

Then there are shades of grey such as an elderly person of 94 years of age who can't walk or live unassisted and is not long for this world, who died of the virus, but presumably only had a few more senescent months left at best. This is a very typical scenario among the deaths, and these all get recorded as virus deaths, but in reality should scare no one (and incidentally, these people would be better off without the restrictions because I would argue that it would be nicer to die today among family and loved ones rather than spend 5 more months isolated from anyone who cares about you while bedridden and miserable in isolation, then dying alone).

After all of this, the number of deaths of people mostly unhealthy in their 60s and 70s who possibly would have survived without the virus are relatively few. It's worth noting that obesity has a much higher incidence of both death and lifelong negative health impacts than the virus, and we could save far, far more lives and make people much more healthy with far less effort and money and zero net negative economic impact by simply doing more to encourage people to have healthier lifestyles which would eliminate these comorbidities such as obesity, heart disease, type 2 diabetes, etc. But ignoring that, this category of people are the only ones worth paying particular attention to when looking at the big picture, assuming we care about keeping people healthy and alive.

The last category are the people who die or have long term affects despite being otherwise healthy and under 60. These are extremely rare and by any reasonable measure, their number is completely and utterly dwarfed by the number of deaths which will be caused through suicide, poverty, etc etc, and let's not forget that depression which is now epidemic in Melbourne and rapidly increasing across the country, is often a chronic/lifelong disease once it has occurred, alcoholism is a serious health issue which kills people, it takes about 60 days for a behaviour to become an established habit according to psychologists and alcohol consumption is skyrocketing (as is illicit drug use, which was as predictable as anything ever could have been), suicide, etc etc. Not to mention loss of employment etc.

Have a look an and read how they work it out. It's not just observed cases. Go to the site. I highly recommend at least looking at it. If you only counted observed cases the figures would be a lot worse.

Type in worldometer and take a look.

 

[wayneL]

Here's a brutal economic measure for you:

Old farts are massively economically costly. The more of them that are bumped off, the less the burden on the healthcare system.

Harsh. Brutally harsh... Nobody likes the idea of granny drowning in her own sputum.

But economically accurate.

Somewhere there is a balance between ruining the future of the young, Vs lengthening poor quality of life of the old.

Let's look at things another way.

In other situations, the old sacrifice the lives of the young... wars, anyone?

Here my schtick and I will die on this hill:

Mrs and I are getting on, and we will gladly risk our lives for the continuing liberty of the young... and we don't even have our own children.

Those of you with kids should think very deeply about that.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

OK , grab yer catether bags and follow me a bit further. Don't drip.

There has been little or no contraction in mining activity in WA. or Queensland since the beginning of the pestilence.

FIFO still operates.

As far as I know as many large mines as possible cohort their fifo's so that the "white team" e.g never physically meet the "blue team" on site, and there have been no outbreaks in mining operations in either state.

A large mining company is as close as we in the West can ever get to a totalitarian model, and it shows in the continuing export figures of copper, other metals and coal.

The governments of WA and Queensland though not as touchy/feely as Victoria and NSW, know what matters to their economy.

gg

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Don't worry you there at the back, Matron will be along with your Mogadon shortly. Just don't drip.

Tourism has been hammered both from overseas and domestically. Queensland is weathering it better than most.

On a recent trip to retrieve some buried gold bar out west I was surprised how many grey nomads were on the road. I don't like tourism as a sector nor tourists, but I do sympathise with those whose livelihood depends on it.

gg

 

[SirRumpole]

Tourism has been hammered both from overseas and domestically. Queensland is weathering it better than most.

Should be a great chance for those who can go bush to do it, very little chance of running into foreign tourists that you have to dig out of the mud or rescue from swollen creeks.

 

[againsthegrain]

Should be a great chance for those who can go bush to do it, very little chance of running into foreign tourists that you have to dig out of the mud or rescue from swollen creeks.

Since the start everybody keeps saying how its crashing how bad its getting yet everything is chugging along as usual.
Had a look at house prices in Melbourne, nothing has changed. All the handouts are extended until next year. As much as it should be happening for some reason I can't see it happening. Sa is already starting to bring in international students. Things going back to normal and Australia will fluke it like always I have a feeling.

 

[moXJO]

Since the start everybody keeps saying how its crashing how bad its getting yet everything is chugging along as usual.
Had a look at house prices in Melbourne, nothing has changed. All the handouts are extended until next year. As much as it should be happening for some reason I can't see it happening. Sa is already starting to bring in international students. Things going back to normal and Australia will fluke it like always I have a feeling.

Has me scratching my head. Prices went up my way. I thought after the gfc- give it time and its going to tank. That was what? 13 years ago.
The only thing that tanked ended up being gold.
That and the US dollar.

 

[Sdajii]

How do you come to that conclusion ?

The official statistics unambiguously demonstrating it.

I doubt if you have sufficient access to individual case details to make any assumption about whether people in that age range would have survived or not, and to what age ? There are a lot of people with comorbidities that are treatable who live long and productive lives. The cure rate for most common cancers is improving and things like asthma are quite treatable but the person would be under severe risk if they got covid.

You say this like the information isn't out there. I didn't mention asthma, I wouldn't have because it's not relevant. It's not generally fatal, so it doesn't support my case. The case I referred to about the 'COVID death' involved a person who was undeniably terminally ill with no chance of recovery after a two year battle with cancer, and just happened to be infected with the virus before he died. There are many such cases and any objective person can see that since cancer is a very common comorbidity and the types of cancers which generally kill people are involved, those people were going to die anyway, at least a huge percentage (the majority).

The effects of depression due to lockdowns can't be denied, but treatment is available and the bottom line is that we are all in the same boat and we can help each other out.

Your double standards are well demonstrated here. The disease can be treated and 'we can all help each other out' applies to anything, including the virus. The reality is that depression is a very serious illness. There was a public awareness campaign about mental illness in Australia which has strangely become far less prevalent and very very different this year. The reality is that depression does tend to have permanent or long lasting effects, unlike this virus which tends to be cured completely without long term complications. Depression is a severe and destructive disease for all people who get it. COVID is a mild, often completely asymptomatic disease for most people who get it. Depression does kill a significant percentage of people who get it. 'We can help each other' doesn't change the reality that it harms and kills people. It is not an excuse to cause this problem in people.

We are not all in the same boat. This is another of the meaningless catch phrases being thrown around. People in Melbourne are more or less under house arrest. All of them. People in other states are basically free. Some people are getting better treatment than others. Some have more money than others. Some qualify for different benefits. Some by sheer luck happened to be in different circumstances at the time these restrictions were imposed. It is not helpful or true to say we are all in the same boat. Some people have depression and will kill themselves because they don't have family or friends to care from them. Many of those will kill themselves because they are unable to access people who care for them because of the restrictions which prevent it. They are not in the same boat as those who are able to access loved ones.

Some people are more prone to alcoholism than others, and some are exposed to those pressures more than others. I've seen several friends develop severe addiction problems this year, including at least one I have little doubt will die an early death from it; it has been a shocking thing to observe. In this area, before this year, I had never seen anyone at the local shops have any sort of violence or crazy outburst incident or anything similar. I'm now seeing it several times per week, where people are screaming at each other or just screaming incoherently in apparently random directions. Someone I know called an ambulance because they saw someone had collapse in public and was unable to stand (they had apparent drunk a dangerous amount), they waited until the ambulance arrived, the paramedics asked the man if he usually drank, he said no, they asked why he did it that day, he said "I'm just so sad". I'm hearing so many first hand accounts like this and observing so much with my own eyes, in areas where I've literally never seen anything like it before. This is the stuff the media is turning a blind eye to. I don't know anyone in Australia who has had the virus, I don't know anyone who personally knows anyone who has had it in Australia, but I have seen so many cases of people being harmed by the lockdowns, whether it's domestic violence (police callouts are utterly through the roof as you'd entirely expect), loss of work/business, depression (very often a lifelong problem once it has started), substance abuse or the many other issues.

We are not all in the same boat. I see some people suffering far more than others, some people affected far more than others. All things considered I'm personally doing quite well, I've saved more money this year than most people would in a normal year, and more than I have for the last two or three years, and that's after losing almost literally everything I had around March (literally down to my clothes, computer, books, virtually all my worldly possessions, business, money... ). Not everyone is as resilient as I am, plenty of people are far worse off despite suffering far less disruption to their lives, and there are others who have suffered as much as I have or more. I imagine if I already had a drinking habit or something, this year would have destroyed me. Some people do have that. You clearly are not in the same boat as many people I am observing. It's very easy for you to be sitting there comfortably saying we are all in the same boat, from your far more comfortable boat, lacking compassion for those in a leaky canoe, raft, or those people who are sinking who you ignore the existence of.

 

[Smurf1976]

The reality is that depression is a very serious illness.

I know 3 people who've gone through serious depression. Well, three that I realise have gone through it, there may well be others.

One turned out well, one not so well, one is no longer living.

It's an area which needs a major rethink of approach in my view since far to many are either not picked up as being a problem at all or are inappropriately dealt with in a manner which is at best ineffective and at worst adds to the problem.

I'm not sure that the pandemic is going to break anyone who's mentally fine to start with but if the cracks are there then it's going to open them up in a big way almost certainly.

 

[qldfrog]

https://www.news.com.au/world/coron...h/news-story/0ebf5993691da3ffb612438ecf8bd6c3
So whether true or false, could the West be using covid as a reason to justify a hot war on China?
That would explain the unreasonable media barrage, restrictions etc.
Basically create a man made crisis, raise propaganda, ensure fear anger and set a dictatorial gov to smooth any dissidence then embark in old fashioned warfare?
Been looking at what conspiracy theory is the right one, well could be it...

If this is the case, yeap gold is the way, and definitively not in any Australian or png asian assets

 

[qldfrog]

And now for some figures on the impacts of our covid blamed restrictions
https://www.news.com.au/travel/trav...a/news-story/605aea8cb8460e6c823bd72ae38b44ac
5 billions a month loss for tourism..thanks dear leaders.we are all so grateful

 

[wayneL]

https://www.news.com.au/world/coron...h/news-story/0ebf5993691da3ffb612438ecf8bd6c3
So whether true or false, could the West be using covid as a reason to justify a hot war on China?
That would explain the unreasonable media barrage, restrictions etc.
Basically create a man made crisis, raise propaganda, ensure fear anger and set a dictatorial gov to smooth any dissidence then embark in old fashioned warfare?
Been looking at what conspiracy theory is the right one, well could be it...

If this is the case, yeap gold is the way, and definitively not in any Australian or png asian assets

I listened to an interview Chris Irons did with Danielle DiMartino Booth and she highlighted a number of hot war buttons that are currently itching to be pressed (I posted it somewhere here), so your hythesis regarding the Covid angle just might not be too long a bow to draw. The attitude of Oz may be supporting that too.

It certainly seems to be getting tense around Taiwan and SC Sea.

 

[PZ99]

Whether it's true or not it all fits in nicely with the hundred year plan

 

[Junior]

As I said in the very post you quoted and were responding to, if you want to assume that it was imported somehow, you have to accept that unless all international trade of goods is all but stopped, the virus is going to come back anyway, lockdowns will continue to be necessary indefinitely, and there can be no resumption of a normal way of life anyway. Given what we know, it is far more likely that it was silently lingering in the population, unnoticed (hardly surprising since most people get no symptoms or very mild symptoms, and if you don't think a bit of a cough is something to be scared of, you won't be scared just like literally every other time you've ever had a very mild cough).

I haven't made any comment about lockdowns or restrictions.

My point is, the evidence is very clear that the virus is not so mild, that it could circulate for 100 days without anyone noticing in Auckland, as you are positing. They have been testing for it every day and everyone is hyper-aware of this thing, it would have been picked up far sooner than that, and there would have been many hospitalisations if it had been spreading for so long. Again, look at what happened in New York, or parts of Italy back in March. The virus is real, and people get very sick from it.

 

[satanoperca]

The tide is still in with the economy:
1. Flooded with govnuts cash, JobSeeker and Jobkeeper
2. Govnuts business loans
3. Bank amenities on loans
4. Super withdrawals

Once the tide ebbs and starts to recede, November with the possible low tide in March, we will really see the true economic impact of this virus and govnuts intervention.

 

[sptrawler]

I haven't made any comment about lockdowns or restrictions.

My point is, the evidence is very clear that the virus is not so mild, that it could circulate for 100 days without anyone noticing in Auckland, as you are positing. They have been testing for it every day and everyone is hyper-aware of this thing, it would have been picked up far sooner than that, and there would have been many hospitalisations if it had been spreading for so long. Again, look at what happened in New York, or parts of Italy back in March. The virus is real, and people get very sick from it.

It could quite easily be a person becoming re infected, if the antibodies the body produces leave quickly, as suspected.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Sectors of small biz are struggling

"Companies across all industries were now waiting an average of 44 days for payment for services – up from 14 days in 2019.

“That is really the leading indicator of delinquency, the first thing that we see when we see a debtor is heading to administration, " said Patrick Coghlan , CEO of CreditorWatch

Professor Jason Harris from the University of Sydney said the relaxation of the insolvency laws was “kicking the can down the road”, while Small Business and Family Enterprise Ombudsman Kare Carnell has warned of an “insolvency tsunami” once the laws are retightened.

Professor Harris from the University of Sydney said some businesses were using the “hibernation period” to purposely run down the assets of their companies;

“(It) creates the clear opportunity for what we might call dodgy pre-insolvency advisers, dodgy phoenix operators, who can be basically strip the assets of a company over that six month period and then when the protection period ends, they can hand off effectively a hollowed-out shell to a liquidator, knowing full well that the liquidator won’t have any assets in which to conduct proper investigations or take enforcement action,” he said

and it must be a tricky call; spend and hope, or give it all away:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-17/nsw-small-business-cost-of-being-covid-safe/12559734

 

[Sdajii]

I know 3 people who've gone through serious depression. Well, three that I realise have gone through it, there may well be others.

One turned out well, one not so well, one is no longer living.

This is only a sample size of three and the death rate is not anything like 33%, but this is a fairly good representation of what depression does. Depression does cause ongoing problems for the rest of people's lives once they've experienced it. It does change the brain in a very tangible way, and often this can not be reversed. Suicide isn't the only way that depression kills people; it causes people to cease wanting to do anything to help themselves, or anything at all, even eating, drinking, going to the toilet etc becomes a massive challenge. Clearly this can lead to malnutrition, poor health, homelessness, etc etc, which can lead to death in ways other than suicide. For most people it results in a dramatic reduction in quality of life. A few fortunate ones do make complete recoveries.

I would absolutely positively prefer someone I cared about get this virus than clinical depression. Depression is a far, far worse disease for the vast majority of people. We are clearly causing depression in a huge number of people. This aspect alone is likely to be worse than the virus, even ignoring the overall community picture with the economy, loss of liberty, etc etc... but, we do still have the issue of destroying the economy, etc etc.

I'm not sure that the pandemic is going to break anyone who's mentally fine to start with but if the cracks are there then it's going to open them up in a big way almost certainly.

I've definitely seen it personally, at least in people who you'd never have expected it to happen to. Needless to say, I only know a tiny, tiny percentage of the total population of Australia, and if I've seen it, there are countless more examples out there.

If you want to cause depression, you couldn't find a better way to do it than removing someone's livelihood/vocation and their ability to socialise. Social isolation is probably the biggest cause of depression. Poverty is just the icing on the cake. Removal of freedom is another big one. We are serving people up the biggest depression cocktail which anyone could have written a recipe for. Melbourne is going to be a mentally dysfunctional city for decades.

 

[Sdajii]

I haven't made any comment about lockdowns or restrictions.

My point is, the evidence is very clear that the virus is not so mild, that it could circulate for 100 days without anyone noticing in Auckland, as you are positing. They have been testing for it every day and everyone is hyper-aware of this thing, it would have been picked up far sooner than that, and there would have been many hospitalisations if it had been spreading for so long. Again, look at what happened in New York, or parts of Italy back in March. The virus is real, and people get very sick from it.

There actually are examples of it lurking in populations undetected for this long. To say that it spread quickly in New York or Italy so it can't have not spread similarly somewhere else is very easy to disprove simply by looking at the fact that it doesn't spread at an equal rate in all situations, and doesn't affect all demographics in the same way. If it did, we'd see the exact same pattern in all cases. We know that's not the case. If this virus is in a nursing home it doesn't behave in the same way that it does in a primary school. If it is put into a high density city in a culture of poor hygiene, it doesn't spread in the same way it does in a low density population where they are prone to washing their hands. Incidentally, New Zealand doesn't have a high population density and as you point out, they are practicing extreme hygiene and taking particularly extreme precautions with the elderly/vulnerable, which means there were the perfect conditions for a low level existence of the virus sitting around undetected.

The virus is real, you don't need to tell me that. Some people do get sick from it, you don't need to tell me that, but you need to understand that those two facts are not the whole story, and alone, those two facts are misleading. Another two facts are that most people get little to no symptoms, and the people most likely to be exposed to it are young people who are not at significant risk.

 

[satanoperca]

I'm not sure that the pandemic is going to break anyone who's mentally fine to start with

You want a wager on that?

Firstly define mentally fine?

I think you will find, that it is going to break a lot of people who have never had to face the consequences of depression.

Myself, well, I have had to fight depression for over 29years, every single day, since contracting encephalitis.

It is just part of my life, but I do not underestimate the consequences to someone's wellbeing if they have never had to deal with it. Mine is biological, this virus is creating an environmental depression. ie loss of income, inability to socialize, being alone, the feeling of helplessness.

Both are difficult to treat but are manageable if support is available, in most cases, unfortunately, mine is not, as the medical fraternity do not have enough evidence to support those with a mental disorder and an acquired brain injury.